Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Rholk]

They are reaching baghdad ali-levels of messaging

 

[Armbars]

That was the stated plan. That never changed imo. ( lots of people will disagree with my assessment though ) But it's a good way for Ukraine and nato to " win " and declare victory. Just like everyone is going to.

But it's not clear at this point what the strategy is. Prior to this claim of focusing on the Donbas I got the impression the Russian forces were knocking on the door of Kiev. Look at the state of Mariupol.

I don't think I've ever been so hesitant on the outcome of an armed conflict before. And never read as much in accurate information either.

One thing I'm confident of is Putin and his inner circle completely underestimated the Ukrainian response and their capabilities. Even if we took the most lowest estimate of Rus losses you'd have to imagine there's eventually going to be some serious outcry from the Russian people when the dust settles. You can pamper people with propaganda for a while, but when the sons aren't coming home the noise will only get louder.

 

[Yotsuya]

So Russians are attacking city of Tšernihiv north of Kiev and shelling civilian neighbourhoods. They have blown up the bride that leads to south. They are using civilians casualties to draw Ukrainian forces for desperate pursue?

 

[Armbars]

Two of Putin's stated aims were the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. How does dicktucking and running away from keiv all the way back to the east complete these aims?

Were they, lol.
Is that part of the propaganda they used on the Russian people? I doubt Russian interest in Ukraine was genuinely because a few nitwits are Nazis, but its a good story for the gullible loyal fans back home.

 

[Anewt]

But it's not clear at this point what the strategy is. Prior to this claim of focusing on the Donbas I got the impression the Russian forces were knocking on the door of Kiev. Look at the state of Mariupol.

I don't think I've ever been so hesitant on the outcome of an armed conflict before. And never read as much in accurate information either.

One thing I'm confident of is Putin and his inner circle completely underestimated the Ukrainian response and their capabilities. Even if we took the most lowest estimate of Rus losses you'd have to imagine there's eventually going to be some serious outcry from the Russian people when the dust settles. You can pamper people with propaganda for a while, but when the sons aren't coming home the noise will only get louder.

Donbas becomes independent of Ukraine. Putin gets what he wanted. Ukraine gets a lot more military equipment and cash. Nato buys more weapons from USA. USA makes bank

Putin claims victory in getting donbas.. Ukraine claims victory in holdingUkraine. Nato says it justifys their existence. Biden takes credit for no ww3.

Everyone wins bar the regular people

My post 2 weeks ago.. I still lean that way.. could be completely wrong... shrug

donbas " independent " and Crimea Russian.

 

[SanchoMF]

I know it is unimaginable and I could understand why someone would say this but think about it for a second. If you had enough power-fire to do it? Will it not be easy taking out the mother load and then return to pick up the scattered children states spread around Europe without much chellenge..

How will you fight WW3 from their perspective? Would you go for the resourceful supplier of the smaller states or the smaller states constantly being re-supplied by the resourceful element. Hence destroying the US will mean by default the fall of Europe

I’m sorry, but this doesn’t sound like a likely scenario at all.

 

[MeatheadMike]

If this is indeed the focus of Russia’s approach, then the emphasis on Russia‘s ability to take major cities as a metric of success will have been an analytical error, as Russia appears more intent on pinning Ukrainian forces in cities like Kharkiv while it bypasses them

Is Kiev a major city? What would you call sending troops to threaten a city that the goal of isn't to capture? I use feint.

If they had made easy gains in Kiev would they have taken advantage? Undoubtedly but I still don't believe that was the goal.. as for reasons I've stated. Are you really shocked that Putin/ Russia would throw lives away on a feint?


I could easily be wrong. But your comment on no military analysis believing Kiev wasn't and isn't a goal is incorrect.

Actually some go further and believe the demilitarisation could be completed with still armed defence in Kiev.

Not quite sure I buy that definition of " demilitarisation " personally


Viewed in conjunction, these advances present a troubling picture whereby the Ukrainian forces opposite Donetsk and Luhansk are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of the Dnieper. If this is indeed the focus of Russia’s approach, then the emphasis on Russia's ability to take major cities as a metric of success will have been an analytical error, as Russia appears more intent on pinning Ukrainian forces in cities like Kharkiv while it bypasses them. Indeed, preparations for an amphibious assault on Odessa may have been a feint, given that the ground forces such an assault could have linked up with appear to be moving north.


A strategy of exterior lines presents challenges too, however, it lends itself to some Russian strengths and is closer in theory to Russian assessments of modern conflict. As observed by Alex Vershinin, Russian logistics are not designed to operate at range from their railheads, and they lack the airlift to overcome short-term deficiencies. Their truck fleet is also limited in its ability to support Russian operations and could be overwhelmed if Russian forces advanced more than 90 km from their staging posts. Exterior lines can address logistics problems by requisitioning and looting the needed supplies from the population, which has been observed in Ukraine. In addition, exterior lines have enabled the Russian army to divide Ukraine’s forces, leading to the diversion of some critical resources such as air defence systems to Kyiv and leaving frontline forces exposed. Using exterior lines, Russia is also better able to concentrate forces to overwhelm and defeat Ukrainian units at critical points. Furthermore, any successes can be reinforced, bringing local numerical superiority that the Ukrainians are unable to match. The movement of elements from the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade into the south of Ukraine is early evidence of this.

Altogether, this suggests that Russia has deliberately pursued a strategy of exterior lines in the hope of dividing and thereby weakening Ukrainian resistance. As stated above, the Russian army has positioned itself to defeat Ukraine’s military in line with the goal of ‘demilitarisation’.

Eh still doesn’t make sense. If Kyiv was all a diversion, then why did the Russians even engage them at all there? They could have just kept forces further outside of the region and the simple threat of an advance would have been enough to keep substantial UA forces in Kyiv without sustaining any Russian casualties.

The simplest explanation is they thought they could capture it easily but failed.

 

[Anewt]

Eh still doesn’t make sense. If Kyiv was all a diversion, then why did the Russians even engage them at all there? They could have just kept forces further outside of the region and the simple threat of an advance would have been enough to keep substantial UA forces in Kyiv without sustaining any Russian casualties.

The simplest explanation is they thought they could capture it easily but failed.

The distance Ukraine pushed out / were willing to defend with force I think shocked the shite out of Russia. Hence I don't think it went to plan at all. If they had attempted to dig in ( as they are now I believe from some reports) I think Ukraine would have tried to create a corridor for their forces in the east.

I think Russian troops in the east have met up and that's no longer a big concern to them.

Plenty of analysts stated there wasn't enough troops for Russia to completely encircle Kiev. But it's been quite a few weeks now and by all accounts Ukraine is becoming far more aggressive in attempting to encircle the Russians.

Without engaging I think they would have pushed out far quicker.

But that's just my opinion

 

[mkess101]

Donbas becomes independent of Ukraine. Putin gets what he wanted. Ukraine gets a lot more military equipment and cash. Nato buys more weapons from USA. USA makes bank

Putin claims victory in getting donbas.. Ukraine claims victory in holdingUkraine. Nato says it justifys their existence. Biden takes credit for no ww3.

Everyone wins bar the regular people

My post 2 weeks ago.. I still lean that way.. could be completely wrong... shrug

donbas " independent " and Crimea Russian.

My take is that you're underestimating a bit the ability of hubris to override intelligence. Anyone screaming "Putin is a moron" is using hyperbole and can't actually mean it. Even Putin's most ardent critics that know him well say he's shrewd and far from inept. But I've said it numerous times: History is LITTERED with brilliant people taking massive falls because their hubris overrode their common sense and analytical skills to the point of delusion.

I'm guessing too of course, but I think we're at the very least approaching that with Putin here. I think he can still reign it in and find a way out of this while saving a little face, but it's gonna have to be sooner rather than later.

 

[Anewt]

My take is that you're underestimating a bit the ability of hubris to override intelligence. Anyone screaming "Putin is a moron" is using hyperbole and can't actually mean it. Even Putin's most ardent critics that know him well say he's shrewd and far from inept. But I've said it numerous times: History is LITTERED with brilliant people taking massive falls because their hubris overrode their common sense and analytical skills to the point of delusion.

I'm guessing too of course, but I think we're at the very least approaching that with Putin here. I think he can still reign it in and find a way out of this while saving a little face, but it's gonna have to be sooner rather than later.

Yup but I won't consider Russia getting donbas and Crimea a big " fail " to me.

The no NATO is a done deal imo. The neutrality of Ukraine I think will happen. Denazification won't. Demilitarisation? I'd say unlikely as I don't consider a armed population " Demilitarised " heh

 

[idrankyourbeer]

The article does not claim that the attack on Kiyv was a feint. You do not commit - and lose - major amounts of personnel and material to a feint.

its all part of the plan. vladdy's playing some 5D chess. this ones just a training exercise anyways. just wait for the real invasion!

 

[mkess101]

Yup but I won't consider Russia getting donbas and Crimea a big " fail " to me.

The no NATO is a done deal imo. The neutrality of Ukraine I think will happen. Denazification won't. Demilitarisation? I'd say unlikely as I don't consider a armed population " Demilitarised " heh

If he gets those things I'd lean toward agreement. Trying to take the pulse of the Ukrainians is tough...but for now they're still whipping the double bird at him and don't seem keen to give up any land. I agree when it comes to the "no NATO" pledge I guess...although they will want strong language in whatever treaty is proposed that voids the agreement if Russia does x,y,z. And that's again where Putin's hubris might come into play. He may demand the Ukrainians sign the treaty with zero qualifications and they may tell him to shove it.

It's more complex than I think some people are thinking it is.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

Mutinous Russian troops ran over their own commander, say western officials

Western officials have said they believe a Russian commander was run over by mutinous forces during the fighting in Ukraine, in a sign of what they described as the “morale challenges” faced by the invading forces.

They highlighted – and repeated – reports from earlier this week from a Ukrainian journalist that a colonel of the 37th separate guards motor rifle brigade was run over by a tank. Some reports said he had died of his injuries.

One official said they believed that the brigade commander was “killed by his own troops” as “a consequence of the scale of losses that had been taken by his brigade” in the bitter fighting.

However, while there was some evidence to corroborate the claim that the commander had been run over, it was less clear whether, as the western officials claimed, the colonel had died. On Friday night, they partially retracted the claim in the light of conflicting evidence on social media. They said they were seeking to clarify whether he was alive or dead – and said that the key point was that he was a victim of a mutiny, not whether he had been killed or not.

continues on....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ny-commander-ukraine-report-western-officials


is this legit? it's nice to see things are all going as planned for big daddy vladdy

 

[Anewt]

If he gets those things I'd lean toward agreement. Trying to take the pulse of the Ukrainians is tough...but for now they're still whipping the double bird at him and don't seem keen to give up any land. I agree when it comes to the "no NATO" pledge I guess...although they will want strong language in whatever treaty is proposed that voids the agreement if Russia does x,y,z. And that's again where Putin's hubris might come into play. He may demand the Ukrainians sign the treaty with zero qualifications and they may tell him to shove it.

It's more complex than I think some people are thinking it is.

I think you're right about Ukraine getting the security agreements with nations rather than nato. I think in the " neutrality " agreement there'll be something about no foriegn military bases / armament inside Ukraine..

 

[MeatheadMike]

My take is that you're underestimating a bit the ability of hubris to override intelligence. Anyone screaming "Putin is a moron" is using hyperbole and can't actually mean it. Even Putin's most ardent critics that know him well say he's shrewd and far from inept. But I've said it numerous times: History is LITTERED with brilliant people taking massive falls because their hubris overrode their common sense and analytical skills to the point of delusion.

I'm guessing too of course, but I think we're at the very least approaching that with Putin here. I think he can still reign it in and find a way out of this while saving a little face, but it's gonna have to be sooner rather than later.

I think it is very likely that Putin surrounded himself with yes-men who told him this invasion was going to work because that’s what he wanted to hear, making his hubris even worse.

He does have an easy exit since controls the media. No matter what happens here he can always claim victory and the average Russian will believe him.

 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr]

The western media is saying Russia has effectively lost the war and have to switch strategies out of desperation to only take the Donbas region. Is anyone buying this narrative? I don't believe Russia ever said their intention was to take over all of Ukraine or did I miss that part? Or is our media lying as usual?

 

[The Diplomat]

The western media is saying Russia has effectively lost the war and have to switch strategies out of desperation to only take the Donbas region. Is anyone buying this narrative? I don't believe Russia ever said their intention was to take over all of Ukraine or did I miss that part? Or is our media lying as usual?

Why move towards Kyiv from multiple angles, if the only goal was to secure Donbas?

 

[Deleted member 555403]

sherbros take it easy on Tom Clancy.. he's just workshopping his next book in this thread

 

[MeatheadMike]

The western media is saying Russia has effectively lost the war and have to switch strategies out of desperation to only take the Donbas region. Is anyone buying this narrative? I don't believe Russia ever said their intention was to take over all of Ukraine or did I miss that part? Or is our media lying as usual?

Russia never said their intention was to take Ukraine, but they also said they weren’t going to invade Ukraine… which they did. So clearly they are not being honest about their true intentions. We can only go by what they are actually doing.

 

[Karelinator]

The western media is saying Russia has effectively lost the war and have to switch strategies out of desperation to only take the Donbas region. Is anyone buying this narrative? I don't believe Russia ever said their intention was to take over all of Ukraine or did I miss that part? Or is our media lying as usual?

Russia stated intentions were "denazification" and bunch of other gibberish.

So who can say with certainty what their real intentions are, lol.

But their push deep into Ukraine suggest that they wanted as much of it as possible.