Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[Snowblindlove]

Maybe I am. Maybe I'm not. However, I certainly don't pray for God to destroy millions of people. Only psychopaths do that.

lol yeah you are lost

 

[Siver!]

US intel isn´t wrong. You aren´t reading intel that is serious if you are believing sensationalist headlines. right now is information war but ground facts don´t lie. The ukrainains claim the above map I posted is false and that they have regained control almost everywhere and Zelensky is saying Mauriopol still has not fallent hen he said it fell but is being retaken...

Check this map out from Russian strategists. The slashed red lines indicate active combat areas by the russians. As of 1 month ago they previously controlled in full red the entire north east of ukraine and pulled out those forces for idk what reason but I expect they will go back. 1 theory is the pull back saw them regroup and see advancing ukrainian forces expose their positions which is plausible and explaisn why the russians launched 1000 strikes at targets in the days after they pulled out from that area.

https://readovka.news/news/95042

Russia's performance on the battlefield has been very poor, and that comes from assessments from the British MOD, as well as it's US counterparts.

What this tells you, simply, is that the Russian armed forces were seriously overestimated in terms of effectiveness.

All I'm doing is applying that to the 'estimation' of the usefulness of Russian nuclear weaponry.

The Russian armed forces looked extremely threatening until they invaded Ukraine.

Now they look incompetent in the eyes of the major nation's MOD's.

 

[AWilder]

Is there any accurate information about Ukrainian casualties? Everything I'm finding seems to be propaganda. Both the Russian MoD and Ukrainian statements seem risible.

Just using common sense, with the Russians mostly having air superiority and more artillery, we would expect to see very significant Ukrainian casualties, but I understand this is a state secret.

I wouldn't be surprised if some leaked numbers come out soon. It's been a long time to keep that under wraps, but pretty obvious why Ukraine would hold that close.

 

[AWilder]

Cuba
Venezuela
Bolivia

Where does Nicaragua, Argentina and Brazil fall for you? They seem going pro russian

Brazil is sending ammunition. It's not much but it is material support for Ukraine.

 

[Snowblindlove]

Russia's performance on the battlefield has been very poor, and that comes from assessments from the British MOD, as well as it's US counterparts.

What this tells you, simply, is that the Russian armed forces were seriously overestimated in terms of effectiveness.

All I'm doing is applying that to the 'estimation' of the usefulness of Russian nuclear weaponry.

The Russian armed forces looked extremely threatening until they invaded Ukraine.

Now they look incompetent in the eyes of the major nation's MOD's.

That does not discount the strength of WMD the 4 areas it covers and the weakness of the US in this area and how that arsenal would be fought entirely by stuff that isn´t conventional.

Yes of course the British MOD at now would say that but to be fair we have to wait for the war to end and hopefully it does eventually sooner than later then we can reasses. The Russian´s are also fighting the US by proxy in Ukraine as are they fighting British forces, British volunteers and former SAS are there. Considering the assessed land size by the above pro western institute I took that is a positive.

The British MOD also claimed Russia intended to take Kiev right? That in my opinion is a poor assessment and that is also the opinion of neutral sources

 

[Snowblindlove]

Is there any accurate information about Ukrainian casualties? Everything I'm finding seems to be propaganda. Both the Russian MoD and Ukrainian statements seem risible.

Just using common sense, with the Russians mostly having air superiority and more artillery, we would expect to see very significant Ukrainian casualties, but I understand this is a state secret.

at least 20,000. I last saw 30,000 but the source will be called russian propaganda. Zelensky himself says only 3000 max which is laughable. The ukrainians claim they killed 20000 russians which is just absurd

 

[AWilder]

Russia's performance on the battlefield has been very poor, and that comes from assessments from the British MOD, as well as it's US counterparts.

What this tells you, simply, is that the Russian armed forces were seriously overestimated in terms of effectiveness.

All I'm doing is applying that to the 'estimation' of the usefulness of Russian nuclear weaponry.

The Russian armed forces looked extremely threatening until they invaded Ukraine.

Now they look incompetent in the eyes of the major nation's MOD's.

Yup. What makes a military effective is training. Russia is notorious for being short on money to train properly. They thought they could get combat experience in Syria and eastern Ukraine but it wasn't nearly enough. It also gave the west a clear view of their tactics which is being exploited now.

Their biggest weakness that is undeniable is their inability or conduct combined operations. This is where air and land assets, as well as logistics all work together to take objectives. A bunch of untrained guys are just not anywhere near the level of western militaries that train often and with eachother. Ukraine has received a lot of training from the west since 2014 and that has been their #1 best force multiplier, IMHO.

 

[Siver!]

That does not discount the strength of WMD the 4 areas it covers and the weakness of the US in this area and how that arsenal would be fought entirely by stuff that isn´t conventional.

Yes of course the British MOD at now would say that but to be fair we have to wait for the war to end and hopefully it does eventually sooner than later then we can reasses. The Russian´s are also fighting the US by proxy in Ukraine as are they fighting British forces, British volunteers and former SAS are there. Considering the assessed land size by the above pro western institute I took that is a positive.

The British MOD also claimed Russia intended to take Kiev right? That in my opinion is a poor assessment and that is also the opinion of neutral sources

What a bizarre interpretation.

Put it this way: if the US can fight a war 'by proxy' using only Ukrainian armed forces and thwart Russia using weapons alone... that's a terrible indictment of Russia's armed forces.

The failed foray towards Kyiv tells the world all it needs to know about Putin's farcical invasion, at least in my eyes.

It's been a terrible failure, even if they eventually succeed.

 

[San Marino]

What would you like to bet that Putin doesn’t use a nuke?

So far the only thing working in Russia's favor has been artillery and missiles. Tanks, soldiers, planes, and ships have all failed in Ukraine. This will be a prolonged war. Russia (like the armament to Ukraine from he West) will begin to run out of shells and missiles. Is Putin planning on taking the whole of Ukraine? If so, how will he get to the center of the country and the West? I would place the bet at 50/50 that Putin uses a small tactical nuke on major Ukrainian cities. The results would be no different from an aerial or artillery bombardment, but Russian bombers are not flying and artillery can't reach that far. Putin will not give up on this cause. He will die on this hill before surrendering to Ukraine and the West. Putin will not lose face to the West over Ukraine. Small tactical nukes inside of Ukraine only. A good chance for Russia to win the war (not that I would like to see Russia win). Ukraine cannot sustain this war for another 12 or 24 months. Again, as far as the West and NATO are concerned, Russia can have the Ukraine. They will fund and arm the opposition to Russia, but that is it. No US or NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine - regardless of what the Russians do in Ukraine.

 

[Siver!]

So far the only thing working in Russia's favor has been artillery and missiles. Tanks, soldiers, planes, and ships have all failed in Ukraine. This will be a prolonged war. Russia (like the armament to Ukraine from he West) will begin to run out of shells and missiles. Is Putin planning on taking the whole of Ukraine? If so, how will he get to the center of the country and the West? I would place the bet at 50/50 that Putin uses a small tactical nuke on major Ukrainian cities. The results would be no different from an aerial or artillery bombardment, but Russian bombers are not flying and artillery can't reach that far. Putin will not give up on this cause. He will die on this hill before surrendering to Ukraine and the West. Putin will not lose face to the West over Ukraine. Small tactical nukes inside of Ukraine only. A good chance for Russia to win the war (not that I would like to see Russia win). Ukraine cannot sustain this war for another 12 or 24 months. Again, as far as the West and NATO are concerned, Russia can have the Ukraine. They will fund and arm the opposition to Russia, but that is it. No US or NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine - regardless of what the Russians do in Ukraine.

Ukraine has survived warfare against Russia for years, almost a decade.

It's more intense now, of course, but if you're expecting a capitulation, expect it years from now.

 

[7even]

 

[AWilder]

Has this been posted? Russian officer on live tv saying their troops are dying

 

[Snowblindlove]

Controlling roads and only where the asphalt goes isn't effective control. They are being struck in all those places btw. And the ukrainian flag isn't removed in most of the villages/towns. Russians have destructive goals outside of Crimea and Donbass like denazification and demilitarizaition but are not really offering any prosperous vision for the future of the population in these settlements. Even coordination with local administration is lacking in most parts. Keeping it is harder than taking it. As has been historically demonstrated in every recent A invades B conflict.

we are seeing polar opposite stuff. I have seen thousands of ukrainian soldiers in video surrender in the south and east in the past month. I have seen russian and novorossiya flags going up everywhere in zaporzhia and kherson, donetsk, lugansk and in small areas in kharkov.

 

[Siver!]

Has this been posted? Russian officer on live tv saying their troops are dying

Yeah, it's a few weeks old I believe.

Just a media mouth shouting 'truth' at people who know what's going on.

 

[Snowblindlove]

What a bizarre interpretation.

Put it this way: if the US can fight a war 'by proxy' using only Ukrainian armed forces and thwart Russia using weapons alone... that's a terrible indictment of Russia's armed forces.

The failed foray towards Kyiv tells the world all it needs to know about Putin's farcical invasion, at least in my eyes.

It's been a terrible failure, even if they eventually succeed.

The goal is to not destroy ukraine in entirety which is why they are being tactical but if you only digest what western media says you would think the russians are blitzkrieging and burning the entire nation down or trying to. The idiot media also claims the 40k force outside kiev was meant to seize a city of 3 million that historically is not too pro russian. That offensive in the north was clearly a distraction but we have to agree to disagree. In any case the distraction worked and split the ukrainian army in 3 different directions

 

[Siver!]

The goal is to not destroy ukraine in entirety which is why they are being tactical but if you only digest what western media says you would think the russians are blitzkrieging and burning the entire nation down or trying to. The idiot media also claims the 40k force outside kiev was meant to seize a city of 3 million that historically is not too pro russian. That offensive in the north was clearly a distraction but we have to agree to disagree. In any case the distraction worked and split the ukrainian army in 3 different directions

What 'worked' about it?

The best-trained, most experienced Ukrainian forces were, have been, and still are in the Donbas.

Are you trying to say the troops in the rest of Ukraine were defeated?

Are you saying they can't now focus on the East for some reason?

What actual, tactical objectives have been secured by Russia, because I haven't heard of a single one outside of the blitzkrieg of Mariupol?

Also, if taking Ukraine in it's entirety is NOT the objective, why the need for a land bridge and a hold on the South of Ukraine?

Surely they only need that if they're planning further offensives against Ukraine in the future?

 

[San Marino]

You really think this'll go nuclear?

50/50 that the Russians use a tactical nuke inside Ukraine. A small one, maybe 1 kiloton. This will not be a 15 megaton thermonuclear device.
The Hiroshima bomb, 'Little Boy,' was 15 kilotons. 'Little Boy' was detonated 1,500 feet above the city. If detonated at ground level, there is less destruction.

Tactical nukes:
. Less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to devastate enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread destruction and radioactive fallout.
. The smallest can be one kiloton or less (equivalent to a thousand tones of the explosive TNT), the larger ones perhaps as big as 100 kilotons.

 

[sherdogwantedtonamemekiki]

50/50 that the Russians use a tactical nuke inside Ukraine. A small one, maybe 1 kiloton. This will not be a 15 megaton thermonuclear device.
The Hiroshima bomb, 'Little Boy,' was 15 kilotons. 'Little Boy' was detonated 1,500 feet above the city. If detonated at ground level, there is less destruction.

Tactical nukes:
. Less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to devastate enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread destruction and radioactive fallout.
. The smallest can be one kiloton or less (equivalent to a thousand tones of the explosive TNT), the larger ones perhaps as big as 100 kilotons.

See I don't get how that's beneficial for anyone. As soon as that happens I see everyone with nukes using whatever they have and shooting them wherever because every country has a bone to pick with another one. Just seems like 1 nuke just turns into full scale nuclear fallout.

 

[Snowblindlove]

What 'worked' about it?

The best-trained, most experienced Ukrainian forces were, have been, and still are in the Donbas.

Are you trying to say the troops in the rest of Ukraine were defeated?

Are you saying they can't now focus on the East for some reason?

What actual, tactical objectives have been secured by Russia, because I haven't heard of a single one outside of the blitzkrieg of Mariupol?

Also, if taking Ukraine in it's entirety is NOT the objective, why the need for a land bridge and a hold on the South of Ukraine?

Surely they only need that if they're planning further offensives against Ukraine in the future?

The objective in my opinion is take land east of dniper, and odessa and nykolaiv the pro russian regions overwhelmingly. Watch Donbass by french documentary or Ukraine on fire or do HW and you will see that. Prior to suppression of their identity and martial law and arrests of political opponents the east and south is pro russian. Anyhow that is what I think.

I think it is mixed long story short

Phase 1 take out the air force, navy, and strategic locations and destroy a lot of infastructure for the army and bases.

Phase 2 launch simulatenous ground force movements north east, north center, east from donbass, east from kharkov border area, south from crimea, and faint an offensive from transistria. This had the ukrainain armed forces that were in the center and west of the nation traverse immediately to these areas. Put out ´´leaks´´ or imply a take on the capital. People buy it as does the west and Ukrainian armed forces, they move to capital from center and north east ukraine border. Proceed to take entire south, far east and almost clear up lugansk entirely. Then take up north east. Fire strikes at nykolaiv targets from the west and east.

Phase 3 pull back from Kiev region and north east ukraine thereby allowing entrenched ukrainain forces to emerge from hidding positions and to advance. This happened and many were bombed advancing.

Phase 4 regroup, Phase 2 saw higher than estimated casualties on the fake invade Kiev force which was mainly meant to hold out and feint. In addition, losses around kharkov in the attempt to encircle. Likely regroup, reorganize, rest up those forces. Activate larger offensive in the Donbass and move to encircle. These Azov and hardened forces approximate roughly 33% of the ukrainian armed forces in the Donbass lending credence to the theory they planned to invade Donbass. Eliminate Donbass forces which would then show no real forces anywhere east of the dniper river.

Phase 5 relaunch forces to the north east in land that is currently still seeing active aerial combat operations but not ground offensive. Move to the river and make the river a defensible border while simulatenously taking Odessa by activating Transistria forces and coming from the sea and from the sparsely populated region below moldova and coming east. Take Nykolaiv city which is a pretty pro russian city but under ukrainain govt rule. Take this take Odessa. Also in quest to take the lands east of Dniper take Dniper city and Zaporzhia. Zaporzhia will fall easy is my estimate as will Sumy and Chernihiv. Enricle Kharkov

Phase 6 move to re encircle Kiev, Encircle Kharkov, maybe Encircle dniper but I dont think it will need that. Work to change government in Kiev and make truce

Phase 7 ideally install govt that is ´´neutral´´´ a referendum is held that cedes all land east of dniper and south ukraine to russia or to a new ´´Novorossiya state´´´that then immediately votes to join Russia´s EU the eurasian union and joins the Russian nato CSTO and joins the Russian Union state with Belarus which essentially is like the UK i.e., Scottland is a counttry as is wales but under technical UK rule which is dominated by England.

Phase 8 Active internal combat operations in west ukraine that may on go for a few years sporadically but will see most heavy fighting end by end of the year.

Alternatively if Kiev cannot be taken then referendum held anyways. East dniper lands and south enforced and taken, and Russian nuclear forces and soverigenty applied which makes any formal NATO incursion done for the east. Kiev then becomes a sporadic battle ground and the west of ukraine becomes an impoverished state the EU will try to prop up and will host its own radicalism and nazi issues.

 

[Snowblindlove]

50/50 that the Russians use a tactical nuke inside Ukraine. A small one, maybe 1 kiloton. This will not be a 15 megaton thermonuclear device.
The Hiroshima bomb, 'Little Boy,' was 15 kilotons. 'Little Boy' was detonated 1,500 feet above the city. If detonated at ground level, there is less destruction.

Tactical nukes:
. Less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to devastate enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread destruction and radioactive fallout.
. The smallest can be one kiloton or less (equivalent to a thousand tones of the explosive TNT), the larger ones perhaps as big as 100 kilotons.

there is conventional weapons that are 1kt no need for it to be radioactive