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I wonder if the actions Russia took in January in Kazakhstan made them a bit overconfident.t;dr - yes
russia winning is basically inevitable. but they, themselves, expected the conflict to be over within 2 weeks and expected to waltz right in/through with minimal resistance.
they over-ran their logistics and abandoned buttloads of vehicles. and their convoys were absolutely retarded. they're fortunate that ukraine basically sucked and had virtually no air units or decent artillery - or their convoys would have been annihilated as they were sitting ducks and obvious as fuck (everyone with internet knew where they were...)
there was basically no plan, no strategy, and there seemed to be horrid communication.
the level of fuck-ups and etc involved has been astonishing.
In Kazakhstan, Russia sent troops to protect the president from being over thrown. Many were killed. Thousands were arrested.
That's much different than going into a country in the hopes of overthrowing the current president.

