The reason the SMO is taking so long is because the objectives are much broader than almost everyone realizes. Most people think it's just about neutralizing the Ukraine and removing that particular threat to Russian security, that's the officially stated goals of the war. And it would've stayed that way if NATO hadn't gotten involved as much as it did. However, once NATO committed to the war the objectives changed for Russia, they now intend to neutralize Europe and remove it as a threat as well which is why the SMO is taking as long as it is.
This is a good write up, but I don't agree with you on a few issues.
I don't think it is really a NATO involvement, but a few European countries buying arms for Ukraine. Arms that will make little difference in the outcome of this conflict. Ukraine needs soldiers. That, Europe cannot provide.
And finally there's the US. Russia & China have figured out that they can probably do the same thing to the US that they're doing to Europe IF, and that's a big if, they play their cards right. They don't want the US completely defeated since that's likely not possible and will leave a power vacuum, but they are looking for ways to knock the US back down to a regional power instead of global one.
I don't see this happening.
The US is being economically weakened while having to deal with increasing tensions & social unrest at home, this trend will continue since the political leaders are too fucking stupid to figure out what's going on let alone do anything about it.
Tensions and unrest at home is nothing new in US history. It was actually worse during the 1960s with Vietnam and the Civil Rights movement. I think the current political leaders in the US are better than what we had under Biden. Biden (Democrats) fucked things up badly not only in the US (immigration) but in Ukraine (allowing Putin a small incursion) and Gaza (strengthening Iran and the eventual attack on the Israeli festival).
Bottom line - Ukraine war is a piece of a much bigger puzzle. It's a large & important piece, but it's still only a piece. If the goal was simply to destroy & conquer the Ukraine, it would've been over long ago. The full goal is a complete realignment of global powers & areas of influence, that's gonna take a while and will continue long after the SMO in Ukraine is over.
I think Ukraine is still the primary and only goal at this point. Not all of it, but the Eastern portion of the country. Putin trying to break up NATO will not happen unless Trump (US) decides NATO membership is no longer worth the time, money, and equipment. I don't believe Putin (Russia) has any dreams on conquering Europe. Any disagreement within the EU will be brought on internally by its members.
I don't see this conflict lasting for more than 1 year. The Ukrainian Army does not have the soldiers it needs to keep this war going for more than 1 year. Russia does. Ukrainian strategy is now completely defensive. It has to calculate which battles to fight and which battles not to fight. It is a worn-down Army that has not had a break in 4 years. European help with military equipment won't change anything. Again, Ukraine needs soldiers. It won't get any. Russia is getting ready to do another mobilization to send thousands of men to go fight in Ukraine.
I still say that Kiev should be leveled. Zelensky should be warned and civilians evacuated from Kiev before Russia levels the city. Move on to the next major city. Keep the pressure up until Russia has the Eastern part of Ukraine it wants. Zelensky should have surrendered that years ago. Now, he (and Ukrainians) is in a much worse position. Things are not getting better for Ukraine; they are getting worse. Despite what others may be saying.
