International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Strychnine]

Ukraine striking DEEP into Russian power production stations.

 

[AmonTobin]

[MEDIA

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Badr Hari]

Normally, when you attack an enemy on the ground (or in Russia's case, start an invasion), you start with the furthest reaching weapon and close it in till you get to the Infantry. In this case, artillery and missiles. At the early stages of this invasion, I don't think Russia did that. They were not expecting the pushback they got. They definitely should have made better use of their Air Force. The attack from the North into Kiev in 2022 was a failure because of this. It did manage to split the Ukrainian defense into two. One part to the North and one part to the East. Russia should have bombed the shit out of Kiev in 2022.

Well, Russia has 5: Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. The additional 4: Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv.
Russia has been scaling back. First, all of Ukraine, which I don't believe it was true. Second, the 9 oblasts mentioned, and now the 5 original oblasts. The original 5 oblasts Russia is going to keep no matter what. Non-negotiable. The additional 4 will depend on how strong the Ukrainian military (Army in particular) behaves on the battlefield. Way too much credit being given to Ukraine in this conflict. False narratives and propaganda. What is Ukraine going to do? Keep fighting for another 5, 10, 100 years? With what? It depends on outside help, soldiers they don't have, and a drying up military stock. Many inside (and outside) the Zelensky circle have already seen the light and things are not looking good. Zelensky is in denial. Ukraine should have defeated Russia in 4 years of war. It hasn't and it won't. The odds are now in Russia's favor. Ukraine is only getting weaker. The writing was on the wall from day 1. The side with the most soldiers and weapons wins. That would be Russia. It has been a blessing for Ukraine's three major cities (and the civilians) that Putin has decided to not level them. Like I said before, Netanyahu would have leveled Kiev back in 2022.
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I agree with 95% of what you say! You list the facts one by one and the map you show is actually the best possible proof of what I was saying in my own post. You don't disagree that best chance for Rus was in 2022 when they were in the outskirts of Kyiv and in the outskirts of Mykolaiv city. On road to capturing half of Ukr in an easy blitzkrieg. Ukr deserves some credit for preventing that and adapting to the circumstances although I agree with you that they have made themselves a million mistakes and could have done better. See the bold red line in the middle in the map. It means Rus in 12 years of war has taken less than half of Novorossia and that line has barely shifted the last 3 years! It will move slightly each year of course but to take all of Novorossia would require another 120 years in the tempo of the last 3 years! That can change if Rus finds a way to completely crush the AFU and collapse their front, but they aren't doing that without total mobilization of the country! Despite Ukr weaknesses and lack of manpower you need much much more manpower of your own to capitalize on the openings. The current rus army contingent is tiny for that task! Can't win a proper war with a tough opponent while not treating it domestically as a proper war!

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

I agree with 95% of what you say! You list the facts one by one and the map you show is actually the best possible proof of what I was saying in my own post. You don't disagree that best chance for Rus was in 2022 when they were in the outskirts of Kyiv and in the outskirts of Mykolaiv city. On road to capturing half of Ukr in an easy blitzkrieg. Ukr deserves some credit for preventing that and adapting to the circumstances although I agree with you that they have made themselves a million mistakes and could have done better. See the bold red line in the middle in the map. It means Rus in 12 years of war has taken less than half of Novorossia and that line has barely shifted the last 3 years! It will move slightly each year of course but to take all of Novorossia would require another 120 years in the tempo of the last 3 years! That can change if Rus finds a way to completely crush the AFU and collapse their front, but they aren't doing that without total mobilization of the country! Despite Ukr weaknesses and lack of manpower you need much much more manpower of your own to capitalize on the openings. The current rus army contingent is tiny for that task! Can't win a proper war with a tough opponent while not treating it domestically as a proper war!

That's 100% correct. If Russia could have taken the Kiev airport and controlled the area we would have been looking at a different story right now. The rest of UKR would have fallen more easily and the Baltics and Maldova would have been easy pickings...and then the next cold war would have started.
However Comrade Spinov said that was just a feint anyway.

 

[SandisLL]

I dunno why ppl time is wasted with " peace talks "? To spend taxpayers time and tax money more properly?

Russian General Staff had reported that they managed to " liberate from illegal ukr occupation " next small village in Zaporozia oblastj.
Lavrov confirmed that small special operation will be continued.

 

[SandisLL]

Conflict between EU and U.S is starting to get closer to real financial war.

Next week might in worst case happen that EP might vote for partial restrictions for U.S businesses. De facto it is sanctions project and EC can't help, it is useless to talk.

Or to apply the same tariffs as U.S will use.

They also might denounce trade agreenent with U.S.
They does knows that U.S does protect only their profits nothing else and worthless will be talks about protection weapons sales illusions for taxpayers and voters.
They aren't idiots or papuas tribe in jungles.

In worst case to sell U.S bonds etc stuff too on top....

The worst stuff is that EP vote will be law....if speaker will put bill on floor and they will vote YES, Urzula will have 0 tools to prevent this to happen.
EC is institution not lawmaker.

 

[SandisLL]

There due to slow server chain response happens double posts.

 

[SandisLL]

Double posts are boring and I don't have intent to do such annoying useless stuff.
Just if you don't see reaction some seconds, you usually repeat action to press button " Post ".
Reaction is very slow.

 

[SandisLL]

There is one interesting question about Russia : how much resources their Mig 31 had left?

These are very expensive to manufacture or refubrish.

Predcessor was Mig 25. It was notable with very high real price to manufacture and 29 world records and unforgiving engines. 0 smallest mistake allowed by airplane. Or end of game.

 

[SandisLL]

Mig 31 manufacturing expenses in best for russia case might cost them just more than 5 Su 35 latest versions.

Mig 25 real manufacturing prices were more than expenses for 6 Su 27 then modern versions...

 

[SandisLL]

BTW funny were pump talks about Greenland for Davos. Too different history version, almost like Putin No2 clownade.

During World War II Hitler had 0 real capability to occupy Greenland. Due to climate alone maybe better had been if he wanted to install hitlerites in Greenland. More = better in order to freeze hitlerites till end of life. Northern part of Alaska if compare with Greenland really might look like comfortable sanatorium.

 

[SandisLL]

For not locals to live in Greenland alone is some kind of mental torture. Very boring. Really strong nerves are needed not to get mental problems.
Climate with reality : so large areas without single tree, 0 human to see in 10 miles area, ice, snow and strong cold winds running to punish.
Boring. Cold. Nasty winds.

 

[SandisLL]

That's 100% correct. If Russia could have taken the Kiev airport and controlled the area we would have been looking at a different story right now. The rest of UKR would have fallen more easily and the Baltics and Maldova would have been easy pickings...and then the next cold war would have started.
However Comrade Spinov said that was just a feint anyway.

Ofc western bottlemates are talking simple way.
Baltics have 0 illusions about yanks weaklings and traitors. Does have experience.

However they had even 100 years long wars. Also russian hardcore bottlemates had prised Berlin defeat while garnisons in Baltic still had some frontlines.

Weak hardcore traitors ...

However nothing wrong, it is business and nothing personal.
If west will abadon them and Putin will offer enough cash, they might agree to help de nazify Berlin. Will not be first time.

 

[SandisLL]

Only thing U.S mentally might be ready to support Germany in case of large scale war might be U.S citizens evacuation nothing more.....real perspective.
And yes, attempts to trade about some areas and have party with vodka together with germans is illusion.
Steamroll will go till Western part of western germany and why not?
If Putin will not be complete idiot he even might negotiate with poles and baltic guys.
For $ on the table. To help steamroll west.
If someone does thinks that pirates offsprings are naive papua cavemans tribes and doesn't know history or business basics ...LOL.

 

[SandisLL]

Pump btw this week and next week will not get real time to think about U.S colonium in ukraine ( Ukraine is U.S colonium with bad owners )
He will exercise his senile brains about possible trade and financial war vs europe.
Clerck Vance will help Trump. Senile clerck despite young.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

"Jay in Kyiv" has become my fav you tuber, obviously pro UKR but gives a lot of good honest info and is not a money hungry beggar like Denys. I try to watch both sides and bloggers to get accurate info as possible.

 

[Sir Elzio Dennick]

I cannot believe just how bad Russia is at fighting a war, totally suck.

They will never figure out a long convoy of tanks trucks whatever will not work as they keep getting wiped out.

Noway I want a Russian in my foxhole,

 

[Strychnine]

Where's Putin?

Where're the Rubles?

 

[San Marino]

That can change if Rus finds a way to completely crush the AFU and collapse their front, but they aren't doing that without total mobilization of the country! Despite Ukr weaknesses and lack of manpower you need much much more manpower of your own to capitalize on the openings. The current rus army contingent is tiny for that task! Can't win a proper war with a tough opponent while not treating it domestically as a proper war!

Indeed.
...what is Putin waiting for? Russia should have had a complete mobilization back in 2022. Not to mention leveling Kiev and other major cities with conventional missiles. Russia is holding back on these two issues and Ukraine thinks they have the upper hand in this conflict. I'm not sure why Putin (Russia) has chosen this agonizing and slow way to fight this war. It is the only reason the Ukrainian Army has had any success and not been defeated. Despite 4 years of a slow go in Ukraine, Russia still ties with China for the number 2 spot in military world power. Had Netanyahu been in power, he would have unleashed 'hell' in major Ukrainian cities and had a full mobilization back in 2022. The conflict would have ended in 2022. The man has no regard for human life - especially innocent civilians.