While Russia's economy has shown surprising resilience, defying early collapse predictions, it's facing significant challenges like slowing growth, falling oil revenues, increased military spending pressure, and potential budget issues, with some experts warning of a potential banking crisis or recession in 2026, indicating a difficult, stagnant future rather than immediate collapse, mortgaging its long-term prospects.
Why It Hasn't Collapsed:
- War Economy Adaptation: High military spending created growth, absorbing labor and boosting some sectors.
- Energy Revenue: High energy prices initially helped, though this is now a weaker buffer.
- Import Substitution & Reconfiguration: Russia successfully rerouted trade and found new supply chains.
- Financial System Stability: Early aggressive central bank actions prevented immediate financial panic.