International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[DEVILsSON]

Uhm, so first of all, I'm just reading/watching things from both sides and expressing an opinion.

Second of all, I don't understand your aggression towards me. I'm not saying bad things about Ukraine's desire for independence or sovereignty. Just expressing my assessment of things and you start being disrespectful towards me.



Ethnic minorities face a degree of discrimination in Russia, the whole situation is complex. The second statement is also complex. Initially there was Ukrainian/Western propaganda that said ethnic minorities were being disproportionately mobilized and killed in the war. Actual objective assessment and data doesn't seem to indicate that.

There's a lot to say about propaganda efforts from both sides that predate the war and are 1000X worse now.



So again, there's a lot of layers here and I have a lot of thoughts but I'm not going to write out anything because it's going to be too much.

The second largest ethnic group in Russia is Ukrainians. There are also a lot of Ukrainian nationalists that cross the border into Russia and contribute to Ukraine's war effort from inside Russia because it's very easy for Ukrainians to fit inside Russia and be undistinguished. And yes, there's a minority of ethnic Russians that want Putin overthrown.



I'm not as attached to my opinions as you are, I'm interested in truth and then I write out my thoughts. That's about it.

You're basically doing activism/propaganda work here.

If you're actually Ukrainian I completely understand and sympathize for you.

I hate fake politeness and bullshit.

You're being a well mannered propagandist while putting on a smile thinking that's what appeals to the Westerners.

I am not necessarily trying to be rude to you but I am detecting a lot of bs masked behind fake intellectualism and concern.

At one point there were like five casualties from Moscow compared to tens of thousands from far away oblasts. You can point to those areas being more economically disadvantaged or whatever else but it has always been the case that enthnic minorities were treated notably worse.

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

135,100 deaths confirmed by October 10

en.zona.media

Look at the map of casualties. Total losses from St Petersburg and Moscow is less than 3k now. Tell me that's by pure luck ...

I am not going to bullshit and say I am some neutral party. I am in favor of Ukraine and I hope Russia implodes and Putin gets the polonium tea treatment.

By all means continue to feign some neutrality and faux academic perspective.

 

[DEVILsSON]

You can tell if you're reading something objective, honest, authentic, and sincere if you read things like "reported to be", "indications show", "the Ukrainian/Russian army claims", etc.

We literally don't know a lot of things. Things become apparent months/years after they happen.

It was like this in world war 2 too.

Hitler was actively convincing his population that Nazi Germany's victory was inevitable up until Germany was being marched into.

Got it ...so we can't trust anything...you are creating distrust of all mainstream news and organizations and pretend this is some philosophical/theoretical/academic discussion...


Edit I see you did address it in part

So what about gas shortages? Rationing ? Being forced to import gasoline from China? Cars lined up for kilometers waiting to get their 8-10 liters? Russians complaining openly online (even formally)?


Is that also not objective?

 

[ChessJitsu]

I hate fake politeness and bullshit.

You're being a well mannered propagandist while putting on a smile thinking that's what appeals to the Westerners.

I am not necessarily trying to be rude to you but I am detecting a lot of bs masked behind fake intellectualism and concern.

At one point there were like five casualties from Moscow compared to tens of thousands from far away oblasts. You can point to those areas being more economically disadvantaged or whatever else but it has always been the case that enthnic minorities were treated notably worse.

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

135,100 deaths confirmed by October 10

en.zona.media

Look at the map of casualties. Total losses from St Petersburg and Moscow is less than 3k now. Tell me that's by pure luck ...

I am not going to bullshit and say I am some neutral party. I am in favor of Ukraine and I hope Russia implodes and Putin gets the polonium tea treatment.

By all means continue to feign some neutrality and faux academic perspective.

Mediazona is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot. The outlet's editor-in-chief is Russian political journalist Sergey Smirnov.

Mediazona - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

St. Petersburg and Moscow will naturally have less mobilization and less casualties than all the other oblasts. This has been systemic to Russia since the 1950s.

Those 2 cities are actually pretty representative of Russia's overall demographic distribution (because they're very heavily populated with Caucus, Asian, and Central Asian peoples, amongst migrants outside the form Soviet Union as well).

The question is whether there's a concentrated effort to mobilize more non ethnic Russians to the frontlines than otherwise and there doesn't seem to be data that support this notion.

Such a thing would genuinely boost separatist sentiment and I don't think that's a risk that Putin wants to take.

And just for clarity, as I said here before, I'm originally from one of Russia's ethnic republics but grew up in America.

Most ethnic minority people I meet in New York / New Jersey really hate the Kremlin but when I talk to people inside Russia and when I went back 5 years ago, the majority either prefer Putin or are apolitical and prefer to focus on their daily lives than geopolitical matters they consider above their understanding and practical reason for concern.

 

[DEVILsSON]

Mediazona is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot. The outlet's editor-in-chief is Russian political journalist Sergey Smirnov.

Mediazona - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

St. Petersburg and Moscow will naturally have less mobilization and less casualties than all the other oblasts. This has been systemic to Russia since the 1950s.

Those 2 cities are actually pretty representative of Russia's overall demographic distribution (because they're very heavily populated with Caucus, Asian, and Central Asian peoples, amongst migrants outside the form Soviet Union as well).

The question is whether there's a concentrated effort to mobilize more non ethnic Russians to the frontlines than otherwise and there doesn't seem to be data that support this notion.

Such a thing would genuinely boost separatist sentiment and I don't think that's a risk that Putin wants to take.

And just for clarity, as I said here before, I'm originally from one of Russia's ethnic republics but grew up in America.

Most ethnic minority people I meet in New York / New Jersey really hate the Kremlin but when I talk to people inside Russia and when I went back 5 years ago, the majority either prefer Putin or are apolitical and prefer to focus on their daily lives than geopolitical matters they consider above their understanding and practical reason for concern.

That's because Russia has no independent media inside Russia. So now anyone that is not in Russia is a propagandist...how convenient...so they must either get murdered or jailed to be considered real Russian journalists...

That data is compiled from openly available data sources...

It's quite strange the most populated cities are not sending their people to war. It's very convenient to send your ethnic minorities from far flung places where they won't be missed....

What choice do Russians have in Russia but to be 'apolitical'? What choice do Russians have but to publicly support Putin? You're pretending like it's all consistent of things you'd see in the West...it's like asking a North Korean what they think of their Supreme Leader...he's amazing...he's the best...he wants the best for his country...while some of them are eating dirt ...

 

[SandisLL]

Mediazona is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that was founded by Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, who are also co-founders of the protest group and band Pussy Riot. The outlet's editor-in-chief is Russian political journalist Sergey Smirnov.

Mediazona - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

St. Petersburg and Moscow will naturally have less mobilization and less casualties than all the other oblasts. This has been systemic to Russia since the 1950s.

Those 2 cities are actually pretty representative of Russia's overall demographic distribution (because they're very heavily populated with Caucus, Asian, and Central Asian peoples, amongst migrants outside the form Soviet Union as well).

The question is whether there's a concentrated effort to mobilize more non ethnic Russians to the frontlines than otherwise and there doesn't seem to be data that support this notion.

Such a thing would genuinely boost separatist sentiment and I don't think that's a risk that Putin wants to take.

And just for clarity, as I said here before, I'm originally from one of Russia's ethnic republics but grew up in America.

Most ethnic minority people I meet in New York / New Jersey really hate the Kremlin but when I talk to people inside Russia and when I went back 5 years ago, the majority either prefer Putin or are apolitical and prefer to focus on their daily lives than geopolitical matters they consider above their understanding and practical reason for concern.

You are living in your some kind of information bubble and looks didn't had read nor all this discussion here nor really more serious reports.

Moscow and St Pete are areas with lowest unemployment % and highest salaries in Russia.
It is different world if compare with Russia.

I had posted multiple times that hiring for special operation is more successful in areas with high unemployment % and low salaries.

Even in the same Checnya as I had noted multiple times, in Grozny is low unemployment % and high for Russia salaries.
Therefore there to hire for special operation isn't easy and most successful hiring was and is in smaller towns and villages with very high unemployment % and low salaries...

__
Looks that you aren't interested in depth about situation in Russia.

Where is easier to hire guys : in city with some maybe 3% unemployment ( yeah, if include under the table paid stuff too ) OR in village with some 20-40% unemployment?

So where ppl are more poor, easier to hire.

___

 

[Cid]

Ukraine was literally blocked from joining NATO for being too corrupt.

Bro Turkey is in NATO.

You really so dumb that your echo chamber has convinced you that Ukraine is more corrupt than Turkey?

 

[SandisLL]

BTW if someone is really interested about salaries in Russia, not from mainstream media : use hh.ru

It is website used by HR ads about jobs.
You will see salaries offered, location, requirements.
N.B offered salaries usually are brutto ( before tax reduction , not take home ) per 1 month.
Then take calculator and convert 1:100 to get how much USD $ you might get on paper per month....
Translate requirements and you will get....
Real life , real jobs offers, 0 talks about politics, 0 annoying bullshit.

You even might contact with companies, HR etc in order to taste.

It is old, reputable job ads website not some bullshit crap....

 

[SandisLL]

BTW I had get his message between lines, like for Ukraine actually might be good to join Russia cos minorities aren't oppressed.
So for them will be cool etc.

It is flowchart done by so called intelectual russians in exile for English audithory.

Actually for oligarchs in Russia is cool regardless from origin.
Ofc if you will make problems, then might happen suicide, accidents, strange health problems, repeatedly tax audits for companies etc....
Casual flowchart 1992-2025 and will continue.

 

[ChessJitsu]

You really so dumb that your echo chamber has convinced you that Ukraine is more corrupt than Turkey?

Ukraine is more corrupt than Turkey (but they're both corrupt).

It's basic political economy, with few exceptions, if a country is a poorer, it's more corrupt.

That's my opinion, but you can find corruption indexes that give Ukraine a slightly better score (it's based on perception though).

 

[AWilder]

I'm from one of Russia's ethnic republics and I can tell you that the truth is more complex and favorable to the Kremlin than you might think:

• Since the war began, both pro-Russian patriotism and and separatism spiked, but pro-Russia patriotism is more prevalent
  • most separatist activity and movement comes from expatriates who don't have much credibility in Russia because they're living abroad (as a rebuttal, you can say that in Russia they wouldn't be able to organize effective activism because of repression, but I'm just examining facts here, not trying to express an opinion). It actually makes separatism look less dignified and authentic to people in the Republics because it has Western fingerprints all over it and doesn't seem to be in the best sincere interest of indigenous peoples
  • a lot of war crimes committed against ethnic minority soldiers in Ukraine by the UAF stoked strong feelings against Ukraine in the ethnic republics. Of course a patriotic Ukrainian might respond with "you came into our lands with guns, we reserve the right to defend ourselves however we want!!" but that doesn't seem to be enough for the republics
  • around 2018 Putin multiplied his attention to the Republics by 100X. Constantly addressing them, framing Russian history in a certain way, highlighting stars and heroes from those areas, etc. The star treatment that UFC fighters from Dagestan and Chechnya get from Russian authority and oligarchs is an example of this
    • there's 2 important variables with this: one of the pillars of the United Russia party of Putin rests on tapping into support from ethnic Republics in Russia. That is, Putin actually gets more support (as a percentage) from non ethnic Russians than from ethnic Russians. Part of the reason for this is when the ethnic republics see outreach and care from the regime like this, they can imagine that alternatives can only be worse (Yeltsin was a racist prick and nationalism in Russia is scary to ethnic minorities). The 2 benefits Putin gets from outreach to ethnic Republics are:
      • 1. support for his unchallenged political machine
      • 2. keeping separatism down
  • Another large variable is that, because of how the Kremlin frames this as a war against neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism domestically, it's like a lot of people in ethnic republics get the perception that they're fighting neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism at home by fighting it in Ukraine. The military propaganda in this situation is very similar to US military propaganda in Iraq. In fact, the way the Kremlin copied USA talking points to justify the military operation in Ukraine can come off as a way of saying "you did something like this without giving a good sincere explanation, now we are"

I wonder why pro-putin is more prevalent

 

[SandisLL]

Why not, in Ukraine oligarchs Rustem, Rinat and Igor were fine, in Russia too..businesses.
Despite no one from them was Ukrainian or russian.
Normal businesses in Russia and Ukraine.

 

[ChessJitsu]

I wonder why pro-putin is more prevalent

political oppression and state propaganda machine (I'll put this first to satisfy the pathological types on here)

+

people in Russia not being fans of regime of change and state collapse

+

traditional Russian political patterns that are manifesting themselves in an interesting way in the modern age

 

[SandisLL]

I wonder why pro-putin is more prevalent

After so called win in checnya Putin had boosted infrastructure funding in Grozny from Federal Budget ! till heaven level...

Also allowed Chechen oligarchs to own businesses in Moscow etc.
Not just street market...
They does have also serious companies or are co owners etc.. in a lot of cases russians working in these doesn't knows this because they hired russian director, HR etc....and placed in board some russians etc.

 

[ChessJitsu]

After so called win in checnya Putin had boosted infrastructure funding in Grozny from Federal Budget ! till heaven level...

Also allowed Chechen oligarchs to own businesses in Moscow etc.
Not just street market...
They does have also serious companies or are co owners etc.. in a lot of cases russians working in these doesn't knows this because they hired russian director, HR etc....and placed in board some russians etc.

Kadyrov literally sends his goons to Moscow and St. Petersrburg to beat up people that say bad things about him.

The amount of power he has now is insane.

Chechnya and Tatarstan have special statuses inside Russia. They preserved a degree of autonomy that other republics don't have.

Even with this though, Chechnya has higher levels of separatist sentiment than other Russian republics.

The heartache and pain from the 1990s wars still lingers amongst many there.

 

[Cole train]

Kadyrov literally sends his goons to Moscow and St. Petersrburg to beat up people that say bad things about him.

The amount of power he has now is insane.

Chechnya and Tatarstan have special statuses inside Russia. They preserved a degree of autonomy that other republics don't have.

Even with this though, Chechnya has higher levels of separatist sentiment than other Russian republics.

The heartache and pain from the 1990s wars still lingers amongst many there.

Kadyrov is a dead man without Putin behind him.Too many people from dudaevs era are still alive and son of a traitor is a no go

 

[SandisLL]

Kadyrov is a dead man without Putin behind him.Too many people from dudaevs era are still alive and son of a traitor is a no go

They will install next.
For example gos Duma does have some checens elected...
They loves Putin a lot.

 

[SandisLL]

Ukraine is more corrupt than Turkey (but they're both corrupt).

It's basic political economy, with few exceptions, if a country is a poorer, it's more corrupt.

That's my opinion, but you can find corruption indexes that give Ukraine a slightly better score (it's based on perception though).

We know that you want Ukraine to be Russia by 100% comrade.
It is so easy to see this and yes, it will be Russia, later.

Everything is decided about Ukraine and 0 chances to avoid destiny.

Ofc maybe some % of them will get brains to relocate from Ukraine......and will not trust smokescreen promises about good future ....

 

[SandisLL]

So, countries might be conquered with sword or debts.

Cos to take all Ukraine now doesn't looks possible ...
1. Will press to gave Russia some part of land, will sign some toilet papers etc.
2. Then remaining of ukr will be supervised by lenders, China, Russia and U.S colonium.
Dreamers will get beautiful talks about good future in this colonium.
Inflation, poverty, ofc tax etc will be on poor class and austerity measures too.
Some 5% or lesser will be fine, other might prepare to relocate...

Dreams and debts...poverty and cinema propaganda about good future.

Later ofc will be incorporated in Russia also remaining part of ukr.
West and East will be happy with such scenario.

Therefore will happen.

 

[SandisLL]

BTW from pragmatic point for China is very good long war in Ukraine. This weakens russian finances and is putting more and more Russia into chinesse vassal.
Very huge dependence from import from China...starting with cheap crap till something more expensive. Russia can't without this..China might afford even not trade with Russia.
They had accumulated damn huge stockpiles of nickel....crude oil they might purchase and are purchasing also from Iran and if will want, from U.S too.

For Putin from one point is super good very long war in ukraine: ukr will accumulate more debts and not only state treasury and municipalities, also companies and casuals private persons.
More debts : better for Putin and bottlemates.

OK, Russia will struggle and still if it will better in future it is worth to prolong war as long as it will be possible.

 

[GhostZ06]