International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[ChessJitsu]

The passengers want to jump off the sinking ship and save themselves!

I'm from one of Russia's ethnic republics and I can tell you that the truth is more complex and favorable to the Kremlin than you might think:

• Since the war began, both pro-Russian patriotism and and separatism spiked, but pro-Russia patriotism is more prevalent
  • most separatist activity and movement comes from expatriates who don't have much credibility in Russia because they're living abroad (as a rebuttal, you can say that in Russia they wouldn't be able to organize effective activism because of repression, but I'm just examining facts here, not trying to express an opinion). It actually makes separatism look less dignified and authentic to people in the Republics because it has Western fingerprints all over it and doesn't seem to be in the best sincere interest of indigenous peoples
  • a lot of war crimes committed against ethnic minority soldiers in Ukraine by the UAF stoked strong feelings against Ukraine in the ethnic republics. Of course a patriotic Ukrainian might respond with "you came into our lands with guns, we reserve the right to defend ourselves however we want!!" but that doesn't seem to be enough for the republics
  • around 2018 Putin multiplied his attention to the Republics by 100X. Constantly addressing them, framing Russian history in a certain way, highlighting stars and heroes from those areas, etc. The star treatment that UFC fighters from Dagestan and Chechnya get from Russian authority and oligarchs is an example of this
    • there's 2 important variables with this: one of the pillars of the United Russia party of Putin rests on tapping into support from ethnic Republics in Russia. That is, Putin actually gets more support (as a percentage) from non ethnic Russians than from ethnic Russians. Part of the reason for this is when the ethnic republics see outreach and care from the regime like this, they can imagine that alternatives can only be worse (Yeltsin was a racist prick and nationalism in Russia is scary to ethnic minorities). The 2 benefits Putin gets from outreach to ethnic Republics are:
      • 1. support for his unchallenged political machine
      • 2. keeping separatism down
  • Another large variable is that, because of how the Kremlin frames this as a war against neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism domestically, it's like a lot of people in ethnic republics get the perception that they're fighting neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism at home by fighting it in Ukraine. The military propaganda in this situation is very similar to US military propaganda in Iraq. In fact, the way the Kremlin copied USA talking points to justify the military operation in Ukraine can come off as a way of saying "you did something like this without giving a good sincere explanation, now we are"

 

[ChessJitsu]

It seems to me (and I'm talking completely out of my ass with this one) that the White House made an assessment and doesn't think that the fuel-targeting activity of Ukraine inside Russia is not going to be enough to change the course of the war.

That is, the increasingly larger & larger gap in manpower, ammunition, and industry between Russia (literally just the part of Russia's machine that's oriented towards winning in Ukraine) and Ukraine (the entirety of Ukraine as it struggles to survive as a state with the territory it has now) is a more obvious and reliable predictor to the outcome of this conflict than any economic and area-specific setbacks that Russia experiences in its operations.

The game theory dynamics in this situation is also pretty fascinating.

Some people wonder why America doesn't just let it's European NATO counterparts take care of this situation themselves, but the truth is that the military alliance obliges America to to have responsibilities towards Europe that do get reciprocated (with symmetrically or not is another matter). Europe provides USA intel on Russa & China, agrees not to go into the East's orbit, and provides a minimum amount of support towards America's international military operations.

America's colossal involvement in this war is largely recognition of this relationship and also hedging against China if Russia succeeds in Ukraine and stays committed to its Sino-tilt.

On the other hand, if America goes too far and enables Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with its weaponry and intelligence assistance, it gets recognized as a direct participant in the war and is threatened with reciprocal action.

There's a chance Russa proves to be just as a feeble against the West as Iran, barking and threatening counterattacks but only having symbolic reactions.

That's also the sense Ukrainian war effort promotes because, obviously, it's favorable to them ("c'mon USA, gives us your best long range-weapons there will be no repercussions to you").

Strictly the risk that the above assessment is false is enough to keep USA from actually crossing an escalation point (which it keeps testing but not crossing).

 

[ChessJitsu]

Yes, Ukraine is targeting fuel activity in Russia, which means they successful expanded their efforts against Russia from defensive areas to deep inside Russian territory as far as the Siberia.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, this coincides with gigantic Russian uptick in air assaults on a now daily basis (what was once monthly became weekly to now daily).

Both sides are innovative and resourceful.

The West gives Ukraine training, advanced weaponry, and intelligence assistance.

Ukraine is now capable of targeting Russian energy industry deep inside. Trying to break the engine that funds an industrial military machine. This machine is persistently trying to break a 2 year gridlock with nothing but superior manpower and superior ammo.

Increasingly, Ukraine's air defenses are breaking even as its more resources delivered.

Quality of troops and war morale is also lower in Ukraine than it was in the first year.

This fuel targeting strategy seemed to be a reliable hope for Ukraine but the assessment now is that by itself it won't.

With no diplomatic breakthrough (trying to get White House to deliver tomahawks or specific gamechanger weapons that, in the course of this war, Russia eventually adjusts to), it seems like the White House is genuinely preparing for a global layout where it has to treat Russia with respect and legitimacy.

 

[San Marino]

There's a chance Russa proves to be just as a feeble against the West as Iran, barking and threatening counterattacks but only having symbolic reactions.

Neither Russia nor Iran are feeble. Far from it. Iran remains a threat through the funding of terrorism and the continuation of its nuclear program.

Russia has been fighting a war against Ukraine and western weaponry for over 3 years. It can continue to fight this war for another 3 years. Ukraine cannot do that. It does not have the manpower and European funding for the war will most likely dry up in another year.

 

[ChessJitsu]

This is what I think is happening from watching youtube videos and what my assessment is when people call this a war of attrition:

• Territorial expansion of Russia in Ukraine is very small and steady. For 2025 it's something like 1% increase. People see this and say that's basically a complete stalemate.
• I think the goal of Russia, and where trends are moving to, is to breakthrough one of the blue stars in Ukraine which is the defensive mobilizations:
  • there are reports that "Ukraine is not going to have enough manpower to plug in all of its defensive lines". What that means, is as Russia's advantage in manpower and firepower multiplies and multiplies, eventually, there are less blue stars and Russian breakthrough increases in scale and speed. This is a pretty common military pattern of Russian breakthroughs. Maps look stagnant until the imbalance between the 2 just goes too much in Russia's favor and then there's a fast-paced march Westwards.
  • to put in another way, "why is Russia so confident in its victory if territorial changes are tiny?"... well, because the dynamic movement and tension between the 2 sides is about manpower and firepower, not the territorial map (for now)
    • Ukraine went from being able to push Russia back out of large sums of territory
    • to not being able to push Russia back from any significant amount of territory
    • to not being able to stop Russia from steadily taking villages at a snail-pace
    • this trend is reflective of the course that wars of attrition take
    • the next logical phase (which folds in like 6-12 months) is Russia's snail pace advance gets a medium pace advance

 

[DEVILsSON]

It seems to me (and I'm talking completely out of my ass with this one) that the White House made an assessment and doesn't think that the fuel-targeting activity of Ukraine inside Russia is not going to be enough to change the course of the war.

That is, the increasingly larger & larger gap in manpower, ammunition, and industry between Russia (literally just the part of Russia's machine that's oriented towards winning in Ukraine) and Ukraine (the entirety of Ukraine as it struggles to survive as a state with the territory it has now) is a more obvious and reliable predictor to the outcome of this conflict than any economic and area-specific setbacks that Russia experiences in its operations.

The game theory dynamics in this situation is also pretty fascinating.

Some people wonder why America doesn't just let it's European NATO counterparts take care of this situation themselves, but the truth is that the military alliance obliges America to to have responsibilities towards Europe that do get reciprocated (with symmetrically or not is another matter). Europe provides USA intel on Russa & China, agrees not to go into the East's orbit, and provides a minimum amount of support towards America's international military operations.

America's colossal involvement in this war is largely recognition of this relationship and also hedging against China if Russia succeeds in Ukraine and stays committed to its Sino-tilt.

On the other hand, if America goes too far and enables Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with its weaponry and intelligence assistance, it gets recognized as a direct participant in the war and is threatened with reciprocal action.

There's a chance Russa proves to be just as a feeble against the West as Iran, barking and threatening counterattacks but only having symbolic reactions.

That's also the sense Ukrainian war effort promotes because, obviously, it's favorable to them ("c'mon USA, gives us your best long range-weapons there will be no repercussions to you").

Strictly the risk that the above assessment is false is enough to keep USA from actually crossing an escalation point (which it keeps testing but not crossing).

Great assessment if it's based on theoretical academic game theory ideas and not on what's actually happening in front of our eyes, real world data, not taking into account a senile retard for a president who's easily swayed back and forth by empty flattery, etc.

In just a couple months of sustained attacks Ukraine disabled 40% of Russian oil refining capacity and if Ukraine were to stop it today, it will take approximately 9 months for Russia to get back to its previous capacity.

Russians are out of tanks and are attacking on cheap Chinese motorcycles if they are lucky. They are using horses and donkeys.

Russia has not been able to take any major towns. Cities which were supposed to fall two years ago are still under Ukrainian control.

Russia is having an economic and financial collapse. It is running deficit spending 6 times what it projected for this year and it is projected 4 times for next year which of course means it will be far bigger if status quo continues.

Drones have effectively frozen the contact lines. Russia has no answer.

Ukraine will increase attacks on Russian energy infrastructure which will continue to disrupt the Russian way of life beyond having to wait for gas for hours on end.

Lets be clear, Ukraine doesn't even need Tomahawks and it will not cause any additional escalation. It's all bluster like US getting nuked if they gave Himars, Patriots, tanks, F16s, ammo, etc....

It's as if you think we're all retarded and you can write some nonsense that sounds good and maybe someone who doesn't follow the conflict at all would find plausible. But hey Stolen Valerino likes it so that's all that matters...

 

[San Marino]

It's if you think we're all retarded and you can write some nonsense that sounds good and maybe someone who doesn't follow the conflict at all would find plausible. But hey Stolen Valerino likes it so that's all that matters...

How long will you and your little friends continue to live in denial?

So, what the guy writes is nonsense, but what you write is the absolute truth.

If you are in fact following this conflict closely, Russia is clearly doing better than what you portray and Ukraine is doing far worse than your potrail.

So, answer me this:
. How large is the current Ukrainian Army?
. How many casualties (average) is Ukraine taking a month?
. How long will Europe pay for Ukraine to keep fighting?
. How will Kiev deal with a one time 2,500 missile/drone strike?

The Russian economy will not collapse and the damage to Russian oil refineries will not have an impact on this conflict. The Russian military will never run out of gas or diesel. The impact on the civilian population is irrelevant to the conflict. The Ukrainian Army is currently much weaker than the Russian Army. Get back to me in another year so we can talk about that Ukrainian defeat.

 

[DEVILsSON]

I'm from one of Russia's ethnic republics and I can tell you that the truth is more complex and favorable to the Kremlin than you might think:

• Since the war began, both pro-Russian patriotism and and separatism spiked, but pro-Russia patriotism is more prevalent
  • most separatist activity and movement comes from expatriates who don't have much credibility in Russia because they're living abroad (as a rebuttal, you can say that in Russia they wouldn't be able to organize effective activism because of repression, but I'm just examining facts here, not trying to express an opinion). It actually makes separatism look less dignified and authentic to people in the Republics because it has Western fingerprints all over it and doesn't seem to be in the best sincere interest of indigenous peoples
  • a lot of war crimes committed against ethnic minority soldiers in Ukraine by the UAF stoked strong feelings against Ukraine in the ethnic republics. Of course a patriotic Ukrainian might respond with "you came into our lands with guns, we reserve the right to defend ourselves however we want!!" but that doesn't seem to be enough for the republics
  • around 2018 Putin multiplied his attention to the Republics by 100X. Constantly addressing them, framing Russian history in a certain way, highlighting stars and heroes from those areas, etc. The star treatment that UFC fighters from Dagestan and Chechnya get from Russian authority and oligarchs is an example of this
    • there's 2 important variables with this: one of the pillars of the United Russia party of Putin rests on tapping into support from ethnic Republics in Russia. That is, Putin actually gets more support (as a percentage) from non ethnic Russians than from ethnic Russians. Part of the reason for this is when the ethnic republics see outreach and care from the regime like this, they can imagine that alternatives can only be worse (Yeltsin was a racist prick and nationalism in Russia is scary to ethnic minorities). The 2 benefits Putin gets from outreach to ethnic Republics are:
      • 1. support for his unchallenged political machine
      • 2. keeping separatism down
  • Another large variable is that, because of how the Kremlin frames this as a war against neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism domestically, it's like a lot of people in ethnic republics get the perception that they're fighting neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism at home by fighting it in Ukraine. The military propaganda in this situation is very similar to US military propaganda in Iraq. In fact, the way the Kremlin copied USA talking points to justify the military operation in Ukraine can come off as a way of saying "you did something like this without giving a good sincere explanation, now we are"

Some AI type rhetoric. Looks good but lacks reality.

Anyone who's not a drunk or moron knows that ethnic minorities are treated as second and third class citizens. They are largely the ones dying in the war.

Oh Russia glorified a couple Chechen or Dagestani fighters and that's your proof that Russia is making an outreach to the minorities?

Sure Russia is buying support in Chechnya but that's very expensive and when it is struggling financially now something will have to give and I suspect the subsidies will decrease substantially.

Your proof that ethnic Russians don't support Ukraine is what? Because there are numerous incidents where trains get derailed, refineries getting set on fire, etc...sure seems like partisans are quite active and can see through the Russian propaganda bullshit....

Most Russian people are not dumb and they know what's happening. There are many jokes in Russia to wait to confirm something when the government finally gets to denying it.

Yes, Ukraine is targeting fuel activity in Russia, which means they successful expanded their efforts against Russia from defensive areas to deep inside Russian territory as far as the Siberia.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, this coincides with gigantic Russian uptick in air assaults on a now daily basis (what was once monthly became weekly to now daily).

Both sides are innovative and resourceful.

The West gives Ukraine training, advanced weaponry, and intelligence assistance.

Ukraine is now capable of targeting Russian energy industry deep inside. Trying to break the engine that funds an industrial military machine. This machine is persistently trying to break a 2 year gridlock with nothing but superior manpower and superior ammo.

Increasingly, Ukraine's air defenses are breaking even as its more resources delivered.

Quality of troops and war morale is also lower in Ukraine than it was in the first year.

This fuel targeting strategy seemed to be a reliable hope for Ukraine but the assessment now is that by itself it won't.

With no diplomatic breakthrough (trying to get White House to deliver tomahawks or specific gamechanger weapons that, in the course of this war, Russia eventually adjusts to), it seems like the White House is genuinely preparing for a global layout where it has to treat Russia with respect and legitimacy.

In like 2.5 months Ukraine knocked out 40 fucking percent of Russian refineries....could you cope any harder?

Russian planes are crashing out of the sky due to lack of parts and maintenance. ...that's when Russian air defense are not shooting them down....

I swear you're using chatGPT or DeepSeek to write your posts....they are too composed ...everything screams AI.....from formatting to the way you organize information...etc

Ukraine just has to keep doing what it's doing and Russia will implode sooner than later....

but yea I get it....they'll get desperate and nuke Ukraine...or something something insert random subtle/veiled threat....

If we had a president with some balls this war would be going far better...

 

[Cid]

 

[Cid]

 

[SandisLL]

I'm from one of Russia's ethnic republics and I can tell you that the truth is more complex and favorable to the Kremlin than you might think:

• Since the war began, both pro-Russian patriotism and and separatism spiked, but pro-Russia patriotism is more prevalent
  • most separatist activity and movement comes from expatriates who don't have much credibility in Russia because they're living abroad (as a rebuttal, you can say that in Russia they wouldn't be able to organize effective activism because of repression, but I'm just examining facts here, not trying to express an opinion). It actually makes separatism look less dignified and authentic to people in the Republics because it has Western fingerprints all over it and doesn't seem to be in the best sincere interest of indigenous peoples
  • a lot of war crimes committed against ethnic minority soldiers in Ukraine by the UAF stoked strong feelings against Ukraine in the ethnic republics. Of course a patriotic Ukrainian might respond with "you came into our lands with guns, we reserve the right to defend ourselves however we want!!" but that doesn't seem to be enough for the republics
  • around 2018 Putin multiplied his attention to the Republics by 100X. Constantly addressing them, framing Russian history in a certain way, highlighting stars and heroes from those areas, etc. The star treatment that UFC fighters from Dagestan and Chechnya get from Russian authority and oligarchs is an example of this
    • there's 2 important variables with this: one of the pillars of the United Russia party of Putin rests on tapping into support from ethnic Republics in Russia. That is, Putin actually gets more support (as a percentage) from non ethnic Russians than from ethnic Russians. Part of the reason for this is when the ethnic republics see outreach and care from the regime like this, they can imagine that alternatives can only be worse (Yeltsin was a racist prick and nationalism in Russia is scary to ethnic minorities). The 2 benefits Putin gets from outreach to ethnic Republics are:
      • 1. support for his unchallenged political machine
      • 2. keeping separatism down
  • Another large variable is that, because of how the Kremlin frames this as a war against neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism domestically, it's like a lot of people in ethnic republics get the perception that they're fighting neo-Nazism/pseudo-Nazism at home by fighting it in Ukraine. The military propaganda in this situation is very similar to US military propaganda in Iraq. In fact, the way the Kremlin copied USA talking points to justify the military operation in Ukraine can come off as a way of saying "you did something like this without giving a good sincere explanation, now we are"

In Ukraine for Hitler had fought more russians than ukrainians.
Russians created tales about Bandera, anti polish anti Slovak oriented ukr propagandist ...
who advocated to create anarchists cells networks in Poland. Had been locked in prison cos this, later released by Hitler and relatively quickly locked again cos wanted independent Ukraine. Then before end of war had been released because usable was his propaganda activities against poles and Slovaks....

While Bandera didn't had any legal power on military units ... never had.

General Vlasov had legal power on army! Real army and more than this : he was traitor because agreed to serve for Hitler when he was still enlisted as USSR army General.


So why russians loves to talk how bad was civilian propagandist and ignore General Vlasov?
Because Vlasov was ethnic russian....

Real chauvinism and fake history stories.
It is russian history version btw.

Bandera was Ukrainian and commanded his mouth.
Vlasov was Russian and commanded divisions for Hitler ! In time when bad Bandera had been locked in prison cell.
Still it is nothing because Russian chauvinists does have their own history version ....

 

[SandisLL]

All these talks about nationalities and religions are for plebs.
Plebs should get fed with endless excuses and justifications, parasites should earn with talks and publications.

Witkopff told that better is to give Donetsk oblastj to Russia because there are mainly russian speakers.

Sorry, collective west and east sold all Ukraine long before 2022 th.
Cos business and nothing personal.

If about civies in these areas, yes, due to record high unemployment % for civies in areas near frontline ... and ofc beautiful unemployment % after 2014 th...

Sure from civies remained idiots, real burden for any country, pro russian dreamers and disabled or ill ppl etc.
So pro russian etc, should be sold to Russia.

Don't worry, Lvov too is mainly russian speaking and sooner or later will be Russia.
Cos west will sell, you will see.

All national excuses are for dumb plebs and brainwashed bread and butter, nothing more.

Ofc non unkainians Rinat, Igor, Rustam were ....yup, in Dumbass.
Two from these 3 even does knows Ukrainian language considerably lesser than English....

☆ ofc rulers loves to appease dumb % of their plebs , they does need unskilled meat, therefore better if plebs will know only russian ...then lesser ability for pleb to get job in another company etc , more dependence from masters and managers, lesser ability to develop career, easier to get such meat in trenches, better if meat will live in propaganda bubble and not read job ads in other countries etc...

Meat should be dumb.

 

[SandisLL]

From one point hardcore ukr national isolationists are big gift for Russia too.

For example : in all EU countries is easy to purchase or use in library book in russian original : Dostoyevsky Idiot.
beautiful book.

while some % of isolationists are yelling how bad is this book.
They want plebs to be idiots, and if they will read and study in depth " Idiot ", they never will be idiots.

 

[SandisLL]

I really reccomend to read this book.
Idiot.
It is awailable also in English translation but then a lot of meanings nuances will disappear.

It is beauty. Funny covered between lines scenes how society exist and is manipulated with. Masterpiece of literature in depth.
Ofc due to censorship messages were addressed in funny way.

Beautiful are also Bulgakov's books, approximately the same souce....

 

[Seano]

Too corrupt for EU.

NATO is American led. Much lower standards.

Ukraine was literally blocked from joining NATO for being too corrupt.

 

[ChessJitsu]

Great assessment if it's based on theoretical academic game theory ideas and not on what's actually happening in front of our eyes, real world data, not taking into account a senile retard for a president who's easily swayed back and forth by empty flattery, etc.

In just a couple months of sustained attacks Ukraine disabled 40% of Russian oil refining capacity and if Ukraine were to stop it today, it will take approximately 9 months for Russia to get back to its previous capacity.

Russians are out of tanks and are attacking on cheap Chinese motorcycles if they are lucky. They are using horses and donkeys.

Russia has not been able to take any major towns. Cities which were supposed to fall two years ago are still under Ukrainian control.

Russia is having an economic and financial collapse. It is running deficit spending 6 times what it projected for this year and it is projected 4 times for next year which of course means it will be far bigger if status quo continues.

Drones have effectively frozen the contact lines. Russia has no answer.

Ukraine will increase attacks on Russian energy infrastructure which will continue to disrupt the Russian way of life beyond having to wait for gas for hours on end.

Lets be clear, Ukraine doesn't even need Tomahawks and it will not cause any additional escalation. It's all bluster like US getting nuked if they gave Himars, Patriots, tanks, F16s, ammo, etc....

It's as if you think we're all retarded and you can write some nonsense that sounds good and maybe someone who doesn't follow the conflict at all would find plausible. But hey Stolen Valerino likes it so that's all that matters...

Just curious, is this an objective assessment or based on a Ukrainian/Western report?

We already know that both Ukraine's contingency and Russia's contingency spam propaganda for war purposes.

 

[ChessJitsu]

Some AI type rhetoric. Looks good but lacks reality.

Uhm, so first of all, I'm just reading/watching things from both sides and expressing an opinion.

Second of all, I don't understand your aggression towards me. I'm not saying bad things about Ukraine's desire for independence or sovereignty. Just expressing my assessment of things and you start being disrespectful towards me.

Anyone who's not a drunk or moron knows that ethnic minorities are treated as second and third class citizens. They are largely the ones dying in the war.

Ethnic minorities face a degree of discrimination in Russia, the whole situation is complex. The second statement is also complex. Initially there was Ukrainian/Western propaganda that said ethnic minorities were being disproportionately mobilized and killed in the war. Actual objective assessment and data doesn't seem to indicate that.

There's a lot to say about propaganda efforts from both sides that predate the war and are 1000X worse now.

Oh Russia glorified a couple Chechen or Dagestani fighters and that's your proof that Russia is making an outreach to the minorities?

Sure Russia is buying support in Chechnya but that's very expensive and when it is struggling financially now something will have to give and I suspect the subsidies will decrease substantially.

Your proof that ethnic Russians don't support Ukraine is what? Because there are numerous incidents where trains get derailed, refineries getting set on fire, etc...sure seems like partisans are quite active and can see through the Russian propaganda bullshit....

So again, there's a lot of layers here and I have a lot of thoughts but I'm not going to write out anything because it's going to be too much.

The second largest ethnic group in Russia is Ukrainians. There are also a lot of Ukrainian nationalists that cross the border into Russia and contribute to Ukraine's war effort from inside Russia because it's very easy for Ukrainians to fit inside Russia and be undistinguished. And yes, there's a minority of ethnic Russians that want Putin overthrown.

Most Russian people are not dumb and they know what's happening. There are many jokes in Russia to wait to confirm something when the government finally gets to denying it.

In like 2.5 months Ukraine knocked out 40 fucking percent of Russian refineries....could you cope any harder?

Russian planes are crashing out of the sky due to lack of parts and maintenance. ...that's when Russian air defense are not shooting them down....

I swear you're using chatGPT or DeepSeek to write your posts....they are too composed ...everything screams AI.....from formatting to the way you organize information...etc

Ukraine just has to keep doing what it's doing and Russia will implode sooner than later....

but yea I get it....they'll get desperate and nuke Ukraine...or something something insert random subtle/veiled threat....

If we had a president with some balls this war would be going far better...

I'm not as attached to my opinions as you are, I'm interested in truth and then I write out my thoughts. That's about it.

You're basically doing activism/propaganda work here.

If you're actually Ukrainian I completely understand and sympathize for you.

 

[DEVILsSON]

Just curious, is this an objective assessment or based on a Ukrainian/Western report?

We already know that both Ukraine's contingency and Russia's contingency spam propaganda for war purposes.

What do you consider "objective report"?

Russia is forced to import refined products from China. Russia is literally getting by China by first having to sell oil for a loss or perhaps at cost and then have to buy back refined gasoline products. Is this not objectively indicative of something going horribly wrong? This hasn't happened since like the 90s. That's like Saudis importing gasoline(beyond some schemes to make money).

There's gas rationing. 8-10 liters if you can get it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/02/russia-oil-refining-attacks-shortage/

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages

 

[ChessJitsu]

What do you consider "objective report"?

Russia is forced to import refined products from China. Russia is literally getting by China by first having to sell oil for a loss or perhaps at cost and then have to buy back refined gasoline products. Is this not objectively indicative of something going horribly wrong? This hasn't happened since like the 90s. That's like Saudis importing gasoline(beyond some schemes to make money).

There's gas rationing. 8-10 liters if you can get it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/02/russia-oil-refining-attacks-shortage/

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages

ok so you referenced 2 articles written by Ukrainians (Sergey Vakulenko and Mary Ilyushina) that say things like

For the moment, it’s unclear who will come out on top in the battle over Russia’s oil refineries—only time will tell. While the 38 percent figure may be based on real data, it’s a long way from accurately reflecting the nuance of the present situation.

And even then, the 38% assessment is based on real data, which isn't necessarily the same as it actually being 38%. Some oil refinery strikes are reported as successes by Ukraine might not actually be complete successes.

The trend during the war has been that Ukraine & the West lie and Russia lies and then the truth, in general, comes out to be 50/50, which is is a general pattern of war (propaganda is a weapon).

Don't get it wrong, it's an extremely significant trend in Ukraine's favor, the same way that Ukraine expanding the theater into Russia's pre-2014 borders has been, but question is whether it's going to change Russia's growing manpower & firepower advantage that will culminate in frontline collapses if it continues and we don't know if it will = the attitude and expressions of Trump, Zelensky, and Putin don't seem to suggest that they expect it to change the outcome of the war.

 

[ChessJitsu]

What do you consider "objective report"?

You can tell if you're reading something objective, honest, authentic, and sincere if you read things like "reported to be", "indications show", "the Ukrainian/Russian army claims", etc.

We literally don't know a lot of things. Things become apparent months/years after they happen.

It was like this in world war 2 too.

Hitler was actively convincing his population that Nazi Germany's victory was inevitable up until Germany was being marched into.