International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[PEB]

 

[Strychnine]

Russia can't replenish their tanks as fast as they need to.

 

[San Marino]

Could Zelinsky also end it? What conditions would need to be met?

Yes.
Conditions to be met would be:
1. Ukraine does not join NATO.
2. Ethnic Russian minority gets the same treatment as ethnic Ukrainians.
3. Russia gets to keep territory so far conquered in this conflict.
4. Zelensky steps down since his term is already over. Hold new elections without western influence (i.e. CIA).

Russians will win when they completely destroy the AFU and force an unconditional Kyiv capitulation. And to do that, they have to massively step up, this current tempo isn't very promising.

Russia has to destroy roughly 50% of the Ukrainian Army to win this conflict. The tempo is okay. Russia is slowly grinding away at the male Ukrainian population. Remember, no war has been declared on Ukraine by Russia. Millions of Russian soldiers are waiting in reserve.

Neither side is anywhere near running out of manpower.

Ukraine most certainly is. When did the Ukrainian male population become larger than the Russian male population? Have you checked the casualty figures for Ukraine since this conflict started? Do you really think Ukraine can keep on fighting for another 3 years?

There's no way that the E.U. would allow Putin to take all of Ukraine. It's not gonna happen.

What is the EU going to do? Nothing. What is the US going to do? Nothing.
Russia has nuclear weapons, Ukraine does not. Does either Europe or the United States willing to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine? Of course not. Putin does not want all of Ukraine. I've covered this before. Ethnic Russians in Ukraine are primarily concentrated in the Crimean Peninsula, the East, and South of the country, forming a notable fraction of the population in these regions.

* Remember, Joe Biden told Putin in 2022 that a 'small' military incursion into Ukraine would be okay with him (United States). How 'small?' You will have to ask Uncle Joe. Anything from the size of the state of Rhode Island to something the size of Texas. Uncle Joe would have a hard time defining 'small.'

 

[Strychnine]

Yes.
Conditions to be met would be:
1. Ukraine does not join NATO.
2. Ethnic Russian minority gets the same treatment as ethnic Ukrainians.
3. Russia gets to keep territory so far conquered in this conflict.
4. Zelensky steps down since his term is already over. Hold new elections without western influence (i.e. CIA).

Russia has to destroy roughly 50% of the Ukrainian Army to win this conflict. The tempo is okay. Russia is slowly grinding away at the male Ukrainian population. Remember, no war has been declared on Ukraine by Russia. Millions of Russian soldiers are waiting in reserve.

Ukraine most certainly is. When did the Ukrainian male population become larger than the Russian male population? Have you checked the casualty figures for Ukraine since this conflict started? Do you really think Ukraine can keep on fighting for another 3 years?

What is the EU going to do? Nothing. What is the US going to do? Nothing.
Russia has nuclear weapons, Ukraine does not. Does either Europe or the United States willing to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine? Of course not. Putin does not want all of Ukraine. I've covered this before. Ethnic Russians in Ukraine are primarily concentrated in the Crimean Peninsula, the East, and South of the country, forming a notable fraction of the population in these regions.

* Remember, Joe Biden told Putin in 2022 that a 'small' military incursion into Ukraine would be okay with him (United States). How 'small?' You will have to ask Uncle Joe. Anything from the size of the state of Rhode Island to something the size of Texas. Uncle Joe would have a hard time defining 'small.'

Russia doesn't get to dictate what Ukraine can or cannot do. If they do, then they're a puppet state of Russia and they're not a sovereign country. I don't see anyone in Ukraine or the EU going for that.

 

[San Marino]

ISW, 1 April 2025

• Russian forces are reportedly continuing to shell Ukrainian energy infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations over details of the ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure strikes.
• Senior Russian officials continue to reiterate the Russian demand for the elimination of the "root causes" of the war in Ukraine as a precondition for a peace agreement – a reference to Russia's initial war demands that directly contradict US President Donald Trump's goal to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.
• Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead northeast of Lyman as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to create conditions for the seizure of Borova and Lyman in the coming months.
• Russian forces can leverage their expanded bridgehead northeast of Lyman to support the seizure of Borova or Lyman in the coming months.
• Russian forces may also leverage their bridgehead northeast of Lyman to seize the remaining one percent of Luhansk Oblast under Ukrainian control and complete Russia's long-standing goal of seizing the entirety of Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts and in the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.

Things are not looking good for Ukraine. Russia can easily keep this up for another 3 years. Ukraine cannot. There will be no European or US ground intervention in this conflict.

 

[Strychnine]

Russia is Shanghaiing their "door-dashers" now! Yeah, that order for a vodka delivery could be a one-way ticket to the Ukrainian meat-grinder.


160,000 in a "Spring Conscription" in Russia. If you're in Russia right now....

 

[AmonTobin]

So Trump has failed to broker any peace deal. Ukraine needs to join NATO asap.

Putin begins biggest Russian military call-up in years​

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36718p52eyo

 

[San Marino]

Russia doesn't get to dictate what Ukraine can or cannot do.

Actually, they do. The winner always gets to dictate what they want.

If they do, then they're a puppet state of Russia and they're not a sovereign country. I don't see anyone in Ukraine or the EU going for that.

Putin (Russia) does not really care what Ukraine, Europe, or the United States think. Will the US or Europe start a nuclear war over Ukraine? Ukraine basically fucked their 'sovereignty' status when they chose to ignore Russian requests. Things could have gone much differently for Ukraine, but they chose the wrong path to follow, hence their current situation. The 'peace' ship between Russia and Ukraine sailed back in 2021.

Look at it like this:
The United States told the Soviet Union to not place nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962 or it would go to war. Cooler heads prevailing (mainly Nikita Khrushchev), war was avoided. The US had already antagonized the Soviets by placing nuclear missiles in Turkey and Italy. Ukraine did something similar by antagonizing Russia with NATO membership. Russia had already lost Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia to NATO.

 

[Strychnine]

Actually, they do. The winner always gets to dictate what they want.

Putin (Russia) does not really care what Ukraine, Europe, or the United States think. Will the US or Europe start a nuclear war over Ukraine? Ukraine basically fucked their 'sovereignty' status when they chose to ignore Russian requests. Things could have gone much differently for Ukraine, but they chose the wrong path to follow, hence their current situation. The 'peace' ship between Russia and Ukraine sailed back in 2021.

Look at it like this:
The United States told the Soviet Union to not place nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962 or it would go to war. Cooler heads prevailing (mainly Nikita Khrushchev), war was avoided. The US had already antagonized the Soviets by placing nuclear missiles in Turkey and Italy. Ukraine did something similar by antagonizing Russia with NATO membership. Russia had already lost Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia to NATO.

Russia hasn't won.

 

[San Marino]

160,000 in a "Spring Conscription" in Russia.

What is the Ukrainian Army doing in return?
Will they be able to get 160,000 male Ukrainians to join the Army?
I don't know the exact number, but a good portion of the male population in Ukraine has left the country. Also, a good portion of the soldiers in the Ukrainian Army have deserted. Why isn't the media covering this issue?

 

[San Marino]

Russia hasn't won.

Neither has Ukraine. Give it some time. Russia will come out on top.

 

[Strychnine]

What is the Ukrainian Army doing in return?
Will they be able to get 160,000 male Ukrainians to join the Army?
I don't know the exact number, but a good portion of the male population in Ukraine has left the country. Also, a good portion of the soldiers in the Ukrainian Army have deserted. Why isn't the media covering this issue?

Because the attacker suffers more casualties (Russia is closing in one Million) than the defender (Ukraine).

 

[San Marino]

Because the attacker suffers more casualties (Russia is closing in one Million) than the defender (Ukraine).

Yes. Your point being?
20% of Ukraine is already under Russian control. Another 6 months with the new offensive and that number should go up to 25%.
Come to think of it, were we (the US) not the attackers in Iraq in 2003? Did we suffer more casualties than the Iraqis?

 

[Strychnine]

Yes. Your point being?
20% of Ukraine is already under Russian control. Another 6 months with the new offensive and that number should go up to 25%.
Come to think of it, were we (the US) not the attackers in Iraq in 2003? Did we suffer more casualties than the Iraqis?

And at the current rate, it will take Russia over a century to take all of Ukraine.

Putin screwed Russia by attacking Ukraine.

 

[aerius]

And at the current rate, it will take Russia over a century to take all of Ukraine.

For a former military guy, you have a very poor idea of how wars of attrition work. The same thing was said back in early 1918; it would take 20-30 years to defeat the Germans at the current pace it was going. 10 months later the Germans were finished.

Wars of attrition move very slowly until one side takes critical losses, at which point the collapse happens fairly quickly. Ukraine is probably closer to that point than most people think, their air defence systems have been attrited to the point where the Russians don't even bother using missiles to hit ammo dumps, command centers, and other such targets, Geran drones are hitting them just fine whereas in the past almost all the drones would get shot down. They're also running low on artillery since most Russian casualties are now from FPV drones instead of shells. Rockets & missiles are almost out too, there hasn't been a Himars, Atacms, or Storm Shadow hit in quite some time, in the past there were hits almost every day.

No one knows when the Ukrainian army will finally break, might be this year, or it might take another 2-3 years. It sure as fuck ain't gonna last another 8-10 years.

 

[Strychnine]

For a former military guy, you have a very poor idea of how wars of attrition work. The same thing was said back in early 1918; it would take 20-30 years to defeat the Germans at the current pace it was going. 10 months later the Germans were finished.

Wars of attrition move very slowly until one side takes critical losses, at which point the collapse happens fairly quickly. Ukraine is probably closer to that point than most people think, their air defence systems have been attrited to the point where the Russians don't even bother using missiles to hit ammo dumps, command centers, and other such targets, Geran drones are hitting them just fine whereas in the past almost all the drones would get shot down. They're also running low on artillery since most Russian casualties are now from FPV drones instead of shells. Rockets & missiles are almost out too, there hasn't been a Himars, Atacms, or Storm Shadow hit in quite some time, in the past there were hits almost every day.

No one knows when the Ukrainian army will finally break, might be this year, or it might take another 2-3 years. It sure as fuck ain't gonna last another 8-10 years.

You're forgetting that...

The entirety of the EU is supporting Ukraine because they know that they're next on the menu.

 

[aerius]

You're forgetting that...

The entirety of the EU is supporting Ukraine because they know that they're next on the menu.

So what? The EU has already sent most of its missiles & artillery systems to the Ukraine where it's been destroyed. Poland, France, and the UK are all on the record as stating that they have less than a month's worth of supplies left if they have to fight a full scale war against Russia.

And if the US wants to get involved they'll get shit-kicked even worse than the Ukrainians, that's not my opinion, that's coming from the US Army War College.

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3240&context=parameters

The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities
in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace
casualties. Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained
rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action
to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.
With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will
require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained
about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same
number of casualties in two weeks.

3600 casualties per day is about 2.5 times what the Ukrainians are suffering right now.

 

[Strychnine]

So what? The EU has already sent most of its missiles & artillery systems to the Ukraine where it's been destroyed. Poland, France, and the UK are all on the record as stating that they have less than a month's worth of supplies left if they have to fight a full scale war against Russia.

And if the US wants to get involved they'll get shit-kicked even worse than the Ukrainians, that's not my opinion, that's coming from the US Army War College.

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3240&context=parameters

The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities
in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace
casualties. Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained
rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action
to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.
With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will
require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained
about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same
number of casualties in two weeks.

3600 casualties per day is about 2.5 times what the Ukrainians are suffering right now.

So what?

Ukraine WON'T quit and just let Putin rape her.

"Bbbbuubutt!!! People are dying!!!!"

Yes, and Putin can stop it all by withdrawing his invasion force. I'm not going to go against Ukraine for defending itself.

 

[SandisLL]

You're forgetting that...

The entirety of the EU is supporting Ukraine because they know that they're next on the menu.

They doesn't think like this at all.

While they does knows that they will have damn a lot of more refugees and immigrants if Ukr will go totally 404...more than this, reality is that if russia will completely occupy all Ukraine...then they never will be able yo get rid from them.

Ofc they also does fear that soon they will get more immigrants and refugees also from Moldova....

Therefore Ukr isn't world war I Geramny and will get money.

 

[SandisLL]

Ofc pro kremlin oriented west toghether with russia sooner or later will get in ukraine better for russians government.

Will force puppets maybe even to declare russian as 2 nd official language and otherwise appease russian masters - winners and best westerners friends.


However russians are completely stupid.
Hate and discrimination will only increase and thrre no government will prevent this.
Helpless dreamers....

Dreamers and dumb idits will live in their circles more and more isolated society .. .hate worldwide will only increas year by year.

Russians and ukrainians hate americans more and more...will hate even more. Also they are worldwide...what will happen with Ukr will not make sense for this.....