International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[PEB]

Networks already knew the answer just showing how much the oil industry owns the US. They know Russia will not resort to the bomb but are more worried about oil disruption impact on election cycle. They know how Republicans are using fuel costs to keep Trump an nuts like MTG in the game.

Putin also knows too an likely has a big IOU to Trump if he wins. All these things are tied to 2025 policy to do the massive shift an control an the largest complete loss of freedoms in history.

 

[Hog-train]

I don't know what to believe TBH with conflicting reports.

Some say Russia has ramped up to a wartime economy and can sustain the war for years.

Other reports say Russia is running out of tanks, IFV's and artillery and not replacing it fast enough.

 

[PEB]

I don't know what to believe TBH with conflicting reports.

Some say Russia has ramped up to a wartime economy and can sustain the war for years.

Other reports say Russia is running out of tanks, IFV's and artillery and not replacing it fast enough.

It's not the amount of tanks or artillery it's proven how ineffective tanks have become due to drone warfare an winged dumb bombs. Russia by some estimates had up to 4,000 tanks. But the use of tanks APC's have become easier to destroy.

Shooting these longer range glide bombs that are harder to shoot down an far cheaper create bigger problems. Russia building these things as fast as they can an they have potentially 1000's of these things. This is why wherever Ukraine can hit the planes launching these things is a good thing.

This explains the reason why Ukraine wants to hit inside of Russia where these planes are located an far harder to replace. This will better indicate where Ukraine stands.

 

[GhostZ06]

jesus christ thats reallllly close

 

[aerius]

I don't know what to believe TBH with conflicting reports.

Some say Russia has ramped up to a wartime economy and can sustain the war for years.

Other reports say Russia is running out of tanks, IFV's and artillery and not replacing it fast enough.

The sources which claim Russia will run out of X within months have been doing so for over 2 years. There's still no shortage of Russian arms of any sort.

It's like people don't know anything about how absolutely massive the Soviet military-industrial complex was, and how much of it still exists in Russia. I spent over 10 years of my career doing all kinds of fundamental analysis on the economic & manufacturing capabilities of China & its neighbours (CCP numbers are lies, and my employer wanted to know what was really going on), starting from energy & ore extraction and moving all the way up the production ladder.

I did a back of envelope calculation for Russia and it's really not good for the Ukrainians & NATO. Their production capacity is in the same ballpark as what the Russian MoD claims it is, in other words, Russia can completely replace their losses with margin to spare. Russia is far more industrialized than most people think, it actually produces more steel from iron ore than the US and it has more heavy forging presses for stamping out all kinds of parts such as gun barrels, aircraft landing gear, turbine shafts, and parts for more machine tools to speed up production. Thanks to its oil industry, it also has a huge petrochemical industry which produces all the chemicals needed for the explosives used in various weapons. With their natural resources & production capacity they're not going to run low on anything any time soon, and their economy will be just fine unless we can cut them off from China or find a replacement for oil & gas.

Or put it another way. This is just one of the dozens of factories cranking out ammo for the Russians. It's every bit as modern as anything in the Western world and probably cranks out as much ammo by itself as the Scranton plant in the US. These factories are literally everywhere in Russia, but especially in the Urals (thanks, Stalin).

 

[Nameless King]

I don't know what to believe TBH with conflicting reports.

Some say Russia has ramped up to a wartime economy and can sustain the war for years.

Other reports say Russia is running out of tanks, IFV's and artillery and not replacing it fast enough.

Massive disinformation on both sides. True is no one knows what is really going on. All these youtubers that sprung like mushroom after rain, so-called experts ain't got a clue.

Same with Putin having months to live back when Ukr war started. He shook his leg few times for fun and every specialist claims he got parkinson.

 

[SandisLL]

Networks already knew the answer just showing how much the oil industry owns the US. They know Russia will not resort to the bomb but are more worried about oil disruption impact on election cycle. They know how Republicans are using fuel costs to keep Trump an nuts like MTG in the game.

Putin also knows too an likely has a big IOU to Trump if he wins. All these things are tied to 2025 policy to do the massive shift an control an the largest complete loss of freedoms in history.

Best shit is that this year will be really " nice " elections for EP and some national and municipal level elections in europe where stuff like populists loudmouths from far right and far left wings really does have real chances.... cos usual public are idiots with memory for 4 months in best case regardless from their education or " education "....stuff not better than MAGA populists or commies populists. Commie in EU is rich and smart while brainwashing plebs electorate and laughing about their voters 24/7/365. The same about far right wings stuff. Exactly the same stuff

 

[SandisLL]

Massive disinformation on both sides. True is no one knows what is really going on. All these youtubers that sprung like mushroom after rain, so-called experts ain't got a clue.

Same with Putin having months to live back when Ukr war started. He shook his leg few times for fun and every specialist claims he got parkinson.

About counted KIA cases I really don't know how they were able to count these cos wild animals and birds are really very busy to utilize meat and ....not likely some side might had afforded to sent forensic experts till 0 zone / gray line in order just to count bodies....in reality no one cares if replacement is delivered and usable. No one in reality will care....this is real life.

About destroyed technique: these reports are really 10x more trustable than reports about KIA numbers.
While with taking in account that both sides are using also damn a lot of fake units of technique .....in order to waste out opponents firepower etc... and yup it is also in soviet doctrine too....

 

[AWilder]

The sources which claim Russia will run out of X within months have been doing so for over 2 years. There's still no shortage of Russian arms of any sort.

It's like people don't know anything about how absolutely massive the Soviet military-industrial complex was, and how much of it still exists in Russia. I spent over 10 years of my career doing all kinds of fundamental analysis on the economic & manufacturing capabilities of China & its neighbours (CCP numbers are lies, and my employer wanted to know what was really going on), starting from energy & ore extraction and moving all the way up the production ladder.

I did a back of envelope calculation for Russia and it's really not good for the Ukrainians & NATO. Their production capacity is in the same ballpark as what the Russian MoD claims it is, in other words, Russia can completely replace their losses with margin to spare. Russia is far more industrialized than most people think, it actually produces more steel from iron ore than the US and it has more heavy forging presses for stamping out all kinds of parts such as gun barrels, aircraft landing gear, turbine shafts, and parts for more machine tools to speed up production. Thanks to its oil industry, it also has a huge petrochemical industry which produces all the chemicals needed for the explosives used in various weapons. With their natural resources & production capacity they're not going to run low on anything any time soon, and their economy will be just fine unless we can cut them off from China or find a replacement for oil & gas.

Or put it another way. This is just one of the dozens of factories cranking out ammo for the Russians. It's every bit as modern as anything in the Western world and probably cranks out as much ammo by itself as the Scranton plant in the US. These factories are literally everywhere in Russia, but especially in the Urals (thanks, Stalin).

I think most intelligent pundits have been misunderstood. The message has been that Russia lacks the ability to keep up with losses. People have misunderstood that to mean Russia can't build a tank. They also don't produce much modern stuff. They are basically stuck in 1980 for the majority of their weapons. They like to add a Western guidance system to their old shit and call it new, but no one should be buying that nonsense anymore.

And a consequence of this war will also lead to no one buying their shitty weapons because they have proven to suck.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[SandisLL]

Ukraine wonders why they weren't provided with roadmap to start to step in NATO....
They had sold Russia strategic weapons in 1990 ies and had leased naval base for Russia in Crimea. While russian nationalists and Communists are thinking that all Ukraine is Russia and Communists are in open texts dreaming about as bar minimum tanks installed In Berlin...as bare minimum to statisfy part of Russian world .....

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[SandisLL]

I think most intelligent pundits have been misunderstood. The message has been that Russia lacks the ability to keep up with losses. People have misunderstood that to mean Russia can't build a tank. They also don't produce much modern stuff. They are basically stuck in 1980 for the majority of their weapons. They like to add a Western guidance system to their old shit and call it new, but no one should be buying that nonsense anymore.

And a consequence of this war will also lead to no one buying their shitty weapons because they have proven to suck.

The same inbecile and stupid according to russians europe didn't had freezed till death etc and appeared to e capable to support Ukr and russians in parasha mainly are using insuline produced in dying and hated EU like more than 90% spare parts used in their uranium enrichment centrifuges..
..it is time here to introduce sanctions for these supplies yesterday. Including ban to export antibiotics etc to Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and etc kind of Kremlin's friends. Today. Ukraine is clown show ...pro Kremlin oriented milking masters in cow farm. They ensured russian natural gas and crude oil transit despite war while de facto after December 2022 th Europe might easily cope with this for a reason.
Zelensky administration with this had denied us to use pressure tools on Orban and other pro Kremlin oriented politicians In EU ....and Zelensky & Ermak are personally responsible for their money hungry pussies attitude and b..ING beyond borders with money hungry shit approach.

 

[SandisLL]

One question there is : will russian friend and comrade Biden allow to use use U.S supplied weapons on their business partners matushka Russia or no. Everyone with a bit of brains does knows how much Donald and Joe loves Russia in reality....and for Ukr will not matter who will win POTUS elections. Ukr is done deal ....anyway and for business reason. While for europe Biden will be better for short time.

 

[Bacco]

I don't know what to believe TBH with conflicting reports.

Some say Russia has ramped up to a wartime economy and can sustain the war for years.

For sure one thing this war proven is the combo of good old propaganda with the modern ability to follow it with internet can be confusing as fuck lol

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Cid]

I think most intelligent pundits have been misunderstood. The message has been that Russia lacks the ability to keep up with losses. People have misunderstood that to mean Russia can't build a tank. They also don't produce much modern stuff. They are basically stuck in 1980 for the majority of their weapons. They like to add a Western guidance system to their old shit and call it new, but no one should be buying that nonsense anymore.

And a consequence of this war will also lead to no one buying their shitty weapons because they have proven to suck.

Cheap and plentiful without the plentiful.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Massive disinformation on both sides. True is no one knows what is really going on. All these youtubers that sprung like mushroom after rain, so-called experts ain't got a clue.

Same with Putin having months to live back when Ukr war started. He shook his leg few times for fun and every specialist claims he got parkinson.

Very true, russians of course lie by nature but UKR you tubers have a few really bad ones too. Divine Justice , The enforcer and even times radio spew a ton of BS. When the headline reads "its all over" you know to skip that load of crap.

Ukraine wonders why they weren't provided with roadmap to start to step in NATO....
They had sold Russia strategic weapons in 1990 ies and had leased naval base for Russia in Crimea. While russian nationalists and Communists are thinking that all Ukraine is Russia and Communists are in open texts dreaming about as bar minimum tanks installed In Berlin...as bare minimum to statisfy part of Russian world .....

Jake Broe showed a clip today of professor Timothy Synder saying we are almost like's it's 1938 agains where Hitler invaded the czech but they didnt fight back even tho they could have because at the time they had a strong army. Hitler went on to seize their military and resources going forward making them stronger. Difference is in 2022, UKR is fighting back, imagine if he would have taken UKR in the days and weeks that he thought would have happened. He could have conscripted a massive army and resources before he moved on to Baltics ,Maldova and then Poland all while the West played political games.

 

[Cid]

MALD is going to be very valuable once F-16's arrive.

 

[Cole train]

For sure one thing this war proven is the combo of good old propaganda with the modern ability to follow it with internet can be confusing as fuck lol

Guy i posted on last page said problem with media in west regarding this conflict is they show best ukrainian units and worst russian ones

Its a lot closer on ground in reality according to him