International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[PEB]

 

[syct23]

When are they going to make a kamakazi cocktail drone..?

Attach a gallon or more of some Greek Fire onto a drone and smash it into some armor, cook ‘em from the outside..

 

[SandisLL]

This doesnt address the problem that theyre migs and Sus are insanely old

According to Russian propagandists Ukraine had been armed till teeth by evil NATO.
While in reality they had airplanes manufactured in USSR in 1970-1992 th and nor upgraded. Mig s from Poland they had get were upgraded a bit .while airframes with huge mileage and therefore Poland had opted for F ....

 

[Strychnine]

 

[SandisLL]

Biden's administration might supply Ukr at least with 3,5 m old Cold War era shells and europe too... if they wanted to help Ukraine in reality not in loud and nice talks.

 

[SandisLL]

Belgium is small country and still during Cold War they had approx 100 tanks with 105 mm rifled guns. This on paper means ( and then was reality ) that they should have wartime stockpiles at least 100×1500 shells for these and usually 1/3 should be Anti infantry etc stuff.
105 mm rifled high pressure guns are even more effective in long range indirect fire support with cheap shells than modern 120 mm smoothbore guns used for tanks....

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Probably longer than Ukraine will get supplies from the West.

To Putin, this is existential. To the West, this is about money and politics. Putin is willing to bankrupt Russia to win.

I agree with your statement about Russia, But as we seen the EU and others have a lot of interest in UKR also as Russia has become a threat to Europe and they dont want them to take land while others take a knee to Putin.
russia is a pressure cooker right now and I'm sure Putler stays out of any possible ways to get taken out as most realize he is finishing off the country.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

That's true but still not main point
Crimea and east likely are gone, position to reach is have rest of Ukraine under real NATO's protection, because seems clear war done with simple western support can't stop Putin but just slow him down


The problem (well, one of problems) to me seems Russia's superior ability at buil up defense in conquered territories


That's the problem with western support, it's like west wish was possible keep going 50% (while attempting to please all internal bullshit) at it and win, while at this point should be clear it's not going to happen and we even get outraged at daily predictable outcome (helping the argument of pieces of shit that wish we abandon/betray Ukraine)

Seems like our support still is proportionate to that "at some point russians will end energies/weapons and our half ass help will be enough to allow ukranian meat to win", problem with this is that will work if ukranians had strong safer defense positions and russia was daily destroying itself attacking, but we know in reality Ukraine forces are getting deteriorated at least as fast as russian's
May even be true that west may keep pump there money/toys till an "advantage", but on human side they're not sending there fresh new soldiers while russian storage of new bodies seems still immense



I think you're overestimating "Team West" ability to work functionally picking our most desireable outcome

EU is a farce composed of lot different interests
USA situation is a mess where the mummy vs traitor cunt contest seems more important

To begin with good luck at make everybody agree on wich is our most desireable outcome to begin with, let alone run a straight line to reach it


This for China is not best scenario (would have preferred Russia not doing any of this Ukraine invasion shit) but indeed best scenario given current cards

For the west is some sort of "bright side" of a situation that overall is shaping up as a defeat
And i'm not even talking about Ukraine itself
To me it is, but some would say Finland and Sweden joining NATO compensate
But most big shit is realize (very predictable, but different see it happen) how our model of power is too complex to move fast and hard, and this risk in long run to result into many many "small defeats" that can be played down by our leaders as long one does'nt consider all these as a whole huge problem

All this while would have been much better find a fast solution (sound simplistic but it is what it is) to take a strong defensive stance, because in upcoming years we have worse problems that have nothing to do with Putin (but that Putin can and will make worse, see his presence in Africa)

West is obtusely sticking to the sinking boat of peace-time "values" and attitude, while world is changing fast

Russia sure did a good job on defensive lines as they will literally shoot any retreaters who wont hold the line. Crazy what they will sacrifice to keep their stolen land.

 

[Nameless King]

 

[SandisLL]

Russia sure did a good job on defensive lines as they will literally shoot any retreaters who wont hold the line. Crazy what they will sacrifice to keep their stolen land.

There also reality that Russia and Ukraine had damn huge stockpiles of different mines.
When Gorbachev era had been till end Russia had 100 000 000 - 165 000 000 Anti tank mines...and not lesser number of Anti infantry mines..
A lot of this stuff is now installed in dumbass ....add here IEDs beauty , Bobby traps etc...
It is really horrible war....awful and in majority of cases you don't see your opponent in face....

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Russia sees 'window of opportunity' as Ukrainian forces await US weapons​

LONDON —
Russian forces are expanding their attacks on Ukrainian border settlements close to the northeastern city of Kharkiv, opening up a new front in the war, as Kyiv struggles to hold off a renewed Russian offensive.

Speaking Thursday on a visit to Kharkiv, where he held a meeting with senior military leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the situation remained “extremely difficult” and that his forces were strengthening their presence in the region.

With U.S. and European weapons finally due to arrive on the front lines in the coming weeks, can Ukraine hold back Moscow’s invading troops?

Kharkiv offensive

Mobile units of Russian troops are attempting to capture Ukrainian villages including Vovchansk and Lyptsi, which lies 30 kilometers north of Kharkiv.

Ukraine has fired missiles from the border region into Russia, including deadly strikes on the Russian city of Belgorod. Moscow wants to stop the attacks, said defense analyst Patrick Bury of Britain’s Bath University.

“There's multiple reasons, I think, why Russia would try something here: obviously to create a buffer zone, but also to test the defenses and see what's going on. But the way (Russian forces) are set up — and the amount of troops that they have, maybe 30,000 to 40,000, not that much armor, attacking in small groups of infantry — it doesn't really suggest that they're trying to sort of encircle Kharkiv or anything like that,” Bury told VOA.

Russian advance

Kyiv said Thursday its defensive moves had slowed the speed of Moscow’s advance. Russian attacks are likely to continue, said analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“Russia’s aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough, but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometer by kilometer, along the front,” Watling wrote in an email to VOA.

“Having stretched the Ukrainians out, the contours of the Russian summer offensive are easy to discern. First, there will be the push against Kharkiv. Ukraine must commit troops to defend its second largest city and given the size of the Russian group of forces in the area, this will draw in reserves of critical material, from air defenses to artillery.”

“Second, Russia will apply pressure on the other end of the line, initially threatening to reverse Ukraine’s gains from its 2023 offensive, and secondly putting at risk the city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine should be able to blunt this attack, but this will require the commitment of reserve units,” Watling added.

Western weapons

Ukrainian forces are still waiting for the bulk of the weapons deliveries under the United States’ $60 billion aid package that was finally passed last month, after a six-month delay.

“The United States aid is crucial, so the unfortunate pause in the delivery of arms had a significant impact on the situation at the front and this is what we are seeing now,” said Ukrainian lawmaker Serhii Rakhmanin, a member of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security.

Ukraine says Russian jets and missiles are easily able to attack their positions, before infantry move in. Kyiv has repeatedly asked for more air defense systems, especially U.S.-made Patriot missiles. Germany has agreed to supply two Patriot batteries to Ukraine, and it’s reported that the U.S. is also working on supplying another unit.

The weapons will start to arrive in the coming weeks, analyst Patrick Bury said.

“The U.S. has pre-positioned stocks of stuff in Germany, for example, and also has strategic airlift so it can move stuff quickly over (from the US) should it need to,” he said.

“But it will take some time to be producing the number of shells that Ukraine needs at the moment, and they're outgunned at about at least five or six to one at the moment by Russian shells,” he added.

Mobilization

Last month, Ukraine passed a mobilization bill to address a shortage of personnel. RUSI’s Watling said Russia had amassed a force of 510,000 troops.

“This means that Russia has established significant numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” he said.

The next three months will be crucial for Ukraine, according to lawmaker Rakhmanin.

“The Russians currently have a window of opportunity. The power of Ukrainian Armed Forces has decreased, and Russians feel it. They have amassed quite a sufficient amount of resources — weapons, ammunition, manpower and now they are trying to use up a maximum of their reserves. They are trying to spread our forces thin across the entire front line,” Rakhmanin told Reuters Wednesday.

Bleak outlook

Can Ukraine and its Western allies turn the tide of the war?

“The chances of them taking back significant territory now in the medium term seem to be slipping away,” said analyst Bury. “Unless there’s some sort of step change in Western support — a large force-generation package and a long-term strategy for what success looks like — none of which at the moment are forthcoming, then I think Ukraine stays on the defensive and holds what it has,” he said.

RUSI’s Watling agrees: “The outlook in Ukraine is bleak. However, if Ukraine’s allies engage now to replenish Ukrainian munitions stockpiles, help to establish a robust training pipeline, and make the industrial investments to sustain the effort, then Russia’s summer offensive can be blunted, and Ukraine will receive the breathing space it needs to regain the initiative.”

https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-se...krainian-forces-await-us-weapons/7615218.html

 

[Siver!]

Russia gives British diplomat Adrian Coghill a week to leave Moscow

The expulsion of Capt Adrian Coghill comes after his counterpart was removed from Britain last week.

www.bbc.co.uk

A British diplomat has been given a week to leave Russia in an escalation of a diplomatic spat over spying.
The Russian foreign ministry said in a statement the removal of Capt Adrian Coghill was in response to "unfriendly anti-Russian actions" from Britain.
On 8 May, external, the Russian defence attache was expelled from London for alleged espionage as an "undeclared military intelligence officer".
Russia says its response "does not end with this measure".
It added the "initiators of the escalation will be informed about further retaliatory steps".
It was inevitable following the UK's earlier announcement that Russia would declare Capt Coghill, a Royal Naval officer and Britain's defence attache based at the embassy in Moscow, persona non grata.
Russian statecraft follows closely the principle of proportionality, which means for every tit, there must be a tat.
So British diplomats in Moscow will expect further constraints.
All this would have been taken into account when the government decided last week to crackdown on Russian espionage in the UK.
Ministers would have decided that the loss of Britain's defence expert in the embassy in Moscow was worth the gain of disrupting Russian activities in the UK.
Writing on X, previously known as Twitter, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps called the expulsion by Russia a "desperate move".
He said Russia's only issue with Capt Coghill was that he "personified the UK's unwavering support for Ukraine in the face of his illegal and barbaric invasion".
The removal of Col Maxim Elovik was among a number of other measures announced by the Home Office, Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence - as part of plans to "tighten defences against alleged malign activity by Russia" across Europe.

In April, five people were charged over conspiring to commit espionage activities in the UK on behalf of Russia under the National Security Act, the first prosecutions of this kind under the new laws.
Another of the measures included the removal of diplomatic premises status from several Russian properties in the UK - including in Sussex and Highgate, which officials believe had been used for "intelligence purposes".
Russian diplomatic visas were also affected, with restrictions including a cap on the length of time holders can spend in the UK.
Last week, Home Secretary James Cleverly said Moscow would make accusations of "Russophobia" while spreading "conspiracy theories and hysteria".
Col Maxim Elovik appears to have been in the UK since at least 2014.
Prior to his posting in London, Col Elovik served as an assistant military attache at Russia's embassy in Washington DC.
BBC News has contacted the Foreign Office for a response.

---



Russia are so bad at PR, I honestly wonder how anyone falls for it.

 

[Strychnine]

Listening to the Thom Hartmann show today and he was speaking with Phillip Ittner (U.S. war correspondent in Ukraine). While some people in the media were laughing at Sec. Blinken "playing" his guitar, they weren't privy to the reason why he was there.

Ittner stated that he had a source (unnamed) that was VERY close to the leadership in Ukraine. He reported that Sec. Blinken said U.S. weapons would be given to Ukraine with NO RESTRICTIONS. Ukraine can use the weapons as they see fit.

 

[Siver!]

Listening to the Thom Hartmann show today and he was speaking with Phillip Ittner (U.S. war correspondent in Ukraine). While some people in the media were laughing at Sec. Blinken "playing" his guitar, they weren't privy to the reason why he was there.

Ittner stated that he had a source (unnamed) that was VERY close to the leadership in Ukraine. He reported that Sec. Blinken said U.S. weapons would be given to Ukraine with NO RESTRICTIONS. Ukraine can use the weapons as they see fit.

Excellent.

UK said the same thing earlier, I guess foreshadowing this decision.

Putin on borrowed time here. There's no way he can come out of this looking good if his shitty war is jeopardising his own country. Even annexing a few Ukrainian territories isn't worth this. And if he goes tactical nuclear, he loses even worse.

 

[SandisLL]

That's true but still not main point
Crimea and east likely are gone, position to reach is have rest of Ukraine under real NATO's protection, because seems clear war done with simple western support can't stop Putin but just slow him down


The problem (well, one of problems) to me seems Russia's superior ability at buil up defense in conquered territories


That's the problem with western support, it's like west wish was possible keep going 50% (while attempting to please all internal bullshit) at it and win, while at this point should be clear it's not going to happen and we even get outraged at daily predictable outcome (helping the argument of pieces of shit that wish we abandon/betray Ukraine)

Seems like our support still is proportionate to that "at some point russians will end energies/weapons and our half ass help will be enough to allow ukranian meat to win", problem with this is that will work if ukranians had strong safer defense positions and russia was daily destroying itself attacking, but we know in reality Ukraine forces are getting deteriorated at least as fast as russian's
May even be true that west may keep pump there money/toys till an "advantage", but on human side they're not sending there fresh new soldiers while russian storage of new bodies seems still immense



I think you're overestimating "Team West" ability to work functionally picking our most desireable outcome

EU is a farce composed of lot different interests
USA situation is a mess where the mummy vs traitor cunt contest seems more important

To begin with good luck at make everybody agree on wich is our most desireable outcome to begin with, let alone run a straight line to reach it


This for China is not best scenario (would have preferred Russia not doing any of this Ukraine invasion shit) but indeed best scenario given current cards

For the west is some sort of "bright side" of a situation that overall is shaping up as a defeat
And i'm not even talking about Ukraine itself
To me it is, but some would say Finland and Sweden joining NATO compensate
But most big shit is realize (very predictable, but different see it happen) how our model of power is too complex to move fast and hard, and this risk in long run to result into many many "small defeats" that can be played down by our leaders as long one does'nt consider all these as a whole huge problem

All this while would have been much better find a fast solution (sound simplistic but it is what it is) to take a strong defensive stance, because in upcoming years we have worse problems that have nothing to do with Putin (but that Putin can and will make worse, see his presence in Africa)

West is obtusely sticking to the sinking boat of peace-time "values" and attitude, while world is changing fast

With EU countries possible support for Ukraine there are nuances and also how they are reporting support ... one thing is from collective funding via EC/ EP, other things are loans and warrant letters for Ukr loans, NEXT thing is support given on individual basis via grants, loans etc etc ...

While foe example Orban and Fico for sure might not allow next portion from EC/ EP to get approwed and deny Ukr access to EU membership ( cos all countries should vote YES ) .....
● They can't impact decisions made by other countries on individual decision basis IF centralized funding isn't used.
■ Hungary isn't full ECB member because they doesn't have EUR as national currency.
Therefore from one side ECB doesn't have enough impact tools on Hungary, from other side ECB might even not listen what stuff Hungary might tell. Etc.

 

[Strychnine]

Excellent.

UK said the same thing earlier, I guess foreshadowing this decision.

Putin on borrowed time here. There's no way he can come out of this looking good if his shitty war is jeopardising his own country. Even annexing a few Ukrainian territories isn't worth this. And if he goes tactical nuclear, he loses even worse.

Pres. Biden has stated that if Russia goes nuclear, then every piece of Russian military equipment outside of Russia will be destroyed.

That includes Ukraine. If Russia is getting slapped by the Ukrainians, then they'll get smoked by the U.S. and that's not even NATO.

 

[Siver!]

Pres. Biden has stated that if Russia goes nuclear, then every piece of Russian military equipment outside of Russia will be destroyed.

That includes Ukraine. If Russia is getting slapped by the Ukrainians, then they'll get smoked by the U.S. and that's not even NATO.

Russia assuredly won't go nuclear, not even tactical, and these reassurances are welcome in the face of nonsensical sabre rattling and prattling from a despot.

Unless they behave like a toddler pushing boundaries and go for the smallest possible warhead or something.

In which case, I still hope Biden goes medieval on the Kremlin.

 

[Bacco]

Russia sure did a good job on defensive lines as they will literally shoot any retreaters who wont hold the line. Crazy what they will sacrifice to keep their stolen land.

Sure Putin does'nt mind throw bodies and bodies there, but i was more thinking at russian's ability to turn occupied land into bunch of layers of hell you have to go through if you're attacking, think how much ukranian blood took the disastrous offensive... they made huge minefields, fortifications etc if i remember correctly

Sure ukranians likely lacked the toys to do their offensive in most correct way*, but we have to give credit to russiam ability at that

By contrast think to remember not long ago ukranian themselves complaining about their own barricades not being enough for the task


*and i believe there was also the issue was attack despite not ideal condition but to show "activity" to western nations in order to keep the pro-Ukraine enthusiasm and relative support alive... a strategy that provn to be bad on the field, but at same time i honestly can't blame them either as western help seems indeed fueled by drama/public opinion rather than logic and strategy.
So maybe without the offensive they would surely have saved many ukranian lives, but at same time a defensive stall could have turned western politicians even slower in their support

 

[SandisLL]

Ukraine managed to do successful strike in Crimea. S-400 system had been attacked and radar is smashed into peaces ....other damages too had happened while no precise info what stuff had been damaged.
Putin looks that already had ordered quickly to replace this radar....

 

[Cid]