International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Strychnine]

The area around Avidiivka is "ambush alley" now for the Russians.




About those jets being shot down that someone here disputes.

 

[lsa]

Good luck with your wishful thinking.

????
Dear lord...
I give you the DANES view point
and some how I am having the head in the sand?

I have NOT given MY opinion I gave you the DANES opinion based on me actually have lived in the country speak the language and read danish news daily..


But hey you know better what the Danes thinks and knows...

This is google translated straight from Danish FE (Danish Defence Intelligence Service)
"It is possible that Russia will also intensify its use of hybrid instruments, especially influence campaigns, towards the Baltic Sea countries. It applies first and
mainly the Baltic countries, but Denmark can too be affected by influence campaigns. Russia wants to join highly likely to continue to be aware that avoid the military activities and use of hybrid instruments in the Baltic Sea region will trigger
NATO's Article 5 on the alliance's collective
defense obligation."

Now show me a single source to "they (the danes) knows they are next on the menu"....

 

[Cole train]

Ok..
I will try one more time..
You claim the Danes knows they are next on the menu.
I claim this is not the Danish view...
I only give you the Danish view which is they are not next on the menu.

The Danes point to, if Russia attack it will be the Baltic countries that are probably next (Not Denmark..). There is no direct worries or fear that Russia will attack Denmark in a near future.
(And as I said that differs a lot from Sweden and the Swedish view on the near future.)

So the claim "they know they are next on the menu" is wrong. If you follow danish news and politics... which I do.

I have made no comment on if Russia will attack Denmark or any other country I simple gave you the danish opinion on the matter...

I hope this clears it up.

I actually wonder why everyone thinks baltics are next

If russia goes for baltics, then you have finnish military which actually has offensive ability (limited but enough to give threat to saint pete) which will likely go in because fin cant let estonia get taken due to location reasons

In my head it makes sense to ko finland first then go for baltics since there will be no nearby support since swedish and norwegian military has no offensive ability, (shit they barely exist) and poland can be blocked via belarus/captured ukraine if they lose war

 

[lsa]

I actually wonder why everyone thinks baltics are next

If russia goes for baltics, then you have finnish military which actually has offensive ability (limited but enough to give threat to saint pete) which will likely go in because fin cant let estonia get taken due to location reasons

In my head it makes sense to ko finland first then go for baltics since there will be no nearby support since swedish and norwegian military has no offensive ability, (shit they barely exist) and poland can be blocked via belarus/captured ukraine if they lose war

I just read the latest report from Danish Military Intelligence and they mention the Baltic's again, as most likely target.
They believe Russia will try things they do not see as war, to not trigger article 5.

I think the Baltic is because its old Soviet and easy to go in.
Finland is another ball game.
It will take time for troops and defense to reach the 3 countries and probably more Russians / Russia supporters and easy to just roll over the boarder.
But no idea.
Could also go Moldova..

But personally I also see the Baltics as more exposed and a potential target than the other baltic sea countries.

 

[Orgasmo]

Remember that Russian pilot that defected to Ukraine with the latest version of Mi-8 last year? He got whacked in Spain, likely by Russian agents.

Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR), confirmed to Kyiv Post the death of Russian pilot Kuzminov, who seized control of a Russian armoured combat Mi-8 helicopter and brought it safely to an airbase in the Kharkiv region back in August of 2023.

"We can confirm the fact of death," Yusov told Kyiv Post, providing no additional details.

Russian state media said Kuzminov shot dead two of his crewmates before landing in Ukraine.

Russian Defector Helicopter Pilot Shot Dead in Spain, HUR confirms

28-year-old Captain Maxim Kuzminov seized control of a Russian armored combat Mi-8 helicopter and brought it safely to an airbase in the Kharkiv region in August of 2023.

www.kyivpost.com

Russian defector who flew Putin's chopper to Ukraine 'found shot dead in Spain’

A RUSSIAN pilot who defected to Ukraine with an Mi-8 armoured helicopter has been shot dead in Spain sparking fears of another Kremlin murder. Maxim Kuzminov, 33, was found with multiple gunshot wo…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[LangfordBarrow]

are you dumb or you have reading comprehension issues ?

I told you Russia was ready to accept Zelensky’s regime, have no issues with them joining EU, give them Donbass back in exchange for NATO neutrality and accepting the Crimea status under Russia.

What’s been happening since March 2022 is only on US/UK and Zelensky

It was Putin that invaded so it's all on him.

 

[Rod1]

I actually wonder why everyone thinks baltics are next

Because they are the weakest military so Russia probably believes they can take them out before Westerners can intervene and thus create a fait accompli scenario where Western leaders will have to decide whether save the Baltics or risk nuclear war.

 

[Strychnine]

????
Dear lord...
I give you the DANES view point
and some how I am having the head in the sand?

I have NOT given MY opinion I gave you the DANES opinion based on me actually have lived in the country speak the language and read danish news daily..


But hey you know better what the Danes thinks and knows...

This is google translated straight from Danish FE (Danish Defence Intelligence Service)
"It is possible that Russia will also intensify its use of hybrid instruments, especially influence campaigns, towards the Baltic Sea countries. It applies first and
mainly the Baltic countries, but Denmark can too be affected by influence campaigns. Russia wants to join highly likely to continue to be aware that avoid the military activities and use of hybrid instruments in the Baltic Sea region will trigger
NATO's Article 5 on the alliance's collective
defense obligation."

Now show me a single source to "they (the danes) knows they are next on the menu"....

Let's hope you're right. Yeah... Let's hope.

Because THAT will stop Russia from expanding West.

 

[Cole train]

Because they are the weakest military so Russia probably believes they can take them out before Westerners can intervene and thus create a fait accompli scenario where Western leaders will have to decide whether save the Baltics or risk nuclear war.

True enough

I just figured since my country cant let estonia go it pretty much means go time here as well


Buuut we shall see

 

[Rod1]

True enough

I just figured since my country cant let estonia go it pretty much means go time here as well


Buuut we shall see

If Russia were to try to fuck up Finland, they would get a very sound beating, i doubt they take an inch of land, especially now that they can rely on NATO air support.

Russia knows the West would never invade Russia even in the case of a hot war due to nuclear weapons, so Russia's best bet always was a flash war and then negotiations before NATO can even react.

Either scenario has been long fucking gone, and it will be impossible once NATO bases pop up in Finland.

 

[SandisLL]

I just read the latest report from Danish Military Intelligence and they mention the Baltic's again, as most likely target.
They believe Russia will try things they do not see as war, to not trigger article 5.

I think the Baltic is because its old Soviet and easy to go in.
Finland is another ball game.
It will take time for troops and defense to reach the 3 countries and probably more Russians / Russia supporters and easy to just roll over the boarder.
But no idea.
Could also go Moldova..

But personally I also see the Baltics as more exposed and a potential target than the other baltic sea countries.

Will be Moldova cos it is very lucrative: separatists controlled area with tunnels and bunkers already exists 30 years in row, weapons warehouses full with ammo and .....separatists are poor and in huge dependence from russian support.
Also in Moldova unemployment is high and salaries low so.... cheaper to hire traitors, provocators and hooligans.
Damn, they might induce internal war in Moldova even without sending in troops....m
Then Moldova will be prevented to get in EU for decade or longer...EU filled with more refugees and Russia might play innocent face ....

I know that russia is spreading narrative like they want Baltic countries and after this will calm down....It will not happen because it is risky to get in not " super easy " and it is worth only IF large scale war in Europe is scheduled.

For example from Estonia is easy to shell Finland with cheap missiles at low cost and sitting on ground.
While Estonia easily might destroy Narva HPP dam and Ivangorod ....quickly.....
Lithuania does have Suwalki corridor but also there are communications Russia and Belarus needs and...they might shell Belarus Nuclear Power plant's transformators and backup generators with arty and 0 jamming will help.....
Also for mining industry even single Luhansk region is more worth......so worth to capture....

Ofc Russia will do hybrid war against Baltic countries and they are doing this since 2008 th...

While average russians in these are more wealthy than in russia and old commies are dying out cos old age. New generation maonly is about money and comfort .....so to hire these to fight is difficult...
Ofc some diversants and provocators they might hire but nothing on big scale....
Also a lot of russians are relocating to Germany etc so their % is owerrated by rus propaganda. Usually tool is to count even Ukr and others as " russian speakers "....
Some western " journalists " easy to buy claim that in city are 41% russians while in reality 24,5 % etc nuances.

Also a lot of them are mercantile and doesn't want russia's level salaries and pensions....

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[lsa]

Let's hope you're right. Yeah... Let's hope

For the love of god.. This is not about me being right.
I have not posted my opinion..
I have simply posted info that the Danes does not as YOU claimed know "they are next on the menu".
Btw I am waiting for a source on that claim.

"Hope you are right"....
Also its amazing that you somehow disbelieve the Danish Military Intelligence when it comes to what the Danes KNOWS about the Russian threat to them.
But as I said.. You know better. Derp

I am out of here it has been... embarrassing
I for one will stop giving any insight to the Nordics on the subject.
Its clearly a poster that have lived in 3 of the countries and worked in 4 of them, dont know shit and should not be trusted.

My god what a joke.

 

[SandisLL]

This is reality that Russia is starting to loss more airplanes but reason isn't fun for Ukraine: looks that in some areas they does have shortage of air defense missiles. Therefore rus is more and more using aviation to drop gliding bombs and now also simple bombs...
This ofc means that sometimes they get catched and downed while owerall Russia is increasing aviation usage....and looks that had delivered in dumbass more gliding bombs for use...

 

[Strychnine]

For the love of god.. This is not about me being right.
I have not posted my opinion..
I have simply posted info that the Danes does not as YOU claimed know "they are next on the menu".
Btw I am waiting for a source on that claim.

"Hope you are right"....
Also its amazing that you somehow disbelieve the Danish Military Intelligence when it comes to what the Danes KNOWS about the Russian threat to them.
But as I said.. You know better. Derp

I am out of here it has been... embarrassing
I for one will stop giving any insight to the Nordics on the subject.
Its clearly a poster that have lived in 3 of the countries and worked in 4 of them, dont know shit and should not be trusted.

My god what a joke.

I was stationed in Europe and travelled in theater extensively before you were in kindergarten.

Have a nice day.

 

[SandisLL]

Denmark isn't next on the table but for longer term is...because huge sabotages and diversions risks...hybrid war risks, espionage risks, if war will be large troops might reach Denmark ....or at least shell Bornholm etc with missiles.

 

[Strychnine]

Denmark isn't next on the table but for longer term is...because huge sabotages and diversions risks...hybrid war risks, espionage risks, if war will be large troops might reach Denmark ....or at least shell Bornholm etc with missiles.

I don't think that Pres. Putin will just leave Denmark alone if your scenario plays out either. I think you're right.

 

[SandisLL]

True enough

I just figured since my country cant let estonia go it pretty much means go time here as well


Buuut we shall see

Normally will be for sure. Baltic countries are eurozone countries and this will...yeah...
They also does have heavily integrated economy with west and actually on paper underrated foreign direct investments.
Because their financial sector is ceded to western friends and for crediting they had mainly used westerners private pension funds and private investment funds.
FDI is calculated in year when investments had been done and after assets had rised in price real stuff is different.
They also had sold a lot of agricultural land to western friends and these usually were credited by ...banks using westerners money....
With factories too approx the same.

 

[GhostZ06]

 

[SummerStriker]

The USA needs Biden now, more than ever. Only Biden can do what Trump couldn't, and keep up with Putin's love of genocide.