International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[aerius]

Well, Russia would be facing the same problem with their Air Force. U.S. air bases have a pretty good defense systems in place to take down any incoming threats. Look at Israel. Also, the US had B-1 missions to Iraq and Afghanistan that left and returned to the US in a 24-hour period.

US air defence is highly over-rated. The Iranians landed over 30 hits on an Israeli airbase even though the US had an entire carrier battle group with Aegis ships parked off the coast to reinforce Israel's Iron Dome system.

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/04/nx-s1-5140058/satellite-images-dozens-iranian-missiles-struck-near-israeli-air-base

Aegis and the SM-series missiles are the best air defence system that the US has, and the Iranians still got through both it and the Iron Dome. Russian missiles are a couple generations ahead of what the Iranians have, the US has no chance in hell of stopping Zircon or Oreshnik.

As for hitting Russian airbases, the problem is NATO doesn't really have any long range missiles other than the Tomahawk. The Crimean peninsula and some of the bases in the Black Sea region could be hit with HIMARS, everything else will require Tomahawks. Then there's getting though Russian air defence systems, they currently have around a 80-90% shoot down rate vs. ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, that rate will be even higher against Tomahawks since they don't have the stealth features of the Storm Shadows or the speed of the ATACMS. And finally, all Russian planes have rough field capability so even if the airbases are shot up they can still fly off of highways and even dirt roads like the Ukrainians have been doing for the past couple years.

 

[Cole train]

What about poems and songs, do they write and sing about their heroes already, is it part of their culture, i know you know them from closer?

Nah we are not in middle ages lol

 

[Badr Hari]

Where are you getting this number? At what point during the conflict was the Ukranian Army at 100%?
Ukrainian casualties are roughly at the 500,000 mark.

It depends on the week. Some weeks the Russians have captured 2 to 3 villages. That number will grow once the spring offensive gets started. Again, Putin does not want all of Ukraine.

700,000 Soviet soldiers for the Kiev recovery. Neither country was on a 21st century military. Again, Russia defeated Napolean's French Army, and the Soviets defeated Hitlers' German Army.

Easy calculation, find ukr army number in 2025 and divide by number in 2021, times 100, and you get around 350% increase.
That casualty number is as fake as every number cited by Trump and co.
2 to 3 villages they take, 1 to 2 villages they lose. Roughly they win a ruined village per week, which is still speed of a tired turtle when divided by Ukr size.
It's super easy to see what Putin wants. He wants as much territory as he can get without general mobilization and regime change in Kyiv so a Yanukovich or ukrainian Lukashenko is put in power. He had a shot pre Feb 24th 2022 to actually achieve that as ukrainians one day could have voted like many european countries today are, pro-Kremlin. With his stupid special operation he has only galvanized anti russian sentiment in Ukraine for the decades to come and even with Zelensky gone, every upcoming president and government will hate Moscow the same.
Actually even territorially Putin's latest invasion hasn't been that impressive at all. Did you know that his proxies in 2014 occupied more territory in Ukraine than he has with the special operation? Of course partially it is because Ukr back than was scared and unprepared for war, but also because Putin is not a genius. 90% of all territorial gains made by russians in this special operation happened during the blitz period from Feb 24th 2022 to the summer of 2022. When Ukr started investing seriously in it's armed forces, since the summer of 2022 until this moment Rus hasn't really gained anything substantial. Yes they beat Napoleon and Hitler, but Putin obviously isn't and doesn't have a Kutuzov or Zhukov in his office, for three years now he can't defeat even the producer of Kvartal 95.

 

[San Marino]

Russian missiles are a couple generations ahead of what the Iranians have, the US has no chance in hell of stopping Zircon or Oreshnik.

I believe the Oreshnik is flying at Mach 10. The RS-28 Sarmat is flying at roughly Mach 20. This thing is a monster. Currently what is keeping Europe and the US from engaging Russia in Ukraine.

 

[San Marino]

Easy calculation, find ukr army number in 2025 and divide by number in 2021, times 100, and you get around 350% increase.

Yeah, but what is that number in 2025 and what was that number in 2021?
Ukraine keeps it a secret as it does its casualty's rate.
Somehow the west seems to know all those numbers for Russia, but it knows nothing about Ukraine. Why do you think that is? What are they hiding? It sounds similar to the Joe Biden state of mind issue as a president.

 

[Badr Hari]

Nah we are not in middle ages lol

Songs about my motherland still give me goosebumps, but i guess the new generation has less of a pulse lol

I liked this one, was cover of many tik tok videos two years ago

 

[Cole train]

Songs about my motherland still give me goosebumps, but i guess the new generation has less of a pulse lol

I liked this one, was cover of many tik tok videos two years ago

There might be war songs about battles or heroic guys since its a music genre in that part of world but i personally find them kinda awkward or cringe so not for me

 

[Badr Hari]

Yeah, but what is that number in 2025 and what was that number in 2021?
Ukraine keeps it a secret as it does its casualty's rate.
Somehow the west seems to know all those numbers for Russia, but it knows nothing about Ukraine. Why do you think that is? What are they hiding? It sounds similar to the Joe Biden state of mind issue as a president.

2025 - close to a million. 2021 - between 200k and 300k. Casualties Rus has more than double of what Ukr has. We will go with that unless new evidence is presented later.

 

[Strychnine]

Don't worry Kadyrovites! Kadyrov's teenage son is in charge of the military!

 

[Strychnine]

Supporting in words but less effectively in materiel - there is no meaningful increase to a pitifully small industrial base in the short or medium term and countries are worried about their own lack of stocks at the moment.

If Ukraines future rests on EU military support, they’re done for.

 

[Boxiana]

I’m not sure what I’m supposed to take from this. Europe has committed to allowing itself to borrow upto 600billion by breaking its own fiscal rules.

Anyone who knows anything about the EU knows this means nothing .Germany is going to spend it on long needed infrastructure upgrades. Spain on climate change projects.

If you think the EU (which does not have a coordinated defence policy, let alone a common army) is riding to the rescue, you are mistaken IMO.

 

[SandisLL]

spinmarima is russian ...in russia. Copy paste type threats with sarmate wnderwaffe. Translated from russian ( widely used in russian forums and so on ) and posted here.

Nice annoying threats...nothing had changed 1100+ days in row.

 

[Strychnine]

I’m not sure what I’m supposed to take from this. Europe has committed to allowing itself to borrow upto 600billion by breaking its own fiscal rules.

Anyone who knows anything about the EU knows this means nothing .Germany is going to spend it on long needed infrastructure upgrades. Spain on climate change projects.

If you think the EU (which does not have a coordinated defence policy, let alone a common army) is riding to the rescue, you are mistaken IMO.

We shall see.

 

[SandisLL]

Iron Dome isn't designed to defend against ballistic missiles..plus it is very expensive, mainly cos radar...

It is niche product specially designed to protect small area against some specific kind of threats, specific for Israel situation.

1. Small missiles like Grad 122 mm , plus here they uses 1-2 tubes launchers , man portable or mounted on technicals. Not large trucks with 40 launch tubes: this allows easy to hide converted into technicals jeeps and small casual trucks. Also to fire quickly and relocate really quicjly.
2. Some mortars like 120 mm stuff...fire and relocate ASAP.
3. Crude, very cheap small missiles , basement level stuff.

All these threats looks crude...while awailable for cheap ...and very annoying for Israel.

Initially even drones weren't considered ...

Ofc Iron Dome might shot down some airplane or subsonic cruise missile, helicopter ...maybe now also some drone....

Iron Dome is stationary system, not easy to relocate quickly ...and very expensive.

Pros here are that launcher does have 20 containers with missiles and battery might have 3-4-6 launchers.
Also despite battery is very expensive...missiles for this are cheaper than some IRIS-T or at least more normal from variants used by NASAMS ...
Israel doesn't think that Iron Dome is wunderwaffe or panacea. They does have also Barak, David's sling, Arrow... also at least recently still had Patriot..

They even still does have a lot of reubrished old models radars...even from 1960 ies and ofc also new and modern ones.
They does have even stockpiles with 12,7mm machine guns, 20 mm and 23 mm autocannons etc ...also even old stuff from these too. Most likely somewhere in basements.

 

[SandisLL]

Depends what kind of stuff europe and U.K will send and when...

There are some things they are just purchasing from u.s etc... something they produce in europe...

Money they are giving each month and with different instruments, otherwise ukr had defaulted de facto in spring 2022 th...
Weapons? Slow decision making process, reluctance to send some kind of weapons..

Also countries with border with Russia, Belarus and Ukr really can't afford deplete stockpiles...they might send something if they already have replacement delivered...

 

[SandisLL]

Easy calculation, find ukr army number in 2025 and divide by number in 2021, times 100, and you get around 350% increase.
That casualty number is as fake as every number cited by Trump and co.
2 to 3 villages they take, 1 to 2 villages they lose. Roughly they win a ruined village per week, which is still speed of a tired turtle when divided by Ukr size.
It's super easy to see what Putin wants. He wants as much territory as he can get without general mobilization and regime change in Kyiv so a Yanukovich or ukrainian Lukashenko is put in power. He had a shot pre Feb 24th 2022 to actually achieve that as ukrainians one day could have voted like many european countries today are, pro-Kremlin. With his stupid special operation he has only galvanized anti russian sentiment in Ukraine for the decades to come and even with Zelensky gone, every upcoming president and government will hate Moscow the same.
Actually even territorially Putin's latest invasion hasn't been that impressive at all. Did you know that his proxies in 2014 occupied more territory in Ukraine than he has with the special operation? Of course partially it is because Ukr back than was scared and unprepared for war, but also because Putin is not a genius. 90% of all territorial gains made by russians in this special operation happened during the blitz period from Feb 24th 2022 to the summer of 2022. When Ukr started investing seriously in it's armed forces, since the summer of 2022 until this moment Rus hasn't really gained anything substantial. Yes they beat Napoleon and Hitler, but Putin obviously isn't and doesn't have a Kutuzov or Zhukov in his office, for three years now he can't defeat even the producer of Kvartal 95.

Approx this.
Putin appeared more capable to generate hate really quickly.
Even for these who didn't had cared about Ukr ideology at all.

 

[SandisLL]

BTW I remember one forum. They had more technical thematic and ....majority of users were cosmopolites and didn't had posted about politics..ok, about some tax type stuff etc..
Mainly multilingual and technical ppl...place where a lot of users had old profiles with posts history....it isn't easy just to come and pretend: posters will see user's level when discussions are about technical stuff and....so on.

So before 2022 th some batch of old users had posted " fuckijn zelenka, inflation bla bla bla...even some % of them with real names....
After february 2022 th : fuckin puiylo, stupid russians etc....

Zelenka popularity after 2020 th had decreased....after february 2022 th about inflation wasn't responsible zelensky administration and cabinet of ministers plus rada lawmakers.anymore .....but now: russia and putin...responsible for inflation, unemployment, ofc also for war ....

 

[San Marino]

What territorial expansion?

@Strychnine
I'm waiting. What Russian territorial expansion beyond Ukraine?
You said Europe, but then took that back, so, I don't know what you are talking about.

 

[San Marino]

I’m not sure what I’m supposed to take from this.

Nothing.
It is a stupid video with lies and misconceptions. Liberal propaganda posted by a liberal.
The United States is now an 'evil' empire? Please!

 

[Dalarna3]

Seems like things are a little too quiet