International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Badr Hari]

Here is rus telegram most recent update on famous Koerenevo:

Fierce street fighting near Korenevo, the enemy is trying to break through on the flank
For several days, fighting has not stopped in the Olgovka area, the enemy with armored vehicles is bringing up reserves and trying to knock out ours.
Marines are giving a worthy rebuff to the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, destroying the occupiers and their equipment.
The fighting does not stop day or night, drones are actively working.

 

[Badr Hari]

Rus don't seem to give up Tetkino and Glushkovo without a fight. Ukr are either trying to first completely destroy the bridges and than attack or they simply are powerless at this moment.

The situation in Tetkino: ours are holding their positions, the retreat is fake, the enemy is trying to demolish the bridge in Zvanoy to disrupt the logistics of the troops
On the "Tetkino" section of the border front, the situation is consistently tense. There are positional clashes and shelling. Enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating in the area.
For 2 days, the enemy has been hitting the bridge in Zvanoy to make it difficult for us to transfer reinforcements and evacuate civilians. Today, the bridge received a significant hole, but it is still standing.
️The information spread on the Internet about our withdrawal these days is fake, our soldiers report from the scene. There are no changes in the situation, where they stood, there ours are still standing.

 

[Badr Hari]

Rus telegram reports that Ukr destroyed Zvanoe bridge today, there is a photo now posted everywhere. Bridge in Karyzh is still in tact though. Tomorrow could be interesting news.

 

[Strychnine]

 

[Badr Hari]

 

[scoopj]

I’m starting to think Putin’s days are numbered. This incursion by Ukraine is a massive embarrassment and here we are a week later and it’s only gotten worse.

During Ukraine’s Incursion, Russian Conscripts Recount Surrendering in Droves (Published 2024)

More than 300 have been processed in a prison in Ukraine, providing the country with a much-needed “exchange fund” for future swaps of prisoners of war.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Brueskie]

I’m starting to think Putin’s days are numbered. This incursion by Ukraine is a massive embarrassment and here we are a week later and it’s only gotten worse.

During Ukraine’s Incursion, Russian Conscripts Recount Surrendering in Droves (Published 2024)

More than 300 have been processed in a prison in Ukraine, providing the country with a much-needed “exchange fund” for future swaps of prisoners of war.

www.nytimes.com

I have to think—or hope, anyway—that there are people in Russia's power structure who are not at all happy with how things are going and want Putin gone. Hopefully people who prefer to be on good terms with the West; not people with a broken apocalyptical world vision.

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

So the invasion is not unfolding slowly at all. I don’t know what gives you that impression.

Whoever you’re listening likely doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Ukraine is close enough to the train route that Moscow is using to resupply and reinforce the fronts in Ukraine. If they manage to cut that off they will break Russias offensive. This is something that is in imminent danger of happening.

I’ve discussed why I think Russia hasn’t done more to stop them so far, but the short of it is I don’t think they want to move units from inside Ukraine since it will kill their momentum. They’re throwing reserves and conscripts at the problem now but I really doubt it’s going to be enough.

This offensive was completely brilliant imo. They’ve forced Russia into a real dilemma here instead of trying to just hold lines and grind to a slow death. No matter how it ultimately pans out, I’m extremely impressed with their cleverness and daring.

Ukraine's own releases state they are moving at a speed of 1-3 km a day, invasions tend to slow down as they age, and we are not near seriously threatening the train route you are referring to, which is Lgov.

 

[PEB]

"Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov poses with a Tesla Cybertruck, mounted with a machine gun, in a video posted on Aug. 17, 2024. " Ramzan thanked Musk for sending the Cybertruck to help Russia win the war. Lol

 

[AWilder]

According to rus telegram Ukr tried to advance towards Martynovka. Chechen troops defended the assaults for today, but they say Ukr are persistently attacking

did they use a cyber truck lol

 

[Strychnine]

Sudza has been taken by the Ukrainian forces.

 

[Blayt7hh]

Ukraine's own releases state they are moving at a speed of 1-3 km a day, invasions tend to slow down as they age, and we are not near seriously threatening the train route you are referring to, which is Lgov.

I mean the headline today was that Russia just surrendered 15 square km to them...

 

[AWilder]

Ukraine's own releases state they are moving at a speed of 1-3 km a day, invasions tend to slow down as they age, and we are not near seriously threatening the train route you are referring to, which is Lgov.

a new plank?

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

I mean the headline today was that Russia just surrendered 15 square km to them...

You say "headline", but I scoured all my sources and didn't see reports of any such advance, on any part of the front, and to be frank even if there was an advance it would need to be part of the correct part of the front to be meaningful. 15 sq km in the vicinity of Korenevo would be incredible. 15 sq km in the direction of Snagost, just due south, probably not very useful. And even if they take Korenevo it just gives them access to the road to Rylsk from Sudzha. And taking Rylsk right now feels like a pipe dream.

I think the initial incursion was the correct move. I'm concerned they're overcommitting. In some way, there is no bad option when all options are bad options, because the status quo was also unsustainable.

 

[AWilder]

cool, a new plank.

 

[SandisLL]

Ukraine's own releases state they are moving at a speed of 1-3 km a day, invasions tend to slow down as they age, and we are not near seriously threatening the train route you are referring to, which is Lgov.

There is one big stuff: the longer you will advance, the longer should be supply lines for troops.

Russia for example in Luhansk and Donetsk oblastj had used flowcharts that when some area is taken, immediately trenches etc are digged ( therefore shovels tales ) and minefields installed ( ofc with maps ) and after this push forward.

Slow advance also is very important for security reasons : civies in attacked areas, if they does knows some days in row that there might be ....
Then majority of pro ukr oriented or ppl who does fear from Russia....will evacuate and relocate.
Then in villages mainly will remain ppl who are pro Kremlin oriented or simply doesn't care......
Then after taking village are considerably lesser risks to hold village and better chance to do successful " referendums " after physical control is established.

For example village with 50 inhabitants.
After week of coming up liberation in village are just 10 inhabitants , from these maybe 5 are pro russian and 5 just doesn't doesn't care... so you easily might sent agitator with application forms for citizenship and ofc also to do " referendum " with success and easily to install local " starosta " ....
If vodka and cigs delivered, from these 10 ...more than 5 will be happy and accept new rules..

Low expenses to maintain control if compare with situation if village with all 50 inhabitants had been taken in few hours....

 

[CorninginChristianburg]

There is one big stuff: the longer you will advance, the longer should be supply lines for troops.

Russia for example in Luhansk and Donetsk oblastj had used flowcharts that when some area is taken, immediately trenches etc are digged ( therefore shovels tales ) and minefields installed ( ofc with maps ) and after this push forward.

Slow advance also is very important for security reasons : civies in attacked areas, if they does knows some days in row that there might be ....
Then majority of pro ukr oriented or ppl who does fear from Russia....will evacuate and relocate.
Then in villages mainly will remain ppl who are pro Kremlin oriented or simply doesn't care......
Then after taking village are considerably lesser risks to hold village and better chance to do successful " referendums " after physical control is established.

For example village with 50 inhabitants.
After week of coming up liberation in village are just 10 inhabitants , from these maybe 5 are pro russian and 5 just doesn't doesn't care... so you easily might sent agitator with application forms for citizenship and ofc also to do " referendum " with success and easily to install local " starosta " ....
If vodka and cigs delivered, from these 10 ...more than 5 will be happy and accept new rules..

Low expenses to maintain control if compare with situation if village with all 50 inhabitants had been taken in few hours....

This highlights all the major issues facing the invasion though. When you have a large invading force, you don't just have a penetrating tip of the spear, you have large bodies of logistics flowing in behind them to fill the gap. You can move quickly, and historically there have been plenty of rapid invasions where soldiers didn't just outrun supply lines and die.

Ukraine doesn't have the manpower, or the material, to launch a legitimate, high speed invasion. Obviously, I don't know the exact amount but it's safe to say Ukraine has less than 50k soldiers in the Kursk region right now.

 

[SandisLL]

Drones ...

Ukraine in cases when it is possible are replacing casual ordnance dropped from drones with custom made stuff.
Custom made stuff usually is more effective because often uses more powerful explosives, plastic body and improvised " coating " providing more devastating power and impact from the same weight item.

One from most common things is to use ball bearings and plastic exp plus plastic body for gift dropped by drone.
Lighter and more power.

Ykr widely are using 3D printers and Europe maybe will be Empire again.
If will provide enough explosives and 3D printers.

Europe doesn’t have manufacturing.
Europe is using chinesse cotton to produce nitrocellulose ( laughable idiotism ).

Cotton " wires " are used in explosives to slow down " burning " process but if ordinary cellulose is awailable no one in europe will use cotton to make cellulose type stuff ....

Europe does have enough explosives to turn all Ukraine in shape like moon crater.
While problems to rack up shells production are casings for shells and reality that manufacturers does want to have long term contracts...for production batches delivery for 10-15-20 years...

 

[SandisLL]

This highlights all the major issues facing the invasion though. When you have a large invading force, you don't just have a penetrating tip of the spear, you have large bodies of logistics flowing in behind them to fill the gap. You can move quickly, and historically there have been plenty of rapid invasions where soldiers didn't just outrun supply lines and die.

Ukraine doesn't have the manpower, or the material, to launch a legitimate, high speed invasion. Obviously, I don't know the exact amount but it's safe to say Ukraine has less than 50k soldiers in the Kursk region right now.

If huelensky will start to pay normally, problems with man power Ukraine will not taste. He easily might hire a lot of foreigners like Putin is doing and meat always will be delivered.


While about size of troops there too are a lot of differences.

For example one thing is that as battalion might be called 500 or 1200 size unit, as brigade 2000-6500 ....as you want. Also a lot from such stuff is used to have effect in info war and to confuse opponent.

 

[Cid]