International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

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Rholk said:

Its still quite a distance to the npp in Kursk.
Although there's a shitton of fog of war atm, i dont think they've managed to advance an additional 25 kms today without anything to verify it
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i heard there at lgov or snagost
 
The most severe impact was felt in Russian Kursk region, where Tochka-U ballistic missiles were fired, including in the vicinity of the Kursk railway station. Russian air defense systems were activated across five regions, successfully intercepting four Tochka-U missiles. Despite the interceptions, debris from one of the missiles caused damage to a multi-story residential building, highlighting the high stakes of this latest phase of the conflict. In addition to the missiles, 14 aircraft-type drones were reportedly shot down over the Kursk region.


According to the military balance, before the war, the Ukrainian armed forces were equipped with 90 9K79 Tochka launchers, NATO code-named SS-21 Scarab. Ukraine inherited a significant number of Tochka-U missiles and launchers from the Soviet Union after its dissolution in 1991. it is estimated suggest that Ukraine possessed a substantial stockpile of missiles at the time of independence. Over the years, the number of operational systems and available missiles has likely decreased due to usage, wear and tear, and a lack of new production.


The use of Tochka-U tactical missiles represents a notable aspect of Ukraine’s military strategy in this cross-border incursion. The Tochka-U, also known as the SS-21 Scarab by NATO, is a Soviet-era short-range ballistic missile system. It is known for its mobility and precision, capable of delivering a variety of warheads, including high-explosive, submunitions, and even chemical warheads, though there is no indication of non-conventional payloads being used in this instance.


The Tochka-U ballistic missile system is mounted on a mobile launcher vehicle, allowing for rapid deployment and repositioning. It has a range of up to 120 km and is designed to strike tactical targets such as command centers, airfields, and infrastructure, making it a potent tool in Ukraine's arsenal for disrupting Russian operations and logistics.
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they still have these?

armyrecognition.com

Breaking News: Ukraine Fires Barrage of Tochka-U Ballistic Missiles in Support of Attacks on Russian Regions

Breaking News: Ukraine Fires Barrage of Tochka-U Ballistic Missiles in Support of Attacks on Russian Regions
armyrecognition.com armyrecognition.com
 
Blayt7hh said:
Ukraine has to tread carefully here. They could end up galvanizing the Russian population
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Maybe they'll retreat back this week. Hundreds of prisoners taken and an image damage to Rus security is what should make them happy normally. If they try to dug in it will be bloodbath as Rus can't allow enemy army in their territory even if it's one single settlement. I'm surprised by the Rus response so far, not anything bold.
 
Badr Hari said:
Maybe they'll retreat back this week. Hundreds of prisoners taken and an image damage to Rus security is what should make them happy normally. If they try to dug in it will be bloodbath as Rus can't allow enemy army in their territory even if it's one single settlement. I'm surprised by the Rus response so far, not anything bold.
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I don’t think Russia can respond without diverting forces and giving up the land in the fronts they were finally gaining momentum in.
 
Blayt7hh said:
I don’t think Russia can respond without diverting forces and giving up the land in the fronts they were finally gaining momentum in.
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I hear that story every day but I don't quite get it. They should have just enough forces without diverting anything. They border Japan on the other side ffs, it's a huge territory and they must have capability to defend every centimeter of it. Each second of their settlements being under the ukrainian flag is an embarrasment of historic proportions. Wtf is their aviation doing here? Waiting for noizy Ukr drones to come and burn them in the airports?
 
Badr Hari said:
I hear that story every day but I don't quite get it. They should have just enough forces without diverting anything. They border Japan on the other side ffs, it's a huge territory and they must have capability to defend every centimeter of it. Each second of their settlements being under the ukrainian flag is an embarrasment of historic proportions. Wtf is their aviation doing here? Waiting for noizy Ukr drones to come and burn them in the airports?
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I’m not sure what you’re suggesting. That they pull the conscripts they have off like the Mongolian border? They could, but I’m sure they’re untrained, under equipped, and would take well over a week to mobilize.

They have conscripts all over the country, but they’re no better off than the troops UKR just ran rough shod over. All of Russias offensive capability is pretty much tied up in Ukraine already. They were cocky and figured Ukraine wouldn’t dare invade them so they left the border virtually undefended in order to plus up their assault.

As far was their Air Force, that’s nothing new. Russia has been hesitant to use them because Ukraines air defense has been fairly effective.
 
Blayt7hh said:
All of Russias offensive capability is pretty much tied up in Ukraine already.
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This is what IS problematic IMO if it's true. A very serious problem for a country that pretends to have sovereignity over such a large territory with not so friendly neighbors. Russia shares borders with multiple countries that are stronger than Ukraine. Russia needs to react fast and swiftly in Kursk or their reputation will be badly damaged. It's a failure of it's kind to lose Kherson or have 16 000 soldiers killed to take Avdeevka but it's an entirely different kind of failure for a "world military power" to have it's flag thrown to the ground in its own territory.
 
Putin named special operation in Kursk oblastj as anti terrorism operation. He appointed KGB ( sorry, now it is called FSB ) ' director ' to be chief for this small special operation in Kursk oblastj.
 
GhostZ06 said:
they still have these?

armyrecognition.com

Breaking News: Ukraine Fires Barrage of Tochka-U Ballistic Missiles in Support of Attacks on Russian Regions

Breaking News: Ukraine Fires Barrage of Tochka-U Ballistic Missiles in Support of Attacks on Russian Regions
armyrecognition.com armyrecognition.com
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Maybe. However if they does have some, these are manufactured before 1993 th. Since missile does have shelf storage timeframe limit before refubrishment etc ....dunno in what condition they are and will work or no.
 
Cid said:
Russia saying Ukraine has advanced 30km deep into Russia.


Which means Ukraine is likely somewhere between 50km deep to 70km away from Moscow.
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528 km between moscow and city of kursk?
 
Blayt7hh said:
Ukraine has to tread carefully here. They could end up galvanizing the Russian population
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This could be Russian propaganda to gain public support? Most of the videos I have seen soldiers were taken prisoner. The only thing were civilian were involved Russian conscriptes were driving around in civilian cars.

Ukrainians would fire on them at times thinking Russian soldiers were driving an hit civilians. But this is Russia they don't give a shxt about their people.
 
Badr Hari said:
This is what IS problematic IMO if it's true. A very serious problem for a country that pretends to have sovereignity over such a large territory with not so friendly neighbors. Russia shares borders with multiple countries that are stronger than Ukraine. Russia needs to react fast and swiftly in Kursk or their reputation will be badly damaged. It's a failure of it's kind to lose Kherson or have 16 000 soldiers killed to take Avdeevka but it's an entirely different kind of failure for a "world military power" to have it's flag thrown to the ground in its own territory.
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Well normally their army would t be tied up in a 2 1/2 year long stalemate. But if the countries they actually do have to worry about attacking them on their border, only Poland is a greater threat than Ukraine.

But yes it is a blow to their reputation and you’re right that they’ll want it fixed quickly. I think that’s exactly what Ukrainians are banking on so they can relieve the pressure on other fronts.

Until this offensive, Russia has been able to tie up Ukrainian forces that were combat ready by the mere threat that they could cross the border there. It was at no cost to them because they assumed Ukraine didn’t dare cross. Ukraine just changed that equation. Now Russia will have to actually man that border and will be forced to to march Ukrainian forces where they were once getting a free pass.
 
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PEB said:
This could be Russian propaganda to gain public support? Most of the videos I have seen soldiers were taken prisoner. The only thing were civilian were involved Russian conscriptes were driving around in civilian cars.

Ukrainians would fire on them at times thinking Russian soldiers were driving an hit civilians. But this is Russia they don't give a shxt about their people.
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We’ll make no mistake about what I’m saying, this is not propaganda. But of Ukraine does just devastate the region I could see this galvanizing the population that has really been apathetic about the whole war for the most part. I’m very interested to see how this plays out. It’s a bold gamble
 
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