International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Cid]

 

[Cid]

Ukrainian Defense Forces Hit Temryuk Oil Terminal in Krasnodar Krai; Fire Spreads Over 2,000 m² - Militarnyi

Ukrainian Defense Forces strike drones attacked an oil depot at the port of Temryuk in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.

militarnyi.com

 

[ChessJitsu]

man seeing the population numbers next to the city names just makes everything sadder and darker.

Looks like Kramatorsk is the size of my hometown Elista.

I would be devastated if that was happening to my hometown.

Prayers to all the people living in Ukraine

 

[lsa]

 

[SandisLL]

There are relatively clear indirect signals that initial Lavrov's office demands still are as first points Putin really does want to press...

not often talked in public waste of time noise.....

Even populistic for voters empty talks about bad nato aren't even close to real demands ( putin always knew that ukr not be accetped in nato ) plus not likely might get in EU during next years even if was 0 war 2022-....

__<
Lavrov's office first demands always were the same:
1. Russia never will agree with any western ( question ofc is what he means with word western ) peacekeeping forces in Ukraine nor after ceasfire will be reached NOR also after long term peace deal will be signed.
NEVER.

2. Russia does wants de Militarization of Ukraine and for mass media it is presented as number of tropps enlisted ukr will be allowed to have ....

___
While in reality Lavrov multiple times demanded that west should not supply or sell weapons for Ukraine....
☆ Also proposals about prohibitions and restrictions what kind of weapons Ukraine will be allowed to have.

Ofc if Russia will negotiate with U.S about this, then U.S not only will not sell certain stuff but also might use re export clauses in sales contracts and ITAR regulations in order to prevent other countries purchased U.S weapons , ammo re export to Ukraine.
__
It is most nasty and risky stuff media doesn't loves to talk about.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Some of the best allies Ukraine have are the Russian Generals who just feed meat into the grinder.

jesus...imagine being part of that column watching your comrades getting blown up one by one , talk about low hanging fruit.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

And that's why they are doing more insane meat and vehicle assaults, they thought they could lie their way to victory but now have to double down on their stupidity.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

That's crazy, this guy was proven to be a liar and a coward and he's still talking shit and being condescending.

Why did Zelensky offer an energy truce of the energy/fuel site strikes from Ukraine to Russia are so much in Ukraine's favor?

What's the tactic there if Putin accepts?

Anyways, 2026 is mostly going to be about the Donbass Fortress Belt. The last obstacle to Russian full control of the Donbas.

At least one of these cities will be taken by summer.

This will go hand-in-hand with continuing advancements in Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy.

Efforts to defend the fortress belt will stretch Ukrainian defensive resources even further, accelerating the decline of Ukrainian land loss.

By end of 2026, 23-25% of Ukrainian land will be under Russian control, leading to huge frontline collapse in 2027.

So, a year and a half in against Pokrovsk and they dont even have it but yet the others are going to fall faster??? Have you seen the defensive lines they have built now that they have had time to build them? Things will be getting worse for Russia not better.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Seversk lasted 41 months! So it's hardly some huge successbfor the Russians.

Ukrainians shot down 34/35 cruise missiles and all but 50 or so drones from 678 drones. Ballistic missiles are the hardest so far to shoot down without a supply of Patriot or other similar systems.

Ukraine has now built up new defense lines. 21 lines of barbed wire, several anti tank ditches, dragon teeth, etc...

Holy crap those are impressive fortifications, but I'm sure Russian command will send the meat to slaughter.

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

That's crazy, this guy was proven to be a liar and a coward and he's still talking shit and being condescending.

Why did Zelensky offer an energy truce of the energy/fuel site strikes from Ukraine to Russia are so much in Ukraine's favor?

What's the tactic there if Putin accepts?

Anyways, 2026 is mostly going to be about the Donbass Fortress Belt. The last obstacle to Russian full control of the Donbas.

At least one of these cities will be taken by summer.

This will go hand-in-hand with continuing advancements in Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy.

Efforts to defend the fortress belt will stretch Ukrainian defensive resources even further, accelerating the decline of Ukrainian land loss.

By end of 2026, 23-25% of Ukrainian land will be under Russian control, leading to huge frontline collapse in 2027.

ISW - 23 December 2025

Key Takeaways:

1. Russia conducted another large-scale combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on December 22 and 23, primarily targeting energy infrastructure in western Ukraine. *
2. Russian forces conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Dobropillya direction, and a reduced-platoon sized mechanized assault in the Kostyantynivka direction on December 22.
3. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

* Russia conducted one of the largest combined missile and drone strikes of the war overnight into December 23.

• Scale of Attack: Ukrainian officials reported Russia launched 673 aerial targets, including 38 missiles and 635 drones. Ukrainian air defenses claimed to have downed 34 cruise missiles and 587 drones.
• Primary Targets: The strikes focused heavily on energy infrastructure, particularly in western Ukraine, triggering widespread emergency power cuts.
• Civilian Impact: At least three people were killed, and dozens were injured across 13 regions.
• International Response: Poland and allied NATO forces scrambled fighter jets to protect Polish airspace as strikes occurred near the border.

View attachment 1127598

There's a huge difference in answers you get from American AI engines and Chinese AI engines in regards to Russia/Ukraine topics.

With Google AI it's largely driven by ISW content and stuff.

With Chinese AI it funnels information from larger array of publications.

You can't just keep living in one information space.

The same ISW that you and San Marino keep posting?

Let me guess ISW is accurate and perfectly fine when you're trying to make some nonsense points about Russia gaining two inches of territory in a month and proclaiming "IT'S OVER! IT'S ALL OVER!"?

Oh and I am still waiting to know how I am a "liar" and "coward"...I guess I won't be getting my answer any time soon......but no surprise ....

 

[Devil's_Advocate]

There are relatively clear indirect signals that initial Lavrov's office demands still are as first points Putin really does want to press...

not often talked in public waste of time noise.....

Even populistic for voters empty talks about bad nato aren't even close to real demands ( putin always knew that ukr not be accetped in nato ) plus not likely might get in EU during next years even if was 0 war 2022-....

__<
Lavrov's office first demands always were the same:
1. Russia never will agree with any western ( question ofc is what he means with word western ) peacekeeping forces in Ukraine nor after ceasfire will be reached NOR also after long term peace deal will be signed.
NEVER.

2. Russia does wants de Militarization of Ukraine and for mass media it is presented as number of tropps enlisted ukr will be allowed to have ....

___
While in reality Lavrov multiple times demanded that west should not supply or sell weapons for Ukraine....
☆ Also proposals about prohibitions and restrictions what kind of weapons Ukraine will be allowed to have.

Ofc if Russia will negotiate with U.S about this, then U.S not only will not sell certain stuff but also might use re export clauses in sales contracts and ITAR regulations in order to prevent other countries purchased U.S weapons , ammo re export to Ukraine.
__
It is most nasty and risky stuff media doesn't loves to talk about.

President Zelenskyy is counting on all of this and that's why he's happily agreeing (calling Putin's bluff) in public to create an economic space with UN or NATO type troops ...it's never happening and it's easy to just say and make Trump happy. However some of our more simple and naive posters like @ChessJitsu somehow can't comprehend that side to geopolitics. Likewise Ukraine agreeing to maybe not to join NATO when several countries object to it is not a major concession. If Ukraine gets a South Korea or Japan type of Mutual Defense Pact security guarantee with US it doesn't need Article 5. We know US is the backstop for all Western militaries.

I separately asked DeepSeek what it thought about the force ratio and it's not all that different from Google AI contrary to what our Russian military expert here claimed ..

"Conclusion: The New Paradigm

1. The 3:1 Troop Ratio is Largely Obsolete: On a drone-saturated battlefield, massing infantry and armor according to the old formula without first winning the drone/EW counterfight is a recipe for rapid attrition.
2. The Decisive Ratio is Now Technological & Logistical: The critical balance is:
· Drone & Counter-Drone Density
· Electronic Warfare / Spectrum Superiority
· Artillery & Precision Munition Stockpiles
· Real-Time Targeting Cycle Speed
3. A New Hybrid Ratio Emerges: A modern "rule of thumb" might be: To achieve local breakthrough, an attacker must first achieve a local superiority in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) dominance and suppression fire, which may require a significant but non-linear numerical advantage expressed in capable systems, not just men. The troop ratio might still be 3:1 or higher, but it is insufficient and not the primary determinant of success.

In short, drone warfare has broken the historical offense-defense calculus centered on troop and tank counts. The battlefield is now a sensor-and-shooter network conflict, where winning the information and precision-fire fight is a prerequisite for any successful maneuver. The "ratio" that matters has shifted from personnel to capabilities and their sustainable density."

So with this in mind is Russia truly "winning"?

 

[Badr Hari]

Merry Christmas to all my christian sherbros from a fella muslim sherbro who enjoys this holiday more than he is supposed to! More freedom and more love for all of you and all glory to UKRAINIAN PEOPLE!

 

[San Marino]

Merry Christmas to all my christian sherbros from a fella muslim sherbro who enjoys this holiday more than he is supposed to! More freedom and more love for all of you and all glory to UKRAINIAN PEOPLE!

السلام عليكم
Glory to both Russian and Ukrainian people.

 

[San Marino]

So, a year and a half in against Pokrovsk and they dont even have it ...

Russia controls the city of Pokrovsk.

 

[San Marino]

Ukraine accepts demilitarized zone to end Russia war​

Ukraine accepts demilitarised zone to end Russia war, but do DMZs work?

The latest proposal involves DMZs in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia. But DMZs have a mixed track record globally.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Russia controls the city of Pokrovsk.

Of course they do, how about Kypiansk? putler held that a month ago.

 

[San Marino]

Andreevka Captured by Russia Without a War in Sight​

The video we dissect how Russian forces gradually took control of the Andreevka area, starting from drone warfare, artillery pressure, isolation of the battlefield, until the collapse of local defenses on the banks of the Gaichur River.

 

[San Marino]

...well, the video above only plays in English on YouTube.

 

[San Marino]

Andriivka together with other towns.

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

Andriivka together with other towns.

Have to admire you showing a propaganda vid with 1980's tech to show the Russians have advanced a km or 2 in different places.