International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V14

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Seems like Russia is going to win this, they are staying in for the long game.

American support is waning as we have a new war to focus on and that was the only thing keeping Ukraine in the game. Ukraine is out of soldiers, they are going to the 40 and 50 year olds now. After they are gone, they surrender or move to the women and children while Zelensky keeps begging for money.

It's looking that way unless the west ramps up material support again and starts easing up on restrictions for their use of weapons.

Ukraine is past the point of being able to just surrender. If they do the Russian attempted genocide will exacerbate
 
It's looking that way unless the west ramps up material support again and starts easing up on restrictions for their use of weapons.

Ukraine is past the point of being able to just surrender. If they do the Russian attempted genocide will exacerbate
The problem for Ukr yet isn't manpower.
Iran, Belarus and North Korea looks that are increasing supplies and technical assistance while west is reducing and delaying these same for Ukr.

Some countries looks that are thinking that Ukraine should get just mainly defensive weapons. Some looks that might be statisfied if Ukraine will cede all lands on paper annexed by Putin to Russia...
Some doesn't care at all, just are giving a bit support due to their electorate pressure ....

While for Russia IMHO final target is to take ALL Ukraine and Moldova sooner or later...either via puppet government or direct occupation and incorporation in Russian Federation.

& IF west will not rack up supplies quickly and seriously ....then reality might be that the same Hungary, Slovakia and Romania soon might get land border with Russia.
It is reality.
____

Additionally very big problem is that countries who does have land border with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in reality not only can't afford to reduce their weapons and ammunition stockpile, they should increase their own weaponry and ammo stockpile in order to prepare for worst scenario.
Otherwise yeah, western Europe and U.S & U.K will be forced to install their own weaponry and troops in these countries even more.....plus prepare for mobilisation.

Adm Bauer and gen Petr Pavel clearly had warned about this months ago....in open texts .
 
The problem for Ukr yet isn't manpower.
Iran, Belarus and North Korea looks that are increasing supplies and technical assistance while west is reducing and delaying these same for Ukr.

Some countries looks that are thinking that Ukraine should get just mainly defensive weapons. Some looks that might be statisfied if Ukraine will cede all lands on paper annexed by Putin to Russia...
Some doesn't care at all, just are giving a bit support due to their electorate pressure ....

While for Russia IMHO final target is to take ALL Ukraine and Moldova sooner or later...either via puppet government or direct occupation and incorporation in Russian Federation.

& IF west will not rack up supplies quickly and seriously ....then reality might be that the same Hungary, Slovakia and Romania soon might get land border with Russia.
It is reality.
____

Additionally very big problem is that countries who does have land border with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in reality not only can't afford to reduce their weapons and ammunition stockpile, they should increase their own weaponry and ammo stockpile in order to prepare for worst scenario.
Otherwise yeah, western Europe and U.S & U.K will be forced to install their own weaponry and troops in these countries even more.....plus prepare for mobilisation.

Adm Bauer and gen Petr Pavel clearly had warned about this months ago....in open texts .
Russia loving pukes will never admit this.... Russia has made their end game very clear.
 
Wagner arrived in avdeevka, lets see how this after prigozin-utkin version does

I actually almost miss the bald fuck and his antics
Some part of remaining from Wagnerites long ago are used in dumbass too.

While for Avdiivka it doesn't matters much.
Ukr had failed to guard flanks and to impact pincers.
Main method used by Russia now is to shell supply routes with everything available, starting from 120 mm mortars, 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers and MRLS systems, to use drones ( Russia in this area does have damn a lot of different drones ), gliding bombs.....

The gap in pincers is approx 6 km so easy to shell all this even with 120 mm mortars...

Looks that they will start to use also more 100mm artillery like these tanks T-54/T-55 and 100mm anti aircraft guns in self propelled field artillery and towed field guns mode plus might add 203 mm ( 8 inch ) self propelled artillery.
Avdiivka is done, likes this or not.

While due to minefields these isn't possible to clear with " ropes " that does have 120-150 m real range and therefore deMining is done by shelling of mined areas with mortars, artillery of all calibers etc tools.

Looks that there are damn a lot of different mines, used by both sides and most likely more than 1m of different mines and IEDs....
 
Ukraine shot down 74 Iranian drones in Russia largest attack on the city.





At this point when Russia going to realize it is a waste of time as Ukraine has moved to Gepard air defense has done very well better and far more cost effective then Patriot missile batteries for this cheap Iranian drones. A few dollars a round on the Gepard vs Iranian at least 50 to 200k per drone drone. Russia blowing an F ton on these drones good keep blowing it and their larger cruise missiles Germany provided updated Patriot batteries. You Trump supporters must be disappointed that their hero Putin military keeps failing at air attacks.
 
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Ukraine shot down 74 Iranian drones in Russia largest attack on the city.





At this point when Russia going to realize it is a waste of time as Ukraine has moved to Gepard air defense has done very well better and far more cost effective then Patriot missile batteries for this cheap Iranian drones. A few dollars a round on the Gepard vs Iranian at least 50 to 200k per drone drone. Russia blowing an F ton on these drones good keep blowing it and their larger cruise missiles Germany provided updated Patriot batteries. You Trump supporters must be disappointed that their hero Putin military keeps failing at air attacks.

There is one very serious and really BIG problem.
Exactly this ammunition is hardest problem for EU to deliver.
They does have damn a lot but this is purchased from Switzerland with re export clauses in contracts signed more than decade ago....
Switzerland doesn't agree to sign re export permit for these and due to clauses in purchase contracts it is impossible to send these to Ukraine IF Switzerland will not sign additional agreement and they refused to do this...

So this ammo partially might be replaced with small scale production in Norway and now recently one small production line had been launched in Germany.
While to set up new production line from German business took just 6 months, before this bireucratic processes took 12 months so instead of 6 months all process took 18 months.o_O
 
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There is one very serious and really BIG problem.
Exactly this ammunition is hardest problem for EU to deliver.
They does have damn a lot but this is purchased from Switzerland with re export clauses in contracts signed more than decade ago....
Switzerland doesn't agree to sign re export permit for these and due to clauses in purchase contracts it is impossible to send these to Ukraine IF Switzerland will not sign additional agreement and they refused to do this...

So this ammo partially might be replaced with small scale production in Norway and now recently one small production line had been launched in Germany.
While to set up new production line from German business took just 6 months, before this bireucratic processes took 12 months so instead of 6 months all process took 18 months.o_O
It's not like iranian shahed drones are flying off the production line ether and will have more an more problems to produce due to using backup supplies of western technology. The fact that Russia more and more reliant on Iran and North Korea is all you want to know about the weapons situation in Russia.
 
It's not like iranian shahed drones are flying off the production line ether and will have more an more problems to produce due to using backup supplies of western technology. The fact that Russia more and more reliant on Iran and North Korea is all you want to know about the weapons situation in Russia.
True but Russia was able to get an estimated 1 million artillery shells from NK alone while all of the West hasnt been able to supply that much that was needed in due time.
 
It's not like iranian shahed drones are flying off the production line ether and will have more an more problems to produce due to using backup supplies of western technology. The fact that Russia more and more reliant on Iran and North Korea is all you want to know about the weapons situation in Russia.
These " motorbikes " are very cheap therefore Putin is very interested to launch their production in Russia. Lukashenko BTW too.
Not likely these drones are using secret or small scale production components easy to control.

Against these in daytime very effective are also Soviet era Shilka 4x23 mm autocannons self propelled system while during night there is shit that their radar etc are considerably inferiour vs Gepard radars ....

So there I think are 2 solutions:
1. To integrate Gepard type radars for Shilka......

2. To modernize Gepard radars even further etc and to rack up ammunition production for these self propelled AA autocannons and with production located in NATO full members countries.
 
It's looking that way unless the west ramps up material support again and starts easing up on restrictions for their use of weapons.

Ukraine is past the point of being able to just surrender. If they do the Russian attempted genocide will exacerbate

Yep, I dont think UKR will surrender in any way as they may just set up more stronger defensive positions while letting Russians run into bullets. No way UKR can push Russia out militarily right now as Russia is all in and Putin doesnt have a choice and will kill every last Russian if he has to.
UKR just has to make Russia pay an enormous price for their occupation by doing non stop attacks in Crimea, oil and ammo dumps in UKR and Russia , endless drone attacks in Moscow and partisan attacks everywhere in occupied territory.
Putin has put a massive amount of his countries budget in his war effort but that is unsustainable for long not to mention at some point even dumb Russians are not going to want to be mobilized to certain death anymore.
The Rouble is in trouble, inflation is super high and this war is screwing Russia in many ways , at this point UKR just needs to bleed Russia till holding destroyed towns isnt worth the cost anymore.
 
True but Russia was able to get an estimated 1 million artillery shells from NK alone while all of the West hasnt been able to supply that much that was needed in due time.
There is very big aspect that in Europe some countries despite does have a lot of cluster ammo due to " weakness culture " aren't willing not only to supply from their own stockpiles and also....doesn't agree to sign re export permits for countries their customers who had purchased these long ago too.
Also countries who does have land border with Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Russia can't afford to deplete their wartime stockpiles and instead should increase their weapons and ammunition stockpiles...


According to some sources NK might already had provided Russia with aporox 1 m 152 mm shells...
Arestovich claimed that NK might supply at least 2 m such shells and some sources are stating that NK might provide in total at least 3m such shells and not only this kind of ammo and weapons plus other stuff.
Sadly I should agree with worst from these assumptions and predictions.....
 
Seems like Russia is going to win this, they are staying in for the long game.

American support is waning as we have a new war to focus on and that was the only thing keeping Ukraine in the game. Ukraine is out of soldiers, they are going to the 40 and 50 year olds now. After they are gone, they surrender or move to the women and children while Zelensky keeps begging for money.

I think you made this exact statement a year ago, but UKR hasnt fallen yet.
 
Seems like Russia is going to win this, they are staying in for the long game.

American support is waning as we have a new war to focus on and that was the only thing keeping Ukraine in the game. Ukraine is out of soldiers, they are going to the 40 and 50 year olds now. After they are gone, they surrender or move to the women and children while Zelensky keeps begging for money.
Fedor was a can who got rofl stomped by hendo
 
There is very big aspect that in Europe some countries despite does have a lot of cluster ammo due to " weakness culture " aren't willing not only to supply from their own stockpiles and also....doesn't agree to sign re export permits for countries their customers who had purchased these long ago too.
Also countries who does have land border with Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Russia can't afford to deplete their wartime stockpiles and instead should increase their weapons and ammunition stockpiles...


According to some sources NK might already had provided Russia with aporox 1 m 152 mm shells...
Arestovich claimed that NK might supply at least 2 m such shells and some sources are stating that NK might provide in total at least 3m such shells and not only this kind of ammo and weapons plus other stuff.
Sadly I should agree with worst from these assumptions and predictions.....

Yep, NK is basically one big ammo warehouse, been getting ready for war for over 70 years.
 
True but Russia was able to get an estimated 1 million artillery shells from NK alone while all of the West hasnt been able to supply that much that was needed in due time.
Artillery rounds cannot hit Kyiv with winter there an mud season. We are back to long range attacks with Russia having a harder time building key supplies such as cruise missiles an longer range rockets. The ammunition supplies will improve over the winter an North Korean will not be an endless supply line of 155 rounds due to South Korean an US concerns. Nazis in Washington can only deal with their fascism dreams for so long.
 

The Ukrainians Have Blown Up So Many Russian Vehicles Near Avdiivka That The Russians Are Now Attacking On Foot​


AA1kun8T.img

Artillery from the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade. 53rd Mechanized Brigade photo

"Russia’s staggering losses were “likely due to a combination of relative effectiveness of Ukraine’s modern hand-held anti-armor weapons, mines, uncrewed aerial vehicle-dropped munitions and precision artillery systems,” the ministry added. Both sides in the Avdiivka battle have fired cluster shells at the other, but these munitions work best against an exposed force—and in and around Avdiivka, it’s the Russians who are exposed.

Even Russia with its vast reserves of aged Cold War vehicles can’t afford to keep losing these vehicles at a rate of hundreds per week across Ukraine. Perhaps noting the Ukrainians’ success with dismounted infantry assaults in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk this summer, the Russians began holding back their surviving vehicles and, instead, sending the infantry out on foot.

“In contrast to the initial month of assaults, Russian forces are employing fewer vehicles in smaller numbers,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight noted. “There's a notable increase in the use of small tactical groups, consistently moving in the same areas despite prior losses.”

So far, it’s not working very well. “Ours advanced towards the coke plant [in northern Avdiivka], covering another hundred meters in the face of enemy fire,” one Russian observer reported. “Also, shock assault groups advanced from the right [southern] side of the village [of] Stepovoe on the northern side.”

“We managed to knock out the enemy with two landings. And here the progress amounted to several hundreds of meters, but achieved with considerable effort.”

“Considerable effort” in this case means potentially thousands of casualties on the bloody fields around Avdiivka. “It is plausible that Russia has suffered several thousand personnel casualties around the town since the start of October 2023,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.

To put that into perspective, 70,000 Ukrainian troops died in the first 18 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, while 120,000 Russians died in the same period. This according to an August report by The New York Times. All that is to say, around 3,900 Ukrainians and 6,700 Russians die per month, on average."


The meatwall continues.
 

The Ukrainians Have Blown Up So Many Russian Vehicles Near Avdiivka That The Russians Are Now Attacking On Foot​


AA1kun8T.img

Artillery from the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade. 53rd Mechanized Brigade photo

"Russia’s staggering losses were “likely due to a combination of relative effectiveness of Ukraine’s modern hand-held anti-armor weapons, mines, uncrewed aerial vehicle-dropped munitions and precision artillery systems,” the ministry added. Both sides in the Avdiivka battle have fired cluster shells at the other, but these munitions work best against an exposed force—and in and around Avdiivka, it’s the Russians who are exposed.

Even Russia with its vast reserves of aged Cold War vehicles can’t afford to keep losing these vehicles at a rate of hundreds per week across Ukraine. Perhaps noting the Ukrainians’ success with dismounted infantry assaults in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk this summer, the Russians began holding back their surviving vehicles and, instead, sending the infantry out on foot.

“In contrast to the initial month of assaults, Russian forces are employing fewer vehicles in smaller numbers,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight noted. “There's a notable increase in the use of small tactical groups, consistently moving in the same areas despite prior losses.”

So far, it’s not working very well. “Ours advanced towards the coke plant [in northern Avdiivka], covering another hundred meters in the face of enemy fire,” one Russian observer reported. “Also, shock assault groups advanced from the right [southern] side of the village [of] Stepovoe on the northern side.”

“We managed to knock out the enemy with two landings. And here the progress amounted to several hundreds of meters, but achieved with considerable effort.”

“Considerable effort” in this case means potentially thousands of casualties on the bloody fields around Avdiivka. “It is plausible that Russia has suffered several thousand personnel casualties around the town since the start of October 2023,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.

To put that into perspective, 70,000 Ukrainian troops died in the first 18 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, while 120,000 Russians died in the same period. This according to an August report by The New York Times. All that is to say, around 3,900 Ukrainians and 6,700 Russians die per month, on average."


The meatwall continues.

Crazy shit really, but it seems Putler wants Avdiivka at any cost....any cost no matter how utterly stupid it seems. However iy is hurting them as their armor isnt invinite as Russian soldiers lives seem to be.
Good spot for bradly's and cluster munitions to stop the meat walls.
 
For me unfortunately toady looks that our president had released wartime stockpile for re distribution. :(
I'm posting this with intent to have at least 10 days of delay.
If I have to gave road for ....equipment on balance of National Guard scheduled to keep for War ....this reality and I'm living in eurozone and full NATO member (not partner like senile Briben or Stoltenberg are talking about like laughable entertainment clown show.....like Putin and co too.)..

We are scheduled to prepare for war while we aren't Kurds ,( sorry for reality and offense ).
Our PM had scheduled to increase fuel storages even more than last year season.,...cos we are _ " idiots" and Kurds No x or xx....
 
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