International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V12

[SandisLL]

How in real life Russia fears to have land border with NATO?
Russia does have land border with Norway, NATO country since 1949 th.
This is considerably more worse for russia than some Ukr in NATO or even if Ukr had nukes ....

Murmansk oblastj does have very important nuclear submarines bases and nuclear weapons storage sites... also civilian nuclear power plant....
Really short time for missiles to fly .
Ukr variant had been joke if compare with this.

Also russia in case IF will be nuked from submarines and nor Moscow nor St.Pete will be main target.

 

[syct23]

Ukr attack not meeting expectations of west apperantly



https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

I could see their point. I’m sure they were expecting to use all of that land that was flooded due to the destruction of the dam.

but that is war. No plan on paper makes it to the battlefield

 

[Rational Poster]

How in real life Russia fears to have land border with NATO?
Russia does have land border with Norway, NATO country since 1949 th.
This is considerably more worse for russia than some Ukr in NATO or even if Ukr had nukes ....

Murmansk oblastj does have very important nuclear submarines bases and nuclear weapons storage sites... also civilian nuclear power plant....
Really short time for missiles to fly .
Ukr variant had been joke if compare with this.

Also russia in case IF will be nuked from submarines and nor Moscow nor St.Pete will be main target.

Obviously this was always some bullshit that only people without any geographic knowledge of the region will believe.

The quickest way to Moscow is through Poland and Estonia/Latvia, not through the Carpathians and then Ukraine.

Napoleon started in Lithuania and marched through Belarus by Smolensk nearly 1000km from the Ukrainian border. Over 2/3rds of Hitler's forces traveled a nearly an identical route though he did also march through the Carpathians after conquering Greece.

Geography is what it is, there's no getting around that fact.

 

[SandisLL]

Pardoned Wagner merc killed 1 and wounded 1 on train

No hurt people on vid but theres blood



Ukr attack not meeting expectations of west apperantly



https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

What kind of exceptations should had be fultfilled?
NONE.
1. Looks that Ukr still mainly is attempting to do some probe attacks.
2. " partners " had supplied considably lesser ammount of weapons than had been asked and refused to supply a lot of stuff they had asked for.

With so called " support " really better for Ukraine is to have defensive mode or agree with everything Putin will ask for.
Why not?
West does not want Ukr to win. In no case. This will be nightmare for west cos they fear from civil war in russia ....
China and India doesn't want nor Ukr nor Russia to win and the longer will be war the better for them cos multiple reasons. For Iran and NK is the same realpolitic.

 

[SandisLL]

Obviously this was always some bullshit that only people without any geographic knowledge of the region will believe.

The quickest way to Moscow is through Poland and Estonia/Latvia, not through the Carpathians and then Ukraine.

Napoleon started in Lithuania and marched through Belarus by Smolensk nearly 1000km from the Ukrainian border. Over 2/3rds of Hitler's forces traveled a nearly an identical route though he did also march through the Carpathians after conquering Greece.

Geography is what it is, there's no getting around that fact.

For strike?
Norway ....only one.

And how Russia in reality is in fear that NATO might strike Murmansk oblastj if they had removed at least 3 S-300 SAM complexes from Murmansk oblastj in order to relocate these to dumbass?

Btw about potetntial strikes you are bit wrong.

 

[SandisLL]

Murmansk oblastj is super important target... really with very high miliary value.

Estonia isn't big threat for Moscow at all as location.
While one real big thing is that they are physically capable to turn Ivangorod into Bakhmut No2 and Narva HPP in worse condition than this ukr HPP now does have.
In some 10-30 minutes and russia can't prevent this to happen.
Literally can't and here doesn't matter what kind of SAM batteries they will use.
Location is so close and suitable that here 0 chances to defend these 2 targets. Absolutely 0 chances and deNacification in this case might be done by WW2 era weapons. All jammers etc : 0 worth.

 

[Rational Poster]

For strike?
Norway ....only one.

And how Russia in reality is in fear that NATO might strike Murmansk oblastj if they had removed at least 3 S-300 SAM complexes from Murmansk oblastj in order to relocate these to dumbass?

Btw about poetntial strikes you are bit wrong.

Not for a strike, but invasion. I don't think an invasion force is going all the way through Norway.

 

[SandisLL]

Latvia might be usable mainly only as launching platform for cheap and lesser risky strikes on Sweden and Finland...
Something like this.

Lithuania already is cool cos they are capable to deNazify this Belarussian nuclear power plant with artillery... for transformators I think with 3 minutes shelling will be 100% enough.

 

[SandisLL]

Not for a strike, but invasion. I don't think an invasion force is going all the way through Norway.

With ground forces? Ofc not from Norway but they initially will need to disable some installations in Murmansk oblastj IF they want to fight vs Russia. Mandatory.

+ to invade Russia with ground forces I think no one is planning and the same about Belarus.
Even doesn't matter if it will be easy to do.

To control after successful occupation will not be possible for long term.
Even if they will not have large partisan units type stuff.
Passive sabotage alone will be nightmare and other stuff too ofc will happen.

These will not be invaded even if they didn't had nukes.
Large areas, very high long term impact from passive sabotage etc ...

 

[Denter]

It's lot easier to stay in power for a long time when you literally jail or kill your political opponents and force constitutional amendments to make you the dictator.

Absolutely. The groundwork for all of that had to be laid in the 1999-2012 timeframe however- which it was. Without buying off the right power centers, and without delivering improvements for the country to keep his popularity high, he never could have done it.

I continue to remain perplexed about the purpose of this war. After the seizure of Crimea and the Minsk agreements, IMO Russia had everything it needed to permanently keep Ukraine out of NATO and cause chaos there whenever it wanted.

 

[SandisLL]

Ha ha ha.
In 2008 th EU and NATO had f***ed up both Georgia and Ukraine and for a reason.
So all excuses about some NATO are just hidden attempts to build Russian world.

russians are dumb ....
I don't think that they even needs to have their own country just in order to serve elite.
Income disparity in russia is insane, higher than in Mexico and with Ukraine is the same reality.

It isn't fair and realistic discussion with well taught russia's advocates here.
They will continue french 1800 ies propaganda flowchart : press your tale each day and sooner or later crowd will accept any idiotic lies as reality.

 

[SandisLL]

Ofc ukraine always was stupid and idiotic. Even current gov are delusional.
Like some in reality NK and Iran's & China's advocates posting here , comrades.

Yes, due to 0 importance of Crimea and 0 refugees influx cos this shit in europe....they like about dumbass had gave f**** and all they symbolically applied some " sanctions " ruSSia easily might had bypassed...
So why not to go further?
Russians are in general stupid and if you will brainwash them properly, then they will be like Hitler and crowd in 1939 th. Something like this.

While their elite with smile might trade with anyone regardless from their religion, location, skin colour or nationality and actually " infantry " since 1990 ies in russia and ukraine is term widely used in private talks by businessmans and HR ppl.
It does means that you are capble to get replacement for empoyee or to find next one during some 1 week.
Welcome on board in reality.

 

[Rational Poster]

With ground forces? Ofc not from Norway but they initially will need to disable some installations in Murmansk oblastj IF they want to fight vs Russia. Mandatory.

+ to invade Russia with ground forces I think no one is planning and the same about Belarus.
Even doesn't matter if it will be easy to do.

To control after successful occupation will not be possible for long term.
Even if they will not have large partisan units type stuff.
Passive sabotage alone will be nightmare and other stuff too ofc will happen.

These will not be invaded even if they didn't had nukes.
Large areas, very high long term impact from passive sabotage etc ...

Well sure no one is actually going to invade, but I'm just saying that it's a bullshit talking point that Russia needs to control Ukraine to prevent an invasion.

NATO already controls the historical invasion route to Moscow for decades.

 

[SandisLL]

I will introduce also about one nice term meaning used by bussinessmans and investors in private business.
Office plancton.
__
In real life this is : employee working in office, regardless from formal education IF they are able to find next guy/ gal to do your job duties during some month long search...welcome to board : office plancton.
Criteria here is only one alone: how easy will be to replace business tool, sorry, employee working in office.

 

[Jack V Savage]

It depends what the dissidents are trying to do, but I can think of many reasons someone might earn a death sentence. In this very thread people have fantasized about killing Russian government officials.

Bold: We had a bonanza of basically free energy since about 1820, and global trade. That made everyone much, much richer. We've been through this before, this is wet streets cause rain fallacy.

I think it's really silly to deny that liberalism is responsible for escaping the Malthusian trap, but you do you. I worry about illiberalism weakening liberal societies, but I don't think illiberal gov't will ever be taken seriously as an actual ruling system again in developed countries.

 

[Cole train]

Absolutely. The groundwork for all of that had to be laid in the 1999-2012 timeframe however- which it was. Without buying off the right power centers, and without delivering improvements for the country to keep his popularity high, he never could have done it.

I continue to remain perplexed about the purpose of this war. After the seizure of Crimea and the Minsk agreements, IMO Russia had everything it needed to permanently keep Ukraine out of NATO and cause chaos there whenever it wanted.

Purpose is to stop ukr flying too close to west while oligarch fill their pockets at same time.

Everything started with maidan, shit i still remember family going "well theres going to be a war" back in 2014

 

[Denter]

I think it's really silly to deny that liberalism is responsible for escaping the Malthusian trap, but you do you. I worry about illiberalism weakening liberal societies, but I don't think illiberal gov't will ever be taken seriously as an actual ruling system again in developed countries.

It just depends on whether there are emergencies or not. This isn't even a philosophical disagreement at a certain point; its just a matter of practicality. Kings emerged because of warbands. War- a highly time sensitive emergency- only functions with strict hierarchies. "Normal order" leads to all sorts of processes and procedures being generated to smooth out the natural inequities of strict hierarchies. When emergencies come, even in liberal societies, hierarchy overtakes process and procedure out of necessity. Technologically, we won't have kings again unless we have warbands again; we only won't have illiberalism again if we have no emergencies again. Carl Schmitt wrote a great book about this- its not about what we prefer, its about what is needed. I think assuming we will not have emergencies again is naive.

The genius of America has been our flexibility in slipping into illiberal modes, then slipping out of them again when no longer needed without disrupting society. We've had our dictatorial periods, but we simply forget them and pretend they didn't happen. That's way, way better than burning the world down during every transition, like France.

 

[SandisLL]

Purpose is to stop ukr flying too close to west while oligarch fill their pockets at same time.

Everything started with maidan, shit i still remember family going "well theres going to be a war" back in 2014

Sure cos not proper oligarch.
You maybe think that Finland too should be under russia.
Why not, 5 th column is everywhere.

While for workforce nothing will change, business is business.

You still support russia and in depth always will do it.
Maidan wasn't cos EU or NATO.
Ukraine attempted to reach with EU/ EEZ trade agreement with lesser custom fees.
Yanukovich had rejected this cos he is russian puppet.
This.
Nothing wrong comrade.

Next stuff russian ants can't get in their brains ( cos genetic reason ) is that lawmaker in Ukraine is parliament not president.
Nothing wrong, russians never will get that some institutions or countries might function without tzar as ruler and lawmaker.

 

[Rod1]

Yes, I know that. Ukraine had plans to join NATO did it not?

NATO had not plans to accept Ukraine.

 

[SandisLL]

NATO had not plans to accept Ukraine.

EU too.
Also nor IMF nor WB nor EBRD had such plans to pump $ and EUR in this Ukraine.
Instead they had reccomended to reduce budget deficite % from GDP, to increase state treasury income, reduce inflation % and unemployment %, to improve national currency stability and to implement huge shitload of reforms how financial services and institutions are monitored.