https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/russia-will-soon-be-on-the-defense-but-then-what/
Latest update from Michael Kofman whose analysis of the war has largely been correct, key points:
*Russia is slowly pressing Ukraine out of Bakhmut after switching tactics away from envelopment and rotating their troops.
*The rate of attrition was favourable to Ukraine for a long time, but is not so favourable anymore and its worth considering whether Ukraine has committed to defending the city for too long.
*On the whole though, Russia is starting to switch to a defense posture as they anticipate the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
*The Russian winteroffensive will soon be over and on the whole it was as disappointing as Kofman expected.
*The question is now what Ukraine has left in the tank. Kofman believes it has 6 fresh brigades to work with, but is having to wait for an injection of ammunition which is on the way.
*all in all, Ukraine should have room for a series of offensives across the spring and into summer. It's hard to predict how they will go, but stay tuned.
*the big question is what happens after that: can and WILL the West keep providing Ukraine with the gear it needs to retain a defensive advantage over Russia?
*Russia has promised not to do another mobilization, but that will probably not work out for them as they likely will be unable to sustain this war without another mobilization.
So all in all, it's important to be realistic about prospects: the next months may be decisive in the war and if they are, it's because we may be seeing the high watermark for Western support. The situation on the battlefield is similar to last year, when Russia got stuck through attrition and Ukraine was preparing to go on the counteroffensive, but it's an open question whether that offensive will look like another Kharkiv (sweeping gains) or another Kherson (slow, attritional gains).