International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V10

[Strychnine]

 

[Vergilius]

Looking across the battlefields, it seems to me like Russia's "spring offensive" is faltering, which must be concerning for them. They've once again spent a ton of manpower and equipment for no tangible gain. By my rough count, they should still have some uncommitted reserves, but where to commit them? They've found no real weaknesses in the Ukrainian lines. All they can do is keep grinding on while basically getting nowhere.

Now the question is what happens with the mooted Ukrainian spring offensive. There are rumours they are getting ready to launch a major counterattack around Bakhmut. Personally, I'm a bit worried about the "sunk cost fallacy" getting them to expend more troops and equipment on that town than it is worth, when they should be probing the Russian lines in the South and look for a breakthrough there. With Russia expending so much on Bakhmut, it's quite likely you could find weaknesses in their lines elsewhere.

 

[PEB]

Fake Putin visit to Mariupol was to declare the area as Russian territory. He did this ahead of President Xi visit. It also means no charge in contested region so the Xi visit will be a pro Putin cheerleading display nothing more. He wants the eastern area of Ukraine an the race to get Xi involved is to get China to commit more direct military assistance.

 

[SandisLL]

Looking across the battlefields, it seems to me like Russia's "spring offensive" is faltering, which must be concerning for them. They've once again spent a ton of manpower and equipment for no tangible gain. By my rough count, they should still have some uncommitted reserves, but where to commit them? They've found no real weaknesses in the Ukrainian lines. All they can do is keep grinding on while basically getting nowhere.

Now the question is what happens with the mooted Ukrainian spring offensive. There are rumours they are getting ready to launch a major counterattack around Bakhmut. Personally, I'm a bit worried about the "sunk cost fallacy" getting them to expend more troops and equipment on that town than it is worth, when they should be probing the Russian lines in the South and look for a breakthrough there. With Russia expending so much on Bakhmut, it's quite likely you could find weaknesses in their lines elsewhere.

Good comment.

 

[San Marino]

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 19 March 2023
Key inflections in ongoing military operations:

• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces likely secured marginal gains near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) amidst continued Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City and may have advanced towards Berdychi, about 10km northwest of Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued erecting defensive fortifications throughout southern Ukraine.

The overall Russian spring offensive is thus likely approaching culmination
Ongoing Russian offensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar frontlines have failed to make more than incremental tactical gains in the first few months of 2023. Russia has committed the approximately 300,000 mobilized soldiers, called up by partial mobilization in September 2022 for the purpose of pursing exactly such a spring offensive, to these various offensive efforts. If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year. Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

She calls from a window?

We all know how this ends.

 

[SandisLL]

There ofc are also some things not good for ukr.....
Ukr does have tactical flaws in some areas and these are very serious....

For example Ukr had been criticised about some decisions and I found this critique valid.
They might had not allowed Bakhmut situation to happen.
Due to better radars for counter battery fire than russia does have they were technically capable to fight vs russian artillery more effectively and not to allow enemy go so close to Bakhmut.
IF they had provided artillery units with normal anti air defense....they didn't.
Exactly these machine guns, these laughted up russian naval autocannons mounted on MT LB, Shilka, Tunguska, ZU 2-23 and even 2x 14,5 mm and 4x14,5 mm old stuff mounted on trucks might had helped a lot.
Russia had used for attacks on ukr artillery drones with electric engines....
It isn't possible to use on them MANPADs with heat seeker heads with enough high effectivity....
Therefore old good stuff + small radars & IO/ optical sensors and jammers are ....to be used....

Ukr had lost at least 30 artillery units cos Lancet drones and russia then get closer to Bakhmut.

 

[SandisLL]

+ With Mariupol they too failed and heavily....
There ofc are huge suspicions that a lot of traitors possibly had commited to this idiotism.
Not blown up roads, etc measures ukraine didn't during 8 years....allowed russia to advance quickly and with low losses till they reached city...

With Soledar ukr looks that did properly and abadoned city only cos ammunition for mortars ended...rus losses were very huge, then mobile crematoriums appearad...
Severdodonetsk imho too wasn't good outcome for rus: a lot of losses in manpower and almost unusable city even today.... wreck of city cos communications etc as occupants told, will be restored in 2024 th...

 

[SandisLL]

It is rumoured that drunk medvedev recently had threated Netherlands with possible missile strike....

It is good, western europe soon will just start to think what stuff ruSSia is....
Otherwise too high number of ppl in western europe still are dreaming that they might think that some Ukraine is small village in another world and " let's sell them to uncles in Kremlin and we all will be happy forewer, uncles in Kremlin will be our friends " etc bullshit dreams.

 

[SandisLL]

Now I will talk about widely rumoured possible usage of nuclear artillery and why it is unlikely that russia today even might have 1 working shell....

The all idea of nuclear artillery was from late 1950 ies - early 1960 ies...
203 mm or 155 or 152 mm nuclear shell for artillery really is possible to build.
While fissile material's losses in shell's core elements processing are very high if compare with larger size warheads manufacturing.
It is very expensive process with high failure risks.

Control.
These shells doesn't have any code control mechanism.
Just container with shell and ofc container does have locks and code lock too.
Shell? Remove safety wire, install detonator ( like in artillery round ) and remowe next safety wire...
All is done, nuclear weapon is armed
...
While soon appeared relatively cheap missiles like Luna with longer range than artillery and also cheap to produce missile and also warhead while it prowided more power and longer range.
_
Then next gen with SCUD and Thocka missiles ....
Larger warhead, suitable for maintenance and diagnostics.... more power , easier to manufacture.... longer range....
And yup for these code control was possible..

While nuclear artillery shell is very expensive to manufacture and after this it is stored and abs charged after 4-6-12 months cycle.
After 10-12 years refubrishing is done by disassembling of shell, lenses and detonators replacement...etc...
Cool "option ".

Why to bother with these 1-5-10 kT shells IF.... the same Thocka might carry 10-150 kT warhead and is easier to do check ups etc + cheap and longer range?

One thing where for russia still was lucrative to maintain small diameter weapons with nuclear warheads is.... torpedoes with nuclear warheads...
Still it is easier to service something with 533mm diameter or more rathee than 152 mm or 203 mm shell that should be fired from barrel of rifled high pressure gun.....

 

[SandisLL]

In 1960 ies Luna and nuclear artillery shells didn't had code....
Box yeah but it might had been opened mechanically like thiefs are doing and then...

 

[Chesten_Hesten]

 

[AWilder]

why didnt they just shoot it?

 

[SandisLL]

This drone is usable as weapon only vs peasants who doesn't have average level air defense...this.
And for fighter airplanes it isn't problem in daytime to shot this drone down for...airplanes from 1941 th.

It is still usable cos doesn't needs much fuel and pilot and sill might carry valuable apparatus for survillance and info gathering.
ROI still is good...
It isn't large airplane with pilot, therefore xx cheaper flight hour etc....

 

[aries]

even if that was true it wouldn't be close. those poor unqualified women would stand no chance on the battlefield

What do you mean 'even' if it's true, you are aware Wagner have been recruiting serving prisoners, including rapists and that even the head of Wagner has accused the Kremlin of not supplying them enough ammunition (on purpose) and giving them virtually no training whatsoever?

 

[aries]

I bet if a woman launches an rpg or a bullet it kills all the same.

A Ukrainian officer who is responsible for all Sniper training in Ukraine says that female recruits are noticeably better on average then males. They are more stealthy, follow instruction more closely, have more discipline and take less risks. It doesn't take much strength to pull a trigger.

 

[aries]

This is incredibly pathetic....UK a naval powering basically having a fraction of its size.

Our economy is shit and has been for a long time, so we have far less money to spend. And we aren't in fear of being invaded or a war, so defence gets big cuts.

Whoever invades us will have to do so majorly from the sea, and no other countries have blue water navies capable of seriously threatening us with the exception of the US, who are our allies.

So why do we need a big navy?

I agree it's sad but pragmatically I can see why we've ended up in this position. I think we can just about manage to sail some Royal Marines across the world to defend the Maldives, if Argentina decide to try their luck again.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

they took 65% of a heavily fortified city within a month.

ukraine is desperately trying to defend bakhmut that theyre sending 16 year olds to the frontline.

bakhmut is gonna fall with couple of weeks

So if it hasn't fallen by the 3rd April will you actually admit being wrong about something?

 

[curryjunkie]

Our economy is shit and has been for a long time, so we have far less money to spend. And we aren't in fear of being invaded or a war, so defence gets big cuts.

Whoever invades us will have to do so majorly from the sea, and no other countries have blue water navies capable of seriously threatening us with the exception of the US, who are our allies.

So why do we need a big navy?

I agree it's sad but pragmatically I can see why we've ended up in this position. I think we can just about manage to sail some Royal Marines across the world to defend the Maldives, if Argentina decide to try their luck again.

maldives?, damm the falklands has gotten warmer , i agree years of defense cuts has gutted the army, but most countries in europe have done the same. only the USA and china spend on defense like theres no tommorow, as well as russia, but most of that goes into back pockets so it aint really effective.

 

[UFCUCF]

they took 65% of a heavily fortified city within a month.

ukraine is desperately trying to defend bakhmut that theyre sending 16 year olds to the frontline.

bakhmut is gonna fall with couple of weeks

The battle for Bakhmut has been going for at least 6 months. No other battle has gone farther to show the impotency of Putin’s once feared military. It is an unimportant city, tactically, and Russia wasted its most experienced Wagner troops and most of Pregohsin’s prisoner army to get nowhere fast.

Bakhmut is less than 600 miles from Moscow and on the same continental land mass. The fact that Putin can’t take a city like this at will is humiliating for him.I don’t know how accurate the reporting is on the 16 year olds or the female troops but they seem to be inflicting heavy losses on Russia.