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Opinion Russia could be ready to attack Nato within five years, says secretary general

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In speech in London Mark Rutte says he expects alliance members to agree to raise military spending to 5% of GDP

Dan Sabbagh Defence and security editor

Russia could be ready to attack Nato within five years and leaders of the western alliance are expected to agree to increase military spending to 5% of GDP this month to contain the threat, the alliance’s secretary general has said.

Mark Rutte said in a speech in London on Monday that Nato needed “a quantum leap in our collective defence”, which would include significant rearmament to deter an increasingly militarised Russia.

That would include a fivefold increase in air defence, thousands more tanks and millions more artillery shells to boost stockpiles and ensure Nato countries match existing levels of Russian production.

Speaking at Chatham House after meeting the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, Rutte said, looking ahead to the summit in The Hague this month: “I expect allied leaders to agree to spend 5% of GDP on defence.” Of that 3.5% of GDP would be core military spending.
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- I'm just tired of those stupid wars in the name of that goblin looking Putin. We al know you gotg a mcdojo blackbelt!

“Danger will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends,” Rutte emphasised, reflecting a belief that the Kremlin will not demilitarise even it agrees to a ceasefire and eventually to peace with Kyiv.

The remarks provoked an immediate response from Moscow. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said that Nato “is demonstrating itself as an instrument of aggression and confrontation” with the emerging plan.

Western military planners believe Russia will seek to retain an active and experienced army of more than 600,000 personnel as well as maintaining defence spending of about 6.5% of the country’s GDP, and be able to threaten Nato’s eastern flank in less than half a decade.

On his trip to the UK, Rutte visited Sheffield Forgemasters, a nationalised steelmaker owned by the Ministry of Defence that makes complex components for nuclear submarines, before meeting Starmer and then giving his speech.

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The former Dutch prime minister has been pushing a proposal for Nato members to agree to lift core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by about 2035, along with a further 1.5% on cyber and other related military infrastructure.

Britain is expected to sign up to the plan, to be formally confirmed at the summit, as part of an effort to maintain the support of the US president, Donald Trump, who has pressed for the 5% target.

Rutte would not set a concrete date for achieving the target – demonstrating it was still a subject of negotiation among allies – though he initially proposed 2032. Other countries, including the UK, have indicated they expect to settle on 2035. “These discussions are ongoing,” Rutte said.

Justifying the need for extra spending, Rutte said Nato needed “a 400% increase in air and missile defence” as part of a wider rearmament to maintain credible deterrence and defence. “We see in Ukraine how Russia delivers terror from above, so we will strengthen the shield that protects our skies,” Rutte said.
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There will also have to be wider restocking of weapons, run down initially during the long period of post-cold war peace and then because so much has been donated to Ukraine to help it fend off the full-scale Russian invasion over the past three years.

“Our militaries also need thousands more armoured vehicles and tanks, millions more artillery shells, and we must double our enabling capabilities, such as logistics, supply, transportation and medical support,” Rutte said.

Britain has promised to increase defence spending from the current 2.33% of GDP to 2.5% by 2027 and to 3% in the early 2030s. But a week ago, Starmer acknowledged that discussions about Nato’s future military needs were also taking place. “There are discussions about what the contribution should be going into the Nato conference in two or three weeks’ time,” the prime minister said as he unveiled the UK’s strategic defence review, part of a wider conversation about “what sort of Nato will be capable of being as effective in the future”.
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Russia said the threat was being exaggerated and that ordinary citizens would have to bear the cost. “European taxpayers will spend their money to defuse some threat that they say comes from our country, but it is nothing but an ephemeral threat,” Peskov said.

Rutte was expected to welcome the UK’s strategic defence review. The document said Britain faced “a new era of threat” and that in order to deter Russia the UK had to become, in the words of Starmer, “battle-ready”.

Last week, one of the three members of the defence review team, the foreign policy expert Fiona Hill, said the UK needed to recognise that Russia considered itself at war with Britain and that the US under Trump was no longer a reliable ally. “We’re in pretty big trouble,” Hill said in an interview with the Guardian.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/09/nato-chief-russia-quantum-leap-defence
 
Russias can military can’t even put a dent in Ukraine. Lmao at them doing anything. Maybe they’d be able to take North Korea if Kim’s fatass has a falling out with putcan.
 
Quick!

Conscript another Million Troops!!
 
Russia, the huge empire, is looking more like a kitten in this war with Ukraine. At this point, Russia only looks impressive on a map.

I mean most of the EU is weak, but if you can't get past little Ukraine with your huge country, how do you plan to do anything with the rest of Europe?

Russian strength lies with being allies with China and other countries. That is a huge base you can use to launch military operations. For other countries to use. Because Russia has nothing.
 
Russia, the huge empire, is looking more like a kitten in this war with Ukraine. At this point, Russia only looks impressive on a map.

I mean most of the EU is weak, but if you can't get past little Ukraine with your huge country, how do you plan to do anything with the rest of Europe?

Russian strength lies with being allies with China and other countries. That is a huge base you can use to launch military operations. For other countries to use. Because Russia has nothing.
A lot of it is just Siberian wasteland. There might be some resources there, but they aren't getting much of a return in things like tax revenue or manpower from it. Russia and Ukraine are probably close to a similar size in real strength and power if you take out the near useless parts.
 
Of course, India and Pakistan just attacked each other.

Ukraine has attacked Russia numerous times.

Is this a sensible sentiment?
Ukraine doesn't have nukes and India and Pakistan have skirmishes, not invasions.

It's dumb to think Russia is going to risk getting nuked in an unwinnable fight where the best outcome is a draw. They almost certainly would not have attacked Ukraine if they knew they'd encounter this much resistance. Russia is ultimately going to be too much for Ukraine but is a paper tiger beyond that.
 
Their MIC has definitely ramped up and can now produce munitions faster probably faster than anywhere else in the world, so there is that. However, their military is a mess and they’re going to to suffer a population problem that would make the idea of invading Western Europe far fetched. That’s only if America is unable or unwilling to get involved, because if America is willing to defend Europe it goes from far fetched to suicidal
 
Russia also said they'd go nuclear if Ukraine attacked within their borders (among various other threats to go nuclear). Their bluff has been called far too many times in this "short military operation"
 
Russia's GDP in 2023 was 2.021 trillion.
6.5% is 131.365 billion.

UK's GDP was 3.381 trillion.
Germany's GDP was 4.526 trillion.
France's GDP was 3.052 trillion.
2.5% is 273.95 billion

Should we add in the rest of NATO now?
 
Of course, India and Pakistan just attacked each other.

Ukraine has attacked Russia numerous times.

Is this a sensible sentiment?

Sort of

No 2 nuclear powers have really had a serious go at one another and I gotta think nukes might be a major reason why.

Russia has them but Ukraine doesn't...meaning as long as they don't bust them out they can probably continue on with this nonsense..
but I'm pretty sure the consequences of a nuclear strike would be world changing. And Ukraine doesn't have much choice other than to slug it out with a nuclear power otherwise I'm sure they would not have chosen to do so. And if Ukraine was in nato or hadn't given up their nukes Russia likely wouldn't be doing this shit.


Russia and India and Pakistan is all a lot different than say a direct attack on the US or nato ally that would be treated as such. And notice India and Pakistan both chilled out pretty quick ....I wonder why that was.


So yea
It seems like you might be nit picking at a pretty sensible comment.

Go ahead and tell me ... what do you think would happen if Russia attacks a nato country or the US? Then ask yourself do I find this likely to occur? Ill give ya shot down fighter jet or drone or something sure ...but past that really is opening pandoras box and while I don't trust the world's elite I do suspect living out their days in a bomb shelter is not really on the to do list and do sort of trust their self preservation instincts ....for the most part.
 
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