- Joined
- Dec 20, 2010
- Messages
- 30,799
- Reaction score
- 7,619
He said there would be another round of QE before the end of 2015 (and he also guaranteed no rate hike, but we didn't bet on that) and that YOY GDP growth would be negative (part of his "biggest crash ever" thread). When it became clear that he was going to lose, he pretended to have mistakenly thought that he was betting that the YOY Q4 GDP growth rate would be lower in 2015 than it was in 2014. I said that his claim sounded bizarre given the discussion but that I'd release him from the consequences of his loss.
Interestingly, later in the exchange where he backed out, he indicating that he didn't even know what GDP was. He also betrayed his finance guy act by demonstrating that he didn't even know what shorting was.
Here's what I mean:
!!!
The change caused by the ARRA was in line with expectations. The baseline was worse than was estimated at the time of the chart. Bad example.
Hopefully others who followed that thread got something out of the time you put into it. Engaging with guys like Greoric on internet forums is only fruitful in the sense that one might make points that enlighten lurkers.