I'd have to say Barao, especially since Cruz would have to be in his best physical shape ever for this fight anyway and instead the two will meet after more than a 2 year layoff and a nasty injury...
I doubt that Cruz could win against any of the top 5 BW's after such a layoff.
I think that is why he doesn't get a tuneup, he would risk losing.
Look at what happened to Mir after his layoff, couldn't beat off for a few fights.
Barao will have a big advantage because he has fought recently and Cruz is coming off a reeeaaaalllly long lay-off. It's gonna be really tough to step in with that kind of competition after that long without a warm up fight.
Depends on how Cruz is after coming back from injury. If he's just as good as before, I think his wrestling and footwork and cardio will help him win the fight. (Not cardio as in he'll out-last Barao because Barao has great cardio as well. Cardio as in he'll be able to keep moving in and out for 5 rounds like he has shown before)
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