Realistically, what are Gaethje's chances against Topuria?

[hbombbisping]

Kicking and uppercuts are his real path to victory. Maybe catching Ilia in a scramble and reigning down shots on him.

He's the dawg here for sure but he still has the tools to put any man out even at 38.

 

[NicholasJBasile]

He's fighting another orthadox fighter so it's Justins power leg kick to the outside of Ilia's lead leg, which is very good for Justin. You know he's gonna throw it over and over, so we can expect a few to land for sure. And the good thing is that you never really see Justin get counterd with his leg kicks, he's pretty good and timing them.

I also think playing the clinch game and pinning Ilia against the cage will be effective. Justin the bigger guy here and if he can get that position, he can use those knees to his legs and dirty boxing. At that range, Ilia can't really do much damage.

The first two rounds will be very intresesting.

Well I sure do like your optimism. Maybe you see something that others don't -- time will tell. I'd love to see Gaethje put up a good fight.

 

[Last Falconry]

Realistically he has like a 2% chance of victory and roughly a 98% chance of being left in a twitching heap. Particularly if he looks like he did against Paddy

 

[JKS]

Well I sure do like your optimism. Maybe you see something that others don't -- time will tell. I'd love to see Gaethje put up a good fight.

I think he will put up a good fight and will do better than people expect. I still favor Ilia to win this one by KO. I think Justin will be effective early with that strategy which will prolong the fight. But I also think Ilia will have some adjustments and answer to that.

 

[TriangleMonkey]

Dude ain’t got much a chance here outside a really off-night by Topuria, and I mean a really off-night

 

[Hymen Crusher]

If they fought ten times justin wins one. Topuria gets injured or he lands a big shot. 9 out of 10 he probably gets koed inside of 2 rounds. Maybe prime justin could leg kick his way in but I dont think so. Topuria is the best fighter p4p in mma since prime jon.

 

[Captain Insano]

Low.

He's getting dropped and KO'd.

He's too wild.

 

[mooseman17]

Pre personal problems, I'd say not good at all. But who knows where Topuria’s head is at this moment. He could be an absolute mess or maybe he now has a weight lifted off his shoulders, who the hell knows. So I’d say his chances are a lot better but I’d still say 1/5 at best.

 

[Ibm]

Hes the perfect style to beat Talapia actually.

 

[smiles mma]

I think justin knows this is his last chance, and has very little chance. I'm guessing this might be a fight he has to move backward and fight smart, or hes going to try and smother ilia with forward pressure and also keep damaging the legs

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

He's currently +400, I think he should be closer to +700. This will be Topuria's easiest title fight imo. Sucks for Gaethje but he's going to get KO'd and end up a shoop thread.

RIP Sweet Prince

 

[Eric Silva 2.0]

I hate it, but I get it, and it's the right thing to do. Justin has always been a company man and he earned this shot at Topuria. I ain't gonna hate on anyone for chasing their dreams.

But I hate that this has to be his last fight. Statistically, it's a terrible matchup for him. HORRIBLE. I love the guy too much to want to see him face-planted in his last professional fight. Honestly, with Topuria in his prime and Justin being where he’s at, I’d say Topuria wins this 85-90% of the time.

But, just to play devil's advocate here: Does Justin have a path to victory if he stays disciplined? If he can keep Topuria out of boxing range and just spam those leg kicks to kill his movement? And what if he finally implements his wrestling to grind him out? If he follows a smart gameplan and avoids the mistake Charles Oliveira made, could he pull off the upset?

I just hope he can come out of it unscathed. What do you guys think? Is it a total mismatch or does the old lion have one last trick up his sleeve?

I personally gotta go Topuria. 9 times out of 10.

Topuria wins 90-95% of the time. I still think Toppy is better at FW, not LW. I think your post lays out what I see happening. The leg kicks might be one area where it might change the momentum of the fight. I don't see his wrestling as a serious threat. He'll be almost 38 when they fight. I think Justin has been a very good fighter and super fun to watch, I'm a fan. I just don't hink he's on Topyy's level. He has a puncher's chance.

 

[fedoriswar37]

I honestly am a huge Gaethje fan but good lord this is a bad matchup for him. Toupurias power and precision is going to be too much.

 

[HavokHarmon]

Would honestly be surprised if it lasted more than 2 rounds. Even the best version of Justin struggles with Ilia and this is far from the best version of Justin.

 

[pamirec]

The odds are against him, but Justin can surprise. He’s won like 8 fights as an underdog. I don’t know if Ilia’s divorce will affect his performance, but with his power a few clean shots and it’s nighty night for Justin.

 

[Neck&Neck]

Toppy is going to put a beating on Gaethje like he was his ex wife’s lawyer

 

[balkanbomber85]

Justin has the potential to be Topurinas Buster Douglas.

Its the best time for a shot he will ever have and I can definitely see him surviving Tops early shots and then stopping him in rd 4 or 5.

 

[RichardHarrow]

A younger crisper better chinned Justin might be able to pull it off after absorbing a lot of damage but hes been in too many wars and was cracked by weak fisted Paddy.

I believe he gets knocked out at some point in the 2-3 round.

 

[Fedor Fan]

Gay cheese has a chance vs anyone at 155.

Remember his head kick out of nowhere vs Dustin.

Illia is quality but not invincible. Until it happens we don't know what will happen.

I personally want to see it.

 

[Thick_Strong_Tight]

I would actually say a kicking chance, lol.

There's no way Gaethje can try to trade punches in the pocket with this guy. It just can't happen. Otherwise, he'll be having a quick nap just like Charles did.

It kinda frustrates me to see his wrestling background and how good he actually is, only to see him never fvking use it. But yeah I agree with you. I give 10% to Justin because hey it's fighting and anything can happen but Topuria right now in his prime is a scary sight. I don't think anyone can trade with that guy in the pocket regardless of if they're 145ers or 155ers or even 170ers.

That guy power is stupid. That's the kind of thing that you can't learn, you're just born with it.

100% agree, it's frustrating to see a guy with good wrestling that has almost never used it, he definitely would be wise to try to implement it in this fight but realistically he probably won't start now. Shame too because he's substantially bigger and it would be very helpful given the speed/crispness difference in their striking.