Rank champions from most to least likely to lose their next title fight against their presumptive challenger

Most likely to lose
Dern to Weili Zhang
Aspinall to Gane
Volkanovski to Lopes
Makhachev to Usman
Harrison to Nunes
Pantoja to Van
Shevchenko to Silva
Pereira to Ulberg
Dvalishvili to Yan
Topuria to Paddy
Chimaev to Imavov
Less likely to lose

The lineup of champs is quite good currently; most champs will be favourites in any title fight
 
My picks.

1.Dern (Suarez)
2. Aspinall (Gane)
3. Volkanovski (Lopes)
4. Harrison (Nunes)
5. Shevchenko (Silva)
6. Pantoja (Van)
7. Pereira (Ulberg)
8. Makhachev (Usman)
9. Topuria (Pimblett/Gaethje)
10. Chimaev (Imavov)
11. Dvalishvili (Yan)
No order, just lowest weight class to highest in the Men's division.. fighter with best chance to beat the current Champ, but not a certainty, just the best chance in the division.

Pantoja (Van, Horiguchi)
Merab (Yan, Umar)
Volk (Sterling, Moesevar.. spelling?)
Topuria (Arman, Paddy)
Islam (Soriano)
Khamzat (Hernandez)
Alex (Ankalaev, Olberg)
Aspinal (Gane, Alex)
 
1. Dern (Suarez)
2. Harrison (Nunes)
3. Aspinall (Gane)
4. Shevchenko (Silva)
5. Pereira (Ulberg)
6. Pantoja (Van)
7. Volkanovski (Lopes)
8. Topuria (Pimblett/Gaethje)
9. Dvalishvili (Yan)
10. Chimaev (Imavov)
11. Makhachev (Usman)

I feel like there's a clear line here where the jump goes from "quite possible" to "unlikely at best"

And also, imagine how much this would be changed up if we saw the names like Evloev, Arman, and Shavkat? Shame we're not allowed to have competitive matchups for the most competitive divisions in the UFC.
 
My picks.

1.Dern (Suarez)
2. Aspinall (Gane)
3. Volkanovski (Lopes)
4. Harrison (Nunes)
5. Shevchenko (Silva)
6. Pantoja (Van)
7. Pereira (Ulberg)
8. Makhachev (Usman)
9. Topuria (Pimblett/Gaethje)
10. Chimaev (Imavov)
11. Dvalishvili (Yan)
I would maybe swap harrison with shevchenko, but other than that i'd agree with this list
 
1. Dern (Suarez)
2. Harrison (Nunes)
3. Aspinall (Gane)
4. Shevchenko (Silva)
5. Pereira (Ulberg)
6. Pantoja (Van)
7. Volkanovski (Lopes)
8. Topuria (Pimblett/Gaethje)
9. Dvalishvili (Yan)
10. Chimaev (Imavov)
11. Makhachev (Usman)

I feel like there's a clear line here where the jump goes from "quite possible" to "unlikely at best"

And also, imagine how much this would be changed up if we saw the names like Evloev, Arman, and Shavkat? Shame we're not allowed to have competitive matchups for the most competitive divisions in the UFC.
Nah we need less interesting match ups because “names.”
 
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