Political Betting Thread

[longway]

I think this is info pertinent to people betting the lines still open on various sites. Go to 26:20, and this segment ends at 29:15 . To me, he presents evidence that is difficult to reconcile without accepting significant election fraud in WI.

Summary: In WI, only one exception to providing ID to vote is 'Indefinite confinement' (IC) eg you are bedridden. Prior to 2020, the maximum number of people who asked for this type of absentee voting was 14,000 or so in 2018, which in itself was exceptional. In 2020, it was 169,000. Legally, COVID was not considered a reason sufficient to request this status. Then they checked social media for 10,000 of this group at random. Found about 400, and of those, they concluded only 10 definitely met the standard of IC and 38 were definitely not IC, rest were inconclusive.

There is plenty of other stuff, but this one really stands out.



Can anyone think of a plausible reason for such a spike that is not connected to a systemic attempt to defraud the election in WI? I think the idea that there is 'no evidence' now has been debunked. As Scott Adams says the narrative has now changed from 'no evidence of fraud' to 'judges have found no evidence of fraud'. So, backpedalling has started.

 

[Bradillac]

Damn, I completely forgot that Sherdog had political bets thread. I missed out on all the fun. I'm just happy Bodog finally paid out my Biden winnings yesterday, even though this thing has been done for weeks.

 

[Oblivian]

My god, some of you are legitimately retarded.

I already have a bet with @rev0lver. He was the first to PM me about it last week.

Just because some of you decided you wanted in later doesn’t mean I HAVE to oblige anyone else.

November 19th you posted: "come on Biden backers. I’ll bet you $200 Biden is not the next president. You have to give me +1000 odds which is honestly on the low end. If this was still up on a bookie, it would be at least that."

November 19th Roads55 posted: "I'll take that bet though if you are serious.."

Literally the same day. Now we are "legitimately retarded" for calling you out on not holding to that? We aren't the ones holding a bet at +1000 that you now realize should be at least +5000....

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

November 19th you posted: "come on Biden backers. I’ll bet you $200 Biden is not the next president. You have to give me +1000 odds which is honestly on the low end. If this was still up on a bookie, it would be at least that."

November 19th Roads55 posted: "I'll take that bet though if you are serious.."

Literally the same day. Now we are "legitimately retarded" for calling you out on not holding to that? We aren't the ones holding a bet at +1000 that you now realize should be at least +5000....

I already have that bet going with someone else who took the initiative to PM me. I have nothing against Roads and if he had PM’d me first, I would’ve accepted his bet. I never said I was going to bet everyone and their mother. Not sure why this is still being discussed.

 

[rev0lver]

Can anyone think of a plausible reason for such a spike that is not connected to a systemic attempt to defraud the election in WI? I think the idea that there is 'no evidence' now has been debunked. As Scott Adams says the narrative has now changed from 'no evidence of fraud' to 'judges have found no evidence of fraud'. So, backpedalling has started.

Covid is the reason. It just made the process of absentee voting easier for them in a year where far more people voted absentee, and any voter can designate their self as such if they choose to. Voter ID laws don't even do anything in the first place except disenfranchise a handful of real voters. They still had to go through the same processes otherwise. None of that is evidence of voter fraud.

"Judges have found no evidence of fraud" because that's the important descriptor in the context of a legal outcome. There's no backpedaling and there's not going to be any because there's nothing to backpedal on. Dude just lost.

 

[Roads55]

https://betting.betfair.com/politic...fair-market-settlement-latest-051120-204.html

some clarity on when they will settle , kinda pissed they cancelled unmatched bets for no reason though, feels like a cash grab on their part

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

My bookie finally settled bets in favor for Biden Yesterday, they gave all Trump betters some free play bets and said if the results are overturned, Trump bettors will get their W.

 

[Roads55]

Nitrogen settled as well by the looks of it, absolutely tremendous to see biden winnings compounded by bitcoin price growth.. no get out of jail free cards for trump bettors on there though. 3x rollover for mybookie free bets apparently, doubt there was that much money wagered there in the first place s they are a pretty small book.

 

[Barkus]

Nitrogen settled as well by the looks of it, absolutely tremendous to see biden winnings compounded by bitcoin price growth.. no get out of jail free cards for trump bettors on there though. 3x rollover for mybookie free bets apparently, doubt there was that much money wagered there in the first place s they are a pretty small book.

I live bet Biden as he pulled away around -500 but I would have been better off not making the bet at all since I converted btc to cash on pinny and the price of btc rose 50% since. Still waiting on pinny to grade it.

 

[rev0lver]

I live bet Biden as he pulled away around -500 but I would have been better off not making the bet at all since I converted btc to cash on pinny and the price of btc rose 50% since. Still waiting on pinny to grade it.

Lol I had a long convo with my barber about XRP before it ballooned up and was gonna put my Biden winnings into there. Real nice that Bovada paid out like a week after that spike. Could've got like 2.5x on my winnings.

 

[longway]

Lol I had a long convo with my barber about XRP before it ballooned up and was gonna put my Biden winnings into there. Real nice that Bovada paid out like a week after that spike. Could've got like 2.5x on my winnings.

I've never understood why XRP has any value at all. It's not even a cryptocurrency, it just gets burned whenever there is a transaction, and there is plenty XRP for 100s of years if necessary. Ripple doesn't even have to bid on the open market for XRP, it has plenty for its operations. I think I will set some shorts on it.

 

[Roads55]

I've never understood why XRP has any value at all. It's not even a cryptocurrency, it just gets burned whenever there is a transaction, and there is plenty XRP for 100s of years if necessary. Ripple doesn't even have to bid on the open market for XRP, it has plenty for its operations. I think I will set some shorts on it.

It's literally designed to be worthless too lol, ppl still believe that major banks are using it and more will adopt it. also a lot of plebs look at btc and see $19k while xrp is 60 cents and buy that instead.

edit: yeah I already have a short on it from around 66 cents, shorted it on the previous high too, it might make another run but it will dump very hard when it does. and if btc breaks down more from here ofc it will follow.

 

[longway]

It's literally designed to be worthless to lol, ppl still believe that major banks are using it and more will adopt it. also a lot of plebs look at btc and see $19k while xrp is 60 cents and buy that instead.

edit: yeah I already have a short on it from around 66 cents, shorted it on the previous high too, it might make another run but it will dump very hard when it does. and if btc breaks down more from here ofc it will follow.

Buy the rumour, sell the news is the play here I hope.

 

[benebox]

Buy the rumour, sell the news is the play here I hope.

It should be noted that one of the reasons XRP has shot up because of the Airdrop of SparkTokens on the 12th. People are stupid and are buying XRP at 70 cent to get a token worth 0.001, not that I'm complaining as an XRP holder.

 

[benebox]

£20 Trump +2900 to win £580. Looks like there is lots of proof of fraud, just a matter of wether they get away with it

 

[longway]

£20 Trump +2900 to win £580. Looks like there is lots of proof of fraud, just a matter of wether they get away with it

I initially was not sold on this recording, as the commentary could be misleading. But then I saw this, this is the same lady with the blonde dreadlocks in both afaiu anyway.



Maybe it's not an USB but something innocuous like crack.

 

[rev0lver]

£20 Trump +2900 to win £580. Looks like there is lots of proof of fraud, just a matter of wether they get away with it

There isn't and you threw away $20

All the claims in Georgia fall kinda flat when a hand recount showed no irregularities. There's a lot of claims of fraud but not a lot of proof. They're just trying to throw whatever rumors they hear without substantiating a single one and keep getting laughed out of court. Far more examples of made-up and debunked assertions of fraud than there's been anything halfway credible. We knew this would happen no matter what. These desperate legal attempts are just gonna fizzle out and Biden's win will shortly become official.

 

[longway]

There isn't and you threw away $20

All the claims in Georgia fall kinda flat when a hand recount showed no irregularities. There's a lot of claims of fraud but not a lot of proof. They're just trying to throw whatever rumors they hear without substantiating a single one and keep getting laughed out of court. Far more examples of made-up and debunked assertions of fraud than there's been anything halfway credible. We knew this would happen no matter what. These desperate legal attempts are just gonna fizzle out and Biden's win will shortly become official.

An audit and canvass were promised, but only a recount took place. If you are alleging fraudulent votes a recount does nothing to address the concerns raised.

 

[rev0lver]

An audit and canvass were promised, but only a recount took place. If you are alleging fraudulent votes a recount does nothing to address the concerns raised.

Then that should be the only thing brought up though which it isn't lol. I keep seeing shit about Dominion machines or ballots being counted multiple times, and the hand recount debunks that by itself.

Fraudulent votes is just a stupid claim imo with no realistic basis. Sure, you might be able to find some individual instances of people trying to vote fraudulently (which could've happened on both sides btw), but a mass operation is hardly even feasible and there's no evidence for it. The evidence is "we didn't think we would lose, so the winner must've cheated", and they take that conclusion and go after whatever they can possibly find no matter how flimsy or legitimate.

 

[Roads55]

biden 1.02, market is finally seeing sense, state markets still some 1.03-1.05 left though.