Political Betting Thread

[longway]

By not correctly modeling what the voter breakdown will look like. Which is infinitely more likely than dozens of polling organizations being in on a conspiracy to fabricate poll results.

That pollster seems to have done a decent job in MI WI and PA. Pretty far off the vote share in FL though, the RCP avg was more accurate there.

I don't know what you are talking about re FL. Trafalgar's last poll nailed it to about 1% The only reason RCP was even in the ballpark was bc it included Susquehanna and Trafalgar without Nate slimeball's bs weighting system.

90% of the polling firms got it wrong in the same direction. This doesn't happen unless it's deliberate. The link I showed uses the same target smart voter data as the rest of them. Why are all their models biased in the same way? Why did BDP get it right using the same database? It's not possible to happen by chance, and however unlikely you think a conspiracy is, its the only possible answer.

There are impossibilities like ABC +17 WI poll, and Selzer showing Indie voter swing by 28% in one month. They are cooking the results, its undeniable at this point.

These pollsters are funded by organisations who are extremely biased, and they get the biased results they want. Whatever the flaws of Trafalgar, they are honest, and they have done a far better job than the rest of them combined, with a few notable exceptions.

 

[rev0lver]

I don't know what you are talking about re FL. Trafalgar's last poll nailed it to about 1% The only reason RCP was even in the ballpark was bc it included Susquehanna and Trafalgar without Nate slimeball's bs weighting system.

90% of the polling firms got it wrong in the same direction. This doesn't happen unless it's deliberate. The link I showed uses the same target smart voter data as the rest of them. Why are all their models biased in the same way? Why did BDP get it right using the same database? It's not possible to happen by chance, and however unlikely you think a conspiracy is, its the only possible answer.

There are impossibilities like ABC +17 WI poll, and Selzer showing Indie voter swing by 28% in one month. They are cooking the results, its undeniable at this point.

These pollsters are funded by organisations who are extremely biased, and they get the biased results they want. Whatever the flaws of Trafalgar, they are honest, and they have done a far better job than the rest of them combined, with a few notable exceptions.

No, it's definitely not the only possible answer. A very reasonable possibility is them once again underestimating turnout among certain groups. Traditional sampling methods could also just be getting outdated in how they gather participants for regular polling. There could also be a subset of Trump voters who just avoid pollster contacts altogether because they see it as part of the liberal/elite machine. Honestly would not rule that last part out.

Trafalgar being consistently very wrong in certain states like AZ, NV, and now GA between 2016 and 2020 shows they're missing something too, or are using an improper method.

edit: oh for FL I meant the link you gave showed a margin somewhat close for FL, but the actual vote share was pretty far off

 

[rev0lver]

Mad?

Sorry, when someone admits to being "as far left as you can get" (commie scum), I automatically assume that person is very low IQ.

You are openly admitting to supporting ideas that have been proven to fail across several decades and multiple continents. JFL. You are openly admitting to supporting anti-American ideas. You are shitting on the heads of all the people who fought and died for your freedom. The people who built the freest, most prosperous country to ever exist. Do you actually understand the effort and sacrifice that went in to putting you in the position you are right now?

I'm not even American LOL.

It's funny how it's always people enjoying the fruits of capitalism and freedom who are so open to far left regimes. The people who actually lived under those types of ideas would slap you in the face if they could.

Have a nice day.

I'm definitely mad that your book allowed multiples on the election :/ (also go Chelsea). Maybe mine did for the overall but I was too focused on state betting toward the end.

Pretty sure I don't have a low IQ but thanks for your input on that. I tend to think the opposite for conservatives but don't make generalizations. I work with very intelligent ones who just don't want to pay higher taxes or lose 1031 Exchanges.

I support America catching up to most of the modern world and offering things like public healthcare and education, and effectively combating climate change. Unfortunately in America that's seen as being very far left. I love my country, I love our personal freedoms, I love BBQ, MMA, and I bet I can shotgun a beer faster than most in this thread. But part of loving your country is trying to make it better and not going backward toward old problems. That's my personal take. But I don't want to talk about it too much here, not really the place.

 

[longway]

No, it's definitely not the only possible answer. A very reasonable possibility is them once again underestimating turnout among certain groups. Traditional sampling methods could also just be getting outdated in how they gather participants for regular polling. There could also be a subset of Trump voters who just avoid pollster contacts altogether because they see it as part of the liberal/elite machine. Honestly would not rule that last part out.

Trafalgar being consistently very wrong in certain states like AZ, NV, and now GA between 2016 and 2020 shows they're missing something too, or are using an improper method.

edit: oh for FL I meant the link you gave showed a margin somewhat close for FL, but the actual vote share was pretty far off

You can criticise Trafalgar, but that's just stuff that can be expected. Trafalgar acknowledged mistakes and did a way better job this cycle, than 2018.

Previously you were telling me that polling methods showed there no such thing as a shy trumper, which is what nate slimeball said, now you are a convert to that at least. You were discounting Trafalgar is junk, based on Nate slimeball's smears.

What you ignore that they are all underestimating in the same way, it's not plausible for so many pollsters to be doing that in the same way, unless it is deliberate. Did they not say they had adjusted for their error in 2016? Did they not tell you there was supposedly this huge upsurge in youth voting, which did not materialise. They missed huge and historic shifts in TX and FL among hispanics. FL was quite obvious even to me. I gave you specific examples that are impossible to explain by MOE, and can only be that pollsters were cooking the samples.

BDP does not adjust for shy trumper, but they still get the right result. You can get picky about undecideds, but it shows that there is no reason why these other firms have to be biased towards hiden, unless it's deliberate.

You can assume that a majority of the undecideds in their poll were shy trumpers, where were these guys in other polls? Why can only BPD pick them up? Why cant 90% of pollsters who get such high marks by nate slimeball, get representative samples?

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Interference via manipulating voters with misinformation and fake news (which generally referred to far-right fake news articles about Hillary till Trump took over the meaning) is much different than actually changing vote counts

Biden should win tonight, or early in the morning

Oh yeah? They calling it today or early tomorrow morning now Mr. Wizard?

https://about.bgov.com/news/voting-machine-firms-add-lobbyists-amid-election-hacker-concerns/

"Dominion Voting Systems — which commands more than a third of the voting-machine market without having Washington lobbyists — has hired its first, a high-powered firm that includes a longtime aide to Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

• Two companies dominate the voting machine market
• Pelosi’s ex-chief of staff represents No. 2 manufacturer"

Yeah, nothing to see here. You're either stupid or a paid shill a this point if you think this isn't too big of a coincidence to overlook.

 

[rev0lver]

You can criticise Trafalgar, but that's just stuff that can be expected. Trafalgar acknowledged mistakes and did a way better job this cycle, than 2018.

Previously you were telling me that polling methods showed there no such thing as a shy trumper, which is what nate slimeball said, now you are a convert to that at least. You were discounting Trafalgar is junk, based on Nate slimeball's smears.

What you ignore that they are all underestimating in the same way, it's not plausible for so many pollsters to be doing that in the same way, unless it is deliberate. Did they not say they had adjusted for their error in 2016? Did they not tell you there was supposedly this huge upsurge in youth voting, which did not materialise. They missed huge and historic shifts in TX and FL among hispanics. FL was quite obvious even to me. I gave you specific examples that are impossible to explain by MOE, and can only be that pollsters were cooking the samples.

BDP does not adjust for shy trumper, but they still get the right result. You can get picky about undecideds, but it shows that there is no reason why these other firms have to be biased towards hiden, unless it's deliberate.

You can assume that a majority of the undecideds in their poll were shy trumpers, where were these guys in other polls? Why can only BPD pick them up? Why cant 90% of pollsters who get such high marks by nate slimeball, get representative samples?

Trafalgar's method is junk if they're adding the shy trump factor. And you can tell by seeing how far off they were in some states. They're using a wrong factor that just happens to get the numbers close in certain states.

Other pollsters showing similar, mostly wrong numbers is because they're all using similar methodology, not a conspiracy.

edit: let me make it clear though that pollsters should feel embarrassed. they fucked up. i was wrong to think they fixed their problems from 2016. i just don't think they're in on some grand scheme to make biden look like he was winning.

 

[rev0lver]

Oh yeah? They calling it today or early tomorrow morning now Mr. Wizard?

Possibly tonight. Should be obvious who won to everyone by now. Some places have already called it. But you saw how many conservatives freaked out when Fox called Arizona, so lots of outlets want to wait till Trump has a 0% chance of coming back in the count.

Yeah, nothing to see here. You're either stupid or a paid shill a this point if you think this isn't too big of a coincidence to overlook.

I see we've gotten to the "paid shill" part of the discussion. Love to see it.

Does it bother you at all that virtually all of the claims of fraud/conspiracy (sharpies, poll watchers, late-night ballots that was actually a camera case, etc) have been proven false? Think it should be clear where the real misinformation is coming from by now.

Yes I do think an ex-Pelosi staffer being a contracted lobbyist for a voting systems company is a coincidence. How is that even related to the voting systems themselves lmao. If you want I bet I can find Trump connections to voting machine manufacturers and election officials in the swing states Trump won. I can easily formulate a 5 minute conspiracy theory that Trump stole Florida, true or not.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Possibly tonight. Should be obvious who won to everyone by now. Some places have already called it. But you saw how many conservatives freaked out when Fox called Arizona, so lots of outlets want to wait till Trump has a 0% chance of coming back in the count.



I see we've gotten to the "paid shill" part of the discussion. Love to see it.

Does it bother you at all that virtually all of the claims of fraud/conspiracy (sharpies, poll watchers, late-night ballots that was actually a camera case, etc) have been proven false? Think it should be clear where the real misinformation is coming from by now.

Yes I do think an ex-Pelosi staffer being a contracted lobbyist for a voting systems company is a coincidence. How is that even related to the voting systems themselves lmao. If you want I bet I can find Trump connections to voting machine manufacturers and election officials in the swing states Trump won. I can easily formulate a 5 minute conspiracy theory that Trump stole Florida, true or not.

I literally provided proof of my claims and you offer more conjecture backed by nothing while ignoring obvious conflict of interests. You’re either a brainwashed clown, or you’re over the age of 50, and are incapable of acknowledging you might be wrong. In either case, this is a waste of both our times.

You and true ascension were already terribly wrong about the calling of this election. I’d love to hear your thoughts about this weekends fights so I can fade that too.

This is going to SCOTUS. /thread

 

[Ryan Kelly]

This is going to SCOTUS. /thread

You wanna bet on that? Say a friendly $100 at evens?

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

You wanna bet on that? Say a friendly $100 at evens?

yeah, not at evens though. I get +500 odds which is more than fair.

 

[SBJJ]

Agreed with dems needing to go populist. Dem strategy sucks ass and they deserve to lose house/senate seats with how they operate. But Trump's gonna lose way too much influence over the next few years. And the fallout from his (soon to be former) admin members is gonna be 10x worse than what's already come out from the so-called "disgruntled ex employees". Top republicans are being relatively quiet so they can distance and hop on a new strategy while public opinion keeps going further left on the issues. But it's possible the more extreme sect of Trump's base breaks off into a 3rd party while a sect of dems may do the same.



There's been no actual issue with observers and virtually every count has been livestreamed. Some on the right wing are being held back when they're actually trying to interfere. Some have tried to storm ballot-counting places. Now tonight there was nearly a physical attack on the ballot-counting in Philly. That's very against the law.

By livestream, you mean a camera in the ceiling positioned to not be able to see anything.

Now the dominion ballot software.

This stuff needs to be looked in to. Both parties should want that

 

[SBJJ]

You wanna bet on that? Say a friendly $100 at evens?

It already has.

 

[SBJJ]

I feel the Left did everything to get Fat Orange Man out of office and it really could backfire on them in 22 and 24.

Most people are not comfortable with how this all went down. Some just closed their eyes because Trump is easy to hate.

 

[rev0lver]

By livestream, you mean a camera in the ceiling positioned to not be able to see anything.

Now the dominion ballot software.

This stuff needs to be looked in to. Both parties should want that

There are literally GOP officials overseeing the ballot-counting there that were agreed upon by the parties pre-election. This was confirmed by Trump's own lawyers. The Trump team apparently just wants to swarm the counting places with MAGA dudes for some reason and is trying to stir shit up over nothing.

Among the Dominion hired lobbyists I also found two former George W Bush officials and Pat Toomey's former chief of staff. That took me 5 minutes to find. I guess they also stole Florida and Texas for Trump, right?

 

[rev0lver]

I literally provided proof of my claims and you offer more conjecture backed by nothing while ignoring obvious conflict of interests. You’re either a brainwashed clown, or you’re over the age of 50, and are incapable of acknowledging you might be wrong. In either case, this is a waste of both our times.

You and true ascension were already terribly wrong about the calling of this election. I’d love to hear your thoughts about this weekends fights so I can fade that too.

This is going to SCOTUS. /thread

Well idk about when the elections going to be formally called but we all know it's over. Some places have. The big ones are just afraid of being targeted for making the call before a comeback is literally impossible. Unfortunately yall maga guys won't accept the results and are trying to fruitlessly challenge everything, so it's probably going to take weeks to get all the money I won from correctly betting on the winner. I'll still go sit in the winners circle where people who listened to me probably are, too.

 

[longway]

Trafalgar's method is junk if they're adding the shy trump factor. And you can tell by seeing how far off they were in some states. They're using a wrong factor that just happens to get the numbers close in certain states.

Other pollsters showing similar, mostly wrong numbers is because they're all using similar methodology, not a conspiracy.

edit: let me make it clear though that pollsters should feel embarrassed. they fucked up. i was wrong to think they fixed their problems from 2016. i just don't think they're in on some grand scheme to make biden look like he was winning.

All use the same methodology, but is not a conspiracy

TBH I don't know if the conspiracy is the right word, it's more like being pressured, they know what their client wants and they produce it.

All these pollsters who use this same methodology are hired by liberal organisations and they are not paid to provide info, they are paid to create sell a narrative. I know you will bring up Fox, but Fox is not by any means pro-trump, they are pro GOP establishment, and are pretty much no different to the corporate dims.

You can see clearly that Selzer was pressured to provide a positive poll for Hiden in Iowa, which they chucked out in September at Hiden +7 (or something similar) The same pollster came out with a Trump +7 the following month on 30 Oct. If you check the cross tabs you see that they showed a 28% swing to Trump among Indies to achieve it. Selzer's rep depends on getting Iowa right, so their final poll was real, as they didn't want to tarnish their brand. This just does not happen unless the first poll was deliberately faked.

We have had a decent back and forth on this. If you cant accept it at this stage, well, then you never will.

 

[rev0lver]

We have had a decent back and forth on this. If you cant accept it at this stage, well, then you never will.

I mean at the end of the day you can have your own opinion about it, I just think the conspiracy/fixing/whatever angle is really unlikely. I've worked in data science before in a contentious field of research where I've heard those same accusations, and it didn't represent anything I witnessed personally, otherwise I would've exposed it without hesitation. It'd require a large-scale operation where even one whistleblower would risk the whole system. I don't even think poll-fixing would necessarily help a candidate as I've mentioned before. Overconfidence on Biden would've been a bad thing imo, and as an anti-Trump guy I'm glad the narrative was a lot more cautious this time around.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Well idk about when the elections going to be formally called but we all know it's over. Some places have. The big ones are just afraid of being targeted for making the call before a comeback is literally impossible. Unfortunately yall maga guys won't accept the results and are trying to fruitlessly challenge everything, so it's probably going to take weeks to get all the money I won from correctly betting on the winner. I'll still go sit in the winners circle where people who listened to me probably are, too.

doubles down and provides zero factual evidence to counter my argument..

 

[Ryan Kelly]

It already has.

Im talking about SCOTUS actually granting cert on an issue.

 

[Oblivian]

They called it. I wonder when bets will settle.