Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Youth turnout in EV is already very high, especially in battleground states. It's just hard to tell right now if they're more likely to do EV than older voters, and it's possible their election day numbers could plummet. The 56% number sounds crazy yeah, but I wouldn't make political assumptions on the face value of that. Trump's low approval in spite of that is a problem for him. Gallup put out another poll last week saying 56% of voters believe Trump doesn't deserve to be reelected. 56% of people having a positive personal economic situation doesn't really mean they ascribe that to the president or are happy with our covid situation.

I just think polling on an action is a lot harder to get right than polling on who you're voting for. And there's not much data on that with NC specifically, anyway. Example: I can say I'm planning on ordering pizza tonight. Good chance I'm planning on eating pizza, but I might decide later I don't wanna wait for the delivery and order it for pickup instead, or just cook one from my freezer.

But what makes you think youth turnout is high? Your last post made it seem it was your personal opinion, now you say it is high. I'm not saying you are wrong, bc I dont know, but what is your source?

His approval rating is higher than people's voting intentions in many polls, this is very unusual. 56% may not think he should be re-elected, but is Hiden really someone that is any better?

 

[longway]

I still think it's super weird how Trafalgar doesn't break down their samples by more than ethnicity/gender/age. Also think it's super weird that they're showing 77% of dems voting Biden and 82% of republicans voting Trump. That just seems.... wrong on both counts.

Yeah they've called some elections right that most others got wrong. But they've also been wayyyy off on other elections and have a worse overall track record than most of the majors.

Ah, I didn't see this post. Slimeball is up to some games. Calling them out on Twitter using a googledoc link, implying that this what they sent him, but not really saying one way or another. Trafalgar have said that all their stuff is only on their website.

 

[rev0lver]

But what makes you think youth turnout is high? Your last post made it seem it was your personal opinion, now you say it is high. I'm not saying you are wrong, bc I dont know, but what is your source?

His approval rating is higher than people's voting intentions in many polls, this is very unusual. 56% may not think he should be re-elected, but is Hiden really someone that is any better?

Ah, sorry, here's a couple links:
https://www.teenvogue.com/story/early-youth-voter-turnout-2020-election-data (I know it's Teen Vogue lmao but it has a lot of relevant data)
https://www.kut.org/post/texas-currently-leading-nation-youth-voter-turnout huge young EV numbers in Texas

Ah, I didn't see this post. Slimeball is up to some games. Calling them out on Twitter using a googledoc link, implying that this what they sent him, but not really saying one way or another. Trafalgar have said that all their stuff is only on their website.

I can't see the Google Doc link that Silver posted, but the crosstab screenshot looks like the exact formatting they used for their crosstabs today. Trafalgar's website links to Google Docs for their reports (example from today's PA poll), so I'm not sure what Cahaly is talking about. Reading through his twitter thread, it looks like Cahaly was previously defending the numbers, then deleted&replaced the Google Doc with one without crosstabs, then made this vague claim about fake Trafalgar polls. Sounds a little sketchy to me, and the PA one they released today showed similar weirdness.

 

[longway]

Ah, sorry, here's a couple links:
https://www.teenvogue.com/story/early-youth-voter-turnout-2020-election-data (I know it's Teen Vogue lmao but it has a lot of relevant data)
https://www.kut.org/post/texas-currently-leading-nation-youth-voter-turnout huge young EV numbers in Texas



I can't see the Google Doc link that Silver posted, but the crosstab screenshot looks like the exact formatting they used for their crosstabs today. Trafalgar's website links to Google Docs for their reports (example from today's PA poll), so I'm not sure what Cahaly is talking about. Reading through his twitter thread, it looks like Cahaly was previously defending the numbers, then deleted&replaced the Google Doc with one without crosstabs, then made this vague claim about fake Trafalgar polls. Sounds a little sketchy to me, and the PA one they released today showed similar weirdness.

But Trafalgar never published the link on their website, so why is Silver using it? I think it is their data, but if they have not published it, why call them out on it. Very sketchy.

Yeah, I see what you mean. Have to wait a bit, as it could be front loading. This year VBM is being pushed by DNC and IPEV by GOP, so overall turnout might not be high as fewer will vote on election day. If you look at totals it's still less than 10% of the overall population of 18-29-year-olds, which is around 40+ million, so its nothing particularly high yet.

 

[longway]

Some contraindication of the big youth vote narrative, the numbers you are seeing are just an artefact of this election cycle's push for VBM and IPEV, but as an actual % its lower than 2016.

Also, as a larger number of Trump voters keeping their powder dry till election day, them catching up in early voting in Michigan is not a good sign for Hiden and his Chinese goons.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/r...n-number-of-ballots-returned-experts-stunned/

Particularly worrisome for Democrats is the absence of the youth voters (18-29) as a percentage of total voters. Because voting is up 226% from this time in 2016, raw numbers show the youth vote up. In 2020, as a percentage of the electorate, 18-29 year-olds cast only 9% of the total vote. In 2016, they were 21% of the electorate. This data suggests that young people are not showing up at the same rate during this election cycle.

it looks like their fearmongering and eternal lockdowns have backfired, as shutting down colleges has hindered their GOTV operations for the youth vote.

 

[rev0lver]

But Trafalgar never published the link on their website, so why is Silver using it? I think it is their data, but if they have not published it, why call them out on it. Very sketchy.

I think they did publish it but later took it down to remove the crosstabs. I'd honestly doubt Silver got sent a Google doc by a random dude and didn't find it himself as he normally does. And Cahaly was previously defending the data rather than calling it fake. If Cahaly stands by his data why is he not showing the crosstabs anymore? It's way more sketchy to me that Trafalgar is using data that's almost certainly wrong and doesn't want people to examine it.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/r...n-number-of-ballots-returned-experts-stunned/

I'm really curious about how this data is derived, because neither Michigan nor Wisconsin (the other state they talk about there) register people by party. The same NBC sources are showing dems leading EV in FL, PA, and NC. Something's off there, because it's very unlikely Biden would do worse in MI/WI than any of those 3 states. I'm seeing other sources showing dems likely having a heavy advantage in both states. This is a week old but showing 60% of the ballots returned were from counties that Hillary won. So I wouldn't trust the party breakdown on returns in those states.

 

[longway]

I think they did publish it but later took it down to remove the crosstabs. I'd honestly doubt Silver got sent a Google doc by a random dude and didn't find it himself as he normally does. And Cahaly was previously defending the data rather than calling it fake. If Cahaly stands by his data why is he not showing the crosstabs anymore? It's way more sketchy to me that Trafalgar is using data that's almost certainly wrong and doesn't want people to examine it.



I'm really curious about how this data is derived, because neither Michigan nor Wisconsin (the other state they talk about there) register people by party. The same NBC sources are showing dems leading EV in FL, PA, and NC. Something's off there, because it's very unlikely Biden would do worse in MI/WI than any of those 3 states. I'm seeing other sources showing dems likely having a heavy advantage in both states. This is a week old but showing 60% of the ballots returned were from counties that Hillary won. So I wouldn't trust the party breakdown on returns in those states.

I checked that the poll that slimeball referenced was not on the website, but i could be wrong, but i didnt see it. And the example you gave, he did publish cross tabs.

Just checked, and he has pulled those cross tabs in the presidential polls. I agree that this is not a positive development.

In the link i didnt focus on the lead story, but the youth turnout.

Your points on party id could be fair. You never know these things are slanted. Btw slimeball knew this when called out trafagar x tabs, and it was exactly how trafalgar defended their results.

 

[The Eagle]

Fellas is Biden winning a popular vote pretty much a guarantee? Trying to see if it's worth taking it at -550 to make a hundo.

 

[longway]

Fellas is Biden winning a popular vote pretty much a guarantee? Trying to see if it's worth taking it at -550 to make a hundo.

Imo they will vote pad in cal and ny to ensure they will avoid that humiliation, dead people are the most reliable dnc voting demographic.

Hiden took the lid off to mumble incoherent crap in chester pa yesterday, they are losing pa and they know it. The mostly peaceful rioting and looting will not help either.

Trump has pulled ads in fl to concentrate on mn, as fl is in the bag.

 

[Roads55]

Imo they will vote pad in cal and ny to ensure they will avoid that humiliation, dead people are the most reliable dnc voting demographic.

Hiden took the lid off to mumble incoherent crap in chester pa yesterday, they are losing pa and they know it. The mostly peaceful rioting and looting will not help either.

Trump has pulled ads in fl to concentrate on mn, as fl is in the bag.

I don't think the adds were pulled. I can post source later but bedtime now.

 

[longway]

I don't think the adds were pulled. I can post source later but bedtime now.

Ok, it was fake news. It turned up on my twitter feed.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/bloom...g-that-trump-campaign-pulled-ads-from-florida

Fake news thought it was bad news for the trump campaign so they ran with it without the tiniest bit of fact checking. Typical.

 

[Joedaman55]

Nate Slimeball has resorted to publishing non-official cross tabs of their polls he obtained from googledocs somehow to smear them. He should have at least contacted them to find out what's up, but he didn't. He has not even acknowledged he was using an unofficial source. He has now dropped them iiuc. Very underhanded behaviour.





He calls all the non-conforming polls 'biased' to GOP, and that they dont know what they are doing. As if he is not biased.




He even says if Trump wins, its a possibility that he 'stole' the election.



He is not a good-faith actor.

Saw he was calling them out but that’s fine. He needs to get his brand back by picking accurately as he was so far off last time. I don’t put much weight in his words to accurately predict things.

 

[Joedaman55]

I still think it's super weird how Trafalgar doesn't break down their samples by more than ethnicity/gender/age. Also think it's super weird that they're showing 77% of dems voting Biden and 82% of republicans voting Trump. That just seems.... wrong on both counts.

Yeah they've called some elections right that most others got wrong. But they've also been wayyyy off on other elections and have a worse overall track record than most of the majors.

Yep, depends on how you’re looking at them but for this election, the two polls I’m really paying attention to are them and Rasmussen as those are the two most accurate last time.

 

[Joedaman55]

Fellas is Biden winning a popular vote pretty much a guarantee? Trying to see if it's worth taking it at -550 to make a hundo.

Hillary won by 2.1% last election, I think Biden is going to do worse than her in the Popular vote. Based on the Rasmussen poll, I’m putting the Popular vote at 50/50 odds when I previously had it at like -200 for Biden. I’d bet the other side if I were you.

 

[Roads55]

Ok, it was fake news. It turned up on my twitter feed.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/bloom...g-that-trump-campaign-pulled-ads-from-florida

Fake news thought it was bad news for the trump campaign so they ran with it without the tiniest bit of fact checking. Typical.

seems like the RNC is just handling it rather than trump's campaign basically the same thing.

 

[rev0lver]

Yep, depends on how you’re looking at them but for this election, the two polls I’m really paying attention to are them and Rasmussen as those are the two most accurate last time.

Again, they're not though. Trafalgar was right on a couple states, very wrong on others, overall does worse than most. Rasmussen had the popular vote margin correct in 2016, and somehow uses that as their claim to fame, despite not being closest on the actual vote share (Fox News' polling won there). Rasmussen was among the least accurate in the 2018 midterms, too.

Trafalgar showed some crazy crosstabs today on their Wisconsin poll. The party stats are mind-boggling. Even if we took those numbers as accurate, it would imply they're weighing R's more on the final numbers. And Trump with an 11 pt lead among 18-24? Lmao that's not gonna happen. This leaves me with more questions than answers with what weird fucking methodology they're using. It's pretty telling that they still don't show party affiliation stats as a % of the sample size. At least they're transparently showing they're representing Milwaukee lower than all other districts.

 

[rev0lver]

Fellas is Biden winning a popular vote pretty much a guarantee? Trying to see if it's worth taking it at -550 to make a hundo.

Probably, but if I were to pick a better value lock in this election it'd be Biden winning Nevada (currently -350). Hillary won in 2016 and Biden seems to be polling better there than she did 4 years ago. There's no indication Nevada's gotten more red, and they voted out a Republican senator in 2018 by a 5 point margin. Most of the western states appear to be getting more blue.

 

[The Eagle]

Probably, but if I were to pick a better value lock in this election it'd be Biden winning Nevada (currently -350). Hillary won in 2016 and Biden seems to be polling better there than she did 4 years ago. There's no indication Nevada's gotten more red, and they voted out a Republican senator in 2018 by a 5 point margin. Most of the western states appear to be getting more blue.

What you think about Democratic candidate to win Michigan -300 and Minnesota -310?

 

[longway]

Again, they're not though. Trafalgar was right on a couple states, very wrong on others, overall does worse than most. Rasmussen had the popular vote margin correct in 2016, and somehow uses that as their claim to fame, despite not being closest on the actual vote share (Fox News' polling won there). Rasmussen was among the least accurate in the 2018 midterms, too.

Trafalgar showed some crazy crosstabs today on their Wisconsin poll. The party stats are mind-boggling. Even if we took those numbers as accurate, it would imply they're weighing R's more on the final numbers. And Trump with an 11 pt lead among 18-24? Lmao that's not gonna happen. This leaves me with more questions than answers with what weird fucking methodology they're using. It's pretty telling that they still don't show party affiliation stats as a % of the sample size. At least they're transparently showing they're representing Milwaukee lower than all other districts.

ABC publishes wisconsin +17. The polling is insane this cycle. So much if it contradicts each other. There is a lot of dodgy polling going on. Trafalgar have Biden +3 in Minnesotta. In general, their polling doesn't look as crazy as Slimeball makes them out to be.

Slimeball is not a data guy, he is a narrative guy.

 

[rev0lver]

ABC publishes wisconsin +17. The polling is insane this cycle. So much if it contradicts each other. There is a lot of dodgy polling going on. Trafalgar have Biden +3 in Minnesotta. In general, their polling doesn't look as crazy as Slimeball makes them out to be.

Slimeball is not a data guy, he is a narrative guy.

Yeah, I don't think Biden's gonna win Wisconsin by 17 points lol. But I genuinely do trust Silver's data analysis more than most others. He does clearly have a political leaning, but he's honest about the probabilities and talks about Trump's realistic paths to victory. Can't act like Rasmussen/Trafalgar don't have an agenda either when they're both very combative/defensive about their work and tweet or publish a lot of pro-R info. Silver gives low ratings to or bans pollsters who lack transparency in methodology (or use unacceptable methodologies) and display sharp agendas, and he does the same whether they're on the right or left.

Trafalgar's polling results might look reasonable with respect to what we saw in 2016, but how will that look if Biden wins MN/WI by a large amount?