Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

Looking at the more left-leaning outlets I follow, they seem to think Biden had one of his best performances to date and Trump fell completely flat. I didn't really see that. Trying to be objective as possible, I'd give it a slight Biden edge or a draw. Either case is a win for Biden at this point. And all the polls I've seen say Biden won by at least 10 points.

The laptop from hell and his fracking gaffe is going to hurt his turnout at minimum, its likely cost him PA.

I think you guys are seriously overestimating the number of oil/fracking jobs in PA and how much this would even hurt him with them lol. With the laptop/Ukraine/Russia/China/whatever stuff, I think this Vox article made a good point about that. Trump threw out a lot of things that would cause his base to cheer, but people who aren't following this stuff don't really know what he's talking about. Biden threw enough back about Trump making money in China that if low-info voters had a takeaway on that, it'd just be a 50/50 or they're both corrupt.

 

[Joedaman55]

IMO it would have needed to be something so utterly severe that the media couldn't possibly spin it. If Joe collapsed on stage, nothing they can do to pretend everything is fine.

With what happened, that's not even close to the case. The left leaning places like CNN are saying Biden clearly won the debate. Not surprising (and wrong imo) but he did just enough to at least allow them to spin that narrative. And that's all that was needed.

I get your point and I think the media is trying to convince people it’s not that bad, I see it way differently and I believe people in battleground states will see it that way to based on what I know about influencing people and what I’ve seen from Luntz’s group who I don’t believe were on either side prior to the debate.

Lol the media is good at this and they got people so confident on election night in 2016 that Trump was trading at 5:1 when I couldn’t understand how he wasn’t the large favorite. I don’t see much that has changed from 2016 to 2020 except that the Democrats are running a much weaker candidate and Trump had an incredible first term prior to COVID.

 

[Joedaman55]

Luntz's focus groups are always more right-leaning, and his own takeaway from them was that it was a virtual tie.

Simple fact is that undecided voters are some of the dumbest, most superficial people in the country. I felt CNN's focus group actually gave me some good insight into that. The constant Biden messages of unity resonates more with them than anything about actual policy. Trump didn't really give anyone anything to latch on to, beside presenting an acceptable demeanor.

His takeaway was certainly not a tie, every person in that group except two shifted to voting for Trump. It’s online, you can watch it.

Luntz’s groups are certainly not right leaning, they seem to be the most objective ones I’ve seen.

I think most voters are incredible smart but don’t care about the agendas the media push. If you think most voters are stupid, our opinions will differ by a large amount.

lol if you believe any focus group by CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, or any national news organization is non-biased, our opinions are going to differ by a large amount. Each one of those organizations are pushing a political agenda and are likely cherry picking voters to push their agenda or asking questions that shift those voters the way they want them to vote.

 

[rev0lver]

His takeaway was certainly not a tie, every person in that group except two shifted to voting for Trump. It’s online, you can watch it.

Luntz’s groups are certainly not right leaning, they seem to be the most objective ones I’ve seen.

I think most voters are incredible smart but don’t care about the agendas the media push. If you think most voters are stupid, our opinions will differ by a large amount.

lol if you believe any focus group by CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, or any national news organization is non-biased, our opinions are going to differ by a large amount. Each one of those organizations are pushing a political agenda and are likely cherry picking voters to push their agenda or asking questions that shift those voters the way they want them to vote.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-final-debate-a-tie-that-bodes-well-for-biden he literally called it a tie. He's been long-known as a right-leaning pollster whose groups tend to shift that way.

I didn't say most voters are stupid (I mean, they might be lol, idk). I was referring to still-undecided voters who somehow have not made their mind up about Trump/Biden by this point. They can get swayed by the dumbest of things.

I usually don't watch MSM analysis on these things, I just caught the CNN video out of curiosity. The focus group's opinions seemed pretty interesting, and they seemed pretty genuine. Even had one guy who said he'd vote Biden if ACB gets confirmed on the supreme court because she's pro-life, but would vote Trump if not. A handful were still leaning to Trump but thought the debate was a draw.

 

[Joedaman55]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-final-debate-a-tie-that-bodes-well-for-biden he literally called it a tie. He's been long-known as a right-leaning pollster whose groups tend to shift that way.

I didn't say most voters are stupid (I mean, they might be lol, idk). I was referring to still-undecided voters who somehow have not made their mind up about Trump/Biden by this point. They can get swayed by the dumbest of things.

I usually don't watch MSM analysis on these things, I just caught the CNN video out of curiosity. The focus group's opinions seemed pretty interesting, and they seemed pretty genuine. Even had one guy who said he'd vote Biden if ACB gets confirmed on the supreme court because she's pro-life, but would vote Trump if not. A handful were still leaning to Trump but thought the debate was a draw.

Undecided voters aren’t as anchored and are swayed to whomever is the better salesman. If you are assessing those voters, I’d assess them based on that. It is way easier to sell someone an idea or item when they’re not anchored.

 

[loller90278]

i think trump won that debate but the lines haven't shifted at all

 

[bruthead]

On Betfair in the UK money has gone in on Biden since the debate. If Trump won he didn't win enough.

 

[longway]

On Betfair in the UK money has gone in on Biden since the debate. If Trump won he didn't win enough.

This is what I have been waiting for, the big hitters have now come out to drive the Hiden line down. I guess the last debate was the final hurdle they were waiting on. Still a huge gap between his chances of victory estimated by polling and his betting line.

During the debate, however, most of the bets were on Trump.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-win-election-debate-joe-biden-bets-bookmaker-1541647

Oddschecker, which compares odds offered by dozens of bookmakers, said the president had received "heavy backing" while the two men were on stage.

The president attracted wagers from 73 percent of those placing bets during Thursday's second and final head-to-head in Nashville, Tennessee.

Interesting divergence. To me, it's a better indicator that Trump crushed it.

 

[TrueAscension]

Undecided voters aren’t as anchored and are swayed to whomever is the better salesman. If you are assessing those voters, I’d assess them based on that. It is way easier to sell someone an idea or item when they’re not anchored.

do you really think people are undecided anymore with this much division in the country?

 

[longway]

Looking at the more left-leaning outlets I follow, they seem to think Biden had one of his best performances to date and Trump fell completely flat. I didn't really see that. Trying to be objective as possible, I'd give it a slight Biden edge or a draw. Either case is a win for Biden at this point. And all the polls I've seen say Biden won by at least 10 points.



I think you guys are seriously overestimating the number of oil/fracking jobs in PA and how much this would even hurt him with them lol. With the laptop/Ukraine/Russia/China/whatever stuff, I think this Vox article made a good point about that. Trump threw out a lot of things that would cause his base to cheer, but people who aren't following this stuff don't really know what he's talking about. Biden threw enough back about Trump making money in China that if low-info voters had a takeaway on that, it'd just be a 50/50 or they're both corrupt.

This is what I was telling you about previously re his rallies.

Yeah, you got to take it with a pinch of salt, considering the source, but driving turnout is what it is all about. There are plenty of votes to be gained, these are what the rallies are about. These guys who have never voted before will vote. This is why he won last time, and why he can win again.

 

[Roads55]

This is what I have been waiting for, the big hitters have now come out to drive the Hiden line down. I guess the last debate was the final hurdle they were waiting on. Still a huge gap between his chances of victory estimated by polling and his betting line.

During the debate, however, most of the bets were on Trump.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-win-election-debate-joe-biden-bets-bookmaker-1541647



Interesting divergence. To me, it's a better indicator that Trump crushed it.

I Don't necessarily think it's because he crushed it, but more so because it wasn't a repeat performance of last time which made some people jump the gun on how influential it really was for the election. biden got bet back down after but he's still not at his lowest price yet. I'm waiting to see if there's another leg down for him to 1.35-1.4 ish before i hedge bigger. if not i'll probably begin to reduce my biden position in the next couple days.

 

[Joedaman55]

do you really think people are undecided anymore with this much division in the country?

Yes, I think about 15% of voters will makeup their mind right before they vote.

 

[rev0lver]

This is what I was telling you about previously re his rallies.

Yeah, you got to take it with a pinch of salt, considering the source, but driving turnout is what it is all about. There are plenty of votes to be gained, these are what the rallies are about. These guys who have never voted before will vote. This is why he won last time, and why he can win again.

This is more of a personal theory, but I think the turnout for Biden is going to be even bigger than expected. Not because of pro-Biden enthusiasm, but I genuinely think people are taking this election more seriously than the last one. Apparently there's already been massive youth turnout in early voting and it's blown 2016 out of the water. 2016 had a lot of apathy because everyone assumed Hillary would win, and now people realize they have to actually vote for the dem if they don't want Trump to win.

FWIW though those look like rally signups, not registrations. Doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote if they have a history of not doing that.

 

[longway]

This is more of a personal theory, but I think the turnout for Biden is going to be even bigger than expected. Not because of pro-Biden enthusiasm, but I genuinely think people are taking this election more seriously than the last one. Apparently there's already been massive youth turnout in early voting and it's blown 2016 out of the water. 2016 had a lot of apathy because everyone assumed Hillary would win, and now people realize they have to actually vote for the dem if they don't want Trump to win.

FWIW though those look like rally signups, not registrations. Doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote if they have a history of not doing that.

It was just to illustrate what i was saying earlier. its one of the goals of his rallies. Its why he won in 2016, he got people to turn out.

At the time i just could not provide a source, this is not a personal theory, but a stated objective by trump campaign.

I would like to see why you think youth vote is ath. They didnt turn out for bernie, why would they turn out for hiden? Trump hatred? Enthusiasm for bernie was sky high, there is none for hiden.

If you are counting in on new voters to carry hiden over the line, who will turn up on their own, then its wishful thinking imo.

Anyway, if you are a numbers guy you might be interested in this page. The site is biased, but the numbers it uses are real.

It says, based on best case projections of dem vbm, they are underperforming in terms of getting getting votes, in nc at least.

https://joeisdone.github.io/

You have to scroll down a bit to 'joes yuge strategic mistake' for the methodology and results.

I think his assumption on how ind break for rep and dnc is the weakest part, but even given that, there is no sign of this magic high turnout for dnc.

 

[Joedaman55]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/

Pretty insane things have shifted in this poll that much over a few weeks. This group is one of the polls I pay attention to due to their accuracy and Biden was up pretty big in their polls a couple weeks ago. Could be an anomaly but it’s more likely things have shifted since the debate.

 

[rev0lver]

I would like to see why you think youth vote is ath. They didnt turn out for bernie, why would they turn out for hiden? Trump hatred? Enthusiasm for bernie was sky high, there is none for hiden.

Yeah, I was surprised that the youth turnout was not higher in the primary. But I think the enthusiasm in primaries is just lower all around than a general election. And "get out to vote" (or I guess "stay in and vote by mail") efforts are much bigger for this than a primary when its an entire party's resources vs individual candidates. Idk, I think there can be a lot of factors. But to the last point, I do think Trump hatred among young people is bigger than their love for Bernie.

Anyway, if you are a numbers guy you might be interested in this page. The site is biased, but the numbers it uses are real.

It says, based on best case projections of dem vbm, they are underperforming in terms of getting getting votes, in nc at least.

https://joeisdone.github.io/

You have to scroll down a bit to 'joes yuge strategic mistake' for the methodology and results.

I think his assumption on how ind break for rep and dnc is the weakest part, but even given that, there is no sign of this magic high turnout for dnc.

I'm finding a lot of problems with the assumptions this is making about the data. They're applying a national VBM survey from August to NC statistics to say Biden's severely underperforming. There's 3 big problems with this:

1. They're assuming 50% of dems in NC plan to do VBM based on a national survey. Elsewhere, they quote a Trump campaign official as saying 42% of NC dems plan to do VBM (with no basis I can find for that). NC has been a lot more lenient with covid restrictions and there may not be as big of an in-person concern there.

2. They're very focused on registered dems which may not tell the full story with the growing number of independents (as well as R's voting for Biden or vice versa). Polling accounts for this better.

3. Even an underperformance in VBM by dems doesn't mean they won't vote. This is sort of an unprecedented situation right now and we don't know how to model it properly. There could be a large number of people who thought about voting by mail, but just never bothered to request a ballot, and will vote IP early or on election day. I'd bet the statistics play out more clearly in states where ballots are mailed automatically.

 

[longway]

Yeah, I was surprised that the youth turnout was not higher in the primary. But I think the enthusiasm in primaries is just lower all around than a general election. And "get out to vote" (or I guess "stay in and vote by mail") efforts are much bigger for this than a primary when its an entire party's resources vs individual candidates. Idk, I think there can be a lot of factors. But to the last point, I do think Trump hatred among young people is bigger than their love for Bernie.



I'm finding a lot of problems with the assumptions this is making about the data. They're applying a national VBM survey from August to NC statistics to say Biden's severely underperforming. There's 3 big problems with this:

1. They're assuming 50% of dems in NC plan to do VBM based on a national survey. Elsewhere, they quote a Trump campaign official as saying 42% of NC dems plan to do VBM (with no basis I can find for that). NC has been a lot more lenient with covid restrictions and there may not be as big of an in-person concern there.

2. They're very focused on registered dems which may not tell the full story with the growing number of independents (as well as R's voting for Biden or vice versa). Polling accounts for this better.

3. Even an underperformance in VBM by dems doesn't mean they won't vote. This is sort of an unprecedented situation right now and we don't know how to model it properly. There could be a large number of people who thought about voting by mail, but just never bothered to request a ballot, and will vote IP early or on election day. I'd bet the statistics play out more clearly in states where ballots are mailed automatically.

I would disagree with your first point, I think youth turnout will be very low, there is nothing inspiring about Hiden, and that level of hatred for Trump is mostly confined to a vocal minority, a lot will disapprove of him but hate him, not really. Gallup poll showed that 56% think they are better off than 4 years ago, the highest ever, and thats during this crazy panicdemic.

Yeah. I think the model has problems, but it's not what you would want to see if you are expecting to sweep NC as the polls suggest. VBM is the dem voter preferred mode due to the fearmongering by the DNC over COVID, its the opposite for Trump voters.

 

[rev0lver]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/

Pretty insane things have shifted in this poll that much over a few weeks. This group is one of the polls I pay attention to due to their accuracy and Biden was up pretty big in their polls a couple weeks ago. Could be an anomaly but it’s more likely things have shifted since the debate.

I still think it's super weird how Trafalgar doesn't break down their samples by more than ethnicity/gender/age. Also think it's super weird that they're showing 77% of dems voting Biden and 82% of republicans voting Trump. That just seems.... wrong on both counts.

Yeah they've called some elections right that most others got wrong. But they've also been wayyyy off on other elections and have a worse overall track record than most of the majors.

 

[rev0lver]

I would disagree with your first point, I think youth turnout will be very low, there is nothing inspiring about Hiden, and that level of hatred for Trump is mostly confined to a vocal minority, a lot will disapprove of him but hate him, not really. Gallup poll showed that 56% think they are better off than 4 years ago, the highest ever, and thats during this crazy panicdemic.

Yeah. I think the model has problems, but it's not what you would want to see if you are expecting to sweep NC as the polls suggest. VBM is the dem voter preferred mode due to the fearmongering by the DNC over COVID, its the opposite for Trump voters.

Youth turnout in EV is already very high, especially in battleground states. It's just hard to tell right now if they're more likely to do EV than older voters, and it's possible their election day numbers could plummet. The 56% number sounds crazy yeah, but I wouldn't make political assumptions on the face value of that. Trump's low approval in spite of that is a problem for him. Gallup put out another poll last week saying 56% of voters believe Trump doesn't deserve to be reelected. 56% of people having a positive personal economic situation doesn't really mean they ascribe that to the president or are happy with our covid situation.

I just think polling on an action is a lot harder to get right than polling on who you're voting for. And there's not much data on that with NC specifically, anyway. Example: I can say I'm planning on ordering pizza tonight. Good chance I'm planning on eating pizza, but I might decide later I don't wanna wait for the delivery and order it for pickup instead, or just cook one from my freezer.

 

[longway]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/

Pretty insane things have shifted in this poll that much over a few weeks. This group is one of the polls I pay attention to due to their accuracy and Biden was up pretty big in their polls a couple of weeks ago. Could be an anomaly but it’s more likely things have shifted since the debate.

Nate Slimeball has resorted to publishing non-official cross tabs of their polls he obtained from googledocs somehow to smear them. He should have at least contacted them to find out what's up, but he didn't. He has not even acknowledged he was using an unofficial source. He has now dropped them iiuc. Very underhanded behaviour.





He calls all the non-conforming polls 'biased' to GOP, and that they dont know what they are doing. As if he is not biased.




He even says if Trump wins, its a possibility that he 'stole' the election.



He is not a good-faith actor.