Political Betting Thread

[mkess101]

I guess that's better than getting your impressions from Fake News, but it's still quite silly. Twitter posts are meant to promote oneself and rally supporters. Nothing more.

It's not meant to be serious policy discussion and/or a look into a man's soul/mind.

Anywho, this election is pretty fucking simple. On the one hand, you have Democrats, who support mass riots and looting, criminality in general, are in favor of destroying America's heroes and history, terrorizing ordinary citizens in big cities and suburbs alike, institute mass internment for everyone except those involved in said destruction, and hate "whiteness" with the fury of a thousand suns.

It's a basic Marxist approach to taking power in a country. I'm not hating; I immigrated from the Soviet Union, and we've seen this same song and dance dozens of times throughout the world since 1917. Of course, here it's more cultural/racial rather than economic, which is a clever adaptation, but nonetheless.

IF you're someone that hates America and present society, and thinks you will be part of the intellgentsia in the new order, then by all means, vote Biden. I don't type that with any sarcsasm, either.

If, however, you like the US and think present society is nicer than the socialist hellhole that revolution will inevitably plunge the country into, vote Trump.

Not that one's vote will likely matter, especially with the Democrats trying to rig the elections with fraud by mail.

I think that's quite a bit dramatic, though some of the sentiment I agree with (at least partially).

The only thing I can say about Trump is that not one time, ever, have I viewed from him anything resembling humility or even serious contemplation of serious matters. He's a boorish, reactionary charicature of a person who simply doesn't seem to believe he's capable of being wrong or making a mistake.

No, I do not now or have I ever thought that the Democrats will move us in the right direction. There is no good (or even palatable) choice in this election imo.

 

[TrueAscension]

I think Trump has done a lot of good stuff for America but I also think he’s just a dickhead

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I think that's quite a bit dramatic,

I can understand someone typing that in 2005. Or even 2015. But in 2020? When the Democrats are openly supporting mass riots, criminality, and the whole-sale destruction of the country, and Democrat (and Soros-funded judges) don't even charge with them with any crime, or even when they do, in California and New York don't require any bail for them to get out of jail, AND Democrats openly talk and brag about their intentions to completely transform the country, you're essentially sticking your head in the sand here.

Even a lot of traditional Democrats and liberals are figuring this out now, which explains the record-breaking gun sales in this country.

 

[longway]

I read his Twitter posts. That's literally where I come to my conclusions. Not from anyone else's views or op eds about him, etc. He projects himself to be nearly infallible and if you disagree I don't know what to tell you.

I think NOT viewing him this way is utterly delusional and ridiculous. So...we agree to disagree. I don't have a direct line into his mind so I don't unequivocally KNOW how he views himself but from what I've seen it's what he projects. And again, some of his actual policy decisions have been beneficial imo, I don't think every aspect of his presidency has been a disaster.

Believe me I'm not trying to change yours or anyone else's mind about the guy. Believe whatever you want. We are all free to disagree, nothing wrong with that.

I read his twitter posts as well, at no point did i get the impression he thinks he is infallible. He does boast alot, but he has to promote himself, the legacy media is implacably against him and will not report positively on him. Twitter allows him to by bypass them and broadcast directly with the public.

 

[mkess101]

I can understand someone typing that in 2005. Or even 2015. But in 2020? When the Democrats are openly supporting mass riots, criminality, and the whole-sale destruction of the country, and Democrat (and Soros-funded judges) don't even charge with them with any crime, or even when they do, in California and New York don't require any bail for them to get out of jail, AND Democrats openly talk and brag about their intentions to completely transform the country, you're essentially sticking your head in the sand here.

Even a lot of traditional Democrats and liberals are figuring this out now, which explains the record-breaking gun sales in this country.

Maybe I'll be proven wrong but I don't see a Biden win as the start of the end of days.

I agree about the stuff about crime going unpunished, etc. That's not really new though.

 

[julmma]

Wow! I just find out about this thread


All I’m saying is that I’m actually living on a communist LatinAmerican country. The left is trying to make what they call “Patria Grande” it’s LatinAmerica as a whole, with dictators as Maduro, the Kirchners and Castro‘s people as their leaders.

WE ARE COMPLETELY F*CKED UP!


Now that same radical left is trying to make a coupe d’ state in America. God and Trump helps you guys....






Same goes from Spain and Podemos...

 

[mkess101]

I read his twitter posts as well, at no point did i get the impression he thinks he is infallible. He does boast alot, but he has to promote himself, the legacy media is implacably against him and will not report positively on him. Twitter allows him to by bypass them and broadcast directly with the public.

The media being unfair to him may be true, but the guy doesn't just boast a lot. He absolutely never shows a hint of contrition, he blames anyone and everyone else if something goes wrong (when he actually acknowledges something went wrong), etc.

We aren't gonna change each other's minds about him obviously. And that's okay. I certainly don't think Biden is a good answer either.

 

[longway]

Still not a trend, but I think I finally got the timing right on building a position on Trump.





I think Biden has peaked and choosing a cackling idiot with no morals as VP, when he himself is seen as incompetent and unlikely to finish his first term will not help his chances at all.

 

[longway]

This little gem from a softball interview with Colbert has been getting some traction. Watch her lose her shit from a simple question that she must have known was coming. We all know she has no morals and says anything that will get her ahead, but the trick is to not admit it. Harris has a brain freeze and exposes herself and tries the cackle her way through it. No ability to think on her feet at all. She is a disaster.

You can skip to 1:50

 

[Joedaman55]

I don't think issues like UBI are quite there yet for a majority. But I'm talking about things like MFA that they do have majority support with. Registered independents are much more aligned with the left than the right, issue-wise. Not many people are straight up in-between.

Polling was not very off in Florida. They were nearly tied in Florida polling leading up to election day. Polling with Gary Johnson in the mix even had Trump leading by a couple points. And he won by 1.2 points. Biden's doing much better there (at least right now) than Hillary was on election day.

I was not shocked in 2016, I predicted Trump to win. I pretty much modeled most of the states where Trump was polling within the margin of error to be victories for Trump. I saw it as an enthusiasm issue, where most people hated Trump but didn't think he'd win, and no one really cared much for Hillary, so a good chunk of them stayed home or voted third party. I can't prove this of course, but I strongly believe if they held a rematch a day later, Hillary would've won. This time around, I think everyone takes the threat of him winning more seriously, and the anti-Trump enthusiasm being much bigger than the pro-Trump enthusiasm will prevent him from getting the bump he needs.

Polls tightened toward the end and I honestly believe it’s poll manipulation by cherry picking responders. I think the media does this initially to influence voters as people prefer to choose the winning over the losing side. I agree that you’ll see the polls tighten toward Election Day.

Nice, if you’re model works go for it, nothing wrong with that. If it’s based on polls, I’d hold off betting until they tighten for the reasons above.

 

[longway]

Polls tightened toward the end and I honestly believe it’s poll manipulation by cherry picking responders. I think the media does this initially to influence voters as people prefer to choose the winning over the losing side. I agree that you’ll see the polls tighten toward Election Day.

Nice, if you’re model works go for it, nothing wrong with that. If it’s based on polls, I’d hold off betting until they tighten for the reasons above.

They definitely manipulate imo, then final polls are real so as to maintain their records.

 

[Joedaman55]

I’m an upper middle class, second generation Ecuadorian man. My family stood in line and came here legally. Fuck all illegal immigrants period.

most of my family is libertarian or republican. We support people living their lives doing whatever they want (gay marriage) and even though we know it’s murder, we’re fine letting the states decide their abortion laws.

It’s honestly hilarious hearing grown men claim Trumps presidency is a disaster. Please explain.

Lowest black unemployment in US history.

Best economy in years.
President Trump signed the 2018 Farm Bill which legalized the Production of industrial Hemp.

Brought back more manufacturing jobs than the last 2 presidents combined.

Has avoided starting any new wars in the Middle East, unlike Obama and Bush.

“
Under President Trump’s leadership, Congress passed historic tax cuts and relief for hard-working Americans. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act:

• Is the first major tax reform signed in 30 years.
  
  
• Provided tax relief for 82% of middle-class families.
  
  
• Doubled the Child Tax Credit proving an additional $1,000 per child in tax relief for working parents.
  
  
• Nearly doubled the standard deduction, a change that simplified the tax filing process for millions of Americans.
  
  
• Cut taxes for small business by 20%, providing $415 billion in tax relief for small business owners.
  
  
• Alleviated the tax burden on over 500 companies. who used those savings to fund bonuses, wage increases for 4.8 million workers.
  
  
• Spurred new investments into the American economy, after it was passed businesses invested $482 billion into new American projects.
  
  
• Repealed Obamacare’s burdensome individual mandate.
  
  
• Made U.S. companies competitive on the world stage, lowering the corporate tax rate from one of the highest in the industrialized world (35%) to 21%.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has soared under President Trump, topping 3% in 4 quarters under his administration.

• 2018 annual GDP growth was 2.9%
  
  
• In the first quarter of 2019 GDP growth was 3.1%

President Trump is unleashing economic growth and jobs. Since his election, the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies have generated 6 million new jobs, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest point in 50 years, and wages have grown at more than 3% for 10 months in a row.

• The manufacturing industry created nearly half a million new jobs.
  
  
• 625,000 new construction jobs have been created since President Trump took office.
  
  
• Hispanic, Asian and African American unemployment rates have all reached record lows under President Trump.
  
  
• There are more than a million more job openings than unemployed persons in the U.S.

President Trump signed an executive order that expanded federally funded apprenticeship programs and on-the-job training, to provide an alternative for those looking to gain in demand skills that lack the resources to attend four year universities.

• The executive order set in motion a new process that makes it easier for businesses to create and scale apprenticeship programs, providing many more Americans access to an affordable education that leads to a well-paying job.
  
  
• The Workforce Development Advisory Council established by President Trump’s executive order has already created on-the-job training opportunities for 6.5 million Americans.

The Trump administration prioritized the economic empowerment of women at home and across the globe.

• The Trump Administration launched the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity (W-GDP) Initiative, the first-ever whole-of-government approach focused on advancing women’s full and free participation in the global economy and allocated $50 million for the fund.

President Trump rescinded President Obama’s costly Clean Power Plan and instead has proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Rule.

• According to NERA Economic Consulting, the CPP would have increased electricity rates by as much as 14 percent, costing American households up to $79 billion.
  
  
• The Affordable Clean Energy Rule will reduce greenhouse gasses, empower states, promote energy independence, and facilitate economic growth and job creation

In addition to the Clean Power Plan, the Trump administration has rescinded many costly Obama-Era regulations.

• The EPA has rescinded President Obama’s methane emissions rule that would cost American energy developers an estimated $530 million annually.
  
  
• The EPA is reviewing a rule that if rescinded would relax costly fuel standards and save $340 billion in regulatory costs.

I mean Christ, do you even do your own research or do you just regurgitate CNN headline?

Yeah, I mean Trump has pretty much done everything he said he was going to do In his administration within his first term. Before COVID hit, I was talking to people and we weren’t sure who had a better first term in the history of the United States. There’s no wars, the economy as a whole improved from a state of an already strong economy (2008 recession recovered by 2015), and there wasn’t any new policies that really messed things up.

The problem is like you said, the two sides are just so far apart on how the United States should be run. The left want a more socialized economy with “free” education and medical that will come at the tax payers expense. The right want a more capitalistic approach with more free markets on everything but abortion. The politics are very similar to the Civil War times we’re viewpoints of the world were this split and this far apart.

 

[Joedaman55]

They definitely manipulate imo, then final polls are real so as to maintain their records.

Yes, so if you believe this then the polls aren’t accurate at the moment. This misinformation will create an asset bubble as things aren’t measured correctly. This is why I contend the 2016 election wasn’t a massive upset but rather an asset bubble where people misvalued things so poorly based on how pissed Trump gets people and misinformation through polls.

 

[rev0lver]

Polls tightened toward the end and I honestly believe it’s poll manipulation by cherry picking responders. I think the media does this initially to influence voters as people prefer to choose the winning over the losing side. I agree that you’ll see the polls tighten toward Election Day.

Nice, if you’re model works go for it, nothing wrong with that. If it’s based on polls, I’d hold off betting until they tighten for the reasons above.

They definitely manipulate imo, then final polls are real so as to maintain their records.

I can't tell you how much fake/manipulated polls would be a terrible political strategy. Which is why it isn't a real thing, at least not among established pollsters. Purposefully misrepresenting where your candidate stands would screw with your campaign's strategy (example: Hillary not campaigning in Michigan due to a polling lead), and I haven't seen any evidence that showing a false lead would improve election results. Actual manipulation would be a massive scandal and the pollsters involved would be immediately blacklisted from doing any work in that field, and it would be a pointless endeavor. There are pollsters who have different sampling methodologies, but this is simply based on different theories of political representation, and pollsters are constantly working to improve their accuracy on that.

Trump has stated multiple times that he has internal numbers that put him ahead. But none of this data is ever released, probably because it either A. doesn't exist, or B. has laughable methodology issues. Even the less-credible pollsters that oversample republicans can't manage to show Trump winning.

 

[longway]

NY's response gave them one of the best trendlines in the country from their initial outbreak. That looks like a success. You think they should open up and just find out if thousands more people die? It's pretty clear why Cuomo and co are double digits ahead of Trump in approval.

Just noticed this. I didn't realise you were going to bring this up again. As I said you can't stop people catching covid, the only way to save lives is to ensure that most of the people who catch it are below 70, so herd immunity is reached with the minimal number of deaths, if herd immunity is even possible.

Anyway this is how cuomo and de blasio stack up against a country that did not lock down. All Cuomo achieved was kill seniors in their 10s of thousands by ensuring they bore the brunt of the outbreak, precisely the opposite of what is required to save lives. But fake news is going fake news. Its a monumental scandal, but its an election year, so fuck them.

I can't tell you how much fake/manipulated polls would be a terrible political strategy. Which is why it isn't a real thing, at least not among established pollsters. Purposefully misrepresenting where your candidate stands would screw with your campaign's strategy (example: Hillary not campaigning in Michigan due to a polling lead), and I haven't seen any evidence that showing a false lead would improve election results. Actual manipulation would be a massive scandal and the pollsters involved would be immediately blacklisted from doing any work in that field, and it would be a pointless endeavor. There are pollsters who have different sampling methodologies, but this is simply based on different theories of political representation, and pollsters are constantly working to improve their accuracy on that.

Trump has stated multiple times that he has internal numbers that put him ahead. But none of this data is ever released, probably because it either A. doesn't exist, or B. has laughable methodology issues. Even the less-credible pollsters that oversample republicans can't manage to show Trump winning.

Good points, but some of the polls coming out have been ridiculous, putting biden ahead in texas and 15 points ahead nationally etc. These cant be real, well that is what I suspect anyway. Then as the race progresses they all start to tighten, and start looking real again. I dont know what is going on there.

You have said yourself, I think, that Trump cant make up this deficit, but imo he can, and its partly bc i think polls are manipulated. If they do tighten to a degree to where trump has a chance to win, then you would have to admit there is something fishy going on.

 

[rev0lver]

Yeah, I mean Trump has pretty much done everything he said he was going to do In his administration within his first term. Before COVID hit, I was talking to people and we weren’t sure who had a better first term in the history of the United States. There’s no wars, the economy as a whole improved from a state of an already strong economy (2008 recession recovered by 2015), and there wasn’t any new policies that really messed things up.

The problem is like you said, the two sides are just so far apart on how the United States should be run. The left want a more socialized economy with “free” education and medical that will come at the tax payers expense. The right want a more capitalistic approach with more free markets on everything but abortion. The politics are very similar to the Civil War times we’re viewpoints of the world were this split and this far apart.

The problem is a lot of this country hasn't really seen his benefits, and really hasn't seen much of anything beyond watching Trump embarrass our country on the world stage, bring us to the brink of war multiple times, screw up virtually every disaster/crisis response, and generally show a lack of competency. Stock market numbers are nice, employment numbers are nice. But we were also sitting on record-high consumer debt, wages still sitting far behind costs of living, and most of the country didn't have enough savings for a $400 emergency. This was pre-covid, and now he faces a potential housing crisis that I doubt anyone has confidence he can handle. Trump sings his own praises with whatever positive numbers he can find (whether or not he even caused them), while ignoring where people are struggling. I don't know how you can take an objective look at America's situation and be surprised people are catching onto the ideas of tuition-free college and universal healthcare, or be surprised they don't like the direction Trump's pushing us in.

 

[longway]

Trump embarrass our country on the world stage, bring us to the brink of war multiple times, screw up virtually every disaster/crisis response, and generally show a lack of competency.

In the immortal words of our very mortal, and according to you, soon to be Dear Leader, until his sudden death 'C'mon Man'.

You make a lot of fair points in general, but this is just dumb.

 

[rev0lver]

Just noticed this. I didn't realise you were going to bring this up again. As I said you can't stop people catching covid, the only way to save lives is to ensure that most of the people who catch it are below 70, so herd immunity is reached with the minimal number of deaths, if herd immunity is even possible.

Anyway this is how cuomo and de blasio stack up against a country that did not lock down. All Cuomo achieved was kill seniors in their 10s of thousands by ensuring they bore the brunt of the outbreak, precisely the opposite of what is required to save lives. But fake news is going fake news. Its a monumental scandal, but its an election year, so fuck them.

I can bring up again that there are a huge number of factors that can cause these differences and cause Sweden's lower numbers, and the fact that Sweden performed much worse than other places that had lockdowns, the fact that Sweden was far from "open", the fact that NY showed a massive sharp decline that wouldn't just happen naturally, the fact that that percentage is nowhere near a proper herd immunity, and the fact that natural herd immunity is not an actual strategy against a pandemic. But I'm not really interested in this discussion for the purpose of this thread.

Good points, but some of the polls coming out have been ridiculous, putting biden ahead in texas and 15 points ahead nationally etc. These cant be real, well that is what I suspect anyway. Then as the race progresses they all start to tighten, and start looking real again. I dont know what is going on there.

You have said yourself, I think, that Trump cant make up this deficit, but imo he can, and its partly bc i think polls are manipulated. If they do tighten to a degree to where trump has a chance to win, then you would have to admit there is something fishy going on.

I wouldn't call a poll like that fake, I don't see a reason to. You just have to compare all the polls together. More data = more accuracy. If 1 poll shows Biden +2 and 5 polls show Trump +3, it doesn't mean the first one was fake, it just means there happened to be more Biden supporters in that particular sample, and Trump would have a lead but it might be a tight race. Those things happen.

In 2016, there were numerous polls showing Trump winning in Nevada and New Hampshire. A CNN poll had Trump + 6 in Nevada a week before the election! But he lost both states. I wouldn't call that poll fake either, I would just say it happened to catch a more pro-Trump sample.

I think it's stupid when people flip out over single polling results, both when it shows Biden leading states that he averages behind in, and when Trump shows closer numbers than he's gotten previously. I consider the pro-Trump numbers, but amalgamations are more important. 4 reputable pollsters put out national results in the past two days. 2 showed Biden +10. One showed Biden +9. One showed Biden +4. I doubt any of them are fake or manipulated, even with different numbers. But the reality is still probably closer to the +10 when you take them together.

 

[rev0lver]

In the immortal words of our very mortal, and according to you, soon to be Dear Leader, until his sudden death 'C'mon Man'.

You make a lot of fair points in general, but this is just dumb.

I mean it's true, and I could type out an essay on each point, I just don't like debating specific policies etc in a forum that's more about election results lol. But I think it sends a clear message that Trump had negative approval even with (what he called) a good economy and (relative) peacetime. You have to consider that there's more going on than what he boasts about, and maybe the negative polls have good reasons behind them.

 

[longway]

I mean it's true, and I could type out an essay on each point, I just don't like debating specific policies etc in a forum that's more about election results lol. But I think it sends a clear message that Trump had negative approval even with (what he called) a good economy and (relative) peacetime. You have to consider that there's more going on than what he boasts about, and maybe the negative polls have good reasons behind them.

Not really, it could be well debated, but its pointless. I just find the whole orange man bad thing hokey. Another poster listed a lengthy string of his accomplishments, while you can find ways to criticise them, you cant ignore them, so the way you characterised trump makes you look dumb.