Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Hahahaha holy shit, he really did pick Kamala. This election cycle is going to be even more hilarious.

Im so happy that the Biden campaign is as stupid as i thought they were. There is a reason why she ended up handing out cookies by the end of her presidential bid.

Massive confidence boost in trump.

Who can forget this legendary takedown

 

[rev0lver]

You guys keep using the word exponential, you obviously dont know what it means. There is no exponential rise anywhere that has opened in usa. Obviously infections are going to increase, thats a given.

Do you know the difference between exponential growth and other kinds of growth? And you understand that using the term "exponential" doesn't necessarily denote infinite, right? Because there absolutely was exponential growth in Florida for a period of time when Florida decided to loosen restrictions. Overall, sure the entire trendline is not exponential, but I'm talking about June through July when their cases rose, in a non-linear fashion, from ~1k/day to ~10k/day. Anything higher than a consistent growth pattern is exponential, just not necessarily with an exact formula. But this is nitpicking, and the larger point is that we saw a major increase.

Testing and tracing is ok, but you are not going to be able to implement that in usa bc you have so many illegals. And it has limitations anyway bc of asymptomatic or spread by people with mild symptoms.

There is no eradicating this virus without complete isolation from outside world. I dont know why this virus engrnders such an hysterical overeaction, we live with all kinds of risks without such a crazy emphasis on just this virus and just one metric of it.

There is nothing that cannot be handled in states that are opening up, that is the bottom line.

South Korea and New Zealand have successfully done this with far less cases per mil than Sweden. Not totally opened up and taking a lot of precautions, but they were able to avoid a death wave by doing a proper lockdown and instituting strong contact tracing. New Zealand has practically eradicated it from their country. I really don't think illegals have that much to do with an implementation here. We have a bigger problem in people thinking covid is a fake democrat conspiracy, that they don't have to wear masks, and our freedoms are being infringed or some shit.

 

[longway]

Do you know the difference between exponential growth and other kinds of growth? And you understand that using the term "exponential" doesn't necessarily denote infinite, right? Because there absolutely was exponential growth in Florida for a period of time when Florida decided to loosen restrictions. Overall, sure the entire trendline is not exponential, but I'm talking about June through July when their cases rose, in a non-linear fashion, from ~1k/day to ~10k/day. Anything higher than a consistent growth pattern is exponential, just not necessarily with an exact formula. But this is nitpicking, and the larger point is that we saw a major increase.



South Korea and New Zealand have successfully done this with far less cases per mil than Sweden. Not totally opened up and taking a lot of precautions, but they were able to avoid a death wave by doing a proper lockdown and instituting strong contact tracing. New Zealand has practically eradicated it from their country. I really don't think illegals have that much to do with an implementation here. We have a bigger problem in people thinking covid is a fake democrat conspiracy, that they don't have to wear masks, and our freedoms are being infringed or some shit.

I just double checked Florida, there is no time that you can call the number of infections increasing exponentially except way back between mid to late march. Its linear growth, and a function of increased testing and reopening. Exponential means continuously accelerating growth, not whatever it is you said. Its not nit picking bc if you have exponential growth then you have to lock down again. Once again you focus on this one metric, and it doesn't even remotely match your description.

Sorry, I just realised I made a mistake, there is a period where you can call the growth in infections exponential, but it soon levels off and becomes a linear function again. My apologies.

BTW the reason why I mention illegals is bc they will obviously not reveal their contacts and those who are not illegal will not name their contacts with illegals. This obviously makes testing and tracing far less useful.

Nz are up shit creek in a canoe waiting for a paddle, and to get there they have cut themselves off from rest of the world and at massive cost to their social and economic fabric with their crazy ott lockdown. This is not a success, this is a country led into the middle of nowhere with no plan. Chances are at some point they will have to jump out of the canoe and swim out of shit creek like most of the world, and it would have been for nothing.

Possible that, ike most of Asia, aus and Nz already have immunity. Thailand for example was a cluster fuck in their pandemic response, but they have no new cases bc they cut themselves from outside world and are making large sections of their populations destitute to do it. They did little testing or tracing, they let in millions of chinese tourists until mid march, then packed migrant workers into buses from Bangkok that would hv spread the virus throughout the country, but they had nothing resembling a pandemic, but still ended up destroying their economy out of hysteria, just like Nz.

 

[Joedaman55]

Im so happy that the Biden campaign is as stupid as i thought they were. There is a reason why she ended up handing out cookies by the end of her presidential bid.

Massive confidence boost in trump.

Who can forget this legendary takedown

Usually a VP pick doesn’t hurt or help candidates much but this one is bad. She collapsed so badly in the primary she was pretty much done as a serious candidate and created giant red flags. The only VP pick worse than this was McCain choosing Palin which caused him to do far poorer that election than he should have.

This pick probably lost a lot of moderate and blue collar votes.

 

[TrueAscension]

The pick lost no one. Trump has gone off the rails so badly that only his rabid base is there now and even they’re starting to question him. The left admittedly put up two glaringly weak candidates but it won’t matter

 

[Papi]

The pick lost no one. Trump has gone off the rails so badly that only his rabid base is there now and even they’re starting to question him. The left admittedly put up two glaringly weak candidates but it won’t matter

I think your dreaming bud. Its gonna be a close race

 

[TrueAscension]

I think your dreaming bud. Its gonna be a close race

I don’t care one way or another, they’re all politicians.

 

[mkess101]

Usually a VP pick doesn’t hurt or help candidates much but this one is bad. She collapsed so badly in the primary she was pretty much done as a serious candidate and created giant red flags. The only VP pick worse than this was McCain choosing Palin which caused him to do far poorer that election than he should have.

This pick probably lost a lot of moderate and blue collar votes.

IMO you are underrating the BLM movement and how much it will influence the vote. I live in an almost exclusively white, upper middle class suburb and we have people lining up along the streets in town holding up signs saying "White silence=violence" and stuff like that. This is RICH WHITE PEOPLE doing this. It is now the NORM in a lot of places that were previously split that Trump is a racist that needs to go.

I do think the electoral vote will be relatively close but Trump is in trouble.

 

[longway]

Since Kamala's selection odds for trump shortened from +178 to +160. Every time she lets off her fake braying laugh, it should continue to shorten.

 

[rev0lver]

IMO you are underrating the BLM movement and how much it will influence the vote. I live in an almost exclusively white, upper middle class suburb and we have people lining up along the streets in town holding up signs saying "White silence=violence" and stuff like that. This is RICH WHITE PEOPLE doing this. It is now the NORM in a lot of places that were previously split that Trump is a racist that needs to go.

I do think the electoral vote will be relatively close but Trump is in trouble.

This is true. It might blow Trump supporters' minds, but BLM has strong majority support in this country. Trump's response to it has been another massive failure on his part. This isn't a 50/50 race, Trump just has his own base of diehards and reluctant republicans left. Most of America wants him gone and don't really care who takes his place.

I don't think the electoral vote will be close though. Trump's more in danger or losing solid red states than Biden's in danger of losing purple states. I would be shocked to see Biden win with less than 300.

 

[Joedaman55]

IMO you are underrating the BLM movement and how much it will influence the vote. I live in an almost exclusively white, upper middle class suburb and we have people lining up along the streets in town holding up signs saying "White silence=violence" and stuff like that. This is RICH WHITE PEOPLE doing this. It is now the NORM in a lot of places that were previously split that Trump is a racist that needs to go.

I do think the electoral vote will be relatively close but Trump is in trouble.

Possible, where do you and Revolver live?

The BLM movement is extremely popular and extremely damaging in regards to voting in the United States. Policy and cultural wise, America is very divided on how people believe it should be run and you can see that in the presidential voting going back to Bush Sr and how it’s changed.

Lol, I’d also be careful in assessing things based on noise in very pro/anti trump areas. Those places are already anchored into their beliefs/votes and nothing will change them no matter what occurs. This causes a series of irrational attacks from the opposing sides when they don’t make sense and people to not correctly assess what the majority is thinking in battleground states.

With the sample of people I know that are middle voters (they go democrat/republican about 50% of the time), they’re preferring Trump as they think the Democrats went too far left. I’m pretty sure it’s my whole sample size and they don’t talk about politics with many people. This is my biggest indicator that Trump is a heavy favorite.

 

[Joedaman55]

This is true. It might blow Trump supporters' minds, but BLM has strong majority support in this country. Trump's response to it has been another massive failure on his part. This isn't a 50/50 race, Trump just has his own base of diehards and reluctant republicans left. Most of America wants him gone and don't really care who takes his place.

I don't think the electoral vote will be close though. Trump's more in danger or losing solid red states than Biden's in danger of losing purple states. I would be shocked to see Biden win with less than 300.

Lol oh absolutely not, Trump hasn’t lost any voters since last election regarding my sample size. I don’t think anyone I know has shifted to voting for the other party this election, not as sure what 18-22 are doing though. The left hates him with a passion, Trump lovers think he’s the greatest president ever, the right doesn’t like him as much as other candidates but accept him, the middle hates both parties but prefer Trump over any of the left candidates due to their progressive policies.

 

[mkess101]

Possible, where do you and Revolver live?

The BLM movement is extremely popular and extremely damaging in regards to voting in the United States. Policy and cultural wise, America is very divided on how people believe it should be run and you can see that in the presidential voting going back to Bush Sr and how it’s changed.

Lol, I’d also be careful in assessing things based on noise in very pro/anti trump areas. Those places are already anchored into their beliefs/votes and nothing will change them no matter what occurs. This causes a series of irrational attacks from the opposing sides when they don’t make sense and people to not correctly assess what the majority is thinking in battleground states.

With the sample of people I know that are middle voters (they go democrat/republican about 50% of the time), they’re preferring Trump as they think the Democrats went too far left. I’m pretty sure it’s my whole sample size and they don’t talk about politics with many people. This is my biggest indicator that Trump is a heavy favorite.

I actually live in a midwestern battleground state. To be fair, the state tends to be very clearly divided meaning that the 2 most populous counties vote blue and the rest of the state which is rural votes red. I do live in one of those two populous counties to be fair, BUT...again I'm out in the suburbs where traditionally the voting tends to be split pretty evenly. But the feeling here and in discussing a bit with others I know that live in the suburbs (not just my area but others that are similar) is that it has shifted noticeably for this election alone. I am not talking congressional races, local politics, any of that. These areas likely are all still split pretty evenly when it comes to politics in general. But there is a STRONG anti-Trump sentiment in many of these places where he likely did well (or at least held his own and did okay, didn't get slaughtered) last election. My opinion is that it's for a variety of reasons. Some his fault, some not. But it's real as far as I can see.

 

[rev0lver]

the middle hates both parties but prefer Trump over any of the left candidates due to their progressive policies.

I agree with the first statement but strongly disagree that they prefer Trump. He absolutely does not have the support of independents. Remember that independent voters are not necessarily the "middle" between right and left wing, and there are very few people who are actually that kind of "middle". The majority of independents actually support progressive policies that are way further left than Biden.

Just look at regular polling and approval. Whatever you think about 2016, Trump isn't winning over the people and he's far from it. And he's too divisive to capture people who weren't already on his side, and divisive enough to lose a lot of voters.

Possible, where do you and Revolver live?

The BLM movement is extremely popular and extremely damaging in regards to voting in the United States. Policy and cultural wise, America is very divided on how people believe it should be run and you can see that in the presidential voting going back to Bush Sr and how it’s changed.

Lol, I’d also be careful in assessing things based on noise in very pro/anti trump areas. Those places are already anchored into their beliefs/votes and nothing will change them no matter what occurs. This causes a series of irrational attacks from the opposing sides when they don’t make sense and people to not correctly assess what the majority is thinking in battleground states.

With the sample of people I know that are middle voters (they go democrat/republican about 50% of the time), they’re preferring Trump as they think the Democrats went too far left. I’m pretty sure it’s my whole sample size and they don’t talk about politics with many people. This is my biggest indicator that Trump is a heavy favorite.

I live in California, but I grew up in PA/NC and still keep up with people there. Also FWIW I work in a very conservative field (commercial real estate) so I prob interact with conservatives more often than not.

It definitely is divisive, I'm just talking about polling literally showing majority support for it and for their protests. And there's been a sharp uptick in that support over the past few years.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/63-...nition-discrimination-jumps/story?id=71779435

I don't like to extrapolate what my own social bubbles think/believe to the whole of the country. But I know a lot of progressives, a lot of moderate/establishment dems, a lot of independents, and a lot of conservatives. Most of the conservatives are fully on the Trump train, but I say "most" because it's the only group where some of them are questioning their vote this year.

Regardless of our anecdotes though, I just don't see any of the proper data in Trump's favor. He had low approval even when there were stronger economic numbers. Most people just don't like him, and from a policy standpoint the dems almost always do better on the issues. The only way I see Trump winning is with a chaotic election situation where we never really know who was meant to win, which the covid+mail-in situations might cause.

 

[Joedaman55]

I actually live in a midwestern battleground state. To be fair, the state tends to be very clearly divided meaning that the 2 most populous counties vote blue and the rest of the state which is rural votes red. I do live in one of those two populous counties to be fair, BUT...again I'm out in the suburbs where traditionally the voting tends to be split pretty evenly. But the feeling here and in discussing a bit with others I know that live in the suburbs (not just my area but others that are similar) is that it has shifted noticeably for this election alone. I am not talking congressional races, local politics, any of that. These areas likely are all still split pretty evenly when it comes to politics in general. But there is a STRONG anti-Trump sentiment in many of these places where he likely did well (or at least held his own and did okay, didn't get slaughtered) last election. My opinion is that it's for a variety of reasons. Some his fault, some not. But it's real as far as I can see.

Nice, we’ll definitely see. I’m not seeing it in my state and the same amount of people seem split as last time.

Did Trump win your state last time? He won most battleground states outside of New Hampshire and Nevada.

 

[mkess101]

Nice, we’ll definitely see. I’m not seeing it in my state and the same amount of people seem split as last time.

Did Trump win your state last time? He won most battleground states outside of New Hampshire and Nevada.

He did win it in '16, by the slimmest of margins. If there's even a slight shift away from him he loses it this time.

Basically nobody is excited even a little about Biden. I think even the most hardcore Dems know he's a piss poor candidate. The ballot to a lot of people is basically going to look like:

Trump:
NOT Trump:

Biden is inconsequential to many imo, he's just the other guy to try to get Trump out of there.

 

[Joedaman55]

I agree with the first statement but strongly disagree that they prefer Trump. He absolutely does not have the support of independents. Remember that independent voters are not necessarily the "middle" between right and left wing, and there are very few people who are actually that kind of "middle". The majority of independents actually support progressive policies that are way further left than Biden.

Just look at regular polling and approval. Whatever you think about 2016, Trump isn't winning over the people and he's far from it. And he's too divisive to capture people who weren't already on his side, and divisive enough to lose a lot of voters.



I live in California, but I grew up in PA/NC and still keep up with people there. Also FWIW I work in a very conservative field (commercial real estate) so I prob interact with conservatives more often than not.

It definitely is divisive, I'm just talking about polling literally showing majority support for it and for their protests. And there's been a sharp uptick in that support over the past few years.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/63-...nition-discrimination-jumps/story?id=71779435

I don't like to extrapolate what my own social bubbles think/believe to the whole of the country. But I know a lot of progressives, a lot of moderate/establishment dems, a lot of independents, and a lot of conservatives. Most of the conservatives are fully on the Trump train, but I say "most" because it's the only group where some of them are questioning their vote this year.

Regardless of our anecdotes though, I just don't see any of the proper data in Trump's favor. He had low approval even when there were stronger economic numbers. Most people just don't like him, and from a policy standpoint the dems almost always do better on the issues. The only way I see Trump winning is with a chaotic election situation where we never really know who was meant to win, which the covid+mail-in situations might cause.

Interesting, most Independents I know were against Universal Income, free healthcare for illegal immigrants and free college, they were split on ACA though. Those usually were the decision makers.

I’ve already stated how I think polling is way off as it was during the last election. Easiest example is Florida, no matter who you think is going to win, that state is within one or two points for either side. Lol it certainly isn’t +6 or +13 Biden, this indicates that these polls are skewed Democrats and won’t predict accurate results without adjustment.

I guess were you shocked by the results in 2016? It pretty much worked out how I thought it would with me missing a few states but I had him getting close to 300 electoral votes.

 

[Joedaman55]

He did win it in '16, by the slimmest of margins. If there's even a slight shift away from him he loses it this time.

Basically nobody is excited even a little about Biden. I think even the most hardcore Dems know he's a piss poor candidate. The ballot to a lot of people is basically going to look like:

Trump:
NOT Trump:

Biden is inconsequential to many imo, he's just the other guy to try to get Trump out of there.

Yeah so that’s a big problem to is voter motivation. Hillary motivated a lot of people to vote but nothing like Obama. I think Biden is less motivating than Hillary so I’m predicting worse voter turnout especially with the Kamala pick.

I voted for Obama in 08 for the sole reason McCain could die at anytime and there was no way in hell I wanted Sarah Palin running the United States. That was at a period where I was voting republican on everything. I believe Kamala creates this same problem for Moderate Democrats.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah so that’s a big problem to is voter motivation. Hillary motivated a lot of people to vote but nothing like Obama. I think Biden is less motivating than Hillary so I’m predicting worse voter turnout especially with the Kamala pick.

I voted for Obama in 08 for the sole reason McCain could die at anytime and there was no way in hell I wanted Sarah Palin running the United States. That was at a period where I was voting republican on everything. I believe Kamala creates this same problem for Moderate Democrats.

Could be. But I think the pure anti-Trump sentiment is going to overwhelm that.

 

[rev0lver]

Interesting, most Independents I know were against Universal Income, free healthcare for illegal immigrants and free college, they were split on ACA though. Those usually were the decision makers.

I’ve already stated how I think polling is way off as it was during the last election. Easiest example is Florida, no matter who you think is going to win, that state is within one or two points for either side. Lol it certainly isn’t +6 or +13 Biden, this indicates that these polls are skewed Democrats and won’t predict accurate results without adjustment.

I guess were you shocked by the results in 2016? It pretty much worked out how I thought it would with me missing a few states but I had him getting close to 300 electoral votes.

I don't think issues like UBI are quite there yet for a majority. But I'm talking about things like MFA that they do have majority support with. Registered independents are much more aligned with the left than the right, issue-wise. Not many people are straight up in-between.

Polling was not very off in Florida. They were nearly tied in Florida polling leading up to election day. Polling with Gary Johnson in the mix even had Trump leading by a couple points. And he won by 1.2 points. Biden's doing much better there (at least right now) than Hillary was on election day.

I was not shocked in 2016, I predicted Trump to win. I pretty much modeled most of the states where Trump was polling within the margin of error to be victories for Trump. I saw it as an enthusiasm issue, where most people hated Trump but didn't think he'd win, and no one really cared much for Hillary, so a good chunk of them stayed home or voted third party. I can't prove this of course, but I strongly believe if they held a rematch a day later, Hillary would've won. This time around, I think everyone takes the threat of him winning more seriously, and the anti-Trump enthusiasm being much bigger than the pro-Trump enthusiasm will prevent him from getting the bump he needs.