Political Betting Thread

2. Can you tell what policy has achieved this?

3. The fact is that you don't know what exponential means. The number of infections are declining or flattening.

4. I think you need to stop watching cnn and thinking about me. Go for a walk, lick a window or something.

1. Are you abandoning your "we are close to herd immunity" argument because you seem to be.
2. Mandatory shutting down of all non-essential businesses in NYC, demanding government assistance, phased re-openings, mandatory masks, and enforcement of said policies. Declining to take the president's advice to reopen the economy before it was the right time to do so. Encouragement for all businesses big and small to practice and enforce social distancing, etc. The list goes on and on and the proof is in the pudding.
3. No they're not. Quite the opposite. https://www.barrons.com/news/us-top...hree-months-johns-hopkins-01596761106?tesla=y
4. That's cute, I don't watch CNN or any other politically biased news channels or much TV for that matter.
5. Do you actually watch MMA or do you just troll any political board you can find?
 
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1. Are you abandoning your "we are close to herd immunity" argument because you seem to be.
2. Mandatory shutting down of all non-essential businesses in NYC, demanding government assistance, phased re-openings, mandatory masks, and enforcement of said policies. Declining to take the president's advice to reopen the economy before it was the right time to do so. Encouragement for all businesses big and small to practice and enforce social distancing, etc. The list goes on and on and the proof is in the pudding.
3. No they're not. Quite the opposite. https://www.barrons.com/news/us-top...hree-months-johns-hopkins-01596761106?tesla=y
4. That's cute, I don't watch CNN or any other politically biased news channels or much TV for that matter.
5. Do you actually watch MMA or do you just troll any political board you can find?

1. I answered extensively in previous posts, but you just cannot understand anything.

2. How do you know these worked? Sweden didnt do much of these and had a better result. What cuomo was responsible for was the deaths of thousands of senior citizens as he forced aop homes to take in sick patients to make space in hospitals for surge that never materialised. Nyc is at herd immunuty and cuomo's negligence has meant the deaths per million to get there is one of the hightest in the world. Some of those policies you talk about are not only pointless but detrimental, as it prolongs the social and economic pain for no good reason.

3. Once again you have no idea what you are saying. Infection rates are not.rising exponentially, and your link is not relrvant.

4. Im impressed you can reach a state of such ignorance without cnn

5. Stop thinking about me dude. Its weird. You can see my sig like anyone else.

6. You are just a muddled up guy lashing out at a fantasy world, and for some reason i am getting shit from you.
 
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1. I answered extensively in previous posts, but you just cannot understand anything.

2. How do you know these worked? Sweden didnt do much of these and had a better result. What cuomo was responsible for was the deaths of thousands of senior citizens as he forced aop homes to take in sick patients to make space in hospitals for surge that never materialised. Nyc is at herd immunuty and cuomo's negligence has meant the deaths per million to get there is one of the hightest in the world. Some of those policies you talk about are not only pointless but detrimental, as it prolongs the social and economic pain for no good reason.

3. Once again you have no idea what you are saying. Infection rates are not.rising exponentially, and your link is not relrvant.

4. Im impressed you can reach a state of such ignorance without cnn

5. Stop thinking about me dude. Its weird. You can see my sig like anyone else.

6. You are just a muddled up guy lashing out at a fantasy world, and for some reason i am getting shit from you.

1. No you didn't.
2. I know because I live in NYC and watched our city go from refrigerated trucks full of bodies on the highway to very low hospitalization rates. NYC is nowhere near herd immunity. You don't even understand what that term means. Economic and social pain is very real I will give you that but its a necessary evil to keep the numbers down.
3. The link is relevant, it shows the rates are growing. Learn to read.
4. Thank you.
5. I don't think about you. You're now on ignore.
6. Cute. Enjoy losing money on Trump while you fuck lady boys in Thailand. Congrats on the 66 unit profit in 3.25 years.
 
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5. I don't think about you. You're now on ignore.

I hope that counts as a promise. That whackjob is lost in a world of bs. I don't know why I have take shit for it though.





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As far as the Sweden argument goes, their cases are declining but they had a far higher death rate than neighboring countries, and still continue to have a higher death rate even with the declines. It's hard to draw conclusions about their strategy, considering those facts and that we saw opposite effects in America as some states opened up early. Should also point out that Sweden did ban mass gatherings. And they had widespread social distancing, it was just voluntary rather than mandated. So you could potentially add a cultural factor into that in how their population followed guidelines. There isn't enough evidence to point toward a significant herd immunity in Sweden (or NYC), but it's very unlikely it would be anything near what we call "herd immunity" when we refer to vaccinated populations.

I do think it's worth pointing out though that the number of cases in America (and elsewhere) is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases, so you need to take that into account when discussing immunity.

I don't think this discussion is that relevant though. I just think Americans generally take the pandemic more seriously than our president has, and that's become a big problem for him politically. If you want a political takeaway from Sweden, look at it like this: they put a procedure in place and got their country to follow them. We didn't, and instead generally left it up to state governments. Trump didn't show leadership here, he just complained about the virus messing up his economic numbers and hinted at vague conspiracies. A crisis is an opportunity to create a unifying event, and he only created more divisiveness while watching his polling and approval fall. It's getting too late for him, and the dems are just gonna hammer this issue and probably be successful with it.
 
As far as the Sweden argument goes, their cases are declining but they had a far higher death rate than neighboring countries, and still continue to have a higher death rate even with the declines. It's hard to draw conclusions about their strategy, considering those facts and that we saw opposite effects in America as some states opened up early. Should also point out that Sweden did ban mass gatherings. And they had widespread social distancing, it was just voluntary rather than mandated. So you could potentially add a cultural factor into that in how their population followed guidelines. There isn't enough evidence to point toward a significant herd immunity in Sweden (or NYC), but it's very unlikely it would be anything near what we call "herd immunity" when we refer to vaccinated populations.

I do think it's worth pointing out though that the number of cases in America (and elsewhere) is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases, so you need to take that into account when discussing immunity.

I don't think this discussion is that relevant though. I just think Americans generally take the pandemic more seriously than our president has, and that's become a big problem for him politically. If you want a political takeaway from Sweden, look at it like this: they put a procedure in place and got their country to follow them. We didn't, and instead generally left it up to state governments. Trump didn't show leadership here, he just complained about the virus messing up his economic numbers and hinted at vague conspiracies. A crisis is an opportunity to create a unifying event, and he only created more divisiveness while watching his polling and approval fall. It's getting too late for him, and the dems are just gonna hammer this issue and probably be successful with it.

Any reply of mine other than "well said" adds nothing. So..well said.
 
As far as the Sweden argument goes, their cases are declining but they had a far higher death rate than neighboring countries, and still continue to have a higher death rate even with the declines. It's hard to draw conclusions about their strategy, considering those facts and that we saw opposite effects in America as some states opened up early. Should also point out that Sweden did ban mass gatherings. And they had widespread social distancing, it was just voluntary rather than mandated. So you could potentially add a cultural factor into that in how their population followed guidelines. There isn't enough evidence to point toward a significant herd immunity in Sweden (or NYC), but it's very unlikely it would be anything near what we call "herd immunity" when we refer to vaccinated populations.

I do think it's worth pointing out though that the number of cases in America (and elsewhere) is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases, so you need to take that into account when discussing immunity.

Unfortunately you guys still dont get it. There is no stopping this virus, either you reach herd immuniity faster or slower, that is it. Lockdowns dont stop anything, they just delay the end point, which is either herd immunity or vaccine.

You can see herd immunity being approached quite clearly, there is nothing to quibble about, you can only get declining cases without lockdown if you are approaching herd immunity, there is no other reason it happens.

Look at daily deaths of ny v sweden. Tell me what the difference is, beyond cuomo's incompetence killing 1000s of seniors for no reason.

Sweden deaths




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New York deaths

The political take away is that the media are fear mongering as usual, and a one size fits all policy for USA will not work.

You view it how you like, but the fact is that universal lock downs were unnecessary and its a good thing trump had the foresight to see it. Understand or not, the DNC would have devastated us economy with universal lock downs even further than now as they don't want to govern, just stand in front of cameras to virtue signal. Governing is difficult.

Here is daily deaths in Arizona which DNC is lying about currently. Where is the exponential rise?
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Arizona, deaths

Arizona new cases

Yes, DNC will try to make the most of it. But its just bs. You can clearly see deaths rising slower, even accounting for delay, than infections, in these circumstances lock down is not only pointless, but detrimental as delays herd immunity for no reason.

For christ's sake, this is good news, let go of your hatred for trump and be happy this nightmare is coming to end. i'm sorry your biggest nightmare is trump is right about something.

So, will Trump get re-elected, things don't look good for him, but he is facing a man in severe mental decline. Without the pandemic he was on his way to re-election, but his fault or not, its made it far more difficult without a doubt. But I will just play it as I see it, as will you.

But please no more nonsense about exponential rises and 1.4%, weird obssesion, and all the rest of the delusional nonsense.
 
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As far as the Sweden argument goes, their cases are declining but they had a far higher death rate than neighboring countries, and still continue to have a higher death rate even with the declines.
Fyi zero deaths reported today, zero in intensive care.

You propably have alot of valid points but in regards to swedes many just didnt give a f*ck especially the younger generation going to the Beach and bars etc.
 
Unfortunately you guys still dont get it. There is no stopping this virus, either you reach herd immuniity faster or slower, that is it. Lockdowns dont stop anything, they just delay the end point, which is either herd immunity or vaccine.

You can see herd immunity being approached quite clearly, there is nothing to quibble about, you can only get declining cases without lockdown if you are approaching herd immunity, there is no other reason it happens.

Look at daily deaths of ny v sweden. Tell me what the difference is, beyond cuomo's incompetence killing 1000s of seniorscfor no reason.

The end point we're trying to reach is a vaccine or eradication by reaching 0 cases. The idea behind the lockdowns is to slow the spread so we can reach immunity by vaccine and not by giving everyone the virus.

There are other reasons why that could happen in Sweden. Research showed much of their population adhered to social distancing guidelines, even though it wasn't government-enforced, along with stricter sanitation standards in buildings. They also did have mandates with mass gatherings, it wasn't business-as-usual. So it would make sense that their case numbers go down as people adjusted to that. But I don't know what the real argument is when you see their neighboring countries, who did institute lockdowns, having a much lower death rate and never seeing as high of a spike. We don't know if herd immunity is even relevant long-term with changes in the virus and reinfection potential.

When I compare deaths in NY and Sweden, I see NY having a big initial spike with a steep decline. Sweden has a long gradual decline. I would say the former looks better and tells me something was done to force a steeper decline. But I don't think it's appropriate to directly compare the two, too many variables involved especially as it's state vs foreign country.
 
The end point we're trying to reach is a vaccine or eradication by reaching 0 cases. The idea behind the lockdowns is to slow the spread so we can reach immunity by vaccine and not by giving everyone the virus.

There is no eradication without isolation from the outside world. Vaccine is just medically bestowed herd immunity. Not everyone gets virus to achieve herd immunity, the figure these days is thought to be around 15-25%, dependent on some variables. 50-60% are naturally immune to the virus having acquired immunity from other corona virus infections. This is what you don't get.

As you say, lock downs slow the spread, but if the medical services are not being overwhelmed they serve no purpose.

NYC steep rise and then decline was bc cuomo killed a lot of seniors upfront with his disastrous decision to force infected covid patients into old peoples' homes, so he front loaded his numbers with the most vulnerable. Now having killed them, he is destroying the economy for no reason.

I'm not saying don't social distance etc, but lock downs are not an end point in itself.

Your alternative suggestions about sweden's declining infection rate are just not plausible.

When you lock down you have less deaths, but unless you lock down until vaccine the deaths will hit similar levels to Sweden as you ease restrictions.

This is why the deaths per million is not that great a measure, and why comparing neighbouring countries to Sweden until they hit herd immunity is meaningless.
 
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This is another much overlooked cost to lock downs.

 
The end point we're trying to reach is a vaccine or eradication by reaching 0 cases. The idea behind the lockdowns is to slow the spread so we can reach immunity by vaccine and not by giving everyone the virus.

There are other reasons why that could happen in Sweden. Research showed much of their population adhered to social distancing guidelines, even though it wasn't government-enforced, along with stricter sanitation standards in buildings. They also did have mandates with mass gatherings, it wasn't business-as-usual. So it would make sense that their case numbers go down as people adjusted to that. But I don't know what the real argument is when you see their neighboring countries, who did institute lockdowns, having a much lower death rate and never seeing as high of a spike. We don't know if herd immunity is even relevant long-term with changes in the virus and reinfection potential.

When I compare deaths in NY and Sweden, I see NY having a big initial spike with a steep decline. Sweden has a long gradual decline. I would say the former looks better and tells me something was done to force a steeper decline. But I don't think it's appropriate to directly compare the two, too many variables involved especially as it's state vs foreign country.
I'm not getting a vaccine, this whole thing has been Mickey mouse. I'm not trusting some rushed vaccine, and I'm not even an anti vaccine person, there's a lot of people that feel the same way I do. So to put all your hope into this magic vaccine that's supposedly on it's way is futile. Of course I'm sure leftist will mock and ridcule the people that don't want to get it lol
 
Whats going on with the VP pick? I think it must be Rice or a surprise pick. If it was Kamala then they would have announced it already imo.

I think the politico wierdness was a flex by the kamala faction, and if they have to flex then she cant be in a strong position. Maybe she wants AG in return for stepping aside for VP slot.

But Harris still the favourite, and no movement on Rice, you would have thought insiders would move the line. Michael line closing quite a bit, but might not mean much, as its a pretty thin market for her afaics.

Its got to be a prominent figure, as its not Biden running against Trump, but his VP pick.
 
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I'm not getting a vaccine, this whole thing has been Mickey mouse. I'm not trusting some rushed vaccine, and I'm not even an anti vaccine person, there's a lot of people that feel the same way I do. So to put all your hope into this magic vaccine that's supposedly on it's way is futile. Of course I'm sure leftist will mock and ridcule the people that don't want to get it lol
Not really. Most people concerned with toxic ingredients in vaccines are health conscious leftists. They get a lot of information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

 
CNN chyron will read: Austere religious scholars and largely peaceful protestors indulge in some window shopping.



This stuff will play well for trump i think. You can see Biden's support is softening in recent polls, hopefully its the start of a trend and i got in early on a juicy line for the presidential. Already playing Rice for VP pick. Smoke signals on Harris dont look promising for her, though i still hope she gets the nod.

Currently dnc running on we are shit but we are not trump. Gop running on we are also shit but we are not insane.

Which will prevail?
 
When you lock down you have less deaths, but unless you lock down until vaccine the deaths will hit similar levels to Sweden as you ease restrictions.

This is why the deaths per million is not that great a measure, and why comparing neighbouring countries to Sweden until they hit herd immunity is meaningless.

Think that make sense but I don't think you have to reach our levels. We let a ton of old folks die without setting foot in a hospital. Like our hospitals didn't get overwhelmed but the timing of when our guidelines started dictating that old people probably was better off getting morphine then oxygen if they seemed sick and probably should stay where they were used to their enviorment rather then come to a hospital.

So yea, you might be right about infection rates that might hit the same levels at some point but I don't think countries with a slower rate of infection will hit the same death rates.

As a libertarian I think that some of the stuff the rest of the world does is dumb as shit, but we took some really weird decisions too.
 
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