Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Good news. It looks like it is Harris. For a while they're I thought the Biden campaign wasn't v as stupid as I imagined.

I don't think it's a template, as they include a quote and date. Well, we will see.

 

[rev0lver]

Good news. It looks like it is Harris. For a while they're I thought the Biden campaign wasn't v as stupid as I imagined.

I don't think it's a template, as they include a quote and date. Well, we will see.

I think it's weird to include a quote in a template, maybe just a placeholder for an actual quote & commentary. Like, "hey, this is an example of what we'll add in the eventual candidate's section" and accidentally published it. I kind of find it harder to believe the campaign would give an outlet his pick and speech without us hearing heavier chatter and it leaking all throughout the media. But of course wouldn't be surprised to see her be the pick.

 

[turbozed]

The politico announcement was retracted. They said they jumped the gun and it shouldn't have been published. Guess we'll find out soon enough what the truth is. But the market has reacted pretty strongly with Harris widening from +140 to -160. Some books like Dimes have even cut the line altogether.

 

[longway]

The politico announcement was retracted. They said they jumped the gun and it shouldn't have been published. Guess we'll find out soon enough what the truth is. But the market has reacted pretty strongly with Harris widening from +140 to -160. Some books like Dimes have even cut the line altogether.

I think it's weird to include a quote in a template, maybe just a placeholder for an actual quote & commentary. Like, "hey, this is an example of what we'll add in the eventual candidate's section" and accidentally published it. I kind of find it harder to believe the campaign would give an outlet his pick and speech without us hearing heavier chatter and it leaking all throughout the media. But of course wouldn't be surprised to see her be the pick.

Back in 2016 I remember an outlet, it could well have been politico, sent their articles to dnc for approval b4 being published. It does lend credence to them getting an inside track.

 

[rev0lver]

Back in 2016 I remember an outlet, it could well have been politico, sent their articles to dnc for approval b4 being published. It does lend credence to them getting an inside track.

Yeah but I'd say that's different, this would be a high-value knowledge leak that would spread around media circles like wildfire and leak to the public shortly thereafter. If the Biden campaign were collaborating with media orgs, it would make more sense to give them the name+taglines the day of the announcement to prevent that. Just seems kinda pointless that they would tell them so far in advance. If I were heavy on another person getting the VP pick I wouldn't put toooooo much stock in this and take advantage of line movement.

 

[Yotsuya]

Good news. It looks like it is Harris.

Here’s another not so important titbit from me: In Finnish ”kamala” means ”horrible”, so every time a Finn hears the name Kamala Harris it sounds like Horrible Harris. Well, at least it kind of rhymes. Good news for Democrats is, that much of the Finnish immigrant stock is die-hard Republican voting religious folks, so this choise won’t tip the scales too much.

 

[mkess101]

I think it's become pretty obvious that Trump feels this thing slipping away quickly. GDP numbers just released, the economy shrank a record amount (33%) last quarter. Not a surprise really given what's going on, but still horrible news for the incumbent. And he's now floating this out there...

"With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA," he wrote. "Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"

My understanding is that he has zero power to delay the election, so it's just bluster, but it shows he sees how things are heading.

My only action is a $200 bet with a co-worker ha ha. I have Biden. He was -120 at the books when I took the bet, so saved a bit in getting him at evens. I like my chances as of now...

 

[rev0lver]

I think it's become pretty obvious that Trump feels this thing slipping away quickly. GDP numbers just released, the economy shrank a record amount (33%) last quarter. Not a surprise really given what's going on, but still horrible news for the incumbent. And he's now floating this out there...

"With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA," he wrote. "Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"

My understanding is that he has zero power to delay the election, so it's just bluster, but it shows he sees how things are heading.

My only action is a $200 bet with a co-worker ha ha. I have Biden. He was -120 at the books when I took the bet, so saved a bit in getting him at evens. I like my chances as of now...

I don't think he's ever gonna admit he's behind until he loses, but internally I would imagine him & his team are very worried. His ONE thing to hold on to is the economy, but even if stock market numbers etc are good and improve, lots of voters are gonna realize they're still hurting and the economic positives he touts aren't really helping them. Maybe some big economic rebound can happen by October and give him a boost, but I wouldn't count on it with a now-undetermined end to covid closures.

I'm not worried about his ability to delay the election, but I think he'll keep dropping statements like this just to throw the eventual results into question. So that even if he does lose, he can make people believe he didn't really lose.

My biggest concern though is overconfidence from the dems. I still maintain this is the #1 issue that got Trump elected in 2016. People didn't take the prospect of Trump winning seriously, they stayed home or voted 3rd party because no one actually liked Hillary. No one's really excited for Biden either. But I think there will be enough anti-Trump votes this time around, as long as the dems don't try to tell everyone they have the election in the bag and not to worry.

I also have my bets outside of books lol. $500 with a coworker and another $100 with a friend. Love even odds.

 

[mkess101]

I don't think he's ever gonna admit he's behind until he loses, but internally I would imagine him & his team are very worried. His ONE thing to hold on to is the economy, but even if stock market numbers etc are good and improve, lots of voters are gonna realize they're still hurting and the economic positives he touts aren't really helping them. Maybe some big economic rebound can happen by October and give him a boost, but I wouldn't count on it with a now-undetermined end to covid closures.

I'm not worried about his ability to delay the election, but I think he'll keep dropping statements like this just to throw the eventual results into question. So that even if he does lose, he can make people believe he didn't really lose.

My biggest concern though is overconfidence from the dems. I still maintain this is the #1 issue that got Trump elected in 2016. People didn't take the prospect of Trump winning seriously, they stayed home or voted 3rd party because no one actually liked Hillary. No one's really excited for Biden either. But I think there will be enough anti-Trump votes this time around, as long as the dems don't try to tell everyone they have the election in the bag and not to worry.

I also have my bets outside of books lol. $500 with a coworker and another $100 with a friend. Love even odds.

I think you're spot on saying he's setting it up to contest the results. And I think he will, even if he loses in a landslide (that's not my prediction, I think the popular vote will be fairly decisive against him but the electoral college will be relatively close) he's gonna contest.

 

[longway]

I think it's become pretty obvious that Trump feels this thing slipping away quickly. GDP numbers just released, the economy shrank a record amount (33%) last quarter. Not a surprise really given what's going on, but still horrible news for the incumbent. And he's now floating this out there...

"With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA," he wrote. "Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"

My understanding is that he has zero power to delay the election, so it's just bluster, but it shows he sees how things are heading.

My only action is a $200 bet with a co-worker ha ha. I have Biden. He was -120 at the books when I took the bet, so saved a bit in getting him at evens. I like my chances as of now...

I don't know why the dnc is hellbent on mail in voting without bipartisan support, except if they do intend to cheat. Electoral rolls are grossly inaccurate and there is no chain of custody for each ballot. There are huge issues with mail-in voting that need to be addressed and mitigated for before widely adopting it.

It also plays into the hands of anyone, including the fabled rUsSiAnS, who want to delegitimise the result of the election, no matter who wins. Its a boneheaded idea, but par for the course for DNC.

AFAICS Trump is well behind, but I am still waiting for VP pick and actual campaigning to begin before I decide how and if I will play this time round. I made big mistakes already and want to assess properly as I don't want to lose more money. I certainly wouldn't take trump at even money, but would be willing to back Biden at even money, and then get some freeroll Trump action if things do change a bit.

 

[mkess101]

I don't know why the dnc is hellbent on mail in voting without bipartisan support, except if they do intend to cheat. Electoral rolls are grossly inaccurate and there is no chain of custody for each ballot. There are huge issues with mail-in voting that need to be addressed and mitigated for before widely adopting it.

It also plays into the hands of anyone, including the fabled rUsSiAnS, who want to delegitimise the result of the election, no matter who wins. Its a boneheaded idea, but par for the course for DNC.

AFAICS Trump is well behind, but I am still waiting for VP pick and actual campaigning to begin before I decide how and if I will play this time round. I made big mistakes already and want to assess properly as I don't want to lose more money. I certainly wouldn't take trump at even money, but would be willing to back Biden at even money, and then get some freeroll Trump action if things do change a bit.

I'd be lying if I said I knew anything at all about mail in voting.

I do think Trump is in real trouble as this pandemic won't be under control in time for the economy to rebound before the election. And that was where Trump's biggest advantage was.

It's far from over, things can still change, but every day that goes by with things how they currently are is bad news for Trump.

 

[rille31]

Wtf

 

[rev0lver]

I don't know why the dnc is hellbent on mail in voting without bipartisan support, except if they do intend to cheat. Electoral rolls are grossly inaccurate and there is no chain of custody for each ballot. There are huge issues with mail-in voting that need to be addressed and mitigated for before widely adopting it.

While I don't agree voter fraud is likely, at least on a broad scale, with mail-in ballots, I think there should be a genuine concern with processing the volume of mail-in ballots that is possible this year.

And it's hard to tell when politicians are being honest actors with it. Covid is a legitimate reason to expand mail-in voting. Dems also naturally benefit from easier and more widespread voting that mail-ins would create, while republicans would naturally be hurt by it. But as a result of that, whether it's Trump or Pelosi or whoever talking about the issue, I don't really trust how genuine their concern is in their talking points.

 

[TrueAscension]

I’m not quite sure why people can file and pay their taxes online but are unable to vote online...

It seems if you have a social security number and can prove you are who you say you are (there are many verification methods for this, just ask a new building that’s trying to rent you an apartment), you should be able to have the ability to vote online.

Either way Trump is completely cooked unless his Operation Warp Speed succeeds by the end of October and Americans cling to the possibility that only Trump can get a vaccine to every American by early 2021 whereas Biden wouldn’t.

I can definitely see that happening with recent developments in trials as well as the govt pledging billions for 100 million doses.

 

[mkess101]

I’m not quite sure why people can file and pay their taxes online but are unable to vote online...

It seems if you have a social security number and can prove you are who you say you are (there are many verification methods for this, just ask a new building that’s trying to rent you an apartment), you should be able to have the ability to vote online.

Either way Trump is completely cooked unless his Operation Warp Speed succeeds by the end of October and Americans cling to the possibility that only Trump can get a vaccine to every American by early 2021 whereas Biden wouldn’t.

I can definitely see that happening with recent developments in trials as well as the govt pledging billions for 100 million doses.

Is the world gonna dive headfirst into a vaccine that's rushed to market WAY faster than any before? No 5 year clinical trial, nothing. I realize this situation is way different than any in history but man, IDK.

Forget the loony anti vaccers, I think a lot of "normal" people are gonna be skeptical and apprehensive too.

 

[TrueAscension]

Is the world gonna dive headfirst into a vaccine that's rushed to market WAY faster than any before? No 5 year clinical trial, nothing. I realize this situation is way different than any in history but man, IDK.

Forget the loony anti vaccers, I think a lot of "normal" people are gonna be skeptical and apprehensive too.

if it means they can get their lives back together, I would guess so. I don’t really know much about it. I had CoVID so I wouldn’t take a vaccine but I’d imagine that the fact there is a vaccine would allow people to at least open the economy fully again and “normalize” living with CoVID. Right now it’s got a pretty media driven stigma attached to it. With a vaccine, i think most of that stigma would go away.

 

[mkess101]

if it means they can get their lives back together, I would guess so. I don’t really know much about it. I had CoVID so I wouldn’t take a vaccine but I’d imagine that the fact there is a vaccine would allow people to at least open the economy fully again and “normalize” living with CoVID. Right now it’s got a pretty media driven stigma attached to it. With a vaccine, i think most of that stigma would go away.

I think a lot will take it, but not sure it will be widely accepted like the flu shot. I think plenty of people are gonna want to see what happens with the first batch.

 

[TrueAscension]

I think a lot will take it, but not sure it will be widely accepted like the flu shot. I think plenty of people are gonna want to see what happens with the first batch.

agreed. I think it’ll be more of a perception thing that it’s under control.

 

[longway]

While I don't agree voter fraud is likely, at least on a broad scale, with mail-in ballots, I think there should be a genuine concern with processing the volume of mail-in ballots that is possible this year.

And it's hard to tell when politicians are being honest actors with it. Covid is a legitimate reason to expand mail-in voting. Dems also naturally benefit from easier and more widespread voting that mail-ins would create, while republicans would naturally be hurt by it. But as a result of that, whether it's Trump or Pelosi or whoever talking about the issue, I don't really trust how genuine their concern is in their talking points.

I dont know who benefits from mail in voting more. Arguably, trump benefits as mail in voting would help more older voters vote, which was until recently skewed in trumps favour. So why are democrats pushing for it so forcefully? It's asking for trouble on many fronts. All i can think is they think they can cheat.

 

[TrueAscension]

I dont know who benefits from mail in voting more. Arguably, trump benefits as mail in voting would help more older voters vote, which was until recently skewed in trumps favour. So why are democrats pushing for it so forcefully? It's asking for trouble on many fronts. All i can think is they think they can cheat.

Or that they want a good turnout which isn’t good for your boy.