Political Betting Thread

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longway said:
Thanks for the heads up. I took your advice, am going to reasses how to play this.
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I only just realized that most of those deaths yesterday were from new jersey, had a quick look and can't see why but i guess they were added to the list from suspected cases or something like that. there's been relatively few deaths from the latest day reported. so it might not be as bad as I thought, but it still seems pretty bad for trump. something to keep an eye on over the next few days.
 
Roads55 said:
I only just realized that most of those deaths yesterday were from new jersey, had a quick look and can't see why but i guess they were added to the list from suspected cases or something like that. there's been relatively few deaths from the latest day reported. so it might not be as bad as I thought, but it still seems pretty bad for trump. something to keep an eye on over the next few days.
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36 states reporting increase in cases though. Maybe some due to more testing but a lot of places with higher % of positives too. Unless there's a fast change in trajectory, tons of places are gonna have to back up the reopening plans. In my county we are in phase 2 of 4 but we are seeing a resurgence of positives so they may have to go back to phase 1.

Extrapolate that nationwide (won't be everywhere but will be in plenty of places) and the economy is gonna stall out.

Trump is in real trouble.
 
Roads55 said:
I only just realized that most of those deaths yesterday were from new jersey, had a quick look and can't see why but i guess they were added to the list from suspected cases or something like that. there's been relatively few deaths from the latest day reported. so it might not be as bad as I thought, but it still seems pretty bad for trump. something to keep an eye on over the next few days.
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Deaths are going down, but odds drifting badly, still kept 5u on, but things are too crazy to bet big at this stage.
 
mkess101 said:
36 states reporting increase in cases though. Maybe some due to more testing but a lot of places with higher % of positives too. Unless there's a fast change in trajectory, tons of places are gonna have to back up the reopening plans. In my county we are in phase 2 of 4 but we are seeing a resurgence of positives so they may have to go back to phase 1.

Extrapolate that nationwide (won't be everywhere but will be in plenty of places) and the economy is gonna stall out.

Trump is in real trouble.
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Prior the mantra was not enough testing, now that testing has been ramped up, a pre-requisite for re-opening, the mantra is a 'surge'.

Adjusting opening is exactly why they are testing, this actually allows opening without overwhelming the medical system. But for trump, fake news will fear monger endlessly.

If the obama llama was in charge fake news would have been explaining all this on his behalf. Problem is that there is no coherent messaging from wh to counter.

Just see his latest retweet gaffe, about one of his supporters shouting white power, unless its on purpose to divert from the fake news coming out about alleged russian antics in afghanistan.

But overall, for me, he is not communucating as well as he used to, he had a great signal to noise ratio, these days i feel he is being drowned out.

I still think (or hope) that in 2 months the worst will be behind us and will allow a more realistic appraisal of both candidates. But i really want the stock market crash sooner rather than later, if later then after nov 4.
 
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mkess101 said:
36 states reporting increase in cases though. Maybe some due to more testing but a lot of places with higher % of positives too. Unless there's a fast change in trajectory, tons of places are gonna have to back up the reopening plans. In my county we are in phase 2 of 4 but we are seeing a resurgence of positives so they may have to go back to phase 1.

Extrapolate that nationwide (won't be everywhere but will be in plenty of places) and the economy is gonna stall out.

Trump is in real trouble.
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100% there's definitely a large part of the increases as a result of more tests, the death rate's show that over the last few weeks, but by no means is it exclusively more testing. the knock on effects of more lockdown are not looking good for trump here.

longway said:
Deaths are going down, but odds drifting badly, still kept 5u on, but things are too crazy to bet big at this stage.
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yeah apart from that spike, they are but if there is even a small uptick on avg in the next few weeks which looks possible, then that is going to be really bad for him. but tbh i'm not sure this will even matter too much if trump keeps continuing like he is. the fact he hasn't said anything about that video he shared then deleted in a tweet with someone shouting "white power" is possibly in hindsight a gigantic moment we can pinpoint to if he loses the election. continued protests and sliding poll #'s, more lockdown are starting to look insurmountable to me when coupled with his dire communication skills and shaky ego. he's on the ropes right now.
 
Roads55 said:
100% there's definitely a large part of the increases as a result of more tests, the death rate's show that over the last few weeks, but by no means is it exclusively more testing. the knock on effects of more lockdown are not looking good for trump here.



yeah apart from that spike, they are but if there is even a small uptick on avg in the next few weeks which looks possible, then that is going to be really bad for him. but tbh i'm not sure this will even matter too much if trump keeps continuing like he is. the fact he hasn't said anything about that video he shared then deleted in a tweet with someone shouting "white power" is possibly in hindsight a gigantic moment we can pinpoint to if he loses the election. continued protests and sliding poll #'s, more lockdown are starting to look insurmountable to me when coupled with his dire communication skills and shaky ego. he's on the ropes right now.
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Im not denying things are not rough for him now, but the doom and gloom with the so called surge or 2nd wave is just fake news trying to drown out the fact the usa is re-opening with their usual hysteria and fear mongering, only difference is that, for once, the issue they are lying about is real. Number of cases will increase as you re open, but its irrelevant as long as health services can cope.

In a couple of months, none of this will matter, and they will be screaming about sonething else.

Its still a fragile situation, and things could break the wrong way for trump.

I agree that at this stage his communication is lacking, but dont pay too much attention to fake news 'mind reading' trumps mental state, the person they hate is a figment of their imaginations.
 
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longway said:
Im not denying things are not rough for him now, but the doom and gloom with the so called surge or 2nd wave is just fake news trying to drown out the fact the usa is re-opening with their usual hysteria and fear mongering, only difference is that, for once, the issue they are lying about is real. Number of cases will increase as you re open, but its irrelevant as long as health services can cope.

In a couple of months, none of this will matter, and they will be screaming about sonething else.

Its still a fragile situation, and things could break the wrong way for trump.

I agree that at this stage his communication is lacking, but dont pay too much attention to fake news 'mind reading' trumps mental state, the person they hate is a figment of their imaginations.
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Lol this same shit happened last time where friends of mine were telling me the Republican Party would implode when Trump won the primary heading into the convention. Polls are way off and either being manipulated through cherry picked voters or people don’t trust polling places because they don’t trust the media with data (most likely answer).

Lol a Fox News poll had Trump down 9 points in Florida, that is so laughably inaccurate.
 
"Doom and gloom is fake news" and "so called second wave" is such a Trump supporter thing to say. You're completely ignoring how erratic your boy is. Do you always bet on your favorite fighter and football team too even when they're clearly going to lose? If so, you should keep dropping "5 units" on him as his price improves and the fake news makes up more second wave stuff.

What a joke. I have CoVID and I can tell you that its no fucking walk in the park.
 
TrueAscension said:
"Doom and gloom is fake news" and "so called second wave" is such a Trump supporter thing to say. You're completely ignoring how erratic your boy is. Do you always bet on your favorite fighter and football team too even when they're clearly going to lose? If so, you should keep dropping "5 units" on him as his price improves and the fake news makes up more second wave stuff.

What a joke. I have CoVID and I can tell you that its no fucking walk in the park.
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Lol oh I’ll be making money on this election again, don’t you worry about that. Lol oh god, now the ridiculous COVID talk, people can have whatever beliefs on that but the way I’ve seen the media put the fear of death in people from that shit is ridiculous.

We’ll see what happens, I lost a little bit of cash early on with Kamala but made it all back and more when people didn’t think the DNC would fix the thing for Biden. This is all the same ridiculous poll shit I saw last time when people said there was a zero percent chance Trump would win. Hillary people were so confident they were pulling DC leases prior to even winning the election.
 
I don't see how it's remotely the same as 2016. biden's lead is way bigger than hillary's and the amount the polls that were off in 2016 would by no means make all that close as things stand today.
 
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Joedaman55 said:
Lol oh I’ll be making money on this election again, don’t you worry about that. Lol oh god, now the ridiculous COVID talk, people can have whatever beliefs on that but the way I’ve seen the media put the fear of death in people from that shit is ridiculous.

We’ll see what happens, I lost a little bit of cash early on with Kamala but made it all back and more when people didn’t think the DNC would fix the thing for Biden. This is all the same ridiculous poll shit I saw last time when people said there was a zero percent chance Trump would win. Hillary people were so confident they were pulling DC leases prior to even winning the election.
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I have CoVID. It’s no joke. I only pray you don’t find that out for yourself.

Oh and guess what Hillary isn’t running. Drop your roll on trump I dare ya. All 500 bucks of it
 
TrueAscension said:
I have CoVID. It’s no joke. I only pray you don’t find that out for yourself.

Oh and guess what Hillary isn’t running. Drop your roll on trump I dare ya. All 500 bucks of it
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Lol I have zero worry if I get COVID and it wouldn’t shock me if I already had it. Had people I know have it and they couldn’t tell any difference from their normal life.

Lol Hillary was a stronger candidate than Biden. Hilarious how people talk shit about bankrolls on here, anyone that has serious money should NEVER be trying to profit on gambling politics or MMA over stocks, it should strictly be a hobby. But if you like Biden, bet it, I can see the logic but it’s a losing bet in my opinion.
 
TrueAscension said:
"Doom and gloom is fake news" and "so called second wave" is such a Trump supporter thing to say. You're completely ignoring how erratic your boy is. Do you always bet on your favorite fighter and football team too even when they're clearly going to lose? If so, you should keep dropping "5 units" on him as his price improves and the fake news makes up more second wave stuff.

What a joke. I have CoVID and I can tell you that its no fucking walk in the park.
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Im only ignoring bs, you are not.

Go to the link and look at new deaths graphs. As long as that is not spiking, number of cases is irrelevant. Also look at tests per million, which is very high, also look at deaths per million by state and you will see who has really failed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The so called spike is a function of way more testing and re-opening, more cases cant be avoided, but if usa remains closed you are fcuked. There is no way around it.

I had 20u on trump and pulled out 15u, so basically you are mouthing off without knowing the full picture, just like you are about trump. There is no erratic behaviour, thats just propaganda.

Good luck, hope you pull thru unscathed. I have a suspicion i caught it in late jan, along with my wife and little boy, but at that time we didnt know much about covid. We were all sick, esp my little boy.

I think your post encapsulates why trumps disapproval is so high. You are lashing out blindly based on the fake news narrative.

Fake news is filled with glee that more people are sick and love to fear monger off it. Its just politics to them. They are even trying to revive the trump virus branding, which he successfully fought off early on in pandemic. The sooner you understand that the media and politicians view all this as a game the better.

You think killary or biden could have prevented you from catching covid? Nothing can, most of us are going to get infected, unless you hide in your house until vaccine. I cant, i have to work.
 
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Joedaman55 said:
Lol I have zero worry if I get COVID and it wouldn’t shock me if I already had it. Had people I know have it and they couldn’t tell any difference from their normal life.

Lol Hillary was a stronger candidate than Biden. Hilarious how people talk shit about bankrolls on here, anyone that has serious money should NEVER be trying to profit on gambling politics or MMA over stocks, it should strictly be a hobby. But if you like Biden, bet it, I can see the logic but it’s a losing bet in my opinion.
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I pulled 95% of my money out about a month ago, i can sleep at night now. Lol
Im just waiting for the excess liquidity to flush its way out of the stock markets, central banks shot their wads way too early imo.
At some point the markets will have to contend with reality, then i will have my buying opportunity.
 
Joedaman55 said:
Lol I have zero worry if I get COVID and it wouldn’t shock me if I already had it. Had people I know have it and they couldn’t tell any difference from their normal life.

Lol Hillary was a stronger candidate than Biden. Hilarious how people talk shit about bankrolls on here, anyone that has serious money should NEVER be trying to profit on gambling politics or MMA over stocks, it should strictly be a hobby. But if you like Biden, bet it, I can see the logic but it’s a losing bet in my opinion.
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it's a pretty big stretch to say hillary was a stronger candidate than biden, in some ways she is and in many she absolutely isn't. why should ppl who have "serious money" not be on politics or mma? shit's way more entertaining than staring at stock graphs all day, and it is easier to spot value on.

Joedaman55 said:
Lol, think so, I’m seeing similar trends.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html#polls
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what do you mean? in 2016 trump was getting more and more popular in florida that's literally the opposite of what is happening now.
 
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longway said:
I pulled 95% of my money out about a month ago, i can sleep at night now. Lol
Im just waiting for the excess liquidity to flush its way out of the stock markets, central banks shot their wads way too early imo.
At some point the markets will have to contend with reality, then i will have my buying opportunity.
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The boat to make incredible money in stocks was about 3-4 months ago. It is still an incredible good market to buy. People should not be holding onto cash now, if my wife wasn’t so risk averse I would have bet everything I had 4 months ago on this one stock and been set for life in about 4 more months. If you’re trying to make money I’d reassess your strategy.
 
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