Political Betting Thread

[Sono07]

Nothing crazy but I've got $50 on Sanders at -225, seems like he draws a younger demographic.

 

[longway]

Latest cnn/dmr poll will not be released. On one hand that must mean bernie is surging, so looks real bad for my bet.


On the other it means dnc is preparing the ground to cheat, so looking good for my bet.

Update:
Its due to an objection from the buttigieg campaign, well thats the official story.

 

[longway]

Nothing crazy but I've got $50 on Sanders at -225, seems like he draws a younger demographic.

Unless dnc cheats your bet looks good.

 

[Roads55]

Latest cnn/dmr poll will not be released. On one hand that must mean bernie is surging, so looks real bad for my bet.


On the other it means dnc is preparing the ground to cheat, so looking good for my bet.

Update:
Its due to an objection from the buttigieg campaign, well thats the official story.

feels a little too convenient to me...

 

[Roads55]

potential extra voter group for bernie:

https://iowastartingline.com/2020/0...-sanders-service-worker-strategy-to-win-iowa/

i can see them doing this nationwide too

 

[longway]

potential extra voter group for bernie:

https://iowastartingline.com/2020/0...-sanders-service-worker-strategy-to-win-iowa/

i can see them doing this nationwide too

Christ, I am so regretting my bet. At these odds, it's not really worth taking the opposite side, may as well just hope for the best.

 

[rev0lver]

potential extra voter group for bernie:

https://iowastartingline.com/2020/0...-sanders-service-worker-strategy-to-win-iowa/

i can see them doing this nationwide too

The political strategy of the Sanders campaign is top notch. I still don't have 100% confidence he'll pull it out, but they're running their campaign the exact kind of way I've been hoping to see. Reaffirms my belief that he'll outperform polling in most states with turnout among young people and traditionally apathetic voter bases.

 

[rev0lver]

Seeing a lot of info that Warren could have the secret edge in caucuses today as she performs well in second-round voting. It makes sense, and could be worth throwing something small on her considering her line. But I don't expect Sanders supporters to budge very much in round 2. MAYBE in some cases where they could either be forced to choose Warren or let Biden win. But if we see at least 4 candidates hit the threshold in most caucus locations, I don't think that circumstance would happen enough for her.

 

[Roads55]

As predicted trumps odds shortening to sub 1.8 now, currently around 1.77, can go a little lower after most of the republican primaries go uncontested.

 

[Roads55]

Sanders getting smashed outright and in iowa.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/biden-allies-lower-expectations/ar-BBZC395

 

[Roads55]

Dumping my Biden position he's a sinking ship as it stands right now

 

[Joedaman55]

Dumping my Biden position he's a sinking ship as it stands right now

I wouldn’t go too crazy, Iowa has a demographic that is brutal for Biden. Pete and Warren looking good, poll numbers look way off so far.

 

[Roads55]

I wouldn’t go too crazy, Iowa has a demographic that is brutal for Biden. Pete and Warren looking good, poll numbers look way off so far.

yea, already bet him a little at bigger odds of 5.0 still got some profit on him

 

[longway]

DNC trying out a new app for the Iowa caucus, and they are not releasing any details about the app. Its almost as if they want to have a lack of transparency which is sure to breed distrust but just dgaf. Anyway, I am sure it will all be fine.

https://www.uspresidentialelectionn...eporting-app-could-spell-chaos-for-democrats/

 

[Joedaman55]

yea, already bet him a little at bigger odds of 5.0 still got some profit on him

I’d hold off because I think he’ll lose Iowa and NH. That’s when he’ll be best to bet because people will over react. Caucuses are a terrible predictor but political people liked to really get hyped up off of Iowa even though it’s not a winner take all and a historically bad predictor.

 

[Roads55]

I’d hold off because I think he’ll lose Iowa and NH. That’s when he’ll be best to bet because people will over react. Caucuses are a terrible predictor but political people liked to really get hyped up off of Iowa even though it’s not a winner take all and a historically bad predictor.

im just playing the movement in odds, but overall most of my position i dumped.

 

[Roads55]

what a shitshow this is

 

[Roads55]

i was watching cnn's coverage while they were waiting to find out wtf is going on, then this happened while on the phone to one of the precinct secretary's : fucking hilarious

 

[Joedaman55]

i was watching cnn's coverage while they were waiting to find out wtf is going on, then this happened while on the phone to one of the precinct secretary's : fucking hilarious

This is truly something else, Trump’s having a field day with these results.

 

[Roads55]

Buttigieg claiming victory in his speech, i've never seen so many token black people in the background in all my life..