Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Bernie's getting bet fairly hard over the last couple hours, he just went favorite on betfair.. @ 3.2, got some cash down at 3.55 and layed biden at 3.0 who's now 3.25

I think its an outlier, other polls on overlapping time periods dont show a similar shift.

 

[Roads55]

I think its an outlier, other polls on overlapping time periods dont show a similar shift.

could be, but we'll have to wait and see i guess, the last cnn poll had biden up by 6, and the one before that in november biden was up by 11

odds have already gone back to what they were earlier

 

[rev0lver]

I think its an outlier, other polls on overlapping time periods dont show a similar shift.

Not sure why the CNN poll was different. I thought they might be oversampling young people, but Monmouth (showing Biden+7) seemed to have a more even distribution than most polls in terms of age. The candidate numbers themselves aren't wildly different though, so it's not that much of an outlier.

Regardless, there were 3 polls released today showing Sanders at 23%, 24%, and 27%. 8-of-11 national polls released in January had Sanders over 20%, compared to December where that number was 11-of-24. His numbers could still be going up, and the brutal attacks (or attempted attacks) he's faced leading up to Iowa are either not working or turning in his favor.

 

[Roads55]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

looks like sanders is establishing a decent lead in NH now, that will be a nice momentum booster if he does take iowa.

 

[longway]

Nice to see the unfair attacks on him backfiring, he is now being smeared as a racist, this is just the start though. But, unless he gets a majority, it won't matter, he will be torpedoed at the convention.

 

[Roads55]

@longway

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51245211

there's been a big surge in labour party members since the election, apparently most joined to vote against the left candidates and want someone more moderate, that's bad news for long bailey. the voting is different to normal as it's "AV" but it looks like this won't matter too much if these new members vote to the center.

 

[longway]

@longway

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51245211

there's been a big surge in labour party members since the election, apparently most joined to vote against the left candidates and want someone more moderate, that's bad news for long bailey. the voting is different to normal as it's "AV" but it looks like this won't matter too much if these new members vote to the center.

Good info. Thanks for that.

 

[Roads55]

bernie is now favorite again, down to 2.8 on betfair

https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

 

[rev0lver]

Last two major polls of Iowa showing Bernie Sanders with a +1 and +7 lead. Last three major polls of New Hampshire showing him with a +5, +9, and +12 lead. This is getting real now, and I stand by what I've said before that polls may underestimate his turnout by a few %.

I'm not entirely sold that the momentum can bridge his gap with Biden in every state where he needs it, but I now firmly believe Sanders will win the first two states. Worth pointing out that only two candidates in the past 50 years, from either party, have lost both Iowa and NH and went on to win the primary (Clinton '92, McGovern '72)

 

[Roads55]

seems like bernie's iowa gains came at the expense of warren, but the des moines register just endorsed warren which historically gives the candidate a reasonable boost in the polls, these gains seem to be part of a wider increase for biden also so it's happening both on the state level and on the national level which is going to be important to note going forward, especially if warren doesn't win here. i think she needs to come second or else she will be in danger or the bleeding support turning into a steady stream. Biden hasn't really picked up any extra support bt as he stand he would benefit greatly from a warren boost from this endorsement i think.

 

[Roads55]

also we haven't really seen a candidate regain lost momentum, seems like warren may be going the pete route and essentially going all in on iowa in an attempt to do this else she will continue to fade and give her supporters to bernie. we could see a slew of late endorsements for her or at least some favorable media coverage in the coming week as an attempt to stifle bernie's upward trajectory.

 

[longway]

Last two major polls of Iowa showing Bernie Sanders with a +1 and +7 lead.

Is the USA today poll not considered major? Not challenging you, but just asking.

The odds against Bernie winning the Iowa primary are +157. I think this is the value side. The polls indicate Biden has a good a chance as Sanders, but I don't have any knowledge of how the ground game works, so could be a bad bet. Seems to be quite a bit of Bernie hype in that line though. Also, like the fact that Bernie is tied up in the senate and has to rely on surrogates to fire people up.

Looking at the 538 simulations, Biden and Bernie are essentially neck and neck in Iowa, where each has a 36 and 35% chance of winning the most delegates respectively.

 

[longway]

DNC trying out a new app for the Iowa caucus, and they are not releasing any details about the app. Its almost as if they want to have a lack of transparency which is sure to breed distrust but just dgaf. Anyway, I am sure it will all be fine.

https://www.uspresidentialelectionn...eporting-app-could-spell-chaos-for-democrats/

Cybersecurity experts interviewed by NPR said that the party’s decision to withhold the technical details of its app doesn’t do much to protect the system — and instead makes it hard to have complete confidence in it.

“The idea of security through obscurity is almost always a mistake,” says Doug Jones, a computer science professor at the University of Iowa and a former caucus precinct leader. “Drawing the blinds on the process leaves us, in the public, in a position where we can’t even assess the competence of the people doing something on our behalf.”

 

[longway]

https://emersonpolling.reportablene...tatus-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability

Emerson poll confirming Sanders recent upward momentum. Another interesting development is Klobuchar looking like she is sucking support from Buttigieg. I've added a little on her on Betfair, her current odds are a steal if she hits 15% in Iowa during the caucus.

 

[rev0lver]

Is the USA today poll not considered major? Not challenging you, but just asking.

The odds against Bernie winning the Iowa primary are +157. I think this is the value side. The polls indicate Biden has a good a chance as Sanders, but I don't have any knowledge of how the ground game works, so could be a bad bet. Seems to be quite a bit of Bernie hype in that line though. Also, like the fact that Bernie is tied up in the senate and has to rely on surrogates to fire people up.

Looking at the 538 simulations, Biden and Bernie are essentially neck and neck in Iowa, where each has a 36 and 35% chance of winning the most delegates respectively.

Didn't see the USA Today poll till after I posted that, RCP didn't add it till today. But now we have that Emerson poll giving him a +9. I do think the value is on his side, and considering his high potential to bring out new voters and young voters who carry lower weight in polling, I'd give him the edge even if he's 2-3% behind in the averages.

 

[Roads55]

https://emersonpolling.reportablene...tatus-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability

Emerson poll confirming Sanders recent upward momentum. Another interesting development is Klobuchar looking like she is sucking support from Buttigieg. I've added a little on her on Betfair, her current odds are a steal if she hits 15% in Iowa during the caucus.

also interesting is that biden is seemingly taking none of those votes when i'd expect him to at least get a little boost. i think this combined with the sanders train is why bloomberg is shortening so much(even if i think it's completely irrational). he's like 7/1 now, far too short considering he's not really improved that much in the polls and could well fade some after iowa/nh as he's not on the ballot there.

 

[longway]

also interesting is that biden is seemingly taking none of those votes when i'd expect him to at least get a little boost. i think this combined with the sanders train is why bloomberg is shortening so much(even if i think it's completely irrational). he's like 7/1 now, far too short considering he's not really improved that much in the polls and could well fade some after iowa/nh as he's not on the ballot there.

I can only guess that those Buttigieg supporters who are willing to switch are looking for a younger articulate candidate. I still think the value side is Biden, as, if Klobuchar and Buttigieg don't reach the 15% threshold, then, iiuc, voters caucusing for them can switch, and Biden is their natural alternate as I think Warren now leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.

Please let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

 

[Roads55]

I can only guess that those Buttigieg supporters who are willing to switch are looking for a younger articulate candidate. I still think the value side is Biden, as, if Klobuchar and Buttigieg don't reach the 15% threshold, then, iiuc, voters caucusing for them can switch, and Biden is their natural alternate as I think Warren now leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.

Please let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

could be the value's on biden but im not so sure bernie's momentum has peaked yet. I have a suspicion he is more ahead in iowa than the biden leaning polls suggest. keeping an open mind but trying to add a little to sanders for the nomination. im not keen on betting much on iowa atm though. could change closer to the day. NH seems like he should win pretty handily though. possible that warren doesn't hit 15% too so in that case bernie would probably benefit more from that.

 

[rev0lver]

I can only guess that those Buttigieg supporters who are willing to switch are looking for a younger articulate candidate. I still think the value side is Biden, as, if Klobuchar and Buttigieg don't reach the 15% threshold, then, iiuc, voters caucusing for them can switch, and Biden is their natural alternate as I think Warren now leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.

Please let me know if I have misunderstood the process.

It's such a weird process and I don't know why it still exists in 2020.

Considering how contentious this primary is and how many variables there are, a lot of different things could happen at each caucus location. If a Klobuchar or Buttigieg doesn't reach 15%, they're not necessarily out, but one group could migrate to the other group in round 2 to push them over 15%. So they're not necessarily going to Biden. They can also abstain from the second round if they're really set on their choice.

It's also possible that Warren supporters (and maybe even some Yang supporters) could migrate over to the Sanders group to push a progressive if it becomes clear their candidate won't make it and the others are trying to rally around a single moderate. I'm not really sure how much switching is going to happen though. I haven't looked into the history of people's behavior at these things that deeply. But I wouldn't think many people go into these things with the idea of voting for someone other than their #1.

 

[longway]

It's such a weird process and I don't know why it still exists in 2020.

Considering how contentious this primary is and how many variables there are, a lot of different things could happen at each caucus location. If a Klobuchar or Buttigieg doesn't reach 15%, they're not necessarily out, but one group could migrate to the other group in round 2 to push them over 15%. So they're not necessarily going to Biden. They can also abstain from the second round if they're really set on their choice.

It's also possible that Warren supporters (and maybe even some Yang supporters) could migrate over to the Sanders group to push a progressive if it becomes clear their candidate won't make it and the others are trying to rally around a single moderate. I'm not really sure how much switching is going to happen though. I haven't looked into the history of people's behavior at these things that deeply. But I wouldn't think many people go into these things with the idea of voting for someone other than their #1.

Thanks for the info. I still think that the value side is Biden, as a caucus looks pretty unpredictable. Sanders current odds imply he will win 75% of the time, I cant see how that is realistic. I wish I had waited to bet the field as it now at +200 and I went in at +150.

A lot of plausible scenarios, but the DNC is openly at war with Sanders, and they have a lot of incentive to prevent a Sanders win. He will win NH and has a good shot at Nevada. Curtailing him at Iowa is essential for any strategy with the objective to prevent Sanders from becoming the eventual nominee. The Iowa system looks weird and more amenable to gaming than other primaries.

In a court case on the lack of fairness in DNC primaries, their defence was, as a private company, they are under no obligation to make it fair. All they want is plausible deniability. The corporate media aka fake news will look the other way as well.

Stuck another unit on 'Field' as Iowa winner at +200. I hope I am reading this one right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

The 538 forecast, whatever its worth, still has biden and Sanders neck and neck with a 35% and 36% chance winning respectively.

Already regretting adding the unit. You can only rely on biden and dnc to be incompetent, not competent. I can only hope that their lack of morals will make up for their lack of ability.