Political Betting Thread

[Joedaman55]

After the debate, with the help of CNN, she went out her way to create a little scene with Bernie. Barren is vile.



You guys still think that there that dnc will allow bernie to win?

No way Bernie or Warren win with the dnc running things.

 

[Joedaman55]

Barren is a snake. I guess she will be bidens vp pick.

Na, it’ll be someone moderate with color, I think the guy who ran in Florida would be a strong pick, can’t remember his name.

 

[longway]

Na, it’ll be someone moderate with color, I think the guy who ran in Florida would be a strong pick, can’t remember his name.

Wouldn't be surprised if they screw her over, after all who would want that kind of slimebag as a running mate. 1023/1024 snake.

 

[longway]

Anyone having a punt on the uk labour party leadership contest?

I missed the best line, but threw a unit on long bailey. I have a feeling her odds will still improve.

Reasons:

She is a woman and id politics demands labour have a woman leader at this juncture.

She is the preferred successor for the crazed momentum wing and they will never give up power without a vicious struggle.

I expect engineered hit jobs on Keir's candidacy based on some kind of metoo claptrap.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

 

[rev0lver]

I think the Warren-Bernie debacle is blowing up in CNN and Warren's face. People distrustful of orgs like CNN already, now this actually creates solidarity between Trump and Bernie's bases lol. Will be interesting to see if/how the MSM changes their tune on Bernie if he wins the nomination.

I'm gaining a lot of confidence in Bernie's chances now, but Biden's still in the best position. This will definitely be much more competitive than 2016, at least.

Pete has passed his peak. Looks like the attacks on him have finally worked. Wouldn't say he's totally out of the Iowa+NH races (though his wild fluctuations in NH polling is still weird to me). But the fact that he might not win either state, and has hardly made any progress nationally or in any other state, tells me his chances are very slim.

 

[longway]

I'm gaining a lot of confidence in Bernie's chances now, but Biden's still in the best position. This will definitely be much more competitive than 2016, at least.

There was clear collusion between CNN and Barren, this wasn't just normal political gamesmanship, she wanted to destroy Bernie. I can only surmise she has been promised something by the DNC. She knows she has no chance herself, and she must have been shown that Bernie has no chance either, otherwise, she would have hedged her bets and hoped to piggyback a VP slot by pledging her delegates to Bernie.

Pete has passed his peak. Looks like the attacks on him have finally worked.

I agree, I was hoping for something special from Pete here, but there was nothing. He may get a boost if he wins Iowa or something, but he did nothing for himself here. I thought that Klobuchar fulfils the role that Pete wants to fill. I finally see why some people rate her, I'd never support her, but I can see her being a good VP pick. Unfortunately, she is overshadowed by Biden, so can't win this cycle, but could become a contender in a future cycle.

I think the Warren-Bernie debacle is blowing up in CNN and Warren's face.

It's interesting how every time Barren makes what she perceives to be a big move, she always falls flat on her face. This alone is disqualifying for being prez, judgement is everything for this job and her judgement is terrible.

 

[Roads55]

Anyone having a punt on the uk labour party leadership contest?

I missed the best line, but threw a unit on long bailey. I have a feeling her odds will still improve.

Reasons:

She is a woman and id politics demands labour have a woman leader at this juncture.

She is the preferred successor for the crazed momentum wing and they will never give up power without a vicious struggle.

I expect engineered hit jobs on Keir's candidacy based on some kind of metoo claptrap.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

been betting it very small, mainly on starmer and hedged with bailey, the trouble is research for me, compared to US politics that seemingly has an endless variety of podcasts, news, forums etc, the labor leadership contest just seems incredibly mind numbing to have to go through paper after paper reading up on it. the contest is in april i think, so plenty of time to get up to date on it. hopefully there's some decent podcasts i can find that cover it.

 

[Aldo4Ever]

Pelosi was on Maher last night. I noticed some of her lines about 2020 were exactly the same as Biden's, word-for-word.

 

[Roads55]

looks like pete's goose is almost cooked, lack of movement in his national polls has made his chances even smaller even if he wins iowa, I don't get why bloomberg's odds are so short atm, the odds seem to overate his chances considering the unknowns about how his strategy will work. interestingly he hasn't really moved in the polls much either lately but his odds have shortened.

warren needs to finish ahead of bernie in iowa/NH or she's going to be facing an untenable position given how she's the other top "progressive" candidate. and it doesn't look like she's done enough in the last couple weeks to stand out and make a concerted attempt to reverse her downward momentum.

 

[rev0lver]

I don't get why bloomberg's odds are so short atm, the odds seem to overate his chances considering the unknowns about how his strategy will work. interestingly he hasn't really moved in the polls much either lately but his odds have shortened.

I don't get it either. I think there's some media influence going on there. Was talking with my parents the other night (who purely get their news from MSNBC+CNN) and they're convinced that if Bloomberg can win Iowa/NH it can carry his momentum forward to win the nomination. They also think a lot of voters who haven't been sold on the current frontrunners will turn to Bloomberg. This is of course all despite the fact that Bloomberg has among the highest disapproval ratings in the field and polls dead last in the early states. Makes no sense. Bloomberg's promise to pump money into the eventual nominee may be important, but it doesn't seem like you can just buy your way into an election anymore. He's moved ahead of Pete in the odds, and as much as I've said I don't believe in Pete's chances, I'd give Pete like 10x the chance of winning compared to Bloomberg.

 

[rev0lver]

In other news, Hillary Clinton completely trashed Bernie Sanders less than two weeks from Iowa. Should give Sanders another little boost and improve his standing more with independents+Trump supporters.

 

[Roads55]

I don't get it either. I think there's some media influence going on there. Was talking with my parents the other night (who purely get their news from MSNBC+CNN) and they're convinced that if Bloomberg can win Iowa/NH it can carry his momentum forward to win the nomination. They also think a lot of voters who haven't been sold on the current frontrunners will turn to Bloomberg. This is of course all despite the fact that Bloomberg has among the highest disapproval ratings in the field and polls dead last in the early states. Makes no sense. Bloomberg's promise to pump money into the eventual nominee may be important, but it doesn't seem like you can just buy your way into an election anymore. He's moved ahead of Pete in the odds, and as much as I've said I don't believe in Pete's chances, I'd give Pete like 10x the chance of winning compared to Bloomberg.

yeah, he's not even running in the early states like iowa/nh, he's all in on super tuesday

 

[longway]

In other news, Hillary Clinton completely trashed Bernie Sanders less than two weeks from Iowa. Should give Sanders another little boost and improve his standing more with independents+Trump supporters.

She is the gift that keeps on giving. But Sanders just apologised for his surrogates talking about Biden’s corruption. The dnc are openly at war with him, but he still keeps defending them.

looks like pete's goose is almost cooked, lack of movement in his national polls has made his chances even smaller even if he wins iowa, I don't get why bloomberg's odds are so short atm, the odds seem to overate his chances considering the unknowns about how his strategy will work. interestingly he hasn't really moved in the polls much either lately but his odds have shortened.

warren needs to finish ahead of bernie in iowa/NH or she's going to be facing an untenable position given how she's the other top "progressive" candidate. and it doesn't look like she's done enough in the last couple weeks to stand out and make a concerted attempt to reverse her downward momentum.

Your hypothesis that he is betting on himself is very plausible imo.

 

[longway]

Just put a bit on hitlery, just in case there is something going on behind the scenes, she has been inserted or inserted herself into the newscycle somewhat arbitarily.

 

[Roads55]

Your hypothesis that he is betting on himself is very plausible imo.

lol, well i didn't want to seem to be pushing a conspiracy theory but it's not that far fetched.

Just put a bit on hitlery, just in case there is something going on behind the scenes, she has been inserted or inserted herself into the newscycle somewhat arbitarily.

yeah im hedging a little on hillary, she's my biggest liability, so it frees up some bankroll, and i guess if something is going on or happens then it covers that possibility a bit.
it's endorsement season though, i don't remember if she's endorsed anyone yet but that could be why she's being more vocal now. seems to b backfiring a bit though.

 

[Roads55]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/22/politics/cnn-poll-sanders-biden-january-national/index.html

woah, new CNN poll (YES CNN!!!) has sanders ahead of Biden, that's a pretty big result for bernie

 

[TrueAscension]

yeah, he's not even running in the early states like iowa/nh, he's all in on super tuesday

I was in Iowa 2 weeks ago and Bloomberg ads were running nearly non stop. His approach is clear. Wait for the Dems to thin themselves by cannibalizing each other, spend money fighting Trump in his ads, etc and then debate the actual issues. The Dems got started way too early

 

[Roads55]

I was in Iowa 2 weeks ago and Bloomberg ads were running nearly non stop. His approach is clear. Wait for the Dems to thin themselves by cannibalizing each other, spend money fighting Trump in his ads, etc and then debate the actual issues. The Dems got started way too early

yeah i get his angle, but i just don't think enough people will buy his schtick. and so far he hasn't showed much interest in debating the issues the other candidates are, at least not from what i've seen.

the iowa adds were on local tv i guess? that's interesting given he's not even running there. although that could be part of his attempt to raise the prices for other candidates.

 

[Roads55]

Bernie's getting bet fairly hard over the last couple hours, he just went favorite on betfair.. @ 3.2, got some cash down at 3.55 and layed biden at 3.0 who's now 3.25

 

[TrueAscension]

yeah i get his angle, but i just don't think enough people will buy his schtick. and so far he hasn't showed much interest in debating the issues the other candidates are, at least not from what i've seen.

the iowa adds were on local tv i guess? that's interesting given he's not even running there. although that could be part of his attempt to raise the prices for other candidates.

I'm not sure if they were local but I haven't seen anything like them in NY which is an automatic dem state so perhaps he doesn't feel the need to run ads here yet. He's obviously after delegate votes and focused on issues. Anyways, anyone that got him at 50-100:1 placed a smart wager whether it cashes or not.