Political Betting Thread

[Aldo4Ever]

New Des Moines Register Iowa poll out one hour ago. Biden stuck in place and can't get any momentum. At risk of getting zero delegates in Iowa.

This is the poll that Mark Shields calls "the gold standard" of Iowa polling.

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Debate prediction: it's going to be a shitshow. Steyer is going to throw bombs. Klobuchar will probably throw bombs. Someone will probably go after Sanders. Someone will probably go after Biden for the Iraq War vote.

I think a lot of people are assuming Buttigieg is done for right now. That's dumb. He's only 4% behind the leader in the DMR poll. All he has to do on Tuesday is be the adult in the room. I still think he has a great shot of winning Iowa.

 

[Roads55]

New Des Moines Register Iowa poll out one hour ago. Biden stuck in place and can't get any momentum. At risk of getting zero delegates in Iowa.

This is the poll that Mark Shields calls "the gold standard" of Iowa polling.

==============

Debate prediction: it's going to be a shitshow. Steyer is going to throw bombs. Klobuchar will probably throw bombs. Someone will probably go after Sanders. Someone will probably go after Biden for the Iraq War vote.

I think a lot of people are assuming Buttigieg is done for right now. That's dumb. He's only 4% behind the leader in the DMR poll. All he has to do on Tuesday is be the adult in the room. I still think he has a great shot of winning Iowa.

i just woke up, im assuming this is why sanders has gone favorite? that's pretty big

 

[Aldo4Ever]

i just woke up, im assuming this is why sanders has gone favorite? that's pretty big

Didn't check the lines but yes that would be the reason. A lot of MSM commentators hold this poll is very high regard.

 

[longway]

Debate prediction: it's going to be a shitshow.

I will go further: it will be a bloodbath.

I hope so anyway. Getting the popcorn ready for this one.

 

[Aldo4Ever]

Also from the DMR poll:

Sanders' supporters are more likely than those who support the other leading candidates to say their minds are made up (59%), and they are “extremely” enthusiastic about their candidate (49%). Just 32% of Warren's supporters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic, and 26% each for Biden and Buttigieg.​

....

As he did in November, Buttigieg tallied the largest universe of potential supporters, with 60% saying they are considering him in some capacity. That includes the 16% who name him as their first choice for president, the 15% who say he is their second choice, and 29% who are actively considering him.​

 

[Aldo4Ever]

July 3

The dynamics of this race are more complicated than any race I can recall. This race appears very different to me than the 2015/6 Republican primary in terms of lacking a clear front-runner. I think Buttigieg is the only candidate with the potential to break away from the pack.

Eh, I think it’s pretty similar to the 2015-2016 Republican primary, there is just no top tier candidates like Trump (although most people thought differently at the time, prolly still do now).

Bro, don't you think this race is super complicated?

 

[Aldo4Ever]

Ah, I was wondering what Biden was up to today. He went to Nevada, the third-voting state. Smart move imo. His polling lead there is small.

His campaign is probably planning for a scenario in which he loses both IA and NH. Nevada is the third state. There is something about losing three states in a row that will tend to fuel a national media narrative that he's not a winner and could lead to a serious under-performance in SC and on Super Tuesday.

I have to say, Biden's campaign has been strong overall. He will lose, but he has put up a much better fight than I expected.

 

[longway]

I've been to understand that this is real.

 

[TrueAscension]

Trumps Iran move was genius. He knew the plane was shot down, made Iran shoot missiles at nothing, exercised restraint and reiterated he wants no war, and now the Iranians are marching in the street for a revolution.

 

[Joedaman55]

July 3





Bro, don't you think this race is super complicated?

At this stage, no, I’m pretty confident Biden will win. Back then, it was very complicated. What’s changed: Biden looked poor in debates and it didn’t matter because there was no stand out, Harris destroyed her own chances, Pete has probably peaked and can’t go further than winning middle America, the socialism movement doesn’t have as much momentum.

People are hyping Bernie but I think his results will be similar to last year.

 

[longway]

Right on cue, fake news starts smearing Bernie with their usual tropes of misogyny. Its all so predictable. Warren onboard with the smears as she is a morally bankrupt opportunist at the end.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/13/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-meeting/index.html

.
Bernie Sanders told Elizabeth Warren in private 2018 meeting that a woman can't win, sources say

Monmouth poll shows Biden in the lead in Iowa with 24%. Followed by Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Warren 15%, and Klobuchar at 8%.


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_011320/

 

[longway]

At this stage, no, I’m pretty confident Biden will win. Back then, it was very complicated. What’s changed: Biden looked poor in debates and it didn’t matter because there was no stand out, Harris destroyed her own chances, Pete has probably peaked and can’t go further than winning middle America, the socialism movement doesn’t have as much momentum.

People are hyping Bernie but I think his results will be similar to last year.

All things being equal, I agree with you. But the impeachment proceedings are the wild card. If the Senate goes for a quick trial, it will negatively affect Bernie the most and help Biden. But what if they decide to subpoena Hunter? Or even Joe. Pelosi has given unprecedented power to Trump over their primary process. That scenario would benefit Buttigieg, and Bloomberg too. It would be funny if Bloomberg gets the nomination in the end.

 

[Joedaman55]

All things being equal, I agree with you. But the impeachment proceedings are the wild card. If the Senate goes for a quick trial, it will negatively affect Bernie the most and help Biden. But what if they decide to subpoena Hunter? Or even Joe. Pelosi has given unprecedented power to Trump over their primary process. That scenario would benefit Buttigieg, and Bloomberg too. It would be funny if Bloomberg gets the nomination in the end.

I don’t think the impeachment will have much effect. The only things I’m hearing about it from more moderate people is that this impeachment thing is a waste of time. I think most people have made up their mind on their democratic candidate and an impeachment trial that the senate won’t spend much time on, will have little effect.

Pelosi was so stupid for doing this because with a republican controlled senate they’ll skew the investigation and make the Democrats look like idiots or their likely primary winner, look crooked. If she doesn’t move forward with impeachment, the Democrats just wasted a shitload of money on nothing. It was a lose/lose move for Democrats that was made impulsively.

As I said, Trump wanted to get impeached for this exact political position. He is a very good negotiator and is good at tapping into his opponents emotions to get them to move irrationally, it’s on another level. He might be the best politician of all times once his political moves are studied years after his presidency (whether you like him or not).

 

[TrueAscension]

Not a big Trump fan (or any of the Dem candidates either) but the way he worked Iran was beautiful. Last week he's threatening to bomb cultural sites and now the people of Iran are rioting in the streets demanding a revolution.

 

[longway]

Not a big Trump fan (or any of the Dem candidates either) but the way he worked Iran was beautiful. Last week he's threatening to bomb cultural sites and now the people of Iran are rioting in the streets demanding a revolution.

Ah, I thought you were being sarcastic. Trump is very strategic, he creates chaos as that's how he generates opportunities. Soliemani was a roadblock to any negotiation with Iran, he was also very charismatic and united the anti-religious nationalists with the religious nuts. Now that he is gone they will be at each other's throats again. You can't overstate his importance in Iran.

Killing him sent a powerful message to the mullahs, its great to see a US president who is competent enough to wield the incredible power that the USA possesses for a change.

 

[TrueAscension]

Ah, I thought you were being sarcastic. Trump is very strategic, he creates chaos as that's how he generates opportunities. Soliemani was a roadblock to any negotiation with Iran, he was also very charismatic and united the anti-religious nationalists with the religious nuts. Now that he is gone they will be at each other's throats again. You can't overstate his importance in Iran.

Killing him sent a powerful message to the mullahs, its great to see a US president who is competent enough to wield the incredible power that the USA possesses for a change.

No sarcasm here. Iran knows what they’re fucking with now and Trump is showing the US will get behind a revolution which is a big dick move. They won’t shoot missiles at a target that will result in any casualties or they’re really, really fucked.

Coupled with the way my IRA/401k is doing, I may just have to vote for this dude in 2020.

 

[longway]

Buttigieg not really standing out so far. Looks my play on his line movement will be a dud. Lucky I put a little on Sanders, he is doing well.

 

[longway]

Warren thinks playing the vagina card is a big dick move. Delusional as ever.

Clear collusion between cnn and barren on setting that up btw. Bernie shafted yet again but keeps playing nice.

 

[longway]

Barren is a snake. I guess she will be bidens vp pick.

 

[longway]

After the debate, with the help of CNN, she went out her way to create a little scene with Bernie. Barren is vile.



You guys still think that there that dnc will allow bernie to win?