Biden might not even place outside the top 3 in IA/NH. He's not totally out of the race in those states. But I don't like looking at single historical predictors in elections when there may be others that can supersede it.
Yes, it's possible Biden will place in the top three in one or both of IA/NH. I'd be willing to bet he will not finish above 3rd in either one.
I think the trend over time will be for "momentum" to matter more than in the past. That's because primaries are becoming more nationalized and regional differences are smaller than in the past, while herd behavior is an essential feature of voter psychology.
I'm not looking at a "single historical predictor". I think Buttigieg is articulate, has "the look", has a well-defined "lane", and can appeal to all segments of the party except the Sanders wing. This is all the stuff I've been writing here since May. I agree with you that history is only to be used for reference, not as a guide.
The fact that Buttigieg is barely in the race in most states outside of IA and NH
I don't think this is reasonable. Only three states are well-polled right now and Buttigieg is leading in two of them. In the third, Buttigieg tied Warren today at 10%, putting him in 3rd.
Buttigieg's campaign strategy is just based on momentum by investing everything in those first two states, and it's extremely possible that he doesn't win either of them.
I don't agree with this either. Buttigieg has been spending a lot of time in SC recently meeting with blacks and Latinos.
If he wins 1 or both, it doesn't automatically create double-digit swings in other states where he's significantly behind.
If he wins both comfortably, I'll bet it makes a double-digit swing in his national numbers. That's what happened in the 2008 primary. In a race with such a weak front-runner, a ~15% swing will probably be enough to hand him the nomination.
You can believe that black voters aren't paying attention yet, but again, Buttigieg is polling behind Delaney with them lol.
First of all, that's false under most interpretations but the statement is sufficiently vague that you might find some poll somewhere that makes it true.
Second of all, I think if you pick out a recent national poll at random with crosstabs you will find that a huge percentage of black respondent don't even know who Buttigieg is.
Here's a link to the most recent Economist/YouGov poll of 1500 US adult citizens. On page 63 you will find that 48% of black respondents don't have an opinion of Buttigieg. The corresponding number for Biden is 18%.
"Buttigieg is weak with blacks" may grow even stronger as more attention is given to the racial issues in South Bend under his mayorship.
I seriously doubt this and am willing to bet on it.
The black community there aren't very big fans of his in general.
Any decent-quality polling to back this up or just guessing?
Even when he put out his racial justice platform, it backfired spectacularly when he included endorsements from black leaders who came out and said they never endorsed him.
Yes, he should have been more careful there. Review everything that goes out in your name instead of letting contractors publish in your name.
I also don't think black voters' support of Biden should be confused with them just loving moderate platforms, and we can't assume they would support another moderate if Biden slips. Biden's relationship with Obama goes a long way.
Agree with the first two statements, but again I think black support for Biden is largely a name recognition and familiarity thing at this stage.
