Political Betting Thread

[TrueAscension]

I totally disagree with this. I think this would be a good point in like 2004, but not the case anymore. Huge portions of the democratic base hate the idea of people buying their way into the election. Big money might not work like it used to, with Warren+Sanders outraising the field with small donors. Bloomberg's platform doesn't even differentiate itself enough from the moderates, and he has virtually nothing to spark some sort of populist movement to build a big base in a crowded field. These moderate tactics are the exact opposite of a winning strategy here imo.

Hillary destroyed Trump in the debates lol. It wasn't a difficult thing to do. Trump just spouts word salads and looks like an idiot when he's challenged on anything. The right-wing media just always scrambled to spin it into some sort of win for him, which they'll do no matter what. I have no doubt Bloomberg could also destroy Trump in a debate, as any dem in this field would do. Except maybe Biden because he's a god-awful debater who I remember looking terrible in VP debates against Paul Ryan.

On you mentioning Obama, yes I agree he was a middle of the road dem. But I don't like how people forget how Obama ran his campaign. In 2008, a year that saw far less left-wing support on some mainstream issues we have now, he ran as a hard left populist that everyone on the right decried as a socialist who will destroy America. He beat an extremely good candidate in McCain and won by a big margin. Somehow we're acting like this is the wrong move now.

All good I disagree with honestly everything you say here as well but respect how well you laid it out. I suppose we will have to see what happens

 

[Joedaman55]

Maybe and maybe not, but Adams is being way too confident imo. He's also holding out hope that Harris will still become the nominee through a backdoor. To me the guy just thinks way too highly of his political handicapping abilities. Overall he's a smart and interesting guy though.

Harris isn’t a bad guess for VP. I don’t think it will be her but she has a lot of the characteristics I think Biden will choose. He’s lost a little bit on his Harris bets but made a ton of money on the 2016 election and predicted things far better than anyone else (he would predict Trump’s moves before he did them).

He’s a pretty right on with the Democratic Primary too, he’s seen massive holes that will lose Biden the general but he falls into the trap where he sees holes but can’t substitute in a better candidate unless he looks at things idealistically. Who is doing better than Adams at this stage of the election?

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Who is doing better than Adams at this stage of the election?

Me.

As you know, I've been bearish on Harris from fairly early on.

sig/AV bet on this? I view her as unlikely to win.

I thought Biden would fall faster but that prediction still hasn't changed.

My picks were Buttigieg and Sanders. I bet Buttigieg at +2000.

The biggest thing I've missed is Warren. It's been hard for me to get a grip on her as a candidate. Sometimes she seems like an elite candidate, other times she makes low IQ decisions.

My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

 

[LiquidityTrap]

This tweet captures why I've been writing here that Bloomberg can make a serious dent in this race. Again, I predict he will not be the winner but that his national polling average will exceed 7% at some point.

 

[Joedaman55]

Me.

As you know, I've been bearish on Harris from fairly early on.



I thought Biden would fall faster but that prediction still hasn't changed.

My picks were Buttigieg and Sanders. I bet Buttigieg at +2000.

The biggest thing I've missed is Warren. It's been hard for me to get a grip on her as a candidate. Sometimes she seems like an elite candidate, other times she makes low IQ decisions.

My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

Lol we prolly need to wait on your results before we suggest you’re doing better than Adams. He had a couple small bets on Harris, you have several large bets on three candidates. Adams bet on a candidate trading at like 7:1+ at the time, it’s not like it was 50/50 in the market (although that’s the odds I have someone at with her qualities and I wouldn’t deviate given my information then).

For this election cycle, you’d have to better than Adams, think he has lost on two bets with zero wins this cycle and his bets were long shots not 50:50.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Bloomberg up to 7% nationally in today's Harvard-Harris poll. I told you gentleman, he will be a serious player here and I think his national polling average will exceed 7%. Again, I expect he will not win.

 

[TrueAscension]

Bloomberg is the only man smart enough to beat Trump. Period. The rest of the candidates jumped in way too early and blew their load so to speak.

In the meantime, Bloomberg can run ads day and night until election night about literally anything he wants at any given time.

You can probably still find a 10:1 somewhere and I'd suggest all of you people who had faith in Biden or some no name mayor to hedge yourselves w/ Mike

 

[longway]

Biden could Mr Magoo it to the nomination. Be funny if that happened.

 

[bruthead]

You guys think Warren is out of it? +500 from as low as +110 isn't a bad price now. Looks the leading candidate with the least obvious weaknesses.

 

[Roads55]

You guys think Warren is out of it? +500 from as low as +110 isn't a bad price now. Looks the leading candidate with the least obvious weaknesses.

I don't think any of the main contenders are really out of it, but it's hard to see her making up the ground she has lost. she could(maybe already has) lost ground to both the moderates and the progressive candidates seeing as she positioned herself somewhere in the middle. she's been pretty quiet lately, not getting many headlines or coverage, she needs a good debate performance or i see her poll numbers dropping further. as others have talked about (waigouren i think?) she doesn't seem to handle being attacked very well, like in the below example. she could benefit from biden or buttigieg making some fuck ups or generally losing ground however.

 

[Roads55]

I think the decline of biden has started now, polling 4th in NH and Iowa and it doesn't look like he will challenge for either, seeing as they are the first 2 states to vote, that could negatively impact his leads in other states. the old man incident has been pretty neggatively received and each new gaffe takes away a little bit from his image. ofc none of this might matter if none of the other candidates can make a big push, maybe that's what the dnc is trying to do with the rest of the candidates, just stopping anyone else from breaking away from the rest of the pack to challenge biden's poll numbers.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Biden does a horrible, horrible job dealing with the Hunter Biden/Burisma thing at the beginning of this clip. Even Mika and Morning Joe (Biden lovers) are uncomfortable.

 

[rev0lver]

You guys think Warren is out of it? +500 from as low as +110 isn't a bad price now. Looks the leading candidate with the least obvious weaknesses.

Honestly yes I do think she's out of it unless she makes some kind of major move. She ended up shooting herself in the foot with progressives, and as time's gone on has looked more and more like the rest of the field rather than a less-crazy-seeming Bernie alternative. As someone who liked her going into the primary race, I wish I could've told her team "don't do that" on a couple big things that I think led to her recent downturn. Bouncing back seems like a difficult prospect right now, especially as Bernie's somewhat bounced back and others have received a lot more media focus.

I really think this primary is down to Biden and Sanders right now. I don't want to totally discount Buttigieg's chances, but I'd give him like a 5% shot, considering he's just gone all-in on Iowa and NH while sitting far behind everywhere else. I just don't think that's enough. Unless Warren actually pulls some sort of comeback move, I don't see anyone else coming close.

 

[Joedaman55]

You guys think Warren is out of it? +500 from as low as +110 isn't a bad price now. Looks the leading candidate with the least obvious weaknesses.

She’s not out of it but her far left platform has a ceiling, Bernie hit it in the 2016 primary. I don’t think the country has changed enough to increase that ceiling and Sanders was extremely charasmatic in 2016 and created a movement. I don’t see that with Warren.

The argument is that she gets momentum after winning Iowa but I think she struggles with a lot of demographics similar to Pete’s problem. She’s got about 4 debates to change that but we’ve seen nothing new in the previous three debates. They’re so similar now that many people know the stances and have no interest in watching them. The upcoming one is the most important one.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

I wrote here six months ago that it's likely one or more of the debates will be cut down to just Buttigieg and a bunch of old retirees. I also wrote that this would be great optics for Buttigieg.

Now things are shaping up that way. It appears this month's debate will have only six candidates. Yang is praying that tomorrow's Monmouth poll will qualify him. If not, the lineup will be

Biden (77)
Sanders (78)
Warren (71)
Steyer (62)
Klobuchar (59)
Buttigieg (38)


If January's rules thin the herd just a little more, the debate participants will be down to

Biden (77)
Sanders (78)
Warren (71)
Buttigieg (38)

in the most important debate of the entire cycle---the last debate before Iowa caucus. This was my vision in May when I bet on Buttigieg, check the record.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

This one was from August. I made similar comments earlier though. I think these optics would hand Buttigieg the nomination.

Buttigieg's campaign is loaded with cash and he's at no risk of failing to make future the debates. After the field winnows, we'll probably end up among a group of five on the debate stage: Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, Biden.

Imagine a handsome and articulate 38-year-old on stage next to three septuagenarians and an angry pandering 50-something woman. The optics will be great for him. As for policy, he's "wonkier" than all the rest. He won't be losing policy debates for lack of detail.

The only concern there is Bloomberg. His effect on the race is going to be complicated to figure out. On the one hand, I'm confident his national polling average will break 7%. His ad spending will exceed that of all other top four candidates combined. He also can take support from Buttigieg and especially Biden. Meh, I still think Buttigieg is the most likely nominee.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

September:

Imagine January debates with four candidates: Sanders/Biden/Elizabeth/Buttigieg. Anyone stand out?

 

[longway]

I think the decline of biden has started now, polling 4th in NH and Iowa and it doesn't look like he will challenge for either, seeing as they are the first 2 states to vote, that could negatively impact his leads in other states. the old man incident has been pretty neggatively received and each new gaffe takes away a little bit from his image. ofc none of this might matter if none of the other candidates can make a big push, maybe that's what the dnc is trying to do with the rest of the candidates, just stopping anyone else from breaking away from the rest of the pack to challenge biden's poll numbers.

These are old polls and his national polling is steady. Traditonally the dnc nominee has won either iowa or nh, but if he polls above 15% he its not a disaster for him. There is no sign he is doing badly in nevada or sc.

Im expecting him to tank too, but someone needs to make a move on him next debate, logically it should be buttigieg, but he tried once already and just looked mean iirc.

If there is no national poll that shows him dropping support after the next debate, there is no reason, he cant get a plurarity of delegates.

I dont think the dnc will be that unhappy with that outcome. They know there are few ptvs in the presidential anyway, and this will allow them to primary the progressives and get them out of the dnc.

 

[rev0lver]

These are old polls and his national polling is steady. Traditonally the dnc nominee has won either iowa or nh, but if he polls above 15% he its not a disaster for him. There is no sign he is doing badly in nevada or sc.

Im expecting him to tank too, but someone needs to make a move on him next debate, logically it should be buttigieg, but he tried once already and just looked mean iirc.

Yeah tbh I think it's possible Biden can still win even if he loses both Iowa and NH, if the current numbers even somewhat hold up. He has a solid lead in a number of important states.

Buttigieg stealing Biden voters is still a tougher prospect than it looks. Red states, which tend to favor Biden the most right now, aren't necessarily going to fall in his favor. Black voters are such an important demographic in these states, where dem voters are even more urban-centric than in blue states, and Buttigieg still does terribly with them while a plurality still support Biden. I saw something today showing Buttigieg has less support among black voters in SC than John Delaney lol

Ultimately someone needs to attack Biden at the debates, though. Sanders & Warren don't like going on the offense very much, even if they should. Klobuchar only tries to hit the progressive platforms. Harris was throwing some of the big punches before, and she's gone now. Buttigieg might have to try and make a move on him again.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Yeah tbh I think it's possible Biden can still win even if he loses both Iowa and NH, if the current numbers even somewhat hold up. He has a solid lead in a number of important states.

Buttigieg stealing Biden voters is still a tougher prospect than it looks. Red states, which tend to favor Biden the most right now, aren't necessarily going to fall in his favor. Black voters are such an important demographic in these states, where dem voters are even more urban-centric than in blue states, and Buttigieg still does terribly with them while a plurality still support Biden. I saw something today showing Buttigieg has less support among black voters in SC than John Delaney lol

Ultimately someone needs to attack Biden at the debates, though. Sanders & Warren don't like going on the offense very much, even if they should. Klobuchar only tries to hit the progressive platforms. Harris was throwing some of the big punches before, and she's gone now. Buttigieg might have to try and make a move on him again.

My views are diverging from yours.

First of all, IA/NH are looking very bad for Biden. No one has ever placed outside the top three in both and gone on to win the nomination. If Buttigieg dominates in both states I think the race is over. Biden knows this so that's why he's on his "No Malarkey!" bus tour through rural Iowa trying to put a higher floor on his support.

I believe that most black voters just aren't paying attention yet. The few people who are paying a lot of attention are mostly white and are either "progressive" activist types or college-graduate whites. Sanders appeals to the former and Buttigieg appeals to the latter. (Obviously there is some overlap).

"The Buttigieg is weak with blacks" argument will die out soon. Today's SC poll has Buttigieg up to 10% in SC, tied with Warren. That's probably white people for the most part, but black people will come around too.

Finally, I disagree that someone needs to attack Biden at the debate. The key is to let Biden fade into oblivion on the debate stage while offering a superior alternative. Sanders hasn't done this because many many Democrats have decided he is unlikely to beat Trump. MSM has now tarred Warren with that same "too left" label and she has lost the "progressive" vote---double whammy. Buttigieg lies in wait. He just has to keep playing the game as he has been. Only concern here is Bloomberg's ridiculous buying power.