Political Betting Thread

[Joedaman55]

Let’s talk about line movement for a minute.

My only general election bet right now is $500 with a coworker that Trump will lose (evens=value at this point). But I eventually want to put some more money online.

REGARDLESS of what you think about the election, how do you think the line will move?

You pretty much have to accept at this point that the pro-Trump bet will not be based on approval ratings, polling data, or recent election data. That’s normally the basis for political betting lines, but not in this case. In a typical situation, Trump might at least a moderate underdog. But the assumption from the right is that this data is wrong or underestimating his base’s turnout. Even if the eventual dem candidate is polling at +20, the only thing I can anticipate that could give Trump bettors hesitation is an economic downturn. While that’s a possible occurrence, I’m not going to bet on that happening over the next year.

My thinking is that bettors tend to lean conservative. This is based purely on my personal assumptions, I don’t really know. I think the right-wing sentiment that Trump will win will hold up for many more months (at the least). If I’m going to bet against Trump, would it be worth it to hold my bet in hopes the dems could shift to be an underdog?

It depends at what time you bet. The best time to bet on Trump will be right after the primary when someone is selected and Democrats seem united under that person. The media will play the candidate up and he’ll look like the favorite until Trump destroys them in the debates.

For betting on a Democrat, it’s probably best now. I’m sure Biden, Pete, or Warren are bettable individually and prolly will return at better odds than taking the Democratic field. Those are the only ones I think have a shot with Biden being the large favorite.

 

[Joedaman55]

What are the alternatives though? Biden and Buttigieg keeping the decades-old talking points about slow, incremental change and status quo politics? Because that's what they seem to do. They spend tons of time trashing progressive policies and talking points without having those candidates or surrogates on to discuss them.

That’s the point I’ve been making for months, there is no strong candidate. That’s one of the reasons you’re seeing longway throw out big bets on Trump, there’s no way he should be the underdog. There is no Democrats running that are charismatic with the voters you need to beat Trump.

 

[longway]

Well I guess there's better odds when you bet Trump pre-primary lol. There's not a "will Trump lose" line in my book, just winning party at -115 each.

That makes me think though, if Trump is at +150 right now, would the eventual dem candidate have much worse odds than -115?

Its bc the primary process has been severely compromised. Its a very safe bet with plenty of value.

If you think that Trump is in a bad position then -115 is good, but the line will get worse, so you may as well wait. The only top 4 dnc candidate with a possible upside in the general is buttigieg. Warren, biden and sanders would haemorrage support the more familiar with them voters become. The populist message resonates, but the people who carry the populist left message do not, even bernie, now that he has identified himself with the dnc identitarian hard left will struggle.

 

[rev0lver]

Its bc the primary process has been severely compromised. Its a very safe bet with plenty of value.

If you think that Trump is in a bad position then -115 is good, but the line will get worse, so you may as well wait. The only top 4 dnc candidate with a possible upside in the general is buttigieg. Warren, biden and sanders would haemorrage support the more familiar with them voters become. The populist message resonates, but the people who carry the populist left message do not, even bernie, now that he has identified himself with the dnc identitarian hard left will struggle.

I'd strongly argue against those points but I'm just thinking about the lines right now lol. I'm extremely confident in betting against Trump, barring some crazy event like Marianne Williamson winning the primary or Trump personally dive-tackling a terrorist.

Of course the lines will be a little different depending on the dem candidate. But if Trump is at +150 right now, wouldn't that put the average dem candidate at about -180? Maybe take a few points off if the +150 is accounting for the possibility of removal from office or somehow losing the primary. Maybe the average dem would sit closer to -150. But that's still a big difference from -115.

My main takeaway from what I'm seeing is just that if trends continue the way they have for the past year (and most of Trump's presidency), the polling data probably won't put the election in Trump's favor. But I don't think the betting line will represent that in a Trump race. It's hard for me to imagine Trump's line improving from the traditional predictive metrics, but rather out of pure confidence by conservatives. I'm just curious how big of an effect this could be in the line moving forward if polling data itself doesn't improve for him.

 

[longway]

But if Trump is at +150 right now, wouldn't that put the average dem candidate at about -180? Maybe take a few points off if the +150 is accounting for the possibility of removal from office or somehow losing the primary. Maybe the average dem would sit closer to -150. But that's still a big difference from -115.

A little slow on the uptake, but perhaps an arbitrage op there if you think trump will lose. Of course, there is the impeachment to consider and unforseen circumstances that trump cant run in 2020.

 

[longway]

Just found out that both Kamala and Warren are staffed by the same people who were in Hilarity Clunkton's campfail.

<45>thank you clunkton. You are a godsend. Putin sends his regards.

 

[rev0lver]

I was going through some historical data on approval ratings as they relate to election results for an incumbent. If Trump's approval ratings maintain, he would set a record for an elected incumbent with the lowest approval rating.

Getting my numbers from fivethirtyeight here. I'm not sure how to easily find actual averages between periods of time so the election-year percents are just approximate. For reference, Trump sits at 41.6% approval right now and has sat around 41-42% over the past two years.

Incumbents who won with <50% approval in re-election year:
Barack Obama - saw an upward trend from 2011 to 2012 as the economic recovery took effect. Averaged around 48% in the year pre-election, grew toward 50% by election day. Won by a solid margin.

George W Bush - saw a mostly downward trend that somewhat evened out in his re-election year. Generally sat between 47-50% leading up to the election. Won a relatively close contest by edging out Ohio, though still won the pop vote by 3mil votes.

Harry Truman - very low quantity of data makes it an unreliable reference. Approval had some wild variances.

Incumbents who lost:
George HW Bush - terrible election-year trends saw him dip to a ~35% average approval. Lost the election by a wide margin. Notably, this was the election in which Ross Perot took a solid amount of voters. But most post-election analyses concluded that Perot took votes from Clinton and Bush pretty equally, and may have actually hurt the Clinton vote more.

Jimmy Carter - started the year above 50%, but spent most of his re-election year between 30-40% approval. Lost the election in a landslide.

Gerald Ford - spent election year with low-mid 40's approval. Lost a somewhat competitive election, though most of the tightly-contested states went in Ford's favor anyway.

Here's the major problem for Trump as it relates to this: The state of the economy has generally been a good predictor for incumbents, and this is typically reflected in approval ratings. The economy got worse in Bush Sr's final year, his approval rating tanked and he lost re-election. For Obama, the economic recovery took its greatest effect heading into his re-election, his approval rating slowly climbed up, and he won. For Trump, there's really not much he can do economically within the republican platform at this point. By normal metrics, it's a "good" economy. So his approval rating is in SPITE of the economic advantage he has this election. There's no new "turnaround" he can create that can improve these numbers, and even a slight decline could see him tank. This makes me think the state of the economy isn't a boost for Trump to overcome his poor approval+polling, but rather the only thing that keeps him from a clear landslide loss.

 

[longway]

^ he doesnt need high approval, he just needs to have higher approval than his opponent.

Clunkton and Trump both had low approval, and trump lower than clunkton, and he still won.

He has already started to work on destroying the credibility of all his potential opponents. He has his eye on the ball.

 

[Roads55]

once we get into the new year trump's line will very likely shorten to around evens. he's 1.22ish to win the republican nomination and about 2.38ish to win the presidency again. the main thing keeping his nomination price at 1.22 is simply time and the market worrying about his age, impeachment, or some other scandal. I'm adding pretty consistently to trump next president in the last couple weeks, should be a fairly easy trade

 

[TrueAscension]

Not sure why you people don’t see how Bloomberg is going to get the nomination and will then beat trump.

Hillary phoned it in and so did her voters and she still won the popular vote. A ton of kids turned 18 over the last 4 years and they’re certainly not voting Trump.

Trumps base will rabidly come out and support him but the problem he has is that his base has not grown at all.

Bloomberg’s your winner

 

[Joedaman55]

Well, we have a new winner for biggest presidential primary candidate mistake ever.

 

[Roads55]

Not sure why you people don’t see how Bloomberg is going to get the nomination and will then beat trump.

Hillary phoned it in and so did her voters and she still won the popular vote. A ton of kids turned 18 over the last 4 years and they’re certainly not voting Trump.

Trumps base will rabidly come out and support him but the problem he has is that his base has not grown at all.

Bloomberg’s your winner

what's your reasoning for bloomberg winning?

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Buttigieg on the warpath in SC talking to lots of black and Latino groups every day.






===============

BOOM

Buttigieg picks up three major endorsements including that of Reggie Love.






=============

BOOM

Sanders back on top in California.




That's

Sanders +5
Buttigieg + 6
Warren -7
Biden - 6
Harris -1


==============
My Current bets (Democratic nomination):


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Wow, amazing, that waiguoren guy called the Democratic primary perfectly seven months ago and even risked $1000s on the outcome:

 

[rev0lver]

^ he doesnt need high approval, he just needs to have higher approval than his opponent.

Clunkton and Trump both had low approval, and trump lower than clunkton, and he still won.

He has already started to work on destroying the credibility of all his potential opponents. He has his eye on the ball.

Yeah and that backfired in the worst possible way to an incoming impeachment lmao. He's not very good at doing that and focuses on the wrong things to do so effectively. The conspiracy theories only grab a handful of people and risks turning away more. This dude almost lost to Hillary Clinton for gods sake.

Lots of these approval polls are tied with election polls, and Trump loses to the leading candidates in nearly all of them. The margins look worse for Trump than they did in the 2016 cycle, where Trump actually polled ahead of Hillary in a good number of them. It doesn't seem that difficult to get better favorability than Trump by election day.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

lol. Some old black Buttigieg supporters in South Bend, Indiana were holding an event. Some loony Black Lives Matter people stormed in and stole the mic. Old black people start smacking the BLM leader. Funny video.

 

[rev0lver]

Wow, amazing, that waiguoren guy called the Democratic primary perfectly seven months ago and even risked $1000s on the outcome:

Yeah I still don't think it's gonna happen. Heavy oppo is coming through on Buttigieg when there hasn't been much before. If it's his turn in the spotlight, it's also his turn to be the focus of criticism. And that doesn't bode well for him.

 

[rev0lver]

BOOM

Buttigieg picks up three major endorsements including that of Reggie Love.

I'll give Buttigieg props for finding his first black supporter

 

[LiquidityTrap]

@Rev0lver

Yeah I still don't think it's gonna happen. Heavy oppo is coming through on Buttigieg when there hasn't been much before. If it's his turn in the spotlight, it's also his turn to be the focus of criticism. And that doesn't bode well for him.

They will find nothing of consequence bro. Sanders should be hoping for a strong performance from Bloomberg, which fortunately for you guys I do believe Bloomberg is capable of.

I'll give Buttigieg props for finding his first black supporter

He'll do fine with black voters.

 

[rev0lver]

@Rev0lver


They will find nothing of consequence bro. Sanders should be hoping for a strong performance from Bloomberg, which fortunately for you guys I do believe Bloomberg is capable of.



He'll do fine with black voters.

He has less black support than Trump. I think his black support still rounds down to 0%?

They've already found tons of consequence, it's just a matter of giving it more attention. Pete has faced next to zero challenges in the MSM up to this point, and the progressive wing has started to rail against him. In the end, he's just a mayor of a small city who didn't do a very good job of mayoring. He's run a smart campaign to give himself attention, but being a generic establishment politician doesn't capture the vote as much as it used to. If Pete actually does maintain some momentum I'm skeptical he'll even reach Warren's peak.