Don't wanna get too off topic, but I think convincing people to abolish the EC is a very easy position if we have a national conversation about it. Auto-blue California has more rural farmers than most red states. They feel disenfranchised in national elections, and their vote should count. Red states have the same thing with their more left-wing urban centers. The tactical change this creates in elections is something that probably should happen, as most of America seems to get completely ignored by candidates on both sides. You can say that a presidential race isn't the right time to bring the issue up, since swing-state voters feel the most empowered by the EC, but it's a principled position that most Americans could probably get behind.
Political Betting Thread
- Thread starter GearSolidMetal
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Don't wanna get too off topic, but I think convincing people to abolish the EC is a very easy position if we have a national conversation about it. Auto-blue California has more rural farmers than most red states. They feel disenfranchised in national elections, and their vote should count. Red states have the same thing with their more left-wing urban centers. The tactical change this creates in elections is something that probably should happen, as most of America seems to get completely ignored by candidates on both sides. You can say that a presidential race isn't the right time to bring the issue up, since swing-state voters feel the most empowered by the EC, but it's a principled position that most Americans could probably get behind.
Kamala Harris has officially dropped out. I think it's appropriate, she knew it was probably an impossible prospect at this point, and nice to see the debate stage this month will be slightly less crowded.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902
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I dug into this one further and found this idea is more nuanced than i thought. You make some good points. I think i am being a bit too harsh on warren. i predicted her rise and predicted her fall, and made money both ways, so i started to think i had her all figured out. I was too quick to dismiss this merely as a stunt. She still sucks though.
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I agree, she has a very good talent stack but is not the type the DNC or most Democrats identify with. She has no shot in caucuses and isn’t popular with certain demographics. Adams pushes weird ideas sometimes and tries using persuasion to convince us and himself that it is the best move.
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The chance is very low but I’m with Scott here, this would be a max bet for me at his current odds. I was questioning putting $10k on him when he was trading at 4:1 last year but didn’t want to associate my name and rep with betting that large on politics.
Trump as a politician is way underrated by most, he’s arguably the best politician ever. As time passes, you’ll see history view him way differently once the propaganda the media markets push changes.
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It really feels like their is a media blackout of bernie right now, despite massive grass roots support and good poll #'s good donations, good debate performances, a renewed (amazingly) bill of health. I know htere already is a blackout on him to some extent but it feels like the media is ignoring him even harder than normal. i think they are starting to get worried that there isn't a centrist that can actually hold up vs trump. I think they are split between buttigieg and biden (a rock and a hard place) as both have more serious red flags than the other candidates, obviously buttigieg support with black people, and general lack of name recognition with the masses being a risky gamble also as who knows how people will react to him. and then biden with well...you guys know lol
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Joe Biden Leaves Rural Iowa for Glittery Manhattan Fundraisers
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden left rural Iowa for the penthouses of New York for a six-figure night of fund-raising, sticking to a brief stump speech as he collected cash to keep his campaign afloat in key early voting states.
His approach was as different as the locations. In Iowa’s small cities he’s discussed shared values. In Manhattan, he flattered the donors from the worlds of finance, diplomacy and art by telling them they were “one of the most sophisticated audiences I’ll ever speak to.”
Biden has hustled to boost his fundraising after a lackluster third quarter and on Monday his campaign said it raised $15 million in October and November, the same amount it took in during the summer. Biden has kept up a steady pace of fundraising events where tickets go for as much as the maximum $2,800 per person.
Alan Patricof, 85, managing director and co-founder of Greycroft Partners LLC, introduced the candidate Tuesday night, telling the mostly 60-plus crowd that Biden has an advantage over some -- though not all -- of his opponents.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-avoiding-companies-with-minimum-federal-levy
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@Joedaman55
Scott Adams overreacting here.
Do you think that I feel embarrassed that for a year I made a prediction which turned out to be, I think we can all agree, the worst prediction anybody has ever made? Because it turns out---and I didn't know this at the time of the prediction---that Kamala Harris has no skills at all for being a politician. None! You know, some people have some skills---they're good at some stuff but they're not good at other things---Kamala Harris doesn't have any skills for being a candidate for president. Now I didn't see that coming. Because at the time that I called her I hadn't really seen her in public much and when I did she was doing lawyerly things like at Senate hearings where she's sitting at a seat acting like a prosecutor. Now, when Kamala Harris acts like a prosecutor in her role as Senator, I saw that and I said, "huh, that's pretty good!" Pretty good.
So I said to myself, "well if she can do that, probably she can take those skills into the realm of being a candidate." She could not take those skills into the realm of being a candidate. And I say this with no ambiguity whatsoever. She's the worst candidate I've ever seen in my lifetime. By far the worst. Not even close. You can't even think of anybody. You literally can't think of any candidate who did as bad a job as she did.
Starts at 2:10
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden left rural Iowa for the penthouses of New York for a six-figure night of fund-raising, sticking to a brief stump speech as he collected cash to keep his campaign afloat in key early voting states.
His approach was as different as the locations. In Iowa’s small cities he’s discussed shared values. In Manhattan, he flattered the donors from the worlds of finance, diplomacy and art by telling them they were “one of the most sophisticated audiences I’ll ever speak to.”
Biden has hustled to boost his fundraising after a lackluster third quarter and on Monday his campaign said it raised $15 million in October and November, the same amount it took in during the summer. Biden has kept up a steady pace of fundraising events where tickets go for as much as the maximum $2,800 per person.
Alan Patricof, 85, managing director and co-founder of Greycroft Partners LLC, introduced the candidate Tuesday night, telling the mostly 60-plus crowd that Biden has an advantage over some -- though not all -- of his opponents.
“What’s so bad about having someone with experience, leading the country in these challenging times?” Patricof said of the 77-year-old former vice president. “I, for one, am someone who keeps saying, you know, experience is not so bad. It counts.”
Patricof endorsed Biden a few months ago, arguing that he was best positioned to beat President Donald Trump, and activated his donor network. He held his event Tuesday at the art-filled apartment of Milly and Arne Glimcher, founder of Pace Gallery.
An Alexander Calder mobile hung from the ceiling of the two-story living room, while a giant three-way electrical plug sculpture by Claes Oldenburg hung at another. Patricof warned the guests to be careful around the big canvases by the Glimchers’ late friend Mark Rothko. “Please don’t touch the Rothko. You can touch anything else,” he joked. “Not the Rothko.”
Biden seemed impressed, thanking the Glimchers for “opening your museum for me” and quipping that it was “worth the trip for no other reason just to walk around.”
Lee Equity Partners LLC; Anne and Vincent Mai, founder and chairman of Cranemere LLC; Ellen and Richard Richman, founder and CEO of the Richman Group Inc.; Jay Snyder, principal of HBJ Investments LLC; and Michael Kempner, founder and CEO of the public relations firm MWWPR. Donald Blinken, a former U.S. ambassador to Hungary and co-founder of E.M. Warburg, Pincus & Co., was also at the event and drew praise from Biden for raising his longtime foreign policy adviser Tony Blinken.
“Joe’s someone who many of us here consider to be an old friend and someone with whom we are very comfortable. And I think that’s an important word to say this day,” Patricof said. Later, he added that Biden is “someone who also I think will make, and is making, people comfortable all around the country.”
The second fundraiser was held at the home of David A. Steinberg, founder and CEO of marketing firm Zeta Global Corp. Michael Blackson, an actor and comedian who was a guest of the host, caught Biden’s attention with his calf-length red, purple and gold Versace puffer coat.
“The key to success is hiring and working with people smarter than you and who can dress a hell of a lot better than you,” Biden said after spotting two former staffers as well as Blackson in the crowd of 65 donors. “I tell you what man, we ought to go on the road together,” he told Blackson.
After he wrapped up, he headed out back on the road for a late-night return to Iowa -- without Blackson or his colorful coat.
Patricof endorsed Biden a few months ago, arguing that he was best positioned to beat President Donald Trump, and activated his donor network. He held his event Tuesday at the art-filled apartment of Milly and Arne Glimcher, founder of Pace Gallery.
An Alexander Calder mobile hung from the ceiling of the two-story living room, while a giant three-way electrical plug sculpture by Claes Oldenburg hung at another. Patricof warned the guests to be careful around the big canvases by the Glimchers’ late friend Mark Rothko. “Please don’t touch the Rothko. You can touch anything else,” he joked. “Not the Rothko.”
Biden seemed impressed, thanking the Glimchers for “opening your museum for me” and quipping that it was “worth the trip for no other reason just to walk around.”
Lee Equity Partners LLC; Anne and Vincent Mai, founder and chairman of Cranemere LLC; Ellen and Richard Richman, founder and CEO of the Richman Group Inc.; Jay Snyder, principal of HBJ Investments LLC; and Michael Kempner, founder and CEO of the public relations firm MWWPR. Donald Blinken, a former U.S. ambassador to Hungary and co-founder of E.M. Warburg, Pincus & Co., was also at the event and drew praise from Biden for raising his longtime foreign policy adviser Tony Blinken.
“Joe’s someone who many of us here consider to be an old friend and someone with whom we are very comfortable. And I think that’s an important word to say this day,” Patricof said. Later, he added that Biden is “someone who also I think will make, and is making, people comfortable all around the country.”
The second fundraiser was held at the home of David A. Steinberg, founder and CEO of marketing firm Zeta Global Corp. Michael Blackson, an actor and comedian who was a guest of the host, caught Biden’s attention with his calf-length red, purple and gold Versace puffer coat.
“The key to success is hiring and working with people smarter than you and who can dress a hell of a lot better than you,” Biden said after spotting two former staffers as well as Blackson in the crowd of 65 donors. “I tell you what man, we ought to go on the road together,” he told Blackson.
After he wrapped up, he headed out back on the road for a late-night return to Iowa -- without Blackson or his colorful coat.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-avoiding-companies-with-minimum-federal-levy
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@Joedaman55
Scott Adams overreacting here.
Do you think that I feel embarrassed that for a year I made a prediction which turned out to be, I think we can all agree, the worst prediction anybody has ever made? Because it turns out---and I didn't know this at the time of the prediction---that Kamala Harris has no skills at all for being a politician. None! You know, some people have some skills---they're good at some stuff but they're not good at other things---Kamala Harris doesn't have any skills for being a candidate for president. Now I didn't see that coming. Because at the time that I called her I hadn't really seen her in public much and when I did she was doing lawyerly things like at Senate hearings where she's sitting at a seat acting like a prosecutor. Now, when Kamala Harris acts like a prosecutor in her role as Senator, I saw that and I said, "huh, that's pretty good!" Pretty good.
So I said to myself, "well if she can do that, probably she can take those skills into the realm of being a candidate." She could not take those skills into the realm of being a candidate. And I say this with no ambiguity whatsoever. She's the worst candidate I've ever seen in my lifetime. By far the worst. Not even close. You can't even think of anybody. You literally can't think of any candidate who did as bad a job as she did.
Starts at 2:10
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Mentallyillary is the gift that keeps on giving. She prevented biden from standing in 2016 and never stopped prat falling at every hurdle theteafter. So slow joe runs now and his name recognition means most other moderates were over shadowed and did not gain any traction.
Putin owes her a debt of gratitude.
Putin owes her a debt of gratitude.
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Booker continues his desperate attempt to save his campaign by going on all the MSM programs that will have him. Also plays the race card in response to Harris dropping out, saying it's "problematic" that everyone on the debate stage will be white.
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Mark Ruffalo endorses Bernard Sanders for president:
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Mark Ruffalo endorses Bernard Sanders for president:
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I mean you’ve seen Bernie’s message for the last five years and nothing’s changed. I just think he’s not interesting enough to cover because he hasn’t changed anything. You know exactly what you’ll get from Bernie and you know who his people that support him are.
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Nice, I’ll listen to Adams when I drive home from work today. Based on the brief things I saw at the 2:10 mark, Harris was a great bet even though she lost. She was undervalued, she just collapsed, choked and didn’t improve; you wouldn’t predict that most times with someone with her talent stack.
The biggest thing I misjudged about her is that I thought she was a natural fighter and would always go down swinging for her beliefs, I assumed this based on interviews, prosecution videos and speeches. She has one giant flaw and it’s that she’s a quitter when things get too hard and her move is to pander instead of taking issues head on. She didn’t start exhibiting these qualities until like the 3rd debate. I think the pressure got to her and showed everyone her holes.
You can’t win the toughest job on earth with a quitter attitude and I’m glad she was seeded out in the process. Also, Scott is way over dramatic sometimes, “Win Bigly” is an awesome book I recommend to everyone interested in understanding politics but his Part 5 chapter is one of the worst chapters I’ve ever read in a book. This feels like another Chapter 5 to me.
You can see his consistency as somewhat of an issue there, but he's put out tons of new specific and detailed plans over the past few months that are hardly covered, like his racial justice plan and his housing plan. He's also been breaking from the establishment pack in speaking out on various new issues that come up, like trying to save minor league baseball and calling the situation in Bolivia a coup. MSM never seems to care much. But hey, maybe Pete has a new campaign dance, that's news.
Let’s talk about line movement for a minute.
My only general election bet right now is $500 with a coworker that Trump will lose (evens=value at this point). But I eventually want to put some more money online.
REGARDLESS of what you think about the election, how do you think the line will move?
You pretty much have to accept at this point that the pro-Trump bet will not be based on approval ratings, polling data, or recent election data. That’s normally the basis for political betting lines, but not in this case. In a typical situation, Trump might at least a moderate underdog. But the assumption from the right is that this data is wrong or underestimating his base’s turnout. Even if the eventual dem candidate is polling at +20, the only thing I can anticipate that could give Trump bettors hesitation is an economic downturn. While that’s a possible occurrence, I’m not going to bet on that happening over the next year.
My thinking is that bettors tend to lean conservative. This is based purely on my personal assumptions, I don’t really know. I think the right-wing sentiment that Trump will win will hold up for many more months (at the least). If I’m going to bet against Trump, would it be worth it to hold my bet in hopes the dems could shift to be an underdog?
My only general election bet right now is $500 with a coworker that Trump will lose (evens=value at this point). But I eventually want to put some more money online.
REGARDLESS of what you think about the election, how do you think the line will move?
You pretty much have to accept at this point that the pro-Trump bet will not be based on approval ratings, polling data, or recent election data. That’s normally the basis for political betting lines, but not in this case. In a typical situation, Trump might at least a moderate underdog. But the assumption from the right is that this data is wrong or underestimating his base’s turnout. Even if the eventual dem candidate is polling at +20, the only thing I can anticipate that could give Trump bettors hesitation is an economic downturn. While that’s a possible occurrence, I’m not going to bet on that happening over the next year.
My thinking is that bettors tend to lean conservative. This is based purely on my personal assumptions, I don’t really know. I think the right-wing sentiment that Trump will win will hold up for many more months (at the least). If I’m going to bet against Trump, would it be worth it to hold my bet in hopes the dems could shift to be an underdog?
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^the only thing that will stop his re election is a downturn in the economy or an obama like opponent. And whether you believe it or not trump's handling of economy is good and he has left the dnc primary process a smoking pile of rubble, and he has only just begun his ops there. You can only cringe inside looking at the shambolic mess it is.
+150 has so much value. I am thinking of another 20u on it and cash out some profit when the line becomes more realistic at -200.
+150 has so much value. I am thinking of another 20u on it and cash out some profit when the line becomes more realistic at -200.
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Well I guess there's better odds when you bet Trump pre-primary lol. There's not a "will Trump lose" line in my book, just winning party at -115 each.
That makes me think though, if Trump is at +150 right now, would the eventual dem candidate have much worse odds than -115?
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That’s absolutely correct and my point, he may change details here and there around but his vision for how the country should run hasn’t (he’s always broke from the establishment). Big picture, there is nothing new and it would bore the hell out of people talking about details. Any media organization would lose money covering that stuff.
What are the alternatives though? Biden and Buttigieg keeping the decades-old talking points about slow, incremental change and status quo politics? Because that's what they seem to do. They spend tons of time trashing progressive policies and talking points without having those candidates or surrogates on to discuss them.
