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Political Betting Thread

She did it because Trump was offering a donation to charity lol, which he pretended didn't happen

Yeah, she thought it would make her a hero in the eyes of the Democrat base, but she made an ass of herself instead, and given Trump an enjoyable line of attack should she win the primary, as I hope. None of this was a big deal to anyone until she made it a big deal.
 
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She is as much as an outsider as Macron in France if you are familiar with him. She is a fake as anyone else up there. If she was a genuine outsider voice, the media would be undermining her like they do with Gabbard and Yang. Yang said they turned his microphone off for periods of the debate, that's how rigged it is. I learned my lesson with Obama, any candidate that gets so much positive spin from the MSM is not going to do anything to change the status quo.

She is just a puppet, a faux-populist to dangle in front of voters in the hope of beating Trump.

It's just my take in the end. And I have put my money where my mouth is, so what will be will be. I did hedge with Harris, that proved to be a good move. I don't think Harris will make it to the end though, contrary to the discussion above.

I have exchange bets and will sell my positions when I think the profit is enough. I think I got great odds.

PS A less waffly answer to your question is that I think she is getting a lot of positive media coverage and fluff pieces to build her up, this is why I think she has been selected to win. I originally thought it would be Harris, but she is a scumbag who will fall apart under scrutiny, and more of a loose cannon that Warrn imo anyway.
Macron an outsider? Huh? Macron was passed around as a sex toy at elite parties when he was a child. Now that he is older he is a Rothschild puppet. He has been running around elite circles for years.
 
Macron an outsider? Huh? Macron was passed around as a sex toy at elite parties when he was a child. Now that he is older he is a Rothschild puppet. He has been running around elite circles for years.
That is what I mean. Warren is not an outsider, she will be passed off as an outsider, similarly to how macron was.
 
It's not insulting to Native Americans, but it makes Warren look like an idiot bc she claims to be one and made a big deal of it, or used to anyway, so people have to play the race card to try and deflect from its bite, not very successfully either.

Some ethnicities have unfair advantages over others because of the wealth that was created by their ancestors (I.e blacks were slaves until the end of the civil war and they had a bunch of disadvantages in labor markets very similar to Native Americans who had to adopt to a capitalistic world and were driven from some of their valuable land assets). In a way to even this out, the United States created programs/laws to reduce the wealth gap (equal opportunity act, federal funding, etc).

Warren is trying to identify herself in this directory as a Native American and not Native American and white. This signals that she’s trying to maximize her return by creating a minority status that doesn’t exist for personal gain (basically fraud).

Some people won’t see this as an issue and some will. On those that see this as an issue, they will see this as fraud and exploiting society for personal gain. Given the way Democrats view people exploiting government systems, this crushes her identity she’s trying to portray as she’s against government abuse (especially corporation loopholes) and she herself exploited the government (not saying this is what occurred but this will be the optics). Once voter groups can’t identify with you, you’re done as a candidate. I think this would be less of an issue if she was a Republican candidate as they tend to be more free market thinking and would see this as taking advantages the government allowed similar to Republican viewpoints on Trump’s tax payments and his exploiting of tax loopholes.

Oh yeah I completely get why ppl would be offended by Warren. I meant the (probable mock) outrage at trump for using the term pocahontas lol
 
Oh yeah I completely get why ppl would be offended by Warren. I meant the (probable mock) outrage at trump for using the term pocahontas lol

A bunch of big Native American groups condemned him for it. It's just using a popularly-known NA figure as a substitute for one's race/heritage instead of just speaking about it normally, I guess. So they see it as a slur. I could be wrong, but I'd feel uncomfortable going up to a NA person and calling them Pocahontas lol. You can disagree, but the reaction outside the Trump base to him using the word has been pretty bad. Trump's attacked the issue in a way that can further alienate people outside his established supporters, and I really don't see how that's going to be much of a plus for him in a two-way race. Warren at least tried to make Trump give money to a NA charity by proving an amount of ancestry and has made a lot of inroads with those communities that Trump hasn't.

In the end, when talking about the bigger picture, you have to take a more objective look at things. Would it be better if Warren just explained herself better, apologized for ever using that identity, and left it at that? Probably, yeah. But will this really turn NA voters (as a majority) against their interests and move undecided voters to Trump when it's stacked up against Trump's much more numerous scandals (including using a possible slur within this same issue)? Probably not. Generally, it will only be used as ammo for people who weren't gonna switch from team Trump in the first place.
 
Oh yeah I completely get why ppl would be offended by Warren. I meant the (probable mock) outrage at trump for using the term pocahontas lol

Most of my Native buddies think it’s hilarious. Some super sensitive Native Americans might take offense but most I’ve talked to think it’s funny.

If you see someone attack Warren on this and their numbers go down and hers go up, I’ll be way off on this.

I think you’ll see her get attacked on this (probably next debate) as she gains momentum and when the attack occurs, she’ll lose momentum, dip, and become irrelevant in the Democratic Primary.
 
A bunch of big Native American groups condemned him for it. It's just using a popularly-known NA figure as a substitute for one's race/heritage instead of just speaking about it normally, I guess. So they see it as a slur. I could be wrong, but I'd feel uncomfortable going up to a NA person and calling them Pocahontas lol. You can disagree, but the reaction outside the Trump base to him using the word has been pretty bad. Trump's attacked the issue in a way that can further alienate people outside his established supporters, and I really don't see how that's going to be much of a plus for him in a two-way race. Warren at least tried to make Trump give money to a NA charity by proving an amount of ancestry and has made a lot of inroads with those communities that Trump hasn't.

In the end, when talking about the bigger picture, you have to take a more objective look at things. Would it be better if Warren just explained herself better, apologized for ever using that identity, and left it at that? Probably, yeah. But will this really turn NA voters (as a majority) against their interests and move undecided voters to Trump when it's stacked up against Trump's much more numerous scandals (including using a possible slur within this same issue)? Probably not. Generally, it will only be used as ammo for people who weren't gonna switch from team Trump in the first place.

You are 100% right calling a Native American person Pocohantes would be insulting; however, most people see her as a white person who posed as a Native American. That’s why this actually helps Trump and probably helps the Democrat who attacks her as the don’t view it as an attack on a Native American rather a poser.
 
Things are playing out as expected for my bets, or slightly better. Biden has slipped significantly but is still in the lead. The anti-Sanders vote is split among Warren, Harris, and Biden. I expect Biden to continue slipping. I think a significant (>15%) of the bleeding will go to Sanders. Similar for Harris, particularly among black voters. I also think Biden's continued fall will embolden more candidates (especially "moderates" like Bennet) to stay in the race. I think Warren has peaked.

At some point before the end of the year, many of the undecideds---feeling disappointed in the top four---will start flocking to Buttigieg.

I think Harris's odds are way over-inflated. In retrospect I definitely should have waited to place my bets to secure better odds. Oh well.

============
Current Bookmaker odds:

Kamala Harris +200
Joseph Biden +315
Elizabeth Warren +420
Bernard Sanders +670
Peter Buttigieg +720
Andrew Yang +2100
....


My current bets:

April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
 
Breaking! joe Biden is planning to drop out of 2020 Presidential race!

 
Breaking! joe Biden is planning to drop out of 2020 Presidential race!


Come on, don't post crap here.


=====


For those of us (including me) who have been predicting Biden's demise, recent polls don't look good for us! Biden's RCP average is back up to 27.6%. Also, yesterday's The Hill/Harris X poll looks horrible for my Buttigieg bet!

I still think I will profit here.



My current bets:

April 15........Bernard Sanders............. +410.............$2439.02
May 19.........Peter Buttigieg.................+550............ $1818.18
 
I actually think Kamala’s odds got better after the recent tweets Trump did. I wasn’t expecting Trump to so aggressively push Democrats to impeach him but I think he is really pushing it. The base will go for who’s really strong on impeaching Trump (which was not the headline for the upcoming debate prior to the tweet). Kamala will go strongest on this attack and continue her momentum.

Clever move by Trump as impeachment talks hurt Democrat’s in the generally election.
 
Come on, don't post crap here.


=====


For those of us (including me) who have been predicting Biden's demise, recent polls don't look good for us! Biden's RCP average is back up to 27.6%. Also, yesterday's The Hill/Harris X poll looks horrible for my Buttigieg bet!

I still think I will profit here.



My current bets:

April 15........Bernard Sanders............. +410.............$2439.02
May 19.........Peter Buttigieg.................+550............ $1818.18

Alex has been right about a number of political subjects for years. I bet Trump to win the Presidency at various odds because of Alex's show. The odds that I was able to get for Trump were between +350 to +1050. You obviously don't understand that the polls fed to the bewildered herd are not accurate. Alex was the first to report about Hillary's health problems. He was correct. The man doesn't have a crystal ball. He has sources all over DC & various gov't agencies.
 
I actually think Kamala’s odds got better after the recent tweets Trump did. I wasn’t expecting Trump to so aggressively push Democrats to impeach him but I think he is really pushing it. The base will go for who’s really strong on impeaching Trump (which was not the headline for the upcoming debate prior to the tweet). Kamala will go strongest on this attack and continue her momentum.

Clever move by Trump as impeachment talks hurt Democrat’s in the generally election.

He is one of the shrewdest politicians I have ever seen. His recent tweets, while indefensible, will achieve their purposes.

Firstly, he has thrown a dead cat on the table to distract from whatever it is he doesn't want to talk about, secondly, he has decided who will be the faces of the DNC brand for the 2020 election. 3-4 unpopular USA hating whackjobs talking crap.

I think its time to look at the odds of the RNC controlling the presidency, the congress and the senate in 2021.
 
Not sure if Republicans will control the House but the Senate is theirs until 2022, I think a few tossup states are on the ballot again then.
 
He is one of the shrewdest politicians I have ever seen. His recent tweets, while indefensible, will achieve their purposes.

Firstly, he has thrown a dead cat on the table to distract from whatever it is he doesn't want to talk about, secondly, he has decided who will be the faces of the DNC brand for the 2020 election. 3-4 unpopular USA hating whackjobs talking crap.

I think its time to look at the odds of the RNC controlling the presidency, the congress and the senate in 2021.

I don't find Trump to be a very shrewd politician. 2020 will be tight or a loss for him. He is very skilled at 1) revving up his base 2) attacking the opposition. His problem is that he angers a lot of people, including independents.

The House will be interesting. A lot of Republican incumbents are retiring. I haven't dug into the Senate, but I have read that the map is favorable for Republicans again.

I actually think Kamala’s odds got better after the recent tweets Trump did. I wasn’t expecting Trump to so aggressively push Democrats to impeach him but I think he is really pushing it. The base will go for who’s really strong on impeaching Trump (which was not the headline for the upcoming debate prior to the tweet). Kamala will go strongest on this attack and continue her momentum.

Clever move by Trump as impeachment talks hurt Democrat’s in the generally election.

They won't impeach, imo. Pelosi is too smart for that. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think Trump mishandled the "catfight". With the "go back home" tweet, he's uniting the opposition while he could have allowed the rift to deepen.
 
I don't find Trump to be a very shrewd politician. 2020 will be tight or a loss for him. He is very skilled at 1) revving up his base 2) attacking the opposition. His problem is that he angers a lot of people, including independents.

The House will be interesting. A lot of Republican incumbents are retiring. I haven't dug into the Senate, but I have read that the map is favorable for Republicans again.



They won't impeach, imo. Pelosi is too smart for that. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think Trump mishandled the "catfight". With the "go back home" tweet, he's uniting the opposition while he could have allowed the rift to deepen.

Agreed, Pelosi will not impeach as she is trying to not lose the House in 2020 and attempting to impeach Trump will do that. AOC is the face of the Democratic Party (whether people realize it or not) and the base wants to impeach Trump; also, the base will be voting the most in the Democratic Primary. Kamala’s taken the strongest position on that and the newest, most important issue for more Democrats will be to impeach Trump (some were already there but this moved some people). Voters make choices more on emotion and Trump just put them into overdrive again.

You’re right, it did unify the opposition and that’s the problem. The AOC branch of the wing is too left and financially insane for most of America so most were glad when it had Biden (more moderate views). Democrats are starting to realize he’s not the voice, neither is Schumer or Pelosi, it’s AOC (Obama didn’t create a good successor, was supposed to be Hillary for a little bit). By Trump strengthening her brand in the Democratic Party it is weakening the Democratic brand nationally.

Trump’s verbiage was brilliant because it frames the other side to a position about whether they truly dislike the current America or their position is miscommunicated. They used the classic racist comeback which is inefficient with certain voters and didn’t answer the question visually. Thus, people will visually in the back of their mind, start associating those four with disliking America (whether it is logical or not). Since the DNC is more associated with AOC and the other three, the Democratic Party becomes a party that dislikes current America just by association (again, not saying it is logical, just what people who aren’t apart of the Democratic culture will associate them in the back of their minds). Trump is moving them exactly where he wants them similar to the release the taxes issue.
 
I don't find Trump to be a very shrewd politician. 2020 will be tight or a loss for him. He is very skilled at 1) revving up his base 2) attacking the opposition. His problem is that he angers a lot of people, including independents.

The House will be interesting. A lot of Republican incumbents are retiring. I haven't dug into the Senate, but I have read that the map is favorable for Republicans again.



They won't impeach, imo. Pelosi is too smart for that. Maybe I'm missing something, but I think Trump mishandled the "catfight". With the "go back home" tweet, he's uniting the opposition while he could have allowed the rift to deepen.

I would disagree. Uniting the dnc around these whackos is exactly what he wants to do. Besides that the whacko faction hates Pelosi and the old guard, and still do. The old guard were trying to disassociate themselves from the whacko fringe element, now Trump has strengthened the position of whacko fringe and made them the face if the DNC. The man is a political genius.
 
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