Political Betting Thread

[onC]

Weird, the odds you listed are significantly different from what I'm seeing at Betfair. Also, your bets are incomprehensible to me. What does "bernie +£84" mean?

He profits 84£ if Bernie wins, based on his current exposure.

 

[Discjockeyshtud]

Betting on the Dem nomination after what they did to Bernie in 2016 is worse than betting on Pride FC.

That said, i don't understand why more people aren't talking about Andrew Yang.

Yang can play the immigrant card which the others will try to hammer Trump on during the debate and make Yang stand out, he seems to communicate his economic platform better than any other candidate. He has also come out against breaking up big tech who are hugely influential to brainwashed dem voters and they might throw their support behind him driving his influence moving into 2020.

 

[Roads55]

Weird, the odds you listed are significantly different from what I'm seeing at Betfair. Also, your bets are incomprehensible to me. What does "bernie +£84" mean?

The lay at Bookmaker is not public knowledge. I imagine this nomination is going to be similar to the Republicans last time in terms of total lay.

I think the claim that Buttigieg had a bad week is overblown. A bunch of screaming nutjobs yelled at him. He seemed to keep his cool, took some time off the trail and promised to investigate the shooting fully. I haven't seen any of the "opinion makers" criticize him for it yet, and I am skeptical that black voters are going to turn against him because of it.

your probably looking at betfair sportsbook which they run along the exchange. and yeah like onC said, that's just the position i stand to win or lose atm if those candidates were to win.

https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

 

[waiguoren]

Betting on the Dem nomination after what they did to Bernie in 2016 is worse than betting on Pride FC.

That said, i don't understand why more people aren't talking about Andrew Yang.

Yang can play the immigrant card which the others will try to hammer Trump on during the debate and make Yang stand out, he seems to communicate his economic platform better than any other candidate. He has also come out against breaking up big tech who are hugely influential to brainwashed dem voters and they might throw their support behind him driving his influence moving into 2020.

I mean, you're free to take him at +1903....

In my opinion, politics at this level is mostly a show. Yang is not a showman, ergo he is screwed. Also opponents could pick at him for having a thin CV.

 

[Roads55]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/24/buttigieg-shooting-police-south-bend-1380240

 

[trident]

Most likely scenario: Biden wins the nomination

Second most likely: Bidens gaffes and general creepiness catch up to him and Bernie takes it

Third: Harris mounts a strong last minute surge while Biden flails and Bernie fades

Buttigieg and the rest have no real chance.

Remember, it's a game of optics. You have to think of this as a dog show. After all the shampooing brushing prancing and dancing, you get a moment to choose.

 

[rev0lver]

I mean, you're free to take him at +1903....

In my opinion, politics at this level is mostly a show. Yang is not a showman, ergo he is screwed. Also opponents could pick at him for having a thin CV.

imo Yang supporters overestimate his appeal. He's extremely popular in some online circles. Outside of that, hardly anyone pays him much attention. I think his platform can also get a bit more complicated for the progressive wings when it's broken down, like UBI replacing some social programs instead of supplementing them. Not saying who's right or wrong here, just that his different brand of progressivism might not automatically capture the left. It's not just about his charisma or showmanship. Personally, I think his campaign is more about bringing new ideas and issues into the conversation than it is about him actually winning the nomination.

I'm very interested to see how he does this week, especially as he's sharing the stage with 4 of the current top 5. Imo it's just already getting late for anyone polling at 1-2%. I wouldn't think of touching anyone at those numbers without a better reason to.

 

[rev0lver]

Most likely scenario: Biden wins the nomination

Second most likely: Bidens gaffes and general creepiness catch up to him and Bernie takes it

Third: Harris mounts a strong last minute surge while Biden flails and Bernie fades

Buttigieg and the rest have no real chance.

Remember, it's a game of optics. You have to think of this as a dog show. After all the shampooing brushing prancing and dancing, you get a moment to choose.

If Biden slips, which is a very real possibility as he keeps giving people reasons to dislike him, the establishment types will probably start pushing someone else. That'll probably be between Buttigieg and Harris, MAYBE Beto or Booker.

 

[trident]

If Biden slips, which is a very real possibility as he keeps giving people reasons to dislike him, the establishment types will probably start pushing someone else. That'll probably be between Buttigieg and Harris, MAYBE Beto or Booker.

Am I the only one who thinks a gay man with "butt" in his name is bad optics?

 

[rev0lver]

Am I the only one who thinks a gay man with "butt" in his name is bad optics?

I mean... I don't disagree lol. But for being a gay guy with a name that sounds like buttchug, who's only been mayor of a mid-sized city, he's done incredibly well in this race.

 

[trident]

I mean... I don't disagree lol. But for being a gay guy with a name that sounds like buttchug, who's only been mayor of a mid-sized city, he's done incredibly well in this race.

Fuckin A I'll give him that

Also Barack Hussein didnt stop him, but I've heard church ladies make fun of it so I dunno how far he can go

 

[Roads55]

First debate live now, just started,

 

[Roads55]

God this is a load of shit, what a terrible format.

warren probably doing the best, she's coming across likable, and talks the talk

 

[Joedaman55]

God this is a load of shit, what a terrible format.

warren probably doing the best, she's coming across likable, and talks the talk

Lol they’re all pretty bad, Delaney has a good line in the beginning about healthcare and his father, everything else is all blah.

Personally, I think Warren has looked pretty bad and is just rambling all over the place. Castro I’d say has been the best and is saying the only things I’ve remembered besides that Delaney answer.

 

[Roads55]

tulsi just straight up murdered tim ryan haha his face lol

 

[Joedaman55]

tulsi just straight up murdered tim ryan haha his face lol

Lol yep, bad response by him.

 

[Roads55]

Lol they’re all pretty bad, Delaney has a good line in the beginning about healthcare and his father, everything else is all blah.

Personally, I think Warren has looked pretty bad and is just rambling all over the place. Castro I’d say has been the best and is saying the only things I’ve remembered besides that Delaney answer.

yeah castro had a good showing tbf

 

[Joedaman55]

Well, pretty bad debate imo, only memorable things are a few Castro answers, Delaney having one good healthcare response, and gabbard torching Tim Ryan (but not doing anything else).

Only things that’ll change is Castro going up a little bit, Warren down a bit, and a bunch dropping out soon.

Best debater was Castro and no one really else

Worst debaters were Tim Ryan, Beto, and De Blasio.

 

[rev0lver]

Personally, I think Castro and Beto both just screamed "I'm a politician" while not saying much of anything of substance.
I think Warren and Booker performed the best. De Blasio did surprisingly well, but he's a shit candidate and barely qualified for the debate in the first place.

 

[waiguoren]

I felt that Castro had the strongest night. His strategy of going after O'Rourke was very smart since they occupy a similar lane but Castro is the actual Latino/Hispanic.

I feel O'Rourke had a poor night overall.

I think Delaney did well enough to stick around a little longer.

I think Booker had a good night.

I think Warren won't gain or lose much after tonight.

Klobuchar had a bad night and is done imo.

Everyone else is irrelevant. Actually, Castro is irrelevant too but since his night was so strong he'll be around for a while.

I think the debates will get successively nastier as people realize they are going nowhere fast.