Political Betting Thread

As someone with a big bet at Trump at decent-ish odds I also think that Hillary will win, but there's some positive signs coming up.

Bunch of reports of Trump outperforming in North Carolina, the last IBD/TIPP poll showing Trump ahead (apparently that's the one who's been preforming best over the last five or so elections), the RCP electorate map being very even (no toss up map showing it 272-266 or something Clinton, although with some extra edge for her due to what states needs to be taken by Trump etc) and bloody Pennsylvania which I've been ranting about for months having Clinton up only 1.9% on average with Trump gaining fast, he was down something like 8.5% just a couple of weeks ago.

Gonna wait up and watch this until you can call Pennsylvania and Michigan I think, if Trump upsets either one of those (and he's only down 3.5 in Michigan on average with some polls showing him slightly ahead) I think he takes it.

As far as the shy-vote-syndrome I think there's possibly a slight edge there, but no where near the level of Brexit or even worse the Sweden Democrats (who over preforms polls in every god damn election and tends to do it more then I think which has costed me money lol).
 
Slohog said:
As someone with a big bet at Trump at decent-ish odds I also think that Hillary will win, but there's some positive signs coming up.

Bunch of reports of Trump outperforming in North Carolina, the last IBD/TIPP poll showing Trump ahead (apparently that's the one who's been preforming best over the last five or so elections), the RCP electorate map being very even (no toss up map showing it 272-266 or something Clinton, although with some extra edge for her due to what states needs to be taken by Trump etc) and bloody Pennsylvania which I've been ranting about for months having Clinton up only 1.9% on average with Trump gaining fast, he was down something like 8.5% just a couple of weeks ago.

Gonna wait up and watch this until you can call Pennsylvania and Michigan I think, if Trump upsets either one of those (and he's only down 3.5 in Michigan on average with some polls showing him slightly ahead) I think he takes it.

As far as the shy-vote-syndrome I think there's possibly a slight edge there, but no where near the level of Brexit or even worse the Sweden Democrats (who over preforms polls in every god damn election and tends to do it more then I think which has costed me money lol).
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Yup, I've adjusted the shy-voter effect variable in my analysis because we're talking about americans and it seems people are not that shy to say they support trump to pollsters(ok, I know... this is my subjective opinion). It's hilarious how extremly sweden democrats have been underrated in every god damn election. I made bank twice in a row thanks to lolbad polls. However, I'm guessing the shy-voter effect have diminished greatly in sweden and SD won't be nearly as underrated in the upcoming election but that's a discussion for another day.
 
Slightly offtopic but for any Swedish persons who wants to follow the election from a slightly more right-wing perspective I'd like to recommend:

It's Radio Bubb.la, really pro Trump which is probably the only pro-Trump non retarded news service in Sweden.
 
im hearing reports it's not looking great for trump in florida. the whole thing could be called pretty quickly if trump loses there
 
Hillary now at -900.

I think I have her for $14 @ -140 on one of my bets. A couple hundred total.

Time to hedge or wait it out?
 
Tebowned said:
Hillary now at -900.

I think I have her for $14 @ -140 on one of my bets. A couple hundred total.

Time to hedge or wait it out?
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Are you really worried she won't win? I'm sitting here thinking my Trump +99.5 electoral votes is in jeopardy LOL. And really not liking my Trump +74.5.

I cannot see Trump winning this election.
 
mkess101 said:
Are you really worried she won't win? I'm sitting here thinking my Trump +99.5 electoral votes is in jeopardy LOL. And really not liking my Trump +74.5.

I cannot see Trump winning this election.
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I'm 99% sure she's gonna win but I like guaranteed money.
 
39% of the total vote in florida is non white according to abc
 
Tebowned said:
I'm 99% sure she's gonna win but I like guaranteed money.
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I'm not anti hedging at all but there's plenty of times where it's just giving $ away. Your call but jeez if you're that sure she wins (and I am in agreement with you) seems like throwing $ away to hedge here.
 
lloks like game over for trump in florida and thus the whole election pretty much
 
Took + odds on this getting called after 11:15 est. Not looking good. My only bet that sided with Trump.
 
Roads55 said:
lloks like game over for trump in florida and thus the whole election pretty much
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Source??

Bloomberg says it's currently 48.8% Hillary and 48.2% Trump (52.7% of votes reported)

Edit: now both 48.5%
 
IdunnoWhoCares said:
Source??

Bloomberg says it's currently 48.8% Hillary and 48.2% Trump (52.7% of votes reported)

Edit: now both 48.5%
Click to expand...

After Bush/Gore they'll be hesitant to call it until they are absolutely sure but a lot of it has to do with WHERE in FL the votes have been counted. If the precincts yet to report are Dem strongholds, Trump's chances are extremely slim. I think that's where it's at right now. I don't think it's over, but it doesn't look good for Trump.
 
IdunnoWhoCares said:
Source??

Bloomberg says it's currently 48.8% Hillary and 48.2% Trump (52.7% of votes reported)

Edit: now both 48.5%
Click to expand...

nyt have trump winning by 28...yes 28 votes with 60% and early vote favors hillary, her price went down to close to -1000 but it's tightenin g again now
 
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