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Political Betting Thread

CNN's line in the town hall debate was that it was their partner that must have fed Brazile the question. BUT the primary debate with Sanders they had no partner. I am very certain CNN will not investigate this. And more certain that CNN will pay no price for this and will hold more debates in the future.

This is why when Trump talks about things being rigged so many side with him. If the HRC team is willing to accept question and answers before a debate. What else are they willing to do. And at what lengths will the "media" go to help a side.
 
why in the hell the odds have barely changed in the last day or 2 I do not know, currently:

Hillary 1.34
trump 4.1
 
another point to consider is that a lot of what trump is saying now has a lot of seeds of truth when looked at by the general public. this is a far cry from the majority of his campaign because his narrative is now aligning with everyone seeing clinton for what she has done and not what she says
 
waiguoren said:
I wrote this in May. People were laughing at me.
Click to expand...

People were even laughing at someone betting Trump at crazy odds.

CNNs top story this morning.....TRUMP WILL NOT RELEASE TAX RECORDS!!
 
What are the chances of a dark horse winning the election or in other words neither Trump or Hillary winning?

Follow up question: How do you ballots look down there? How many people will you actually get to choose from? Media coverage always makes it sound like you literally only have 2 choices.
 
LEMONZEST said:
What are the chances of a dark horse winning the election or in other words neither Trump or Hillary winning?

Follow up question: How do you ballots look down there? How many people will you actually get to choose from? Media coverage always makes it sound like you literally only have 2 choices.
Click to expand...

The slim, slim chance of a 3rd party surge was there months ago when there were question marks about either major candidate lasting to this point. The two larger third party candidates have done absolutely nothing with their scant moments of spotlight to help themselves.

This site appears to have a list of most candidates but beyond the top 4, it's a mish-mash per state:
http://www.politics1.com/p2016.htm

Last I checked, the by-state odds were gone on 5Dimes. I did bet "Neither candidate passes 50% popular vote" at -210 and think that's a really nice line.

Not Clinton +300 still has value but I arbitraged Trump at +500 earlier anyway and am resisting gambling against the higher powers.
 
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Thoughts on Evan McMullin wins Utah +225? Absolutely shitty limits, though
 
from paddypower's twitter account, those are eye opening stats right there:

Paddy Power Politics‏@pppolitics
In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh.

yet the market is not shortening on trump despite the new drops and the mainstream media headlines announcing the polls are very close now. dare I add more to trump... he's nearly 3/1 again
CwMK2aEW8AAof1X.jpg


EDIT: paddypower had a merger with betfair earlier in the year and currently there has been £91,153,284 matched on betfair exchange, some of this will be bookmakers laying off the extra liability on betfair as they are taking large amounts of bets. since paddypower is one of the larger bookies over here even before the merger, we can assume they have had a lot of action on this over the last couple days, which makes this figure of 91% very surprising.
 
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Roads55 said:
from paddypower's twitter account, those are eye opening stats right there:

Paddy Power Politics‏@pppolitics
In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh.

yet the market is not shortening on trump despite the new drops and the mainstream media headlines announcing the polls are very close now. dare I add more to trump... he's nearly 3/1 again
CwMK2aEW8AAof1X.jpg


EDIT: paddypower had a merger with betfair earlier in the year and currently there has been £91,153,284 matched on betfair exchange, some of this will be bookmakers laying off the extra liability on betfair as they are taking large amounts of bets. since paddypower is one of the larger bookies over here even before the merger, we can assume they have had a lot of action on this over the last couple days, which makes this figure of 91% very surprising.
Click to expand...

"US Politics - US Presidential Election 2016 - Hillary Clinton @ 2.00 (Pending)

You benefited from our Early Payout to the value of €150.50"


now let my trump bets hit aswell
 
They probably have a fair bit of bets on Trump from earlier though, not an expert at all on this particular topic but shouldn't the public be fairly huge on her given the fact that the media has declared her the victor a few times per week for the last year or so?
 
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Slohog said:
They probably have a fair bit of bets on Hillary from earlier though, not an expert at all on this particular topic but shouldn't the public be fairly huge on her given the fact that the media has declared her the victor a few times per week for the last year or so?
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I normally feel betting odds give a fairly accurate representation on politics, but historically, I feel they've undervalued favorites. People love taking a punt on the underdog for president. Obama was the biggest bet I've ever had by a large margin last election.
 
Oblivian said:
I normally feel betting odds give a fairly accurate representation on politics, but historically, I feel they've undervalued favorites. People love taking a punt on the underdog for president. Obama was the biggest bet I've ever had by a large margin last election.
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Damn it meant I had action on Trump, I'm a bit under the weather.

Yea everyone and their mother was on Obama the last time around, but I don't think that election was as one sided in the media and in general hatred of either candidate. I dunno, thought.
 
I stayed away from betting this one until recently. I'd be extremely surprised at this point if Trump wins.
 
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