Political Betting Thread

mkess101 said:
I don't think it's religious sectarian oppression/persecution. I know that narrative exists, I just don't buy it. As SBJJ mentioned Assad isn't super fundamentalist.

What he is (as most despots are) is addicted to power. And he will use any means to squash those who speak against him.

I mean, you guys understand his regime has been documented as horrible on human rights even well before the uprisings right? I think it's a perfectly valid argument to say that doesn't warrant outside involvement in his overthrow (and one I might even agree with) but we don't need to act like he's not a complete thug to hold that opinion (and to SBJJ's credit he acknowledged as much). Saying we should butt out and leave it alone shouldn't have to devolve into defending a guy who's pretty shitty to plenty of his own populace.
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So the US and the West (and Aus) subverted the UNSC illegally under the pretext were fighting ISIS, then when the Russians and SAA steamroll ISIS the goal changes to regime change because Assad wants power and has engaged in "human rights abuses" and the entire world is supposed to ignore the blatant sleight of hand attempt.

Using your argument to illegally invade Syria has no credibility as the US openly deals with Al Qaida and countries like Saudi Arabia who have worse human rights abuses internally and abroad (such as Yemen).

The problem is Trump was right about Obama and Hillary, they simply got outplayed by Russia.

The Hillary-induced destruction in Libya nixed any chance of a no fly zone in Syria getting UN approval, as soon as the US publically announced "covert" strikes on SAA the Russians had the US humiliatingly back down when they introduced s300s

Now the mainstream media is all Helloooooo Mosul
 
Discjockeyshtud said:
So the US and the West (and Aus) subverted the UNSC illegally under the pretext were fighting ISIS, then when the Russians and SAA steamroll ISIS the goal changes to regime change because Assad wants power and has engaged in "human rights abuses" and the entire world is supposed to ignore the blatant sleight of hand attempt.

Using your argument to illegally invade Syria has no credibility as the US openly deals with Al Qaida and countries like Saudi Arabia who have worse human rights abuses internally and abroad (such as Yemen).

The problem is Trump was right about Obama and Hillary, they simply got outplayed by Russia.

The Hillary-induced destruction in Libya nixed any chance of a no fly zone in Syria getting UN approval, as soon as the US publically announced "covert" strikes on SAA the Russians had the US humiliatingly back down when they introduced s300s

Now the mainstream media is all Helloooooo Mosul
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Where in "my argument" do I talk about it being justification for aiding in the overthrow of Assad? In fact, I actually said I may well agree with NOT aiding in his ouster.

My point was that we don't have to try to pretend he's not a thug that oppresses his own people just because we aren't advocating for foreign nations to intervene.

You don't have to sell me on how feckless this administration has been. Obama had his chance to stand up to Putin. He waited until it was too late, and even then it was half assed. I never said our meddling wasn't about fucking with Russia. Still doesn't mean Assad isn't an assbag.

And of course the U.S. (and NATO and all western developed nations) pick and choose where they intervene when governments oppress their people. That's not news. I just wonder why we have to pretend shitheads aren't shitheads in order to justify not using force against them. Can't we just say "This guy is awful, we realize it, but at this time it isn't in the majority's best interests for us to intervene"? Why isn't that a good enough explanation?
 
mkess101 said:
Where in "my argument" do I talk about it being justification for aiding in the overthrow of Assad? In fact, I actually said I may well agree with NOT aiding in his ouster.

My point was that we don't have to try to pretend he's not a thug that oppresses his own people just because we aren't advocating for foreign nations to intervene.

You don't have to sell me on how feckless this administration has been. Obama had his chance to stand up to Putin. He waited until it was too late, and even then it was half assed. I never said our meddling wasn't about fucking with Russia. Still doesn't mean Assad isn't an assbag.

And of course the U.S. (and NATO and all western developed nations) pick and choose where they intervene when governments oppress their people. That's not news. I just wonder why we have to pretend shitheads aren't shitheads in order to justify not using force against them. Can't we just say "This guy is awful, we realize it, but at this time it isn't in the majority's best interests for us to intervene"? Why isn't that a good enough explanation?
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In case you missed it the title of the thread is about the US Election, you're arguing that Assad is a baddie and Hillary who agrees wants to overthrow him.

I'm arguing, "derrrp no shit he's bad but noone reckons overthrowing him is a good idea anymore as Obama and Hillary aren't as smart as Putin and bad things will happen".

You're all like "but guys why are you sayin Assads good when he's totally bad"

Noone in here said they want Assad as a babysitter, or that he's a good guy
 
Jeez. When did anyone say Assad was a nice guy.

But once again. Nice guys get it in the ass in that region.

Mkess. Why is it so hard to fathom that democracy doesn't work when a significant portion of a population wants to behead others.

U think Syria would be better of ruled by Al gore? How would he keep extremists in check? Welfare payments?
 
Discjockeyshtud said:
In case you missed it the title of the thread is about the US Election, you're arguing that Assad is a baddie and Hillary who agrees wants to overthrow him.

I'm arguing, "derrrp no shit he's bad but noone reckons overthrowing him is a good idea anymore as Obama and Hillary aren't as smart as Putin and bad things will happen".

You're all like "but guys why are you sayin Assads good when he's totally bad"

Noone in here said they want Assad as a babysitter, or that he's a good guy
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Your comically simple depiction of both points of view aside, my point was simply to be honest when discussing this stuff. You jumped into this conversation immediately to point out Assad's lack of religious extremism in his views. Why is that? Because someone tried to paint him that way? Who cares?

Everyone (even Obama and Hillary, for all their tunnel vision) know who the actual religious extremists in that conflict are. You, I, and every other person that has a hint of a clue knows that "religious extremism" has zero to do with why Obama or Hillary would try to remove Assad. FFS, this is the Obama who doesn't even want to use the words "Islamic Terrorists". This administration has other motives. Yet you felt the need to point it out despite how obvious it is to us all how insignificant it is to any actual policy makers. You think Obama is sitting in the Oval office and picks up a media report that says Assad is targeting a certain sect of Islam and says "Holy shit, this guy as radical as it gets!" Come on. Obama and Hillary would never get my vote, but let's at least be realistic. They've not once used that as a justification for military action against him to my knowledge (that he's a religious radical), because they know it's bogus.

So why even bring that up? I'm glad you acknowledge the guy is a thug, but jumping in to say how he's a moderate when it comes to his religious views sure had the feel of defending him. Or whatever, maybe you actually thought there were people in this discussion or that make policy that think he's another Bin Laden but also a head of state. Whatever. Maybe completely butting out in the region is the way to go. Hard to say given how small the world has become and that it's been a long time since we were that isolationist. Maybe it would make things much better, maybe there would be other consequences we haven't thought of. Not sure.

You are right though, this is pretty off topic for the actual thread, and I'll take most of the blame. I pointed out the insane amount of violations that groups like Human Rights Watch have documented (even prior to the Arab Spring and the major unrest in Syria) and SBJJ and I went off on this tangent.

I guess take comfort knowing I'd never vote for Hillary, even though she'll probably win.
 
SBJJ said:
Jeez. When did anyone say Assad was a nice guy.

But once again. Nice guys get it in the ass in that region.

Mkess. Why is it so hard to fathom that democracy doesn't work when a significant portion of a population wants to behead others.

U think Syria would be better of ruled by Al gore? How would he keep extremists in check? Welfare payments?
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I think at some point there needs to be a middle ground between "nice guy" and "jails and tortures anyone who dare criticize him". After the crazies started their rampage, I don't really take issue with Assad's tactics. My problem is the guy was oppressing plenty of his populace before that, and nobody was beheading anyone back then. But...maybe he just saw it coming and was trying to get a head start. Not sure.

Yes, that region is messed up. Like I said in my last post, maybe just ignoring everything over there is the way to go. Will never happen, but ideally maybe we'd try that for awhile? A little isolationism?

LOL @ Al Gore. You realize I have never voted Dem and never will, right?
 
So moving on from the "Assad is a shithead but we need to leave him be" discussion, @waiguoren and any others I want to get your thoughts on a tiny flier on Evan McMullin at +50000 to win the presidency. I read an article the other day (syndicated--think Jonah Goldberg?) detailing his potential longshot path to winning. Basically if Hillary and Trump fall short of 270 because McMullin wins Utah, etc. then it goes to the house for a vote on who's prez? Something like that, it's a rule that I don't think has ever come close to being applied.

He's a ridiculous longshot of course, it would have to a totally bonkers situation but at +50000...man this has been the wackiest election season I can remember. And we had one with hanging chads and lawsuits and all kinds of craziness not that long ago. I mean, is there any chance at all here?
 
mkess101 said:
So moving on from the "Assad is a shithead but we need to leave him be" discussion, @waiguoren and any others I want to get your thoughts on a tiny flier on Evan McMullin at +50000 to win the presidency. I read an article the other day (syndicated--think Jonah Goldberg?) detailing his potential longshot path to winning. Basically if Hillary and Trump fall short of 270 because McMullin wins Utah, etc. then it goes to the house for a vote on who's prez? Something like that, it's a rule that I don't think has ever come close to being applied.

He's a ridiculous longshot of course, it would have to a totally bonkers situation but at +50000...man this has been the wackiest election season I can remember. And we had one with hanging chads and lawsuits and all kinds of craziness not that long ago. I mean, is there any chance at all here?
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All value still on Trump +290. This FBI stuff continues to develop in ways not good for Hillary (speeches cancelled, Abedin secluded in her NY apt, rumors NYPD forced FBIs hand). Feels like she is hanging on by a thread right now, and rumors of more stuff to come to swirling.
 
Jesus Mkess. Are u aware Syria was one of the most moderate countries in the Middle East. I'm just not sure where u get your info. U keep painting him like he's the second coming of Hitler. U really couldn't be more wrong on this.

Syria was a heaven compared to Most middle eastern countries for minorities within the country.

Sad thing is that this is so easy to research yet you keep posting the same wrong stuff over and over. I mean it's not even debatable. Syria was a MODERATE country before this attempted overthrow.

I just used Gore because he was first on my mind. I can tell u are not a dem. U seem like a Neocon with doubts actually.
 
Joseph Budden said:
All value still on Trump +290. This FBI stuff continues to develop in ways not good for Hillary (speeches cancelled, Abedin secluded in her NY apt, rumors NYPD forced FBIs hand). Feels like she is hanging on by a thread right now, and rumors of more stuff to come to swirling.
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I agree. I'm actually surprised he's still that high. But I have enoughon all this already.
 
mkess101 said:
So moving on from the "Assad is a shithead but we need to leave him be" discussion, @waiguoren and any others I want to get your thoughts on a tiny flier on Evan McMullin at +50000 to win the presidency. I read an article the other day (syndicated--think Jonah Goldberg?) detailing his potential longshot path to winning. Basically if Hillary and Trump fall short of 270 because McMullin wins Utah, etc. then it goes to the house for a vote on who's prez? Something like that, it's a rule that I don't think has ever come close to being applied.

He's a ridiculous longshot of course, it would have to a totally bonkers situation but at +50000...man this has been the wackiest election season I can remember. And we had one with hanging chads and lawsuits and all kinds of craziness not that long ago. I mean, is there any chance at all here?
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I can create a reasonable electoral map in which Trump gets 264, Clinton 268, and McMullin 6. Maybe this kind of situation occurs 20% of the time. Given that this happens, what is the chance that the House chooses McMullin? I say about 5%. Such behavior would destroy the Republican Party. Therefore I rate the chances of McMullin becoming the next prez at about 1%.

Edit: Apparently I can't do arithmetic. +50000 implies about a .2% chance. I think the chance is about 1%, so I guess there is a tiny bit of value.
 
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took trump Electoral College Vote H'cap +74.5 +190
 
mkess101 said:
So moving on from the "Assad is a shithead but we need to leave him be" discussion, @waiguoren and any others I want to get your thoughts on a tiny flier on Evan McMullin at +50000 to win the presidency. I read an article the other day (syndicated--think Jonah Goldberg?) detailing his potential longshot path to winning. Basically if Hillary and Trump fall short of 270 because McMullin wins Utah, etc. then it goes to the house for a vote on who's prez? Something like that, it's a rule that I don't think has ever come close to being applied.

He's a ridiculous longshot of course, it would have to a totally bonkers situation but at +50000...man this has been the wackiest election season I can remember. And we had one with hanging chads and lawsuits and all kinds of craziness not that long ago. I mean, is there any chance at all here?
Click to expand...

+50000 is terrible value plain and simple, he is 1000/1 on the exchanges.
 
SBJJ said:
Jesus Mkess. Are u aware Syria was one of the most moderate countries in the Middle East. I'm just not sure where u get your info. U keep painting him like he's the second coming of Hitler. U really couldn't be more wrong on this.

Syria was a heaven compared to Most middle eastern countries for minorities within the country.

Sad thing is that this is so easy to research yet you keep posting the same wrong stuff over and over. I mean it's not even debatable. Syria was a MODERATE country before this attempted overthrow.

I just used Gore because he was first on my mind. I can tell u are not a dem. U seem like a Neocon with doubts actually.
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Nah not a neocon or any other label you'd like to try to use.

I was trying to move on from this, but I honestly don't know what to tell you if you think Assad isn't complicit as well in how bad things have gotten in Syria. Documented human rights violations by Assad's regime in 2011 before any attempted overthrow (protests against the lack of freedoms and the everlasting "state of emergency", but no attempted takeover). This includes the torture of children, medical personnel, etc. By Assad's security forces. Beating a political cartoonist and threatening to kill his family if he didn't stop drawing cartoons? Was that cartoonist part of ISIL? Or just a guy who didn't like how Assad ruled?

Yes, the normal citizens who want more freedom have been highjacked (or were intermingled with) terrorists and thugs doing awful things. But initially, almost entirely nonviolent protests were met with violent military force by Assad's security forces.

LOL seriously just google "Assad war crimes" or "Assad crimes against humanity" and see what you come up with. There is a literal MOUNTAIN of documented evidence of his regime being every bit as brutal (albeit with different motivations) than the scum he's fighting. This isn't debatable. If you actually deny this stuff I honestly don't know what to tell you. It's all there, verified by a whole bunch of different sources, countries, organizations.

Again, might as well move on. You and the other guy think Assad is a necessary evil or lesser of two evils or whatever and that's fine. I think the region is totally F'd if that's the type of choices they have and I'm not sure what the best course of action (or inaction) is.
 
Any thoughts on Gary Johnson over/under 9.999% popular votes in New Mexico?
 
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