Political Betting Thread

[waiguoren]

Waig. U familiar with the NBC poll. I'm reading some pretty shady stuff about it

A little familiar. They do cell phones + landlines, which is good.

Their likely voter model might be too simple for this election---it only considers people who voted in 2012/2014 and 18-24 year olds who say they are interested in voting. I know people who don't usually vote and are well older than 24 but will vote for Trump this time.

But their LV outcome is only +1 relative to their RV outcome (former Clinton +11, latter Clinton +10). So even if LV swings Trump's way, I wouldn't expect a 10-point gap to be erased.

Other questions surround their demographic weighting, which I think is proprietary.

What shady stuff did you read about the poll?

Even if we don't like the methodology, we can look at the trend. Shortly before the first debate, when Trump was strong, their LV model had Clinton +6. So this is a 5% decline for Trump. That trend is consistent with the LA Times trend line, which had Trump +6 before the debate and now has Trump +1.

 

[waiguoren]

Would probably want to see a few more NV polls before hitting

New CBS NV poll has Clinton +6. That's why I wrote this...

 

[waiguoren]

I sense Trump momentum on the upswing again. The leaks will damage Clinton. Not sure if I would bite at +500.

 

[Scythe]

I arbitraged with the +500, it's annoying to waste a few hundred bucks but those odds probably can't get much better.

Trump Ohio +250 and Iowa +100 both seem decent to me. Right now Clinton is overvalued in the primaries (as she's so strongly favored to win overall) so there are a few decent Trump spots.

 

[bruthead]

Trump -137 at William Hill for Utah.

 

[waiguoren]

I arbitraged with the +500, it's annoying to waste a few hundred bucks but those odds probably can't get much better.

Trump Ohio +250 and Iowa +100 both seem decent to me. Right now Clinton is overvalued in the primaries (as she's so strongly favored to win overall) so there are a few decent Trump spots.

Ohio +250?? Massive value there for me, I expect him to win.

 

[Sham5916910]

Can get Iowa +150 and Ohio +200. Gonna hit one what one is more likely?

 

[waiguoren]

Iowa more likely. imo he wins Iowa 80%, Ohio 60%

 

[waiguoren]

I arbitraged with the +500, it's annoying to waste a few hundred bucks but those odds probably can't get much better.

Trump Ohio +250 and Iowa +100 both seem decent to me. Right now Clinton is overvalued in the primaries (as she's so strongly favored to win overall) so there are a few decent Trump spots.

By primaries I assume you mean individual states, unless I don't know shit about our country, which is certainly possible

 

[Scythe]

We're doing the primaries again, because the whole thing was rigged (just me misspeaking).

 

[LEMONZEST]

1/2 unit on trump wont say obama administration

 

[waiguoren]

1/2 unit on trump wont say obama administration

odds?

 

[Scythe]

It's -150 that he won't say it.

Either candidate saying "Bernie Sanders" has worked out for me in the past two, but it's now up to -320 rather than near even. Trump loves mentioning him, but I'll pass.

I took Ronald Reagan at +250, Bill Clinton at -350, and "Liar" at -150; all can be said by either one.

 

[Brick Top]

Damn you guys really are degens

 

[PuertoRican]

It's -150 that he won't say it.

Either candidate saying "Bernie Sanders" has worked out for me in the past two, but it's now up to -320 rather than near even. Trump loves mentioning him, but I'll pass.

I took Ronald Reagan at +250, Bill Clinton at -350, and "Liar" at -150; all can be said by either one.

-150 on NOT Obama Administration sounds good.

I don't really like Ronald Reagan +250 and "Liar" -150. Trump focused on calling Hillary a liar in the previous debate, and I think he'll relax on calling her a liar again in the 3rd debate, just so he leaves a good impression in the minds of the viewers (people generally remember the last debate the most). As for Ronald Reagan, what part of the debate do you think they'll bring up Reagan's name?

 

[Scythe]

I feel as if Trump drops the "Reagan" when talking economic policy pretty often. I strictly like it as it's +250. You could be right about "Liar", but I'm not assuming Trump's coming out to play the nice guy.

Even if Trump's playing nice, he's still going to hit any number of lowblows.

 

[PuertoRican]

I feel as if Trump drops the "Reagan" when talking economic policy pretty often. I strictly like it as it's +250. You could be right about "Liar", but I'm not assuming Trump's coming out to play the nice guy.

Even if Trump's playing nice, he's still going to hit any number of lowblows.

True.

Forgot to mention that your bet of Bill Clinton -350 sounds good as well. I just get scared of paying that much juice on any type of prop.

12 minutes in, and both candidates are keeping things relatively civil.

 

[PuertoRican]

Hillary went into left field with the open boarder question. She brought up Putin, and then Trump took the bate.

Trump called her a liar at 36 minutes in. Congrats.

 

[Scythe]

Hilldawg dropped the Reagan for me. Expected that to come from Trump but I'll take it.

Sanders came up too, oh well.

 

[PuertoRican]

Hilldawg dropped the Reagan for me. Expected that to come from Trump but I'll take it.

Sanders came up too, oh well.

Did she?

I've been eating snacks the entire time. Must've missed it while I was stuffing my face.