Political Betting Thread

[rille31]

Jack are you voting for Trump?

 

[SBJJ]

I suggest not feeding the troll in this thread

 

[waiguoren]

I suggest not feeding the troll in this thread

The village idiot served an important role in many European cultures. Jack is just doing his societal duty. We should applaud him for the humor he brings.

 

[rille31]

Electoral College Vote H'cap on the exchange sites

Donald Trump +24.5 - 1.6

trump +49.5 - 1.68

any value?

 

[rille31]

I suggest not feeding the troll in this thread

 

[Barkus]

Hillary is still the frontrunner but the gap is narrowing. 538 is now currently projecting Hillary at a 56% chance of winning the election based just on polls only.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

A couple X factors

Hillary's supporters lack enthusiasm. Her rallies are often only getting a few hundred people showing up, her tweets sometimes don't even break 1000 retweets and her new book has only sold 3000 copies in 2 weeks. I think this lack of enthusiasm more likely to be reflected on voting day than phone polls, because her supporters will have to have enough motivation to actually get off the couch and vote.

The shy supporter effect. This is probably a big factor on why the Brexit polls projected remain to win. Many Trump supporters likely fear a similar social stigma that Brexit voters faced and probably don't admit to supporting Trump with family members in earshot.

Obama is now campaigning hard for Hillary, that may save her ass, because unlike Hillary Obama can actually get people excited.

 

[trident]

.... to the presidency by telling him to keep his damn mouth shut and letting Clinton falter.

Lol I think Clinton has the same plan

 

[trident]

New Monmouth poll

Iowa: Trump +8

Iowa has matched the national popular vote in every election since 1988.

My honest opinion is the democrat bigwigs will rally hard for Clinton in the last few weeks to get the unenthused out to the polls, relying hard on Trump as the bogeyman.

Also keep in mind the real agencies that run this country, the DoD, CIA etc have been vocal in their concern about Trump.

I'd wager US elections are more fixed than UFC fights, most elections are can crushers and the ones that aren't have a judge conference before the scorecards are made public.

I'd be careful betting on Trump.

 

[waiguoren]

Maine is TIED in the latest poll. The winner of Maine has won the popular vote in every election since 1976.

 

[waiguoren]

Electoral College Vote H'cap on the exchange sites

Donald Trump +24.5 - 1.6

trump +49.5 - 1.68

any value?

I must be misunderstanding. Shouldn't the odds be better on +24.5 than on +49.5?

 

[rille31]

I must be misunderstanding. Shouldn't the odds be better on +24.5 than on +49.5?

yeah you would think so but the line is set on how people are betting and people arent always that smart

 

[rille31]

I must be misunderstanding. Shouldn't the odds be better on +24.5 than on +49.5?

the +24.5 is +105 , 2.05 at the moment

 

[Jae Gibbz]

There are a lot of interesting props for tonight's debate on 5d

 

[Barkus]

There are a lot of interesting props for tonight's debate on 5d

Yeah, small limits though, so it'll just be for fun. So far I'm on neither candidate mentioning NFL or Monday Night Football.

 

[waiguoren]

Well boys, we've almost made it to the finish line. The race is tied in both the electoral college and the national popular vote. I also suspect the polls to have a pro-Clinton bias this time, so I think Trump is already in the lead.

Our Trump bets are looking good for the moment. At this point, Trump has the easier path to victory. The left has painted him as a racist misogynist psychopath, so as long as he appears normal during the debates he won't lose them. Perhaps the bigger challenge is to see if Clinton can stay healthy during three long debates. Also wikileaks will make another damning release within the next 40 days.

 

[Scythe]

It's too bad these goofy debate bets are so limited.

Think Trump saying "Wall Street" first at -140 and "Excuse Me" first at -150 are very likely to hit.

Also, either candidate saying Bernie Sanders at -145? I'm in.

 

[Roads55]

im more interested to see this bizzare freak show than the weekend's fights (ufc/rizzin)

 

[Scythe]

2 out of 3, not bad. Surprised Hillary mentioned Wall Street first.

 

[Barkus]

The NFL and MNF bets we're easy hits, worth the juice.

Trump's performance was a bit of a shit show as expected. The questions were clearly unbalanced against him, but he didn't parry them as well as he could have. Hillary didn't do particularly great, she probably didn't win many people over, but at the same time she didn't say anything that would turn many people off, pretty much the M.O. for Hillary.

 

[PuertoRican]

The NFL and MNF bets we're easy hits, worth the juice.

Trump's performance was a bit of a shit show as expected. The questions were clearly unbalanced against him, but he didn't parry them as well as he could have. Hillary didn't do particularly great, she probably didn't win many people over, but at the same time she didn't say anything that would turn many people off, pretty much the M.O. for Hillary.

You have no stamina, muthafucka~