Political Betting Thread
- Thread starter GearSolidMetal
- Start date
Soliciting a foreign government for help with your political campaign is a violation of campaign finance laws. The specific law states money or a "thing of value", which has been interpreted to include political capital with dirt on your opponents. Even the FEC chair has made this clear. A specific crime doesn't even need to be committed for impeachment too, as laid out by Lindsey Graham. They could've very easily done this same thing with obstruction as laid out in the Mueller report. There's little question that Trump has broken laws here or otherwise. Pelosi just saw this as a better opportunity.
And like I said, there's going to be more evidence coming out for the possible quid pro quo part. Now we're seeing some. They predicated having a WH meeting with Zelensky on Ukraine promising these investigations, so that could be a count in itself. When one of our diplomats expressed concern about Trump withholding Ukraine aid for help with his political campaign, our EU ambassador tried to make a statement of innocence, and told him to stop texting about it and to speak on the phone. Looks like we've hit the tip of an iceberg here.
They actually didn't hold an inquiry vote for Andrew Johnson's impeachment. There's no real purpose for it and there's no requirement for it, and a clear majority in the house already does support the inquiry (at a minimum). If anything, Pelosi just wants to expedite the process. They're on a tighter timeline here than the republicans were with Bill Clinton.
You can surely have your own opinions on the situation, but support for impeachment only seems to be growing, both among congresspeople and among the public.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
Ok. So its a fantasy based on interpretive dance.
I mean in terms of optics. It looks very partisan without the vote, and weak tbh.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
Biden making a convincing case why Trump is unique and necessary.
He is doing something no president has ever done.
Thats why i like trump. This is a one off deal. We will not see the likes of him again. Well, unless don jr goes for it.
He is doing something no president has ever done.
Thats why i like trump. This is a one off deal. We will not see the likes of him again. Well, unless don jr goes for it.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Wow. Aggregate polling puts Biden 2.2% points ahead of Warren, Ukrainegate has caused his campaign to implode.
Given that Sanders had a heart attack, it must be over for him too. I think his support will head for Yang or Gabbard.
The stage is getting set for Clunkton to join the circus.
Wow. Aggregate polling puts Biden 2.2% points ahead of Warren, Ukrainegate has caused his campaign to implode.
Given that Sanders had a heart attack, it must be over for him too. I think his support will head for Yang or Gabbard.
The stage is getting set for Clunkton to join the circus.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2012
- Messages
- 15,423
- Reaction score
- 15
Within a couple of days Bisen and Sanders are basically done reminds me of western movie with each man flanking Warren then getting shot down. Shes happy.
Per the impeachment. The law is pretty clear it's not a fantasy interpretation. Trump pushed too far. This one might bite him. But hes going muddy up Dems along the way bringing in the whole practice of nepotism under scrutiny (isnt Pelosis son on Ukraine co too?)
Ita going to get ugly.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
I meant him being convicted of breaking campaign finance law, that's just fantasy. It's his job to enlist foreign countries to investigate corruption of US nationals, how can anyone prove otherwise?
As for impeachment itself, its obviously going happen. But this is going to hurt the DNC more than trump. He has gotten his base fired up, and the people who hate the system too.
OTOH the self-indulgent nepotistic and corrupt practices of the political establishment pushing for impeachment will get exposed and will keep their voters at home. Who can vote for these mutts?
IMO opinion this is classic Trump strategy, take damage to destroy your opponents.
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2018
- Messages
- 3,316
- Reaction score
- 2,442
No. It’s not.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
When it comes to national security it is.
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2012
- Messages
- 15,423
- Reaction score
- 15
I agree with a lot of this and had my doubts when this first broke but the lawnisnpretty clear. I dont really see the Republicans voting for ousture in the Senate so it likely wont go all the way BUT it is clear he broke the law and it is not clear the Bidens did (though I have long suspected Biden being dirty).
If Trump is doing this on ourpose i think he radically misinterpreted his standings. Its an unnecessary move if its his plan.
From what I can tell, this could hurt him. Being worried about Biden shows how far off the mark he is. He should have felt comfortable going into this reelection.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
I'm finding impossible to understand how it is illegal for a sitting president to investigate alleged corruption of a former vice president because that former VP will campaign to be the president if he wins the nomination. There is nothing clear about it to me. It is murky for Trump to ask, but illegal?
I don't know Biden broke any laws, but given the clear conflict of interest, there should be an investigation.
It's hard to know what is necessary or not necessary, as we don't have all the information. What I do see is that Biden taking a tumble, and Trump, so far, maintaining his support. Even with Biden's huge flaws, Warren is easier to beat; she has advocated for positions in thr primary she can't walk back for a broader appeal. There room opening for another 'centrist' ie corporatist dem to swoop in though, so the chaos factor can bring unexpected changes.
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2012
- Messages
- 15,423
- Reaction score
- 15
Yeah youre not allowed to engage a foreign entity against a political rival.
The idea Trump was seeking to root out corruption "in general" and Bidens son was just by happenstance "the one" doesnt hold water.
He withheld congressional approved funds for what is looking pretty clearly as a QPQ.
That's not routine "examining for corruption".
I dont have a dog in this fight and for sure the Dems have been an embarrassment how the have dealt with Trump, but from what I can see it's pretty clear and it's clear to enough others (like the CIA GC) as to give it merit. This isnt ambiguous bullshit like the Mueller investigation.
Looks to me like Trump either made a mistake in judgement big time here or he is seeking to make this race about who is dirtier, not better.
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2018
- Messages
- 3,316
- Reaction score
- 2,442
No one's actually buying the argument that he was just trying to look into corruption. Out of all the American citizens out there, he chose to ask for dirt on the one who was the frontrunner in the democratic nomination. On something that the Bidens weren't even under investigation for and was just a loose theory. Our own diplomatic officials weren't buying that, our intelligence community wasn't buying that, even Tucker Carlson is starting to stop buying that. It's a very flimsy defense. And now we're starting to see evidence on quid pro quo to make it even worse.
I still strongly believe economic populism works best for the democrats here. I'm actually surprised how well she's been doing in general election polls when we're only in the middle of the dem primary campaigns. Warren, Sanders, and to an extent Yang, have the biggest appeals to Trump's biggest voting demographics, and pull out a ton of otherwise apathetic voters. Both the centrists and the progressives are going to lose on social issues, gun issues, etc anyway to people who aren't on their side about it. But the progressives can appeal very strongly to poor and working class economic issues a lot more so than the centrists. And if one of them wins the nomination, the mainstream democrats will get on their side anyway to defeat Trump.
As far as this impeachment ordeal affecting people though, I really don't see how it won't hurt Trump more. It might energize his hardcore base, but not everyone outside of that. He's making himself look worse and worse every day. Imo he also needs to GROW his current support to win, not maintain it, and there's virtually no chance this helps him there. His average approval rating has taken about a 2 point hit just since this info started coming out. Imo Biden was on his way down anyway and I don't think this scandal has bit him as much as you seem to think. Biden has no comeback factor in his campaign, he has no way to draw new people to his side, so as soon as Warren started catching up (which was happening pre-Ukraine story) it was an inevitability.
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2017
- Messages
- 2,366
- Reaction score
- 776
Well, I don't see how you can avoid looking into the activities of the Bidens, whether you think its politically motivated or not. It's not Trump's fault they are corrupt.
Ukraine did not know funds were withheld until a month after the conversation, and they had no issues in the opening of investigations, so thats the end of QPQ. This has been confirmed by Ukraine and the US ambassador there.
The idea that Biden's corruption is Trump's problem if he investigates, just bc he is running for the same office, is nonsensical. You can't deny rooting out this kind of corruption is in the public interest.
You guys act like a VP being corrupt is not a big deal.
Not necessarily, he only has to be more popular than his rival and get his vote out, and depress the vote of the rival. This achieves those goals.
Yeah, in your opinion.
Its been much lower, and this is well within statistical noise. And I did not say that it won't damage Trump, but it damages his opponents more, and so far has played out, whatever your opinion.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2012
- Messages
- 15,423
- Reaction score
- 15
Dude THATS the point. Its politically motivated and that's illegal and that's the law.
You cant shake that because whatabout.....
Latest posts
-
-
Economy Should ENGLISH proficiency be a REQUIREMENT for migrants?- Latest: GreatSaintGuillotine
-
